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Defenestration

@madwonk.bsky.social
445 followers 472 following 1.7K posts

DC-based technical analyst, I study that which should never be used. All opinions my own, but you probably shouldn't trust me anyways.

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U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission @cpsc.gov · 01/10/2026
#Recall: Gazelle USA Recalls Urban Arrow Cargo Electric Bikes; The front bolt in the seat post clamping mechanism can break, causing the seat to become loose, posing a fall hazard. Get repair. www.cpsc.gov/Recalls/2027...
Recalled electric bikes.
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AP Stylebook @apstylebook.com · 23/09/2026
Artificial intelligence systems do not think, feel, want or understand. Avoid language that gives them human characteristics.
apnews.com
https://apnews.com/article/openai-safety-ai-framework-089e75b95bc935af092da7b79d92706d
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Defenestration @madwonk.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Correction: "Marco Rubio tells reporters that negotiators have given up and are demanding things that simply will not happen"
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Gerry Doyle @mgerrydoyle.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
tbf I think a lot of "asia casuals" don't understand how intensely focused many countries in the region are on taiwan, not just japan for instance: notoriously neutral singapore sells apcs to taiwan and does military training in the mountains there
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accidentalflyer 🇨🇦🇹🇼🇺🇸🇺🇦 @accidentalflyer.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
This doesn't reflect reality on the ground in Taiwan at all, is Japan erasure, and also increase the chance of Xi Jinping miscalculating.
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Brian Hioe @brianhioe.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Here's me on that Simon Shuster piece in The Atlantic. The reason why I think it struck a nerve is his sympathies are quite transparent. He spends two paragraphs at the start fawning over the grandeur of CCP state ceremonies
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Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
We had <ten> Benghazi investgations
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Tony Stark @tonystark.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
You should listen to Jerry, he’s kinda the man on this and he’s open source now.
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Defenestration @madwonk.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
Introduce yourself as what almost killed you. Hi, I'm a golf-ball sized, potentially cancerous cyst pushing up against the carotid artery
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Defenestration @madwonk.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
it remains true but: maybe you should base your politics more on lived experience+books than random internet/tv/radio commentators!
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Cheryl Rofer @cherylrofer.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
The Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty made an enormous difference. It entered into force in 1970. President John F. Kennedy thought we might have 25-30 nuclear weapons states by the 1980s. We now have 9.
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Patrick Chovanec @prchovanec.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
Beijing's military museum has undergone quite the renovation since I was last there.
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Defenestration @madwonk.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Worth reiterating that while it's entirely possible that either the regime capitulates or backs down, it's also entirely possible that whatever chaos is instilled by this conflict creates something much worse and more violent than the current status quo!
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Defenestration @madwonk.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Was in a greasy Michigan diner last week. No french fries but "American" fries, but they gave me organic ketchup. The bathrooms simultaneously had gendered signs AND a poster saying "whatever". Genuinely baffling the contradictory signifiers on display!
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Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
Okay, now there's a claim that China acquired voter file data. Not that *elections* were compromised, but rather that the Chinese stole information about voters
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Defenestration @madwonk.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
Tl;dr rationalwiki.org/wiki/Gish_Ga...
rationalwiki.org
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Defenestration @madwonk.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
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🇵🇸Martin “Doomsday” Pfeiffer🖖🏳️‍🌈 @nuclearanthro.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
🚨FOIA ARCHIVE VICTORY 🚨 After near a decade & 100s of hours of work... ...I've largely reconstituted digital DOE/NNSA FOIA archive from 2017 🚨INCLUDING SCANS 0F OTW MISSING/CORRUPTED PDFS!🚨 FREE POST! #NukeSky #FOIASky 1/e Enable my work: patreon.com/nuclearanthro paypal.me/nuclearanthro
patreon.com
SWEET FOIA ARCHIVE VICTORY! | Martin Pfeiffer
MASSIVE SUCCESS! SWEET VICTORY! Summary After hundreds of hours of effort, and almost a decade of work, I have largely reconstituted (and po
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Rocky Flats Chimney Sweep 🇺🇸 @midlifesuezcrisis.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
Man, going back through the professional debates over Iranian nuclear weapons from the 2010s is so surreal now. "The lesson of the Persian Gulf War is, don't mess with America without a nuclear bomb"- yeah or uh a nearby narrow waterway and a shitload of ballistic and cruise missiles i guess
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Defenestration @madwonk.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
Translation: "Senior U.S. officials said that comparison to the JCPOA are inaccurate as the JCPOA had actual substance where this MOU is just a bunch of hopes and dreams."
