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Mark Dodson

@markdodson.bsky.social
221 followers 109 following 240 posts

Founder of Cypress Capital - www.cypresscapital.com

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Reposted by Mark Dodson
Luke Kawa @ljkawa.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
RECORD RETAIL PURCHASES Five-day net purchases of single stocks by Robinhood traders just hit a fresh record, taking out their prior June peak. Last Wednesday’s and Monday’s selloffs were especially heavily bought. Wediditjoe.gif
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Stocks face a higher hurdle. In 2020, the S&P 500’s dividend yield topped the 20-year TIPS real yield by over 2 percentage points. Today, TIPS lead by over 2 points. Dividends aren’t total returns, but inflation-protected Treasuries offer much stronger competition.
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Reposted by Mark Dodson
Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 22/09/2026
‘“There was an argument that inflation would return to target on its own, without any additional help from the Fed.” But he said that the biggest issue with looking through shocks at the moment is that they’re not proving to be short-lived, or one-off events.‘ www.barrons.com/articles/fed...
barrons.com
Fed’s Barkin Warns Inflation Is Still a ‘Troublemaker’ Threatening More Rate Hikes
Inflation remains more than a percentage point above the central bank’s 2% target.
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 10/09/2026
America is losing its captive creditors www.ft.com/content/a441...
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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
If you're wondering if the global bond market sell-off is about growth or fiscal space, just look at how markets are trading. High-debt countries are getting hit much harder than low debt ones. We're in a global debt shock. Not a global growth shock... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-global...
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 15/08/2026
“Current mutual fund holdings indicate record low levels of active share (less deviation from the benchmark than ever), suggesting more benchmark-hugging than at any point in our data history since June 2000.” www.marketwatch.com/story/nvidia...
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 20/08/2026
‘The breakdown of federal spending shows why meaningful cuts are so difficult. The vast majority of the government’s spending goes to programs that promise benefits to individuals, such as Social Security and Medicare. Trimming these would likely anger many voters.‘ www.wsj.com/economy/u-s-...
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
How optimistic are analysts about future earnings? Forward earnings estimates now sit 50% above the current peak in actual earnings – a record. Even at the extremes of 1987 and 2021, analysts were only looking about 40% above peak earnings.
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Happy birthday Conor! Is it your birthday today? No clue how that’s on my calendar.
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
CAPE is above 41 and closing in on 42, less than 6% from the dot-com record. Pros say valuation isn't a timing tool because there's career risk in investing with a margin of safety. Some may ignore valuation with your money, but I'd wager many consider it with their own.
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Market Vane's bullish percentage is just one point shy of its highest reading in 30 years.
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
All 30 versions of the Atlanta Fed's Taylor Rule say Fed funds are at least 75 bps too low. At a 2% inflation target, 28 of 30 say they're at least 125 bps too low. So what inflation target gets over half the models to say Fed policy is neutral or tight? 6%! www.atlantafed.org/research-and...
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
"Skew Collapses on Upside Chasing...SPX skew collapsed to a 1-year low across tenors as investors sold out of hedges and rotated into upside calls to chase the rally. SPX 1M skew fell to its lowest level since mid-2024" www.cboe.com/insights/pos...
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Rydex bears have been endangered since 2022. Long before leveraged ETFs, Rydex funds let traders lever up. This old-school measure of speculative positioning has stayed persistently bullish throughout this bull market. Friday, net long exposure hit a record ~93%.
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
SpaceX stock got cut in half, but retail investors keep piling in: Chart of the Day 'Retail investors have bought SpaceX (SPCX) stock every day since its IPO. The rocket company's first earnings plunge only brought them back for more.' finance.yahoo.com/markets/stoc...
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Nice follow up post from that Institute for Family Studies study you posted just before...online speculation isn't the answer to anyone's problems.
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Reposted by Mark Dodson
Luke Kawa @ljkawa.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Sentiment check:
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Reposted by Mark Dodson
Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 02/08/2026
‘Prediction markets accounted for 20% of Robinhood’s trading revenue in the quarter, eclipsing both stock and crypto revenue for the first time and becoming its second-largest trading business after options.’ www.theinformation.com/articles/rob...
