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Michael Hoffman

@leboncondorcet.bsky.social
1.6K followers 799 following 54 posts

Chief Economist at the US GAO, providing the evidence base for economic policymaking in the public interest. Taught at American, PhD at Duke, undergrad at Michigan. Views my own.

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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
Michael Hoffman @leboncondorcet.bsky.social · 11/07/2026
What does whale oil have to do with critical minerals? They both demonstrate the power of innovation to drive substitution of seemingly essential commodities. My new Substack describes the research and economic history on this underappreciated process. #econsky open.substack.com/pub/macroeco...
open.substack.com
Substitution through innovation
How cycles of shocks and adaptation are the constant of economic history
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Michael Hoffman @leboncondorcet.bsky.social · 11/07/2026
What does whale oil have to do with critical minerals? They both demonstrate the power of innovation to drive substitution of seemingly essential commodities. My new Substack describes the research and economic history on this underappreciated process. #econsky open.substack.com/pub/macroeco...
open.substack.com
Substitution through innovation
How cycles of shocks and adaptation are the constant of economic history
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
Søren Torbjørn Svendsen @sorentsvendsen.eurosky.social · 10/07/2026
Though it isn't journals I thought it might be of interest if you don't already this register 👇 bsky.app/profile/czim...
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
Jonas Nahm @jonasnahm.com · 20/06/2026
8/ You don't have to make the panels to get that security; you can import them, and the cheapest are Chinese. Making them is a separate, costlier bet—owning the industry, worth it where you can win. In solar you perhaps can't: China holds 80% of every stage. Buy and deploy.
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Jonas Nahm @jonasnahm.com · 20/06/2026
7/ The advantage comes in two forms. The first is energy security. LNG has to keep arriving through straits a rival can close. A solar panel, once built, runs 25–30 years on sunlight no one can cut off. Cut the fuel and the power stops; cut the panels and the lights stay on.
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Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 14/06/2026
🧵In Washington, analysts and politicians alike seem increasingly resigned to the idea that the only way the government will engage in fiscal consolidation is in the aftermath of a bond market crisis. #econsky #policysky www.ft.com/content/5ade...
ft.com
Sooner or later, America is going to have to reckon with the debt
There is a bigger political constituency for fiscal consolidation than many think
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Michael Hoffman @leboncondorcet.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
Wanted to draw your attention to GAO's audit of the accuracy of the BLS "Jobs Report": in short, a valued resource that is at risk due to the steady drop in response rates for key surveys. We made three recommendations to BLS and highlight some additional reform options www.gao.gov/products/gao...
gao.gov
U.S. GAO - Federal Statistics: Stakeholders Said Jobs Report Generally Meets Their Needs, but Opportunities Exist to Improve Data Quality
FEDERAL STATISTICS: Stakeholders Said Jobs Report Generally Meets Their Needs, but Opportunities Exist to Improve Data Quality The Bureau of Labor...
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
U.S. Government Accountability Office @gao.gov · 02/06/2026
Federal Statistics: Stakeholders Said Jobs Report Generally Meets Their Needs, but Opportunities Exist to Improve Data Quality www.gao.gov/products/gao-26-107538?…
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
U.S. Government Accountability Office @gao.gov · 02/06/2026
The monthly Jobs Report provides employment information that can help businesses, financial institutions, and the government make important decisions. Today’s blog looks at how this report is made and what challenges this effort faces: ow.ly/kCfU50Z4TFX
Image shows people in suits and business casual dress walking past an office building.