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Reuters @reuters.com · 12/06/2026
Main provisions of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal abandoned by Trump reut.rs/4vbv56i
reut.rs
Main provisions of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal abandoned by Trump
The U.S. says it is close to signing a peace deal that would end the three-month-old war with Iran, though terms have not yet been made public.
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Bill Grueskin @bgrueskin.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
If these Iran-deal details are correct , they’ll make the JCPOA look like Hirohito’s surrender in 1945 Via the WSJ’s chief foreign-affairs correspondent
Iran’s Mehr news agency publishes the purported text of the draft agreement with Trump. It will keep the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian control, will promise Iran $300 billion in reconstruction money in addition to an immediate cash transfer of $24 billion, a suspension of sanctions and the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the Middle East. Also, a commitment not to bother Iran again about its missiles and proxies, and restraining Israel in Lebanon.
The U.S. gets in exchange a pinky promise to respect the NPT. 
Let’s see what happens in coming days. 
Link: me
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Jon Gambrell @jongambrell.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
APNewsAlert: JERUSALEM (AP) — #Israel says has #Iran launched missiles targeting it.
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Science Magazine @science.org · 05/05/2026
Deepfakes are everywhere, but digital forensics investigators are fighting back. Learn more: scim.ag/42dMPBg
To verify images, digital forensics investigators will often check whether the geometry of the scene is realistic. In a real photo, lines that run parallel in reality—like floor tiles—should meet at a single vanishing point. In this image, however, the dotted lines do not meet in a single point, indicating it is a fake.
Image: an AI-generated image of soldiers marching down a hallway in three lines, wearing fatigues and carrying rifles. Four dotted white lines have been added over the image, running along the floor tiles visible in the foreground and extending back to where the vanishing point should be, behind the soldiers. Instead of meeting in a single point, the lines all cross at different points.Investigators also examine reflections. The lines connecting points on an object to matching points in its mirror image run parallel in reality, so similarly should meet at a vanishing point. In this image, the lines again do not converge on one point, revealing it to be a fake.
Image: An AI-generated image of a plastic cartoon dinosaur toy with its reflection visible in a small mirror. Four dotted white lines are layered over the image, connecting points on the toy with the same points on its reflection: the top of its eye, the end of its jaw, its hand, and its foot. The lines extend out to the side of the image, where they all cross at different points rather than meeting at a single point.Shadows can be a giveaway, too. Because the Sun is so far away, its rays are essentially parallel when they reach Earth's surface. That means that the lines connecting points on an object to the shadows they cast in sunlight should also intersect at a vanishing point. In this Al-generated image, that is clearly not the case.
Image: An AI-generated image of colorful, semi-transparent plastic cubes arranged in a group in a city plaza. Six dotted white lines are layered over the image, connecting corners of several cubes with the corresponding corners in their shadows. The lines extend upward off the edge of the image, toward where a vanishing point should be. Three of them converge on roughly the same point, but two extend further, and one cuts across all the others at an angle.
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Judd Legum @juddlegum.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
RIP Project Freedom (5/4/26 — 5/5/26)
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Defenestration @madwonk.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
Guys. I was J O K I N G
Trump says we're going to blockade the straight of hormuz
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Micah @rincewind.run · 02/04/2026
congratulations to trump and bibi for starting a war and immediately making the iranian regime the strongest and richest it has been in its entire history incredible, world-historic geopolitical fuckup
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Andy Vitek @avitek.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
Its never been more joever.
JUST IN: Jim Cramer claims oil prices have climaxed.
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Nicholas Grossman @nicholasgrossman.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
Trump is seeking a deal with Iran, presumably to stop the economic damage, but what if Iran doesn't want the war to end yet? They've got a stranglehold on global energy, they rejected the US peace offer, and America's leadership doesn't seem to know what to do. My latest, in @liberalcurrents.com:
liberalcurrents.com
What If Iran Doesn’t Want the War to End Yet?
America is not the sole actor in this war—the enemy always gets a vote.
