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Lee Crawfurd

@leecrawfurd.bsky.social
4.6K followers 1.4K following 2K posts

Senior Research Fellow at the Center for Global Development www.cgdev.org/expert/lee-crawfurd

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Lee Crawfurd @leecrawfurd.bsky.social · 18h
1/6th of World Bank spending is for private sector development. What does it actually do? Álvaro González proposes a simple test - it should aim to correct market failures. Only 29 of 156 current projects pass. www.cgdev.org/publication/...
cgdev.org
A Rule for Private Sector Subsidies: Additionality and Competitive Allocation at the World Bank Group
The World Bank has yet to pin down a working definition for what it labels as private sector development (PSD). At different times during the past half-century, some of that work might reasonably be d...
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Center for Global Development @cgdev.org · 16/09/2026
Could funding GPE help bring more World Bank financing into education? Biniam Bedasso, @leecrawfurd.bsky.social, and Karen Mundy find that countries receiving @gpforeducation.bsky.social grants are more likely to subsequently receive IDA education financing, especially in LMICs. go.cgdev.org/4xxraRr
go.cgdev.org
The Best Way to Get More World Bank Money into Education Might Be to Fund GPE
In the current international aid environment, where bilateral funding for education has been significantly cut, multilateral financing mechanisms are likely to play an increasingly important role in enabling low- and middle-income countries to access th...
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Aveek Bhattacharya @aveek18.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Another opportunity to dig out my @smfthinktank.bsky.social paper with @leecrawfurd.bsky.social an @lgilbert.co making the case for a national lead screening program: www.smf.co.uk/publications...
smf.co.uk
Failure to lead: The case for a UK lead screening programme - Social Market Foundation.
This briefing examines the scale of lead exposure among children in the UK and makes the case for a national screening programme.
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Center for Global Development @cgdev.org · 10/09/2026
Does an extra year of schooling really deliver little to no economic return? 🎒 @leecrawfurd.bsky.social re-examines the evidence and finds returns of around 5–6% per additional year of schooling, even after correcting for publication bias. www.cgdev.org/publication/...
cgdev.org
The Returns to Education: A Comment
Clark and Nielsen (2026) assemble a large dataset of quasi-experimental studies and argue that the causal return to an extra year of schooling is close to zero once one corrects for the selective publ...
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Will Reid-Tong @willthong.com · 10/09/2026
Really good stuff from @paulnowaktuc.bsky.social here - more Labour MPs should be saying the same. Mahmood's ILR reforms are unfair, will undermine migrant integration and only embolden the far right's attack on the world's best and brightest who want to contribute to the UK 👏
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Lee Crawfurd @leecrawfurd.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
What are the returns to education? Most studies say 9%. A new meta-analysis claims publication bias means the true number is 0-3%. I replicated their analysis & think a fairer number is more like 6%. Blog: cgdev.org/blog/school-... Paper: www.cgdev.org/publication/...
cgdev.org
School Pays, Even If There Is Publication Bias
A new paper by Gregory Clark and Christian Nielsen makes the bold claim that the true average increase in earnings for each extra year of school is somewhere between 0 and 3 percent. Not the 9 percent...
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Aveek Bhattacharya @aveek18.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Important piece by @ruthjoneslabour.bsky.social in @labourlist.bsky.social, calling for the national screening committee to hurry up and review screening for harmful lead exposure. Ours is a "remarkably complacent and cavalier approach". We must take the issue more seriously, as in the US/France.
labourlist.org
'Lead is still harming British children. Why aren’t we screening for it? - LabourList
Screening for lead needs to become the norm. We cannot afford to continue to wait, for the children’s sake.
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C. Kirabo Jackson @kirabojackson.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
Classic result: countries with higher test scores grow faster; years of schooling add little once scores are included. Concern: reverse causality—in the original evidence, some measured growth occurs before scores are observed. I revisit both with cleaner timing, newer data— kirabojackson.com/blog
kirabojackson.com
Blog — C. Kirabo Jackson
Writing and analysis by C. Kirabo Jackson on education, human capital, public policy, and the economy.
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Center for Global Development @cgdev.org · 07/08/2026
Where should new philanthropy invest in education? @leecrawfurd.bsky.social highlights 34 organizations working across foundational learning, school access, early childhood, nutrition, education technology, and more, with an eye toward scale and cost-effectiveness. go.cgdev.org/4xopSZr
go.cgdev.org
How to Spend Your AI Philanthropy on Education
If I worked at a frontier AI lab and just became an overnight billionaire, my first thought would be to do something simple and give it all to GiveDirectly or GiveWell. But organisations in the busine...
