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MC Stan

@mc-stan.org
380 followers 18 following 40 posts

Expressive probabilistic programming language for writing statistical models. Fast Bayesian inference. Interfaces for Python, Julia, R, and the Unix shell. A rich ecosystem of tools for validation and visualization. Home mc-stan.org

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MC Stan @mc-stan.org · 17/09/2026
- New laplace_latent_solve(_tol) for getting the mean and covariance (Cholesky) of the modal normal approximation - The compiler has fewer dependencies, with a smaller binary size and improved speeds.
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MC Stan @mc-stan.org · 17/09/2026
- New functions to_vector_array, to_row_vector_array, and new overloads for to_matrix for arrays of (row-)vectors. - New poisson_binomial distribution - The same .stanfunctions can be #included multiple times without leading to errors about duplicated function definitions.
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MC Stan @mc-stan.org · 17/09/2026
Release of CmdStan 2.40, including new Stan Math, core Stan, and Stanc, is now available! Blog post with new features blog.mc-stan.org/2026/09/16/r... Highlights - integrate_1d_double_exponential, a variadic version of old integrate_1d - integrate_1d_gauss_kronrod, a different quadrature rule ...
blog.mc-stan.org
Release of CmdStan 2.40
We are very happy to announce that the 2.40.0 release of CmdStan is now available on Github! As usual, the release of CmdStan is accompanied by new releases of Stan Math, core Stan, and Stanc3. Thi…
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MC Stan @mc-stan.org · 20/08/2026
StanCon 2026 conference part is over and all the talks are available at StanCon 2026 playlist!
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MC Stan @mc-stan.org · 20/08/2026
And the final uploaded talk in the StanCon playlist - John Ashley Burgoyne: Incorporating Response Times into Item Response Models
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MC Stan @mc-stan.org · 20/08/2026
- Soham Mukherjee: Latent variable estimation with composite Hilbert space Gaussian processes - Steve Bronder and Brian Ward: Stan developer talk
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MC Stan @mc-stan.org · 20/08/2026
- Ville Laitinen: An Introduction to Probabilistic Data Analysis with Stan on the Carpentries Platform - Zeno Romero: Probabilistic Matrix Completion for Chemical Engineering Applications ...
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MC Stan @mc-stan.org · 20/08/2026
- Aleksi Lahtinen: Probabilistic Ordinal Regression for Hierarchical Survey Data - Brian Ward: Understanding Stan so you can write JAX ...
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MC Stan @mc-stan.org · 20/08/2026
StanCon 2026 day 3 talks uploaded (link to playlist in the first post of this thread) - Fredrik Ronquist: Universal probabilistic programming for phylogenetics: challenges and opportunities - Jakob Torgander: simplexmcmc: an auxiliary-variable framework for mixed continuous-discrete posterior ...
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MC Stan @mc-stan.org · 19/08/2026
StanCon 2026 afternoon talks upload - Bob Carpenter "Within-orbit adaptive leapfrog sampler (WALNUTS) with continuous Nutpie adaptation" - Chandler Ross "Nonparametric SDEs for stability landscapes from sparse microbiome data" - Nils Rudi "Luck, skill, and the battle of the sexes: analyzing tennis"
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MC Stan @mc-stan.org · 19/08/2026
- Collin Cademartori "Variance deltas: Interactive visualizations for explaining Bayesian uncertainty" - Tim M. Szewczyk "Blending ensemble dispersal modelling with dynamic stage-structured population models: A coherent framework for sea lice infestation dynamics"
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MC Stan @mc-stan.org · 19/08/2026
- Pranav Sanke (on behalf of Jesse Piburn) "Embedding geographic concepts of place in probabilistic modelling of temporal activity patterns using Bayesian Dirichlet regression" - Anna Elisabeth Riha "To select or not to select - predictively consistent priors instead of model selection" ...
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MC Stan @mc-stan.org · 19/08/2026
StanCon 2026 Wednesday morning talks uploaded - @kaitejohnson9.bsky.social "Joint modelling to infer transmission and evolutionary dynamics of infectious diseases from multiple different data sources" - Jonas Wallin "Hierarchical Riemannian manifold Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithms" ...