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
Smart…you don’t ever have to raise rates if you don’t meet.
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Reposted by Mark Dodson
Luke Kawa @ljkawa.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
July is the first month since October 2024 where none of the Magnificent 7’s hyperscalers are outperforming the S&P 500 or Nasdaq 100 over the trailing six months
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
'the consensus has over the past month meaningfully increased its near-term hyperscaler capex forecast, reducing expected free cash flow despite stronger operating cash flow forecasts.' www.apollo.com/wealth/insig...
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
'how bullish retail investors have gotten on the hyperscalers in recent months even as those names have struggled lately. Over the past month, call buying made up 55% of the retail opening activity in the hyperscalers on our exchanges – near the highest level in the past 6 years' buff.ly/BJzfuly
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
Wall Street's faith in rising profits hit a record. SPX fwd estimates are now farther above the previous earnings peak than ever, topping '87 & '21. These episodes haven't ended quietly. Rising volatility has often followed as earnings expectations & the mkt's rose-colored glasses begin to crack.
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
Margin debt has grown at 30% over the last 3yrs, narrowly missing the July '07 peak. This is the 10th episode in a century, placing today's appetite for leverage in an exclusive club. Remarkable considering margin is yesterday's tool. Investors have no shortage of new ways to speculate w leverage.
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Reposted by Mark Dodson
Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 19/07/2026
”OpenAI, Anthropic and SpaceX fit the late economist Hyman Minsky’s notion of Ponzi finance units, where loss-making businesses need to show capital appreciation to validate their liabilities. If valuations don’t rise... The whole thing would implode.“ themarket.ch/english/edwa...
themarket.ch
Edward Chancellor: «AI Is a Mania, And I Expect a Severe Implosion»
Historian Edward Chancellor discusses the investment boom surrounding AI, record-breaking IPOs such as SpaceX, and the warning signs he sees.
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Crude Oil has 43 days of supply left in the U.S. — the lowest inventory in 45 years @barchart.com ⛽️
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George Pearkes @peark.es · 17/07/2026
Unprecedented issuance of equity and debt so far this year.
Chart showing US Capital Markets Issuance: Rolling 90d Sum of Equity IPO, Equity Secondary, Investment Grade & High Yield Bonds/Syndicated Loans, ABS, and CLO (trn June '26 $, defl. w/  CPI) since 1999
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
HAMMACK: “.. For the first time in my tenure, I’m hearing from businesses who say they think we need to take action to curb inflation, and from consumers who can’t make ends meet about a growing sense of despair." @colbylsmith.bsky.social
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Luke Kawa @ljkawa.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
Vanda Research recently said retail net buying activity is waning. Citadel Securities said it’s “exceptionally resilient.” To break the tie: My Robinhood data pipe shows 1M net purchases of single stocks are <77x> what they were at the end of 2019. Read more: join.sherwood.news/entrypoint
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 15/07/2026
‘At currently indicated valuations, companies going public or expected to go public in 2026 could enter the market with aggregate valuations of roughly 12% of U.S. GDP – over twice the previous records of 1999 and 2021.’ www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc26...
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 16/07/2026
“From the standpoint of the state it’s sort of disgusting… They’ve found that they can clip people selling nothing but hope… and if they weren’t doing that they’d have to have the income tax higher. It’s a cynical sort of activity.” www.cnbc.com/2026/07/15/w...
cnbc.com
Warren Buffett on the market today: 'It's tough to find values when everybody is preferring gambling'
The investor has been sharply critical of the stock market, one that he says is increasingly defined by speculative trading as opposed to long-term investing.
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Reposted by Mark Dodson
Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 12/07/2026
‘Primary dealers have gone net short on corporate bonds for the first time in data going back to 1998.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 11/07/2026
"Stock-to-stock correlation inside the Russell 1000 just touched levels seen only a handful of times in ~40 years. A quiet index $SPX . A loud tape w/ winners and losers canceling each other out. Think alpha vs beta." -RenMac
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 05/07/2026
‘Today’s hyperscalers are making a huge bet that AI will deliver strong returns for investors. The trouble is that even with relatively extraordinary revenue growth, these investments look almost certain to deliver mediocre returns on the capital deployed.’ bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-shit-r...
