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Leo Barasi

@leobarasi.bsky.social
4.3K followers 784 following 464 posts

Mostly climate change & public opinion. Book: The Climate Majority amzn.to/3h73dfm

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Reposted by Leo Barasi
David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
This new tool, the Carbon Impacts Tracer, which translates carbon emissions into real-world climate impacts like heat exposure and coral bleaching, looks super useful. ➡️ carbonimpactstracer.com
theguardian.com
New tool directly links carbon emissions to amount of environmental and economic damage caused
Carbon Impacts Tracer can be used to estimate climate impact from emissions across eight different factors, including lost food production
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Reposted by Leo Barasi
Nathan Ley @nathanley.com · 26/09/2026
cllrdrnathanley.substack.com/p/the-roofs-...
cllrdrnathanley.substack.com
The roofs won’t be enough
“Just put them on roofs instead” is the most comfortable argument in British politics. It is also the one that quietly hands the bill to our children.
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Leo Barasi @leobarasi.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
The FA charges require a whole new tense. How do you describe something that currently isn't true, but in the future will have been true now? It will is 10 years since Guardiola won a trophy
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Reposted by Leo Barasi
Oliver Morton, Eater of Sun @eaterofsun.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Really helpful climate graphic—can't remember seeing a plot quite like this before. www.theclimatebrink.com/p/my-new-nyt...
Chart showing cumulative probabilities of passing various levels of warming (y axis) over time (x axis) on the basis of current policies. The curve for 2 degrees is sigmoid, reaching 50% at 2050 and saturating at 100% by 2100. The curve for 3 degrees lifts off zero just before 2050 and reaches 50% in 2107. By 2150 (end of the chart) it has reached 77%. 4C gets started around 2075, is <5% at 2100 and has reached 28% by 2150
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Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
NEW: How did the summer heatwaves and wildfires change attitudes to climate and Net Zero, if at all? A short thread on analysis of tracker polling now summer is winding down. 🧵 (for @persuasionuk.bsky.social with @yougov.co.uk)
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Leo Barasi @leobarasi.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
gmail autocomplete can get in the sea
Line from a draft email that reads "mitigation is the only sane response, and the longer we delay Net Zero the", followed by the word "better" in grey as a proposed autocomplete
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Reposted by Leo Barasi
Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
I have lots of thoughts and emotions, but I really wonder what the "climate is not that important" crowd think when they watch what is unfolding in Nepal. They will surely deny any climate link. If they admit any climate link, would that mean they need to change their world view too?
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Reposted by Leo Barasi
Oliver Morton, Eater of Sun @eaterofsun.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Just heard @rory-stewart.bsky.social on @therestpolitics.bsky.social say that "we [the UK] still consume more carbon than we have ever done—we just have the t-shirts made in China". I've heard this point being made elsewhere recently too. And it is simply not true.
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Reposted by Leo Barasi
Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Sometimes neglected thing about the Conservative's hard turn against Net Zero is that as an issue it actually splits their voter coalition a fair bit more than Labour's. Con-Reform swing voters are hostile to climate action and clean energy, but Con-Lib Dem type swing voters are pro.
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Reposted by Leo Barasi
Leo Barasi @leobarasi.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
New Labour attack ad on Reform's Richard Tice for saying we should enjoy climate change. I think this is the first time Labour has ever published an ad attacking another party for opposing climate action
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Leo Barasi @leobarasi.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
New Labour attack ad on Reform's Richard Tice for saying we should enjoy climate change. I think this is the first time Labour has ever published an ad attacking another party for opposing climate action
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Leo Barasi @leobarasi.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Environment at highest level of UK public priorities since 2023, now joint 3rd most important issue along with defence and health. Among Labour and Lib Dem voters it's now the 2nd most important issue, only behind the economy
yougov.com