youtube.com
StanCon 2026 Uppsala - YouTube
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MC Stan @mc-stan.org · 18/08/2026
Anna Dreber's keynote talk "(Predicting) replications and generalizability of (mainly experimental) social science results" is now available
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MC Stan @mc-stan.org · 18/08/2026
Talks by @javieraguilar.bsky.social, @spinkney.bsky.social and Nikolas Siccha uploaded
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MC Stan @mc-stan.org · 18/08/2026
There is now StanCon 2026 Uppsala playlist www.youtube.com/playlist?lis... At the moment talks by @mjskay.com, @aseyboldt.bsky.social, @paulbuerkner.com, @charlesm993.bsky.social are up, and we'll keep uploading more during the week
youtube.com
StanCon 2026 Uppsala - YouTube
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Aki Vehtari @avehtari.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
@mjskay.com starting the StanCon 2026 talks with "Systematic uncertainty visualization design (and its foundation in probabilistic models)" All talks are recorded and will be made available after the conference
Photo of a person in front of a lecture hall
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Aki Vehtari @avehtari.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
@florencebockting.bsky.social's guide "Contributing to Stan A Developer’s Guide to the Core, Interfaces, and First Contributions" at florence-bockting.github.io/stancon-cont...
florence-bockting.github.io
Contributing to Stan
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Aki Vehtari @avehtari.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
@florencebockting.bsky.social starting the StanCon 2026 tutorial: "Contributing to Stan: A Developer’s Guide to the Core, Interfaces, and First Contributions" to be followed later by @brianward.dev and @bronder.deals
Photo of a small lecture auditorium
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MC Stan @mc-stan.org · 11/08/2026
Call for StanCon 2027+ If you think you would like to organize the next StanCon (after Uppsala), click the link and read more! discourse.mc-stan.org/t/call-for-s...
discourse.mc-stan.org
Call for StanCon 2027+
We are looking for volunteers to organize the next StanCons for 2027 (and beyond!) If you are interested in making a proposal (or even just discussing the possibility of making one), please consider ...
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Måns Magnusson @mansmag.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Final day to register for StanCon 2026: 10th of August! Looking forward to a great conference! discourse.mc-stan.org/t/final-day-...
discourse.mc-stan.org
Final day to register for StanCon 2026 the 10th of August (AoE)
Hi all! Also, the 10th of August (AoE) is the final deadline to register for StanCon 2026. After that we will need to set the final participation list for the practicalities of the conference. The p...
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Matthijs Hollanders @matthollanders.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Turns out continuous time hidden Markov model-step selection functions (HMM-SSF) with unequal sampling intervals sample like a dream in @mc-stan.org🔥
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Sam Abbott @seabbs.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
Great to see {epidist} and so @paulbuerkner.com {brms} and @mc-stan.org getting used as part of the reporting of the clinical characteristics of the Bundibugyo Virus outbreak in the DRC.
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Matti Vihola @mattivihola.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
Our paper (with Alain Durmus, Samuel Gruffaz, Miika Kailas and Eero Saksman) on the ergodicity of dynamic path length HMC algorithms appeared in the AAP: doi.org/10.1214/25-A.... The results accommodate the 'biased progressive sampling' path selection used in @mc-stan.org.
doi.org
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Rich Ramsey @richramseyphd.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
Have you ever tried to combine Positron, renv, brms/CmdStan, Quarto, and Docker into a reproducible scientific workflow in R? I didn't think so. Here is my attempt. #openscience #rstats #positron inspired by: @andrew.heiss.phd @matti.vuorre.com @mc-stan.org github.com/rich-ramsey/...
github.com
GitHub - rich-ramsey/positron-workflow: This project presents a minimal reproducible workflow template for cognitive neuroscience research using Positron, R, Bayesian modelling, and Docker.
This project presents a minimal reproducible workflow template for cognitive neuroscience research using Positron, R, Bayesian modelling, and Docker. - rich-ramsey/positron-workflow
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Måns Magnusson @mansmag.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
🔥 StanCon 2026 Early Bird deadline today (AoE) 🔥 discourse.mc-stan.org/t/stancon-20...
discourse.mc-stan.org
StanCon 2026 deadline today! (AoE)
Hi all, Today is the last day to register for StanCon 2026 at the early-bird rate and order the StanCon 2026 t-shirt. We hope to see you all in Uppsala from the 17th to the 21st of August! More info...
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Aki Vehtari @avehtari.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
Having seen the submitted talks and posters, StanCon 2026 is going to be awesome!