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YIMBYs Against Ezra Klein @orko.bsky.social · 21/03/2026
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Steve Herman @newsguy.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
CBS Radio was the foundation of American broadcast journalism. Over five decades I filed hundreds of news reports for it and felt immense pride to have been on the same network as Murrow, Sevareid, Smith, Collingwood, Cronkite, Edwards, Trout, Townsend, Kuralt, Rather, Stahl, Knoller & Portnoy.
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weeder @weeder.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
Due to high geopolitical tensions, sports fans are temporarily required to contextualize their posts, for example: ❌ OH GOD OH NO OH FUCK ✔️ OH GOD OH NO OH FUCK how did he make that basketball go in the hole
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
RAPIDAN: “.. a weak but still-functioning regime is more likely to lean into asymmetric attacks on regional energy infrastructure and shipping lanes as a tool of survival, sustaining the geopolitical risk premium for months rather than weeks.”
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Defenestration @madwonk.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
They're forgetting the other half of what happened during Vietnam (FWIW I've been saying this is where we were going since January 2025)
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Mark Chadbourn @chadbourn.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
CNBC: “How do you see this war ending?” Trump envoy Steve Witkoff: “I don’t know.”
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Ray Radlein @radlein.bsky.social · 08/03/2026
An interesting counterfactual is the world where Trump DIDN'T attack Iran and then Khamenei died of old age in a few years -- would his hard-liner son have still been named his successor, or would they have gone in a slightly different direction, perhaps in reaction to prolonged public unrest?
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Defenestration @madwonk.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
There's been a lot of hay made by Republicans about how bombing Iran "reestablishes deterrence" but what they fail to understand is Iran believed their ability to wreck oil prices WAS a sufficient deterrent. As we can see, that wasn't the case for Trump! So now, they'll need something worse.
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
If the government gets to decide if you have them, they're not human rights.
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Sky Marchini @sky.skymarchini.net · 03/03/2026
hahahahah oh god this is gonna go so badly
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Governor Newsom Press Office @govpressoffice.gov.ca.gov · 03/03/2026
So billions will be spent and lives will be lost for nothing?
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Defenestration @madwonk.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
"as we move from deterrence into active combat" is a really roundabout way of saying we weren't deterred because Iran didn't already have nuclear weapons. In other words, without nukes, there *is* no deterring the US.
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Adam Schwarz @adamjschwarz.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
Prof. Robert Pape: "I have studied every air campaign since WWI... I've modelled the bombing of Fordow and regime change in Iran for 20 years... We are now in the grip of the escalation trap... This has never worked in over 100 years... Trump is up against the weight of history".
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Decker Eveleth @dexeve.bsky.social · 01/03/2026
Unlike the 12 Day War in which Iran used a certain segment of its missile force to retaliate in distinguishable waves, this is complete chaos. Many missiles across many fronts, potentially with units acting without centralized authority.
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Scott Horton @robertscotthorton.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
This is consistent with what one hears from serious analysts all around. The US negotiating team, led by two New York real estate developers with a reputation for incompetence at that and no serious diplomats or nuclear experts, were a bunch of ignorant pikers incapable of engaging in serious talks.
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Nicholas Grossman @nicholasgrossman.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
Airstrikes alone have never caused regime change. They can do a lot of damage, but can’t create conditions that last.
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Adam Gurri @adamgurri.liberalcurrents.com · 28/02/2026
Just to be blunt: the administration's belligerence abroad and at home are not distractions, they are things they loudly promised in the 2024 campaign and close to the heart of many of the key figures involved, including Trump himself. They live for this shit, and see it as Good Content
liberalcurrents.com
Killing for Content
The Trump administration cares more about clicks and content than human life.
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Cadence “Not A Coffee Civet” Andrysiak @supportourpoops.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
The cover of Bombing to Win: Air Power and Coercion in War by Robert Pape
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Gerry Doyle @mgerrydoyle.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
to put it more bluntly, afaik no one has ever changed a regime via airpower. (japan surrendering is not the same thing) the u.s. didn't even change venezuela's regime by taking its president!
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Leah McElrath @leahmcelrath.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
The timing of the initial strikes is unusual. Often you see these types of operations launched in the pre-dawn hours at the target site partly to limit civilian casualties. This operation began at the beginning of a work and school day, with millions of adult civilians and children in harms way.
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Defenestration @madwonk.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
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