The most important issues facing the country 2011-2026
Which of the following do you think are the most important issues facing the country at this time? Please tick up to three.
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Leo Barasi @leobarasi.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
A Labour PM takes over from his colleague. Opposition in disarray. Speculation about early election. Extreme weather derails his plans but gives him the chance to establish himself as a national leader news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england...
Gordon Brown, hard hats, hi vis.
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Leo Barasi @leobarasi.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
UK harvest set to be smallest on record, according to new analysis from ECIU. When will this ideological obsession with stopping climate change finally end?
eciu.net
UK harvest even worse than previously thought – new data
Updated figures released by the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) suggest the UK's arable harvest is now expected to be even smaller than previously forecast.
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Reposted by Leo Barasi
Prof Richard Betts @richardabetts.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Still just speculation, but a train derailment on the hottest day of the year also makes me wonder whether heat-induced track buckling or subsidence played a role It’s a growing climate change risk to UK infrastructure I hope those injured make a full recovery www.telegraph.co.uk/business/202...
telegraph.co.uk
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Gaby Hinsliff @gabyhinsliff.bsky.social · 11/07/2026
This on schools in heatwave is pretty upsetting but have also heard some horror stories about nursing homes & hospital waiting rooms. Both ends of the age spectrum struggling www.theguardian.com/education/20...
theguardian.com
‘Children were calling for their mummies’: UK pupils struggle in 40C-plus classrooms
Teachers call for schools to be urgently adapted for hot weather amid reports of nausea, fainting and heatstroke
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Leo Barasi @leobarasi.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Is 20,000 deaths in a week a lot? It sure sounds like a lot
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Leo Barasi @leobarasi.bsky.social · 28/06/2026
Another heatwave coming lads
Brenda from Bristol
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Reposted by Leo Barasi
Nahel Belgherze @wxnb.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
Paris, the capital of France, has recorded more days above 40°C this week than during the 147-year period spanning from 1872 to 2019. Historic is an understatement.
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Leo Barasi @leobarasi.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
Monday was the planet's hottest 22 June ever recorded
Global surface air temperature from Copernicus https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu/
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Reposted by Leo Barasi
Leo Hickman @leohickman.carbonbrief.org · 24/06/2026
++BREAKING++ Leading climate scientists in the UK have written to senior editors in broadcast media - and OFCOM and IPSO: "To express our concern about recent media coverage of extreme weather, climate change and net-zero and to urge you…to inform public audiences of the scientific links"
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Reposted by Leo Barasi
Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 21/06/2026
It seems to have become commonplace to blame net zero for Britain’s high energy bills and/or weak job market… … and I guess I’ll have to explain again why there is very little evidence of this. Britain has plenty of economic problems; net zero is not high on that list (though climate change is) 🧵
giftarticle.ft.com
Ed Miliband would be ‘noose around neck’ of job creation as chancellor, union boss warns
Comments by Sharon Graham come as Burnham team explores key government appointments
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Leo Barasi @leobarasi.bsky.social · 20/06/2026
well, shit
Met Office forecast of 39C in London on Tuesday
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Leo Barasi @leobarasi.bsky.social · 20/06/2026
well, shit
Met Office forecast of 39C in London on Tuesday
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Reposted by Leo Barasi
David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
This heatwave brought to you by TotalEnergies.
lemonde.fr
Heatwave hits more than half of France's population
Nearly 36 million French people, more than one in two, were affected by an orange heat alert issued by the weather office, the second-highest such warning urging residents to be 'very cautious.'
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Kate Mackenzie @katemac.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
This might be one of the funniest chart about energy scenarios I’ve seen. You can hardly see “actual” for gas
Winners and Losers
The IEA overestimated gas growth in Asia and underestimated solar