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arXiv stat.CO Computation @statco-bot.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
Trevor Campbell, Jonathan H. Huggins, Kyurae Kim, Charles C. Margossian: Large-scale empirical tuning and comparison of default optimizers for variational inference arxiv.org/abs/2606.07841 arxiv.org/pdf/2606.07841 arxiv.org/html/2606.07841
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Aki Vehtari @avehtari.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
Two recommendations for cmdstanr in case studies: 1) use sample(..., refresh=0) to avoid 80 lines of MCMC progress reporting 2) cmdstanr::print_stan_file() in Quarto with output asis to get color formatting ``` #| output: asis print_stan_file(stan_file) ``` e.g., avehtari.github.io/Bayesian-Wor...
print_stan_file(bioassay_stan_file)

data {
  int<lower=0> J;  
  vector[J] x;
  array[J] int<lower=0> N;
  array[J] int<lower=0, upper=N> y;
}
parameters {
  real a;
  real<lower=0> b;
}
model {
  {a, b} ~ normal(0, 5);   
  y ~ binomial_logit(N, a + b * x);
}
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MC Stan @mc-stan.org · 05/06/2026
3) Contributing to Stan: A Developer’s Guide to the Core, Interfaces, and First Contributions: Would you like to contribute a new feature to Stan, or make your first contribution to the Stan ecosystem? By @avehtari.bsky.social, @brianward.dev, @florencebockting.bsky.social, @bronder.deals
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MC Stan @mc-stan.org · 05/06/2026
2) Bayesian model diagnostics: Workflows and software tools: emphasizing the iterative nature of model building, fitting, evaluation, and critique. R packages posterior, bayesplot, and priorsense, and the Python package ArviZ. By @aloctavodia.bsky.social, @teemusailynoja.bsky.social, Noa Kallioinen
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MC Stan @mc-stan.org · 05/06/2026
StanCon tutorials: 1) Full-day introduction to applied Bayesian statistics with Stan: fundamentals of Bayesian inference and the Bayesian workflow, Stan ecosystem by Mitzi Morris
stancon2026.org
Tutorials – Stan Conference 2026
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Måns Magnusson @mansmag.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
🔥 The early-bird deadline for StanCon 2026 (and, even more importantly, the StanCon Uppsala T-shirt) is in one week! 🔥 More information can be found here: discourse.mc-stan.org/t/stancon-20...
discourse.mc-stan.org
StanCon 2026: Early bird (and t-shirt) deadline in one week!
Hi all! Also, the 10th of June (AoE) is the early-bird deadline, and after that, the conference fee will increase! Also, only those who register before the 10th of June will be able to buy a StanCon ...
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MC Stan @mc-stan.org · 19/05/2026
CmdStan 2.39 has been released! - embedded Laplace approximation - new yule_simon distribution - gamma_lccdf more stable - optimization convergence status in output - length-1 tuples See more at blog.mc-stan.org/2026/05/19/r...
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Måns Magnusson @mansmag.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
🔥 StanCon poster deadline and early bird deadline is coming up 🔥 discourse.mc-stan.org/t/stancon-20... @mc-stan.org @avehtari.bsky.social
discourse.mc-stan.org
Stancon 2026: Poster presentation deadline the 27th of May and Early Bird the 10th of June
Hi all! Just a reminder that the last program deadline for StanCon is coming up. The 27th of May is the last deadline for poster presentations. Also, the 10th of June is the early-bird deadline, and...
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Aki Vehtari @avehtari.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
In "Uncertainty in Bayesian leave-one-out cross-validation based model comparison" doi.org/10.1214/25-B... we showed when LOO-CV elpd_diff and se_diff normal approximation uncertainty quantification in model comparison is well calibrated. We have now merged a related PR to loo R package 1/
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Cristi Proistosescu @cristiproist.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
Have you ever read the Sherwood, Webb et al 2020 assessment of ECS and thought "I'd love to play with the numbers if only it didn't take 1 day to sample the posterior?" Rejoice! I've implemented the model in @mc-stan.org, and it now runs in ~1 minute. You can even run it in Google colab: 1/
cdds-uiuc.github.io
Sherwood Webb 2020 in Stan — Google Colab edition - Climate Dynamics and Data Science Notes
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MC Stan @mc-stan.org · 04/05/2026
If you have benefited from Stan, you can contribute back to the project also by nominating yourself to be part of Stan Governing Body (you don't need to be a developer) discourse.mc-stan.org/t/elections-...
discourse.mc-stan.org
Elections for Stan Governing Body 2026
We’re renewing the Stan Governing Body (SGB) with 2 seats up for grabs (I’m continuing my 2-year term). Current SGB members may still run, however they are not guaranteed to preserve their seats. As i...
