iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 15/10/2026

Not if it's the fork halfway up to the Cobbler near Arrochar. Take the right path, and you've got a fairly relaxed hike to the summit. Take the left path, and you better be prepared to do some climbing...

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

Well, that's the kind of comment that renders the bonnie, bonnie banks of Loch Lomond merely bonnie x1

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

Should Scotland become an independent country? Yes Yes

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

Uh...which of the two paths is Scotland, exactly?

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

The Tories nudge ahead of Reform on seats in our Nowcast as Reform's slump continues. Labour are out in front. 🌹 Lab — 296 🌳 Con — 109 ➡️ Ref — 96 🔶 LD — 72 🎗️ SNP — 45 🌼 PC — 8 ☘️ SF — 7 🌱 GPEW — 4 🔷 UUP — 4 🦁 DUP — 3 ⚫ Ind — 2 🌹 SDLP — 2 ⚪ Other — 1 Ⓣ TUV — 1 devolvedelections.co.uk/westminster/

Map of UK by party: LD south west, SNP Scot, Plaid West Wales, Red Nort West, Blue/teal/red scattered across england

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Tony Yates @t0nyyates.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

This guy is not really qualified to assess whether the Brexit vote was swayed or not. He should point out that that is outside his expertise and is a social scientific not a security question. www.theguardian.com/politics/liv...

theguardian.com

MI5 chief Ken McCallum confirms Russia did interfere in Brexit referendum but says it had little impact – UK politics live

He argued there was no evidence to suggest the result of the Brexit vote had been swayed as a result of the effort

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

Republican Speaker visits Texas weeks away from the midterms, but supposedly doesn't believe the polls?

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 12/10/2026

Highlights from new @ipsosinscotland.bsky.social polling out today: 📉51% of Scots think Scotland is heading in the wrong direction (+6 v. May). 🤝Net support for collaboration between ScotGov and UKGov is now +18, up from -4 in May. 38% of SNP voters support such collaboration, just 29% oppose it.

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 12/10/2026

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 12/10/2026

What if the UK used region/nation-wide lists? On today's numbers it could look like: 🌹 Lab — 185 ➡️ Ref — 146 🌳 Con — 125 🐤 LD — 63 🌱 GPEW — 57 ⬅️ Res — 17 🎗️ SNP — 17 ⚫ Inds — 12 ☘️ SF — 5 🌼 PC — 4 ✊ WP — 4 🦁 DUP — 4 🤝 APNI — 3 🌱 GP S — 2 🔷 UUP — 2 🌹 SDLP — 2 ⚪ Other — 1 Ⓣ TUV — 1

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 12/10/2026

Net support for collaboration between ScotGov and the Welsh and Northern Irish administrations splits heavily by party support: Welsh Govt: All: +22 SNP voters: +69 Lab voters: +8 Reform voters: -27 NI Exec: All: +7 SNP voters: +65 Lab voters: -13 Reform voters: -44 Full results here:

ipsos.com

Scots warm to closer working between Scottish and UK Governments under Burnham.

New Ipsos Scotland polling finds a marked rise since May in positive attitudes towards close working between the Scottish and UK governments.

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

What if the UK used STV? On today's polling we think it be around: 🌹 Labour — 188 ➡️ Reform — 155 🌳 Conservative — 136 🌱 Green — 53 🐤 Lib Dem — 52 🎗️ SNP — 25 ⚫ Inds — 10 🌼 Plaid Cymru — 10 ☘️ Sinn Féin — 5 🦁 DUP — 4 🔷 UUP — 3 🌹 SDLP — 3 ✊ Workers — 3 🤝 Alliance — 2 Ⓣ TUV — 1

STV map of the UK, lots of Red, Yellow in Scotland and Reform/Con/LD spots

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

To be clear, I've nothing to do with the model - that'd be @eoghanly.bsky.social. As to why this result, they've hoovered up a lot of the support Andrew Feinstein won in 2024, but their national polling is now well below its peak this Parliament and Polanski is increasingly unpopular nationally.

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

This is a pretty accurate projection, especially for a by-election, with a mean error across party projections of +/-1.7ppts. Variation v. actual results: Labour: +0.6 Greens: -2.2 Conservatives: -0.4 Reform: +4.2 Lib Dems: +1.2 Restore: -1.4 Others: -2

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Our first DevolvedElections Westminster projection on recent polling: 🌹 Lab — 301 ➡️ Reform — 121 🌳 Con — 77 🔶 LD — 72 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 SNP — 45 🐉 PC — 8 ☘️ SF — 7 🌱 Green — 4 🔷 UUP — 4 🦁 DUP — 3 ⚫ Ind — 3 🌹 SDLP — 2 ⚪ Speaker — 1 ⬅ Restore — 1 Ⓣ TUV — 1 From devolvedelections.co.uk/westminster/

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Our Westminster model, going live tomorrow, has Labour winning Holborn & St Pancras by about 45% to 30% (Adding together Green and Feinstein). This is a general election model not a by-election model so candidates aren't considered.

