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Mark Dodson

@markdodson.bsky.social
223 followers 109 following 241 posts

Founder of Cypress Capital - www.cypresscapital.com

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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Consumers rarely expect both stocks and rates to rise in such large numbers. This combination appeared in just eight prior months: ahead of the 1987 and 2000 bear markets and February 2018’s Volmageddon. Different outcomes, but none were comfortable for investors.
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Stocks face a higher hurdle. In 2020, the S&P 500’s dividend yield topped the 20-year TIPS real yield by over 2 percentage points. Today, TIPS lead by over 2 points. Dividends aren’t total returns, but inflation-protected Treasuries offer much stronger competition.
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
How optimistic are analysts about future earnings? Forward earnings estimates now sit 50% above the current peak in actual earnings – a record. Even at the extremes of 1987 and 2021, analysts were only looking about 40% above peak earnings.
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
CAPE is above 41 and closing in on 42, less than 6% from the dot-com record. Pros say valuation isn't a timing tool because there's career risk in investing with a margin of safety. Some may ignore valuation with your money, but I'd wager many consider it with their own.
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Market Vane's bullish percentage is just one point shy of its highest reading in 30 years.
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
All 30 versions of the Atlanta Fed's Taylor Rule say Fed funds are at least 75 bps too low. At a 2% inflation target, 28 of 30 say they're at least 125 bps too low. So what inflation target gets over half the models to say Fed policy is neutral or tight? 6%! www.atlantafed.org/research-and...
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
"Skew Collapses on Upside Chasing...SPX skew collapsed to a 1-year low across tenors as investors sold out of hedges and rotated into upside calls to chase the rally. SPX 1M skew fell to its lowest level since mid-2024" www.cboe.com/insights/pos...
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Rydex bears have been endangered since 2022. Long before leveraged ETFs, Rydex funds let traders lever up. This old-school measure of speculative positioning has stayed persistently bullish throughout this bull market. Friday, net long exposure hit a record ~93%.
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
SpaceX stock got cut in half, but retail investors keep piling in: Chart of the Day 'Retail investors have bought SpaceX (SPCX) stock every day since its IPO. The rocket company's first earnings plunge only brought them back for more.' finance.yahoo.com/markets/stoc...
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
'the consensus has over the past month meaningfully increased its near-term hyperscaler capex forecast, reducing expected free cash flow despite stronger operating cash flow forecasts.' www.apollo.com/wealth/insig...
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
'how bullish retail investors have gotten on the hyperscalers in recent months even as those names have struggled lately. Over the past month, call buying made up 55% of the retail opening activity in the hyperscalers on our exchanges – near the highest level in the past 6 years' buff.ly/BJzfuly
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
Wall Street's faith in rising profits hit a record. SPX fwd estimates are now farther above the previous earnings peak than ever, topping '87 & '21. These episodes haven't ended quietly. Rising volatility has often followed as earnings expectations & the mkt's rose-colored glasses begin to crack.
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
Margin debt has grown at 30% over the last 3yrs, narrowly missing the July '07 peak. This is the 10th episode in a century, placing today's appetite for leverage in an exclusive club. Remarkable considering margin is yesterday's tool. Investors have no shortage of new ways to speculate w leverage.
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
'During most bubbles, asset prices rose about 10-fold in real terms before a bear market began. In real terms, the Nasdaq 100 Index has already risen tenfold, while global semiconductor stocks have gained more than tenfold.' -Arthur Budaghyan, BCA h/t: @dailychartbook.bsky.social
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
Soaring demand for leveraged equity exposure is straining dealer balance sheets, pushing equity financing costs sharply higher and threatening to spill over into short-term funding markets. Soaring US Equity Funding Costs Risk Spilling Over to Repo Rates buff.ly/WeET5sD
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 27/06/2026
We have officially moved into uncharted territory. Margin debt & geared funds relative to M2 money supply set a new record in May, surpassing the high set at the peak of the dot-com bubble. Never before have investors devoted such a large share of available liquidity to leveraged speculation.