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
Capital Weather @capitalweather.com · 31/05/2026
📸 Great Falls is roaring — water in the "action" range this morning. Great Falls Park was packed. 💧 Track river levels in our new Forecast Lab 🌤️ June opens beautifully. Clouds build late tonight, lows 50s–60. Monday: Mostly sunny, highs mid-70s to 80. 📸 Kevin Ambrose
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Dani Sandler @dismalscientist86.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
New Census Working Paper: "The Microstructure of AI Diffusion: Evidence from Firms, Business Functions, and Worker Tasks" by Kathryn Bonney, Cory Breaux, Emin Dinlersoz, Lucia Foster, John Haltiwanger, and Aditya Pande www.census.gov/library/work...
census.gov
The Microstructure of AI Diffusion: Evidence from Firms, Business Functions, and Worker Tasks
Using new Business Trends and Outlook Survey data, we find AI use prevalent in large firms and knowledge-intensive sectors; augments tasks; labor declines rare.
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
U.S. Government Accountability Office @gao.gov · 16/04/2026
WatchBlog post: GAO Follows the Money—Everything You Should Know About Our Audits of Federal Financial Statements www.gao.gov/blog/gao-follows-money-…
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 14/04/2026
This is what I was referring to about people being negatively misinformed www.ft.com/content/9c79...
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Michael Hoffman @leboncondorcet.bsky.social · 05/04/2026
Go Blue! What a Final Four match. Team rising to the occasion.
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
U.S. Government Accountability Office @gao.gov · 30/03/2026
Homeowners Insurance: Premiums Generally Tracked Inflation but Rose More in Disaster-Prone Areas www.gao.gov/products/gao-26-107867?…
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
U.S. Government Accountability Office @gao.gov · 03/04/2026
Federal Debt Management: Treasury Is Meeting Borrowing Needs but the Deteriorating Fiscal Outlook Poses Risks www.gao.gov/products/gao-26-107529?…
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
Wiley Economics, Business, and Finance @wileyeconbiz.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
Announcing the Economic Inquiry 2025 Best Article Award! This year’s standout, chosen by our editors: “Is economics self-correcting? Replications in the American Economic Review.” from Jörg Ankel-Peters, Nathan Fiala & Florian Neubauer. Read the open access article here: ow.ly/Getp50YAXAk
Cover of Economic Inquiry journal featuring a digital globe and text about the 2025 Best Article Award for economics research.
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
Metro @wmata.com · 31/03/2026
Spring is in the air and so are record numbers. Thursday marked the busiest day since 2020 at four stations, with NoMa-Gallaudet U setting a new all-time record! 🌸
Text on a blue background reads "new station records." Bullet points list NoMa-Gallaudet U, West Hyattsville, Silver Spring, and Bethesda. A pink cherry blossom is in the lower right corner.
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Michael Hoffman @leboncondorcet.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
Great discussion here that expertly illustrates the key trade-offs. No easy answers and many goals are in tension. But these kinds of discussions help us make more informed decisions amongst the tough trade-offs.
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 22/03/2026
Senior BIS economist Hyun Song Shin has been named by South Korea’s president to run the Bank of Korea www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
SKorea’s Lee Nominates BIS Official Shin as New BOK Governor
South Korea nominated Shin Hyun Song as the nation’s next central bank governor, charging the senior Bank for International Settlements official with steering monetary policy at a time of growing unce...
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
The reason the Dollar isn't stronger is because markets price a much more hawkish policy shift by central banks in the G10 compared to the Fed. That's moving rate differentials against the Dollar and tempering what otherwise would be an even bigger rise... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-this-...
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RAND @rand.org · 20/03/2026
This new report examines economic shocks in the United States, providing insights that can help anticipate recessions and develop appropriate policy responses.
bit.ly
Understanding the Impacts of Economic Shocks in the United States
The ability to anticipate recessions and develop appropriate policy responses requires a strong understanding of economic shocks and their macroeconomic impacts. A new typology of 20 types of such sho...