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Måns Magnusson @mansmag.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
🔥 Announcing the last tutorial on Stancon 2026 🔥 discourse.mc-stan.org/t/announcing...
discourse.mc-stan.org
Announcing the last tutorial of StanCon 2026
We are happy to announce the last workshop at StanCon 2026 in August! Contributing to Stan: A Developer’s Guide to the Core, Interfaces, and First Contributions Would you like to contribute a new fe...
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Måns Magnusson @mansmag.bsky.social · 27/04/2026
🔥 Announcing StanCon 2026 Program 🔥 Now we have a program for StanCon 2026 in Uppsala in August 17-21! discourse.mc-stan.org/t/announcing...
discourse.mc-stan.org
Announcing the program for StanCon 2026!
Hi everybody! Now we have a program for StanCon 2026! We have a lot of excellent contributed talks, tutorials, workshops, and keynotes. The full program can be found here: The program may still be...
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Riccardo Fusaroli @fusaroli.eurosky.social · 24/04/2026
very early draft of the techniques we show-cased in class: fusaroli.github.io/AdvancedCogn...
fusaroli.github.io
Appendix B — Stan Optimization Cheatsheet – Advanced Cognitive Modeling Notes
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Magnus Johansson @pgmj.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
I've made an R package for Bayesian Rasch #psychometrics with brms models, easyRaschBayes (on CRAN), implementing simple functions to create figures and tables with model fit metrics, etc. Attaching figures from conditional item infit, item-restscore with GK gamma, and the log-likelihood criterion.
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Michael Flynn @flynnpolsci.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
Finally finished up a blog post on estimating Bradley–Terry models using brms. www.m-flynn.com/posts/2025-1...
m-flynn.com
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Måns Magnusson @mansmag.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
🔥 We’re pleased to announce two confirmed tutorials for #StanCon2026 🔥 _An introduction to applied Bayesian statistics with Stan_ — Mitzi Morris _Bayesian model diagnostics: Workflows and software tools_ — Osvaldo Martin, Teemu Säilynoja, and Noa Kallioinen More info: stancon2026.org/tutorials/
stancon2026.org
Tutorials – Stan Conference 2026
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ArviZ @arviz.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
New paper out in JOSS: “ArviZ: a modular and flexible library for exploratory analysis of Bayesian models” It covers the design principles behind ArviZ and the motivation for the refactoring in 1.0. joss.theoj.org/papers/10.21...
joss.theoj.org
ArviZ: a modular and flexible library for exploratory analysis of Bayesian models
Martin et al., (2026). ArviZ: a modular and flexible library for exploratory analysis of Bayesian models. Journal of Open Source Software, 11(119), 9889, https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.09889
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ArviZ @arviz.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
ArviZ 1.0 brings a lot of new plotting functionality. Check our gallery for a glimpse of what's new: python.arviz.org/projects/plo...
python.arviz.org
Example gallery — arviz-plots dev documentation
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ArviZ @arviz.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
ArviZ now has built-in tools for prior & likelihood sensitivity analysis via power-scaling! Instead of fitting multiple models with different priors, you fit once and use importance sampling to approximate the effect of perturbing the prior or likelihood.
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Riccardo Fusaroli @fusaroli.eurosky.social · 08/04/2026
First tentative draft of huge chapter on bayesian models of cognition for my Cognitive Modeling (in @mc-stan.org )course notes: fusaroli.github.io/AdvancedCogn... I'll probably need to split it, as I want to add models of sequential update and empirical data 😅
fusaroli.github.io
Chapter 10 Bayesian Models of Cognition | Advanced Cognitive Modeling Notes
My notes for the advanced cognitive modeling course - 2026
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Matthijs Hollanders @matthollanders.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
occARU: Bayesian (multispecies) occupancy models for ARU data using @mc-stan.org. Automated recording units (ARUs) like camera traps produce rich time series which warrant going beyond occupancy and focusing on detection rates. 1/n mhollanders.github.io/occARU/
mhollanders.github.io
Occupancy Models for Automated Recording Unit (ARU) Data
Bayesian (multispecies) occupancy models for ARU data using Stan.
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Riccardo Fusaroli @fusaroli.eurosky.social · 21/03/2026
New Cognitive Modeling in R and @mc-stan.org chapters up: hierarchical modeling and model comparison. Still not satisfied with the text, but I brought the code and concepts up to date (LOO-PIT even, altho' still an info dump). Comments are welcome! fusaroli.github.io/AdvancedCogn...
fusaroli.github.io
Chapter 7 Individual Differences in Cognitive Strategies: The Hierarchical Architecture | 09 — Bayesian Models of Cognition
My notes for the advanced cognitive modeling course - 2026
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