Lab 45.8
Green 16.7
Feinstein 13.9
Reform 10.1
Con 6.7
LD 4.6
Restore 1.1

Green 16.7 + Feinstein 13.9 = 30.6

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Ipsos in Scotland @ipsosinscotland.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

New @ipsosinscotland.bsky.social research for Scottish Government, exploring experiences of employability support across Scotland. Thread on key findings and link to report from @rachelormston.bsky.social 👇

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

NEW! Mega thread on the Tories... Work from the NPRC team @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social shows two critical electoral evaluations that spell much deeper trouble for the Tories. Follow @justinrobinsonpol.bsky.social and @martamiori.bsky.social as this work builds. Why do the findings matter? …

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

And certainly not by a party that will almost certainly have no electoral mandate north of the border.

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

I have no issue in principle with reviewing devolution in Scotland. It should be a living process, and there's no reason why that should always mean devolving more powers. But it shouldn't be done with the explicit end-goal of clawing back powers to implement UK Govt policy over ScotGov's head.

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Depends on exactly what they mean. Badenoch seems to be backtracking on the comparison to Iron Dome. Either way, even a lighter capability isn't a good use of the defence budget. If we're in a position of Russian drones threatening UK cities we need that budget elsewhere.

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

You can at least make the argument that Polaris provided a nuclear deterrent during the Cold War. What on earth will "Britannia Shield" actually do?

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

£10bn for a weapon system we don't need that will serve no defence purpose?

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Yes. I'm still not sure what your point is?

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Yeah, it's fucked up. I'm not denying that.

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

I think that the Green (E&W) motion was moronic and wrong, personally. That doesn't justify reacting with outright lies.

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

I mean... I'm sorry, but explicitly saying that Israel is the only nation *in the whole world* that "faces questions" about displacement of native peoples is absolute horse manure.

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Big fan of @thenewsagents.co.uk, John, and Emily. But come on. There are tens of thousands of people who call the US foundationally racist because of the genocide of native peoples. It's not an allegation unique to Israel, right or wrong as it might be.

open.spotify.com

Have the Greens just voted for a de facto ban on Jews?

The News Agents · Episode

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Enjoy £50k more of your mortgage going straight into a developer's pocket while you spend more on energy bills and have to drive half an hour to take your kid to an overcrowded school.

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Purely management of symptoms and triggers like stress, which isn't super helpful given the work I do and having an infant...

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Experience really depends on the service. We have a great GP surgery, my neurologist in Glasgow was great even if she couldn't help much, and the maternity ward + team who did my wife's C-section were excellent. We've also had experience of having referrals rejected out of hand without explanation.

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

I had a very similar experience with the neurologist I saw at the Institute of Neurological Sciences at QEUH. Who was also able to explain exactly what FND is, how they think it operates etc but there was still that big shrug of "we don't really understand it and there's not much more I can do".

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

My sense is that FND is probably going to prove a catch-all for a range of conditions that we don't understand yet but which don't involve physical damage to the brain.

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Personally I was just happy to end years of tests for things like epilepsy with a treatment pathway of some kind, rather than "we don't know why you have absence seizures, we need to do more tests" that always came back negative. But I can understand feeling fobbed off.

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Luckily my physical symptoms have never been severe enough to require physio, thankfully. Random seizures are bad enough...

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

FND's a pretty terrifying condition to live with. It's still poorly understood compared to other neurological conditions, and there are no pharmaceutical treatmentt. The only real treatment pathway is psychological I'm lucky to have understanding family, friends, and colleagues. Not everyone is.

news.stv.tv

'People think we're faking it', say Scots living with neurological condition

FND can lead to tremors, muscle spasms, tics and mobility issues - but those living with it say they're often accused of faking symptoms

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Philip Cowley @philipjcowley.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

I see speculation that John Curtice may get chosen to lead Labour's electoral reform commission. And I see speculation that Labour want to end up with SV. I doubt both these things can be true. Because I would be very surprised if any commission led by Curtice ended up recommending SV.

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

There are valid arguments against the SNP's Scottish nationalism, but too often opponents make lazy arguments that it's our homegrown version of British/English nationalism espoused by Reform or Restore. Civic and ethnic nationalism aren't the same, and it's intellectually lazy to act otherwise.

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Which itself makes no sense. The Scottish WM polling would have the SNP winning the most constituencies, and yet they have them winning additional members...

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

I'm pretty sure they bolted AMS seats onto their FPTP model for that. It would break down as ~60% FPTP and ~40% additional MPs, so if you reduce it to the size of the Commons as is we'd be talking 390 FPTP MPs and 260 additional MPs.

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

I was so preoccupied with that that I didn't even notice that they don't have Labour winning a single Scottish top-up seat under AMS

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Well this doesn't pass the sniff test *at all*

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🎃Darin S Pumpkins🎃 @darinself.com · 01/10/2026

Alright class, lets gather around and discuss parties as coalitions as the ability of members of legislature (MLs) to credibly challenge or defect from party leadership.

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Not fun at all. But it was actually quite easy to make that decision, looking at the state of HE

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Before my daughter was born, I made the calculation that going from doing a PT PhD with a PT job to a FT postdoc - if I could even get that - would detonate our family finances or, worse, leave me unemployed. So I suspended my studies. It's generally not financially feasible to be an academic.

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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

This is a serious problem, exacerbating the existing problem of there being too few jobs for the number of PhDs being churned out...

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