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
U.S. Government Accountability Office @gao.gov · 18/03/2026
WatchBlog post: What Are The Lowest-Performing Schools Doing to Improve? www.gao.gov/blog/what-are-lowest-pe…
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
Michael Hoffman @leboncondorcet.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
I have a Substack up that encourages us to look past the illusion of scarcity to see the remarkable ability of the economy to create jobs, universities, housing and more. See how long run data and empirical research make the case for adaptation and innovation as the solution to scarcity. #Econsky
macroeconomicdiscipline.substack.com
Zero Sum (Fixed Pie) Fallacies About the Economy
Taking the long view to reap the benefits of economic adaptation
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
U.S. Government Accountability Office @gao.gov · 10/03/2026
WatchBlog post: Why Fewer Insurers in Dental and Vision Markets Could Matter to You www.gao.gov/blog/why-fewer-insurers…
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
U.S. Government Accountability Office @gao.gov · 10/03/2026
Depending on where you live in the U.S., a small number of companies may control large portions of the dental and vision insurance markets. Today’s WatchBlog post looks at what this market concentration could mean for you: ow.ly/ZVK750YoQqI
Image of a dentist looking in a patient’s mouth using a dental mirror. The dentist wears scrubs, gloves, and a mask.
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Michael Hoffman @leboncondorcet.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
I have a Substack up that encourages us to look past the illusion of scarcity to see the remarkable ability of the economy to create jobs, universities, housing and more. See how long run data and empirical research make the case for adaptation and innovation as the solution to scarcity. #Econsky
macroeconomicdiscipline.substack.com
Zero Sum (Fixed Pie) Fallacies About the Economy
Taking the long view to reap the benefits of economic adaptation
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Michael Hoffman @leboncondorcet.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
Very thoughtful overview of what is becoming a nuanced literature cataloging disparate effects.
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
Scott Lincicome @scottlincicome.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
"Happy Birthday, Wealth of Nations" www.econlib.org/econlog/happ...
econlib.org
Happy Birthday, Wealth of Nations - Econlib
Today marks the 250th anniversary of the publication of Adam Smith‘s An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations on March 9, 1776. Wealth of Nations remains a remarkable book, not…
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Michael Hoffman @leboncondorcet.bsky.social · 26/02/2026
Love this concept and hoping for robust participation by federal economists.
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
Alexander Kustov @akoustov.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
🚨 Please share widely! 🚨 I'm hiring a postdoc (from Aug 1) to help build a new research program on politically sustainable immigration policies at Notre Dame. Looking for a social scientist with strong quant skills, familiarity with new computational tools, and interest in public-facing research.
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Michael Hoffman @leboncondorcet.bsky.social · 26/02/2026
Wolverines in Columbus tonight is absolutely epic. If you are not watching this game you are missing out. Tied in OT with 8.5 seconds left.
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David Wessel @davidmwessel.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
Chris Hughes & Josh Younger criticize the Fed’s ample reserves framework, see IORB as a subsidy to the banks. Don Kohn and Bill English disagree. via @brookings.edu Hutchins Center www.brookings.edu/articles/the...
brookings.edu
The Fed's ample reserves framework: A report and a response | Brookings
A proposal, and response, about the Fed's ample reserves framework.
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
Society of Government Economists @sgeecon.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
Looking for a way to get more involved with the Society of Government Economists? Nominations for the board of directors are being accepted through March 3rd. It’s a great group! www.sge-econ.org/about/electi...
sge-econ.org
Nominations for 2026 SGE Board of Directors – The Society of Government Economists
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
Michael Hoffman @leboncondorcet.bsky.social · 19/02/2026
The economics journal and working paper Starter Pack has expanded considerably! Many thanks to those who have shared or provided suggestions, especially @sorentsvendsen.bsky.social and @o.simardcasanova.net with many good suggestions.
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Michael Hoffman @leboncondorcet.bsky.social · 17/02/2026
Friends, I have created a Starter Pack of economics journals (and working paper series) active on Bluesky. Hope this is useful for academic, policy, and industry economists alike. #Econsky Please let me know if there are any that I missed!