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Lee Crawfurd @leecrawfurd.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
New working paper suggests that education may have played a bigger role than previously thought in the first industrial revolution in England www.lse.ac.uk/asset-librar...
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Noam Angrist @noamangrist.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
🔎 New data show striking uptick in government prioritization of learning around 2018 WDR + more uptake of evidence to improve learning. New analysis based on gov policies w/ @leecrawfurd.bsky.social @theomitchell1.bsky.social Biniam Bedasso Maleeha Hameed Euan Ritchie www.cgdev.org/blog/are-dev...
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Lee Crawfurd @leecrawfurd.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Are developing countries doing "what works" in education? Increasingly yes! At least according to our new analysis of 743 national education plans. @theomitchell1.bsky.social @noamangrist.bsky.social Biniam Bedasso, Maleeha Hamid, Euan Ritchie www.cgdev.org/blog/are-dev...
cgdev.org
Are Developing Countries Tackling the Learning Crisis with What Works?
Here we present a new analysis of national government education sector plans from 134 countries spanning nearly three decades (2000–2025), which we refer to throughout as “education plans”. We see cle...
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Lee Crawfurd @leecrawfurd.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
"MPs call for routine lead testing for children living near abandoned UK mines" www.ft.com/content/b15d...
ft.com
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Lee Crawfurd @leecrawfurd.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
Really important new paper on lead: HALF of global exposure may be coming from FOOD www.medrxiv.org/content/10.6...
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Lee Crawfurd @leecrawfurd.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
"Urban Indian private schools at risk of proximity to toxic lead sites" www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/ene...
thehindu.com
Urban Indian private schools at risk of proximity to toxic lead sites: report
A report reveals that urban India's private schools are at risk due to proximity to toxic lead sites, impacting children's health.
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Lee Crawfurd @leecrawfurd.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
So this was fun... its relatively rare for academic journals to publish formal critical comments on articles. I just received my first... and its from the lead industry. Here's our rebuttal: "Big Lead is Still Downplaying the Harms" www.cgdev.org/blog/big-lea...
cgdev.org
Big Lead is Still Downplaying the Harms
Our recent paper in Environmental Pollution estimates that lead battery recycling might account for a third of global lead exposure, significantly larger than previous estimates (open access CGD worki...
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Lee Crawfurd @leecrawfurd.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
Reminder this is the last week to send us your proposals for research on global lead poisoning! www.cgdev.org/blog/momentu...
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Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
The correction bsky.app/profile/jdpo...
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Refugee Action @refugeeaction.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
"I feel no different from someone in an open prison." Chuma describes life in the UK's asylum system, where people are often banned from working while they wait for a decision, living in inhumane conditions.
A postcard from the UK asylum system. The card features text expressing feelings of restriction in an open prison environment. A group of people stand near a fence in the image. It mentions Chuma, who came to the UK from Zimbabwe.
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Lee Crawfurd @leecrawfurd.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
The UK gov wants asylum seekers to repay £10k of their accommodation costs. We ran the numbers, gov could raise 3.5x more in tax & lower support costs by asking asylum seekers to work instead (with @helen-dempster.bsky.social & @ianmitchell1.bsky.social) cgdev.org/blog/asking-...
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Lee Crawfurd @leecrawfurd.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
52 percent of Jakarta Schools located near heavy metal-contaminated sites www.thejakartapost.com/indonesia/20...
thejakartapost.com
The Jakarta Post - Still bold, fiercely independent
- #1 English news source in Indonesia. Still bold, fiercely independent
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Lee Crawfurd @leecrawfurd.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
No taxation without representation in Africa www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
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Lee Crawfurd @leecrawfurd.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
More over-70s die of diarrhoea than under-5s washeconomics.com/2026/07/10/m...
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Lee Crawfurd @leecrawfurd.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
Upward intergenerational spill-overs from education! When Chinese people go to university, their parents stop smoking www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
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Lee Crawfurd @leecrawfurd.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
Traditional kohl eyeliner is sometimes made from near pure lead (in this case 30%). Its application to children is common in the Middle East and North Africa. This observational study in Ghana found eyeliner use increased odds of high blood lead rates by 41x www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
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Lee Crawfurd @leecrawfurd.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
Traditional kohl eyeliner is sometimes made from near pure lead (in this case 30%). Its application to children is common in the Middle East and North Africa. This observational study in Ghana found eyeliner use increased odds of high blood lead rates by 41x www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
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Aveek Bhattacharya @aveek18.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
I have a piece with Niamh O Regan in @newstatesman1913.bsky.social mapping child lead exposure by parliamentary constituency, drawing on modelling by @leecrawfurd.bsky.social www.newstatesman.com/spotlight/he...