Gas
• Forecast 547 TWh
• Actual 17 TWh

Solar
• Forecast 465 TWh
• Actual 1,333 TWh

Note: Shows expected growth in Asian power generation between 2018 and 2025, based on actual 2018 generation, actual 2025 generation, and the 2018 World Energy Outlook's Current Policies Scenario estimates for 2025. Actual 2025 generation figures are from Ember.
Source: International Energy Agency, Ember, Bloomberg Opinion calculations
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Leo Barasi @leobarasi.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
The kids have zero immune system against ads, ITV is blowing their minds
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Reposted by Leo Barasi
Torsten Bell @torstenbell.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
Blair putting on full display what is in many ways his special ability - to lay out a political argument grounded in his own view of global trends (globalisation in the 2000s, tech in the 2020s). But… institute.global/insights/pol...
institute.global
The Labour Party Is Playing With Fire Over Its Future and the Future of the Country
In this essay, Tony Blair sets out the need for a new agenda for Britain.
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Leo Barasi @leobarasi.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
Expect 250+ additional deaths from the heatwave, says health statistician at Imperial, Dr Garyfallos Konstantinoudis
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Reposted by Leo Barasi
Leo Barasi @leobarasi.bsky.social · 25/05/2026
I sometimes think about how climate models say the UK normally won’t get any days above 35C at current global warming and we’ve now had them in 3 of the last 5 years
Map of how many days the UK will see on average each year above 35C at 1.5C of warming (just over where we are now), showing we shouldn’t expect any. Upshot, models have underestimated extreme heat for NW Europe
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Reposted by Leo Barasi
John Gibbons 🇵🇸 🇺🇦 🇪🇺 @thinkorswim.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
Looks like one of those terrifying 2050 #climate projection graphics, but no, that’s a short-term forecast for France until… May 29th.
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Reposted by Leo Barasi
Mika Rantanen @mikarantane.bsky.social · 25/05/2026
London Heathrow new all-time May heat record 34.4 °C (Data from climexp.knmi.nl available since 1960)
Time series of highest May temperature in 1960–2026 in London Heathrow, UK. Data retrieved from KNMI Climate Explorer.
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Leo Barasi @leobarasi.bsky.social · 25/05/2026
I sometimes think about how climate models say the UK normally won’t get any days above 35C at current global warming and we’ve now had them in 3 of the last 5 years
Map of how many days the UK will see on average each year above 35C at 1.5C of warming (just over where we are now), showing we shouldn’t expect any. Upshot, models have underestimated extreme heat for NW Europe
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Reposted by Leo Barasi
Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 25/05/2026
Is climate change change making the European heat more likely? Yup! Deep red is at least 5X more likely.
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Leo Barasi @leobarasi.bsky.social · 25/05/2026
It will be record hot today because of climate change. It will keep getting hotter until the world reaches net zero emissions. These are the facts of the case and they are undisputed.
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Leo Barasi @leobarasi.bsky.social · 25/05/2026
It will be record hot today because of climate change. It will keep getting hotter until the world reaches net zero emissions. These are the facts of the case and they are undisputed.
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Reposted by Leo Barasi
Arieh Kovler @ariehkovler.com · 25/05/2026
How do they rise up?
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Leo Barasi @leobarasi.bsky.social · 23/05/2026
12) Juice by Tim Winton. Best climate novel I’ve read in ages. Post breakdown Australia. Angry, gripping, occasionally hopeful, long and I wished it was longer.
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Reposted by Leo Barasi
James Murray @james-bg.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
ICYM Latest blog is on how I am fucking terrified about climate change and you should be too. www.businessgreen.com/blog-post/45...
businessgreen.com
Adapt or cry: 12 random thoughts on climate adaptation
The Climate Change Committee's massive new report on climate risks and resilience is utterly terrifying - it demands a response
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Leo Barasi @leobarasi.bsky.social · 16/05/2026
Seeing as Never Let Me Go is on the Guardian list, time to read this again. Quelle surprise there’s no Banks, no Pratchett www.theguardian.com/books/2011/m...
theguardian.com
Iain M Banks: Science fiction is no place for dabblers
'Write about what you love, rather than what you have a degree of contempt for'
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Leo Barasi @leobarasi.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
It's king IN the north
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Reposted by Leo Barasi
Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 03/05/2026
This time next week there's going to be a lot of hot takes and spin knocking around, especially re: Reform. I've written a short primer for @politicshome.bsky.social on how to stay sane and navigate the immediate post-election chaos. Thread here too. 🧵 www.politicshome.com/opinion/arti...
politicshome.com
Misunderstood, over interpreted, unrepresentative: How to read the local election results
The internet will be teeming with hot takes as soon as the first declarations come in on Friday morning. To help you navigate a weekend of noise, h...
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Leo Barasi @leobarasi.bsky.social · 02/05/2026
My experience too. It's more comfortable and cheaper than running a gas boiler and I live in a Victorian terrace.
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Leo Barasi @leobarasi.bsky.social · 02/05/2026
Reminds me of another finance guy’s line, ‘who cares if Miami is six metres underwater’ www.ft.com/content/ee83...
Extract from janan Ganesh article, that physical reality matters more than investors think
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Leo Barasi @leobarasi.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
Recent Harvard-led study on nuclear power and cancer in Nature Comms found: "cancer mortality among individuals aged 65+, associated with proximity to nuclear power plants, averaged 4266 deaths [in the US] per year" Which is wild! At odds with anything I've seen BUT...
nature.com
National analysis of cancer mortality and proximity to nuclear power plants in the United States - Nature Communications
‘Populations residing near nuclear power plants may experience low-level chronic exposure to ionizing radiation through environmental release pathways. In here the authors find higher cancer mortality...
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Leo Barasi @leobarasi.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
Well.
bbc.co.uk
Church attendance report pulled after YouGov finds 'fraudulent' responses
The original report claimed a rise in young people attending church in England and Wales.
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Leo Barasi @leobarasi.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
Any minute now, someone is going to do something to stop Steve Hilton (yes, that SH) becoming governor of CA. Any minute now… (2.5 months to go)
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Rob Davies @byrobdavies.bsky.social · 21/03/2026
This is utterly jaw-dropping. A school that bans Atwood, Zadie Smith, Terry effing Pratchett and *literal George Orwell* is actively harming its pupils. www.indexoncensorship.org/2026/03/scho...
indexoncensorship.org
School book banning escalates in the UK as Greater Manchester secondary school censors scores of books - Index on Censorship
A school librarian faced a disciplinary hearing and scores of books were removed from her school library after she stocked Laura Bates’ Men Who Hate Women
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Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
How real or not is the apparent backlash to Net Zero, clean energy etc in the UK? I have some new research out with @ippr.org today. Easily the most in-depth look at this! Review of existing polling, new polling and message testing, interviews with ambivalent voters, etc Here's a taster 🧵
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Leo Barasi @leobarasi.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
Record-breaking 43.3C yesterday in the US, the country's hottest March day ever. Rapid science study finds it couldn't have got that hot without climate change caused by burning fossil fuels. Seems like one hell of a good time to stop.
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