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
U.S. Government Accountability Office @gao.gov · 12/02/2026
WatchBlog post: When Members of Congress Need Answers to Complex Questions—They Come to GAO www.gao.gov/blog/when-members-congr…
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
U.S. Government Accountability Office @gao.gov · 12/02/2026
When members of Congress need answers to complex, difficult questions, they come to GAO. How do we get them these answers? Find out in our new blog post and podcast: ow.ly/bpMj50YclSF
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Michael Hoffman @leboncondorcet.bsky.social · 29/01/2026
Major, documented, and validated good governance impacts.
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
Duke Sanford @dukesanford.bsky.social · 26/01/2026
What makes creating policy in a democracy challenging? We asked Congressman David Price, who helped start Duke’s public policy program and represented North Carolina’s Fourth District in the U.S. House of Representatives for 34 years. 📹 Watch his response: youtube.com/shorts/1TRMy...
David Price holding up his book, titled The Congressional Experience. Text says: What makes creating policy in a democracy?
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
U.S. Government Accountability Office @gao.gov · 16/01/2026
Medicare pays hospitals to help offset on-the-job training costs for a capped number of resident physicians. In 2023, that cap was raised. GAO’s Leslie Gordon discusses how this new funding was allocated to hospitals across the country on Federal News Network: ow.ly/bzrf50XYaTj
Image of Leslie Gordon, GAO Director, Health Care with quote “Medicare is the biggest funder of graduate medical education. We've noticed misalignment in how medical residency is distributed across the country and where those education dollars go.”
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Michael Hoffman @leboncondorcet.bsky.social · 19/01/2026
Good morning all: GAO is now on Bluesky, follow here! bsky.app/profile/usga...
bsky.app
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Michael Hoffman @leboncondorcet.bsky.social · 12/01/2026
Co-sign!
washingtonpost.com
Supporters press for a DC memorial to Thomas Paine, whose writings helped fuel the Revolutionary War
British-born Thomas Paine helped inspire the 13 English colonies to declare independence and form the United States of America
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
Liberal Currents @liberalcurrents.com · 06/01/2026
"The ethos of the liberal international order represented genuine progress over the destructive anarchy of trade war and military conflict, and the pernicious ideologies that gave rise to them." (from 2019) www.liberalcurrents.com/economic-coo...
liberalcurrents.com
Economic Cooperation in Furtherance of Peace: Lessons from the Postwar Era
During and after World War II the architects of the economic institutions of the liberal international order articulated a compelling rationale for the structure and rules of the International Monetar...
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Michael Hoffman @leboncondorcet.bsky.social · 30/12/2025
Nice, data-oriented background on AI firm market valuations.
ft.com
How the AI ‘bubble’ compares to history
US stock valuations are higher than before 1929 Wall Street crash but the dominance of a single sector has precedents
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Foreign Affairs @foreignaffairs.com · 29/12/2025
End this year’s reading with the best articles we published in 2025, as selected by our editors: fam.ag/3MWVHqn
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Michael Hoffman @leboncondorcet.bsky.social · 25/12/2025
In my latest Substack I argue that the economic security that people and policymakers desire is best achieved through economic diversification. I describe the types of economic diversification, the empirical evidence on their benefits, and the policy strategies for encouraging diversification.
macroeconomicdiscipline.substack.com
Diversification—it's not just for your portfolio
How diversified industries and supply chains produce resilient economies
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Michael Hoffman @leboncondorcet.bsky.social · 25/12/2025
In my latest Substack I argue that the economic security that people and policymakers desire is best achieved through economic diversification. I describe the types of economic diversification, the empirical evidence on their benefits, and the policy strategies for encouraging diversification.
macroeconomicdiscipline.substack.com
Diversification—it's not just for your portfolio
How diversified industries and supply chains produce resilient economies
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
Gábor Békés @gaborbekes.bsky.social · 19/06/2018
Dear Econ friends. Looking for material for a case study teaching diff-in-diffs. It should be (1) interesting beyond health/development policy (2) come with available data to use/replicate (3) not super complicated setup. Any suggestions?
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Michael Hoffman @leboncondorcet.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
A great opportunity--highly recommend interested researchers to consider.
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