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 20/06/2026
Oops...typo on that first chart. Here is a corrected one.
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 20/06/2026
Framing today's mkt: you can now earn a higher real yield from 30Y TIPS than the S&P 500's nominal cyclically adjusted earnings yield. Whether you consider TIPS truly risk-free or not, the opportunity cost of paying extreme multiples for equities has changed. Money goes where it is treated best.
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
SpaceX is reportedly valued at more than 90x sales and is worth roughly as much as the entire aerospace industry. Can a company exceed expectations when expectations already imply decades of extraordinary growth? At 90x sales, the margin for error and the margin of safety, are slim.
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
'A record 35% of stocks in the S&P top 100 now trade with inverted 3-month call skew...retail optimism in Tech is reaching a near record, with bullish trades making up almost two-thirds of all retail opening options activity in the mega-cap Tech stocks.' buff.ly/3k5CuAn
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
Margin debt (plus geared funds) as a percentage of M2 hit a new cycle high in April. Then came May's semi-mania...decent chance this ratio has now eclipsed the dot-com record, meaning investors are committing a larger share of available liquidity to leveraged mkt exposure than ever before.
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
Thirty variations of the Taylor Rule all point in the same direction: Fed policy remains accommodative. The current Fed Funds midpoint is roughly 180 basis points below the average prescribed rate. Even the most lenient model calls for a Fed Funds rate 75 basis points higher than today.
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
Margin debt growth hit 50% year-over-year in April, before May's semi-fueled melt-up. Speculative appetites don't run that hot very often. Over the last century, this is only the 15th episode in which margin debt growth exceeded 50%. 3Yr annualized margin debt growth is now the highest since 2007.
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
The Shiller CAPE Ratio appears likely to close May above 40x for the first time since September 1999. (CAPE smooths earnings over a full business cycle to gauge valuation.) Just a little more enthusiasm from the retail crowd and we may be revisiting a record many thought would stand for generations.
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
'Retail options traders have traded roughly ~2.8x their average daily semiconductor volume this month, nearly ~25% above the prior record set in June 2024, during NVDA’s stock split and run to surpass MSFT as the world’s most valuable company.' buff.ly/twiG5nO
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
Retail trading activity is on pace for the "most active month ever" - Scott Rubner buff.ly/twiG5nO
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
Single-stock leveraged ETFs now account for nearly 25% of leveraged ETF assets – up from almost nothing just a few years ago. And if these products were remotely about hedging, net exposure probably wouldn’t be at a record 95% long. Speculation is getting narrower, faster, and more concentrated.
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
"commercial electricity demand in the US is finally surpassing residential, largely driven by data centers and miners. Given the commercial's growing importance to utilities...residential customers' complaints are increasingly falling on deaf ears. " - Paul Kedrosky buff.ly/ZU14LGk
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
Stock market values tower over the economy...Total Market Cap (incl FDI) to GDP hit 3x. The higher valuations climb relative to GDP, the more the economy depends on elevated asset prices. A normal cyclical bear market could erase wealth equivalent to an entire year of US economic output.
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
Bond vigilantes got soft after decades of disinflation. The longer inflation refuses to normalize, the harder it becomes for bond markets to pretend otherwise. Inflation may be reminding them what they’re supposed to do.