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Reposted by Mark Dodson
Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 08/07/2026
“The S&P put/call skew just collapsed to 0.71. Not a low. The lowest reading on record... What this measures: how much investors pay to protect against a crash versus betting on a rally. At 0.71, crash protection is essentially free. Nobody wants it.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/at-least-o...
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
'During most bubbles, asset prices rose about 10-fold in real terms before a bear market began. In real terms, the Nasdaq 100 Index has already risen tenfold, while global semiconductor stocks have gained more than tenfold.' -Arthur Budaghyan, BCA h/t: @dailychartbook.bsky.social
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
Soaring demand for leveraged equity exposure is straining dealer balance sheets, pushing equity financing costs sharply higher and threatening to spill over into short-term funding markets. Soaring US Equity Funding Costs Risk Spilling Over to Repo Rates buff.ly/WeET5sD
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Reposted by Mark Dodson
Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 29/06/2026
‘The number of S&P 500 stocks with negative six-month beta to the overall market has surged.’ thedailyshot.com/2026/06/29/t...
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Reposted by Mark Dodson
Callum Thomas @topdowncharts.bsky.social · 28/06/2026
Just as mag-7 turns to lag-7 and various cracks are appearing in the bull case, investors are about as levered up as they can get... (what could go wrong)
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 27/06/2026
We have officially moved into uncharted territory. Margin debt & geared funds relative to M2 money supply set a new record in May, surpassing the high set at the peak of the dot-com bubble. Never before have investors devoted such a large share of available liquidity to leveraged speculation.
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 25/06/2026
‘For the market to be right on inflation going back to target, it requires that Fed tightening will do the trick. But that can’t be assumed: it’s the inflation the Fed can do little about that is accelerating right now.’ blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...
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Steve Rattner @steverattner.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
Unsold new homes are piling up. New-home sales fell 7.3% in May to a 580k annual rate, while supply jumped to 10.3 months — tied with mid-2022 for the most since the 2008–09 housing bust. With mortgage rates still elevated, builders are sitting on a growing glut.
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Ian Smith @iankmsmith.ft.com · 25/06/2026
"Equity investors, you can take them to Mars. Bond investors are, like, ‘where is my coupon?’" Allianz CIO warns SpaceX launching a big bond days after a blockbuster IPO shows markets are in "bubble territory" w. @antoinegara.bsky.social as.ft.com/r/af60e566-8...
as.ft.com
SpaceX bond sale signals markets are in ‘bubble territory’, warns Allianz CIO
Debt investors will scrutinise Musk’s rocket company more closely than equity markets, says Ludovic Subran
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Luke Kawa @ljkawa.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
The leverage involved in the AI <trade> can be a bigger near-term risk for markets than the leverage involved in the AI build-out. You’d have to win Squid Game >340x to get the assets that 11 leveraged SK-listed SK Hynix/Samsung ETFs have amassed in less than a month. sherwood.news/markets/sout...
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 20/06/2026
Oops...typo on that first chart. Here is a corrected one.
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 20/06/2026
Framing today's mkt: you can now earn a higher real yield from 30Y TIPS than the S&P 500's nominal cyclically adjusted earnings yield. Whether you consider TIPS truly risk-free or not, the opportunity cost of paying extreme multiples for equities has changed. Money goes where it is treated best.
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
'Tech firms are raising ever more cash from the markets. But the same egregious valuation conditions that led companies to issue large amounts of their own stock, also led Berkshire Hathaway to increase its cash holdings 1-2 years prior' - Simon White buff.ly/uhNNRJx
linkedin.com
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Reposted by Mark Dodson
Luke Kawa @ljkawa.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
Companies are tapping the stock market rather than buying back shares because that’s what YOU are rewarding. Record underperformance for buyback-heavy vs capex-heavy stocks in 2026. And companies on buyback binges are lagging no-buyback stocks by the most since 2008.
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Robert Armstrong @robarmstrong.bsky.social · 13/06/2026
Wall Street consensus estimates for hyperscaler free cash flow. Provides a good snapshot of where the market's head is at, I think:
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 14/06/2026
My car insurer got a new logo and letterhead…hedonic adjustments?
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