newstatesman.com
Revealed: Britain's lead poisioning legacy could still be affecting children
Hundreds of thousands could be impacted. New mapping highlights the parts of the country most at risk
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Lee Crawfurd @leecrawfurd.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
Some unpleasant lead recycling arithmetic from Micaella Rogers - Demand for car batteries in small low-income countries like Malawi is too low to sustain safe recycling - Unsafe recyclers in Malawi can pay more than safe recyclers elsewhere, so export doesn't work either
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Lee Crawfurd @leecrawfurd.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
20 years later, can we track down the people taught to read in primary school through different RCTs? We're going to try, here are the studies we're looking at, are we missing any?
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Lee Crawfurd @leecrawfurd.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Revealed: Britain’s lead poisioning legacy could still be affecting children (featuring an interactive map to look up how bad it is in your area) www.newstatesman.com/spotlight/he...
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Lee Crawfurd @leecrawfurd.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
The World Bank Has Invested $3 Billion in Drinking Water. We Don’t Know if the Water Has Lead www.newsecuritybeat.org/2026/06/the-...
newsecuritybeat.org
The World Bank Has Invested $3 Billion in Drinking Water. We Don’t Know if the Water Has Lead.
This article was originally published by the Center for Global Development. This spring in Washington, DC, World Bank president Ajay Banga announced a major new initiative, “Water Forward,” with [...]
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Lee Crawfurd @leecrawfurd.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
"Study warns Cambodia may be overlooking hidden toxic pollution risks to thousands of children" phnompenhpost.com/national/stu...
phnompenhpost.com
Study warns Cambodia may be overlooking hidden toxic pollution risks to thousands of children - Phnom Penh Post
Cambodia may be significantly underestimating the number of schoolchildren at risk from toxic pollutants, with new research warning that only a small fraction
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Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 26/06/2026
🗣️ Published today in @aeajournals.bsky.social. Ethan Lewis and I use a visa lottery, as a nationwide randomized experiment, to test the effects of foreign labor on US firms and workers. doi.org/10.1257/app.... A concise summary from @nber.org —> www.nber.org/digest/20221...
Abstract: 
US firms hiring foreign workers in low-skill nonfarm jobs face a binding quota on the "H-2B" visa, allocated in part through a randomized lottery. We evaluate the quota's marginal impact using the lottery, a novel firm survey, and a pre-analysis plan. Firms exogenously employing more H-2B workers in low-skill jobs increase production (elasticity 0.20–0.22), investment (1.5–2.1), and profits (0.15). The elasticity of substitution between H-2B and US workers is very low (0.8–2.2). Thus, the effect on US employment is zero or positive overall, and positive in rural areas. Forensic analysis suggests similarly low substitutability of black-market labor.
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A.S. Paglayan @aspaglayan.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
Brief pause from Messi's magic to share my new piece in the Annual Review of Political Science: "Education as a Political Institution" which explains why we should stop treating education as just another public service Open access here: tinyurl.com/yezzkam5
tinyurl.com
Education as a Political Institution
Education institutions are fundamentally political. They mold political values, shape inequality, create opportunities for patronage through teaching jobs, and can even be used for political surveilla...
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Lee Crawfurd @leecrawfurd.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
How common is child sexual harassment and abuse in schools? How you ask matters. In Malawi, 4% of 8-12yr olds report sexual harassment or abuse by school staff, if you ask face-to-face. Let them answer privately on a tablet, it that rises to 17%. 1 in 6 children aged 8-12.
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New Security Beat @newsecuritybeat.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
The World Bank spent over $3 billion funding water supply projects. But when the Water Institute tested in Ghana, Mali, and Niger, over 82% of rural water systems contained lead. In a new piece, Lee Crawfurd and Caroline Mallory call for lead-free parts and additional testing. New on #NSB.
newsecuritybeat.org
The World Bank Has Invested $3 Billion in Drinking Water. We Don’t Know if the Water Has Lead.
This article was originally published by the Center for Global Development. This spring in Washington, DC, World Bank president Ajay Banga announced a major new initiative, “Water Forward,” with [...]
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Lee Crawfurd @leecrawfurd.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
What's the point of academic conferences? Answering this question recently, my mind went straight to a 2020 paper by de Leon & McQuillin. One big conference was cancelled due to a Hurricane. Papers were cited less & there were less diverse collaborations. Conferences help scientific progress!