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
Bullish Positionion in Stocks Reaches Extremes Record retail call buying in large-cap tech stocks has pushed options markets into a historically rare condition. Over 20% of the S&P 100 now exhibit inverted 3-month call skew - approaching 2021 meme-stock era extremes. buff.ly/Y4FPCKU
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
'We’ve seen a sharp uptick in call buying activity from retail investors on our exchanges, with over 52% of all retail opening activity in 10 mega-cap Tech stocks...up over 15 pts from last month and is the highest since the covid “meme stock” era.' buff.ly/u47TBdg
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
“BoA (Hartnett): Private client allocations are 65.3% stocks (highest since Oct’21), 17.5% bonds (lowest since Mar’22), 9.9% cash (lowest this century).” – Neil Sethi @neilksethi.bsky.social
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
‘retail investor equity flows on our platform sharply accelerated in April after experiencing a brief pause from the record inflows to begin the year. The net buying on our platform last week alone was in the 98th percentile of weekly flows since 2019.’ buff.ly/s0KPj52
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
"South Korea’s stock market has muscled its way into the world’s top 7, powered by an AI chip rally that has propelled it past two major markets in a matter of weeks." buff.ly/YXfXm3u
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
'Wall Street’s rebound since late March has been driven by the smallest number of stocks on record, pushing US market concentration to an all-time high and prompting warnings about the “fragility” of the rally' www.ft.com/content/7599...
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
"Big Tech’s record $725bn AI investment strategy is beginning to strain the resources of America’s largest companies, leaving them with less cash left over this year than at any point in the past decade." www.ft.com/content/b3df...
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
“Funds are selling while retail is buying. The 2nd-largest hedge fund selling in tech in a decade meets the 3rd-largest retail fund flow into” - Jason Goepfert
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 02/05/2026
After a one-month vacation in Tehran, speculative fervor is back. Equity put/call ratio hit a cycle high for greed – lowest put/call reading since April 2022. Post-stimulus, we've grown comfortable with these levels, but prior to 2020, this would have been considered an extremely frothy mkt.
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
The Election Cycle and "Sell in May" anomalies, popularized by the Stock Trader's Almanac, boil down to two 6-mo tilts: • Midterm May–Oct: -3.3% annualized. The only negative window in the 4-yr cycle. • Midterm Nov–Apr: +23.4% annualized. 100% win rate since 1950. Sell in Midterm May is upon us...
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 25/04/2026
"Just six companies account for 70% of the S&P 500's earnings upgrade for 2026. What do all these companies have in common? They are benefiting from shortages: A shortage of oil and more importantly, a shortage of semiconductors." - Peter Berezin @peterberezin.bsky.social
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
One company is responsible for half of S&P 500 earnings revisions since Iran war’s start "That company is Micron Technology...which according to Goldman Sachs calculations has a 51% share of the earnings per share revisions since the Iran war started." www.marketwatch.com/story/the-na...
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
Not many precedents for this setup... Chart source: Jason Goepfert
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
"Non-commercial futures traders (who are the smart money in Bitcoin futures) keep adding to their net longs even as prices chop sideways. This is a big bottoming indication for prices." Source: Tom McClellan
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
"The market timers’ eagerness to instead believe that the worst is over is more reminiscent of the “slope of hope” that markets slide down." - Mark Hulbert buff.ly/7zcspue
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 06/04/2026
Defensive sectors just flipped to leadership. That’s rare – and historically important. The last four signals since 1989 all aligned with recessions or bear markets. When defensives lead, stocks tend to struggle.
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 06/04/2026
ISM flashed a “prices > demand” warning in March, with the spread pushing above +20 territory that has historically been unfriendly for stocks.
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
Since the end of Bretton Woods, a large share of bear markets or recessions have coincided with sharp oil spikes. A ~75% YoY surge has been a useful threshold. April will land right around that level unless crude drops back below ~$104–105.
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
"withdrawal requests at...Blue Owl Technology Income Corp, had surged to 40.7 per cent of the fund’s $3bn value. Requests to exit the...Blue Owl Credit Income Corp, shot to 21.9 per cent of the fund’s value." Blue Owl struck by $5.4bn of redemption requests (FT) buff.ly/gZMQjRc
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Mark Dodson @markdodson.bsky.social · 30/03/2026
Sentiment Surveys have broken away from excessive optimism, but investor responses remain only halfway to levels that would objectively qualify as bearish.
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