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Lee Crawfurd @leecrawfurd.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
"Hidden danger: Thousands of Bangladesh’s schools lie close to toxic battery recycling sites" www.thedailystar.net/health/news/...
thedailystar.net
Hidden danger: Thousands of Bangladesh’s schools lie close to toxic battery recycling sites
More than 8,800 schools in Bangladesh are located within five kilometres of a documented toxic site, and several sit less than 100 metres from informal battery-breaking yards.
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Lee Crawfurd @leecrawfurd.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
"Why So Many Latin American Schools Sit Near Toxic Sites" www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-schoo...
riotimesonline.com
Why So Many Latin American Schools Sit Near Toxic Sites
A new map finds millions of Latin American children study near toxic sites, from Bogota to Lima, exposing how little most countries actually count.
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Lee Crawfurd @leecrawfurd.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
"Nigeria's Solar Revolution Depends on Lead Batteries. Nobody Knows Where Most End Up." www.energytransitionafrica.com/insights/art...
energytransitionafrica.com
Nigeria's Solar Revolution Depends on Lead Batteries. Nobody Knows Where Most End Up.
Nigeria's solar expansion relies heavily on lead-acid batteries that typically fail within a few years. Yet nobody can say with confidence where most are recycled or disposed of. ETA Analysis…
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Lee Crawfurd @leecrawfurd.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
Nearly 2 decades after the suit was filed, hundreds of Peruvian plaintiffs have secured a $150m payout from US owners of a lead smelter www.businesswire.com/news/home/20...
businesswire.com
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Lee Crawfurd @leecrawfurd.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
"Elon Musk Said Zero People Have Died. Researchers Have Already Estimated 332,000 Deaths." mitchthelawyer.substack.com/p/elon-musk-...
mitchthelawyer.substack.com
Elon Musk Said "Zero People Have Died." Researchers Have Already Estimated 332,000 Deaths.
91 million deaths once prevented, one chainsaw, and the toll many MAGA Republicans swear is zero
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Lee Crawfurd @leecrawfurd.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
The World Bank Has Invested $3 Billion in Drinking Water. We Don’t Know if the Water Has Lead. www.cgdev.org/blog/world-b...
cgdev.org
The World Bank Has Invested $3 Billion in Drinking Water. We Don’t Know if the Water Has Lead.
The World Bank lending portfolio currently includes over $3 billion for 81 active water supply projects across low- and middle-income countries. Not one project includes lead testing in drinking…
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Lee Crawfurd @leecrawfurd.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
"86% of Metro Manila schools near toxic sites" www.philstar.com/headlines/20...
philstar.com
86% of Metro Manila schools near toxic sites – US study
A new study bares an urban pattern of schools within five kilometers of contaminated sites.
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Lee Crawfurd @leecrawfurd.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
Everything we learnt about lead exposure at the 2026 global conference www.cgdev.org/blog/what-we...
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Lee Crawfurd @leecrawfurd.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
El 26% de las escuelas en México y Ghana están cerca de un foco de contaminación www.sinembargo.mx/4822841/el-2...
sinembargo.mx
https://www.sinembargo.mx/4822841/el-26-de-las-escuelas-en-mexico-y-ghana-estan-cerca-de-un-foco-de-contaminacion/
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Lee Crawfurd @leecrawfurd.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
"Pollution near schools may be undermining learning, Researcher warns" (its me, I'm the researcher) www.myjoyonline.com/pollution-ne...
myjoyonline.com
Pollution near schools may be undermining learning, Researcher warns - MyJoyOnline
A researcher behind a recent study that found thousands of Ghanaian pupils attend schools near contaminated sites says pollution may be having a bigger impact on children’s learning than many…
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Lee Crawfurd @leecrawfurd.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
Un informe especializado advierte de que una de cada cuatro escuelas en México está cerca de lugares contaminados elpais.com/mexico/2026-...
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Lee Crawfurd @leecrawfurd.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
Now out in the Journal of Development Studies! www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
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Lee Crawfurd @leecrawfurd.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
"Thousands of Ghanaian pupils attend schools near toxic sites, study finds" www.myjoyonline.com/thousands-of...
myjoyonline.com
Thousands of Ghanaian pupils attend schools near toxic sites, study finds - MyJoyOnline
A new international study has found that hundreds of thousands of schoolchildren in Ghana attend schools located close to documented contaminated sites, raising concerns about children’s exposure to…
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