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Michael Hoffman

@leboncondorcet.bsky.social
1.6K followers 808 following 54 posts

Chief Economist at the US GAO, providing the evidence base for economic policymaking in the public interest. Taught at American, PhD at Duke, undergrad at Michigan. Views my own.

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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
International Energy Agency @iea.org · 10/10/2026
Relatively small amounts of critical minerals underpin trillions of dollars in economic value globally The rare earth export controls introduced in 2025 highlighted the vulnerabilities of concentrated supply chains – & the importance of diversification 👉 buff.ly/B1wPOiC
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
U.S. Government Accountability Office @gao.gov · 07/10/2026
WatchBlog post: Tax Fraud Costs Up to $304 Billion Each Year www.gao.gov/blog/tax-fraud-costs-30…
gao.gov
GAO Report
WatchBlog post: Tax Fraud Costs Up to $304 Billion Each Year https://www.gao.gov/blog/tax-fraud-costs-304-billion-each-year\?utm_medium\=social\&utm_source\=bluesky\&utm_campaign\=usgao
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
U.S. Government Accountability Office @gao.gov · 05/10/2026
86% of U.S. properties that are at high risk of flooding don’t have insurance for it. Why are so many homeowners going without it? Find out in today’s WatchBlog post: ow.ly/KkKc50ZTCMX
Image shows an aerial view of homes in Florida flooded by Hurricane Debby.
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
U.S. Government Accountability Office @gao.gov · 05/10/2026
WatchBlog post: As Flood Risks Increase, Most Americans Still Don't Have Insurance for It (Interactive Map) www.gao.gov/blog/flood-risks-increa…
gao.gov
GAO Report
WatchBlog post: As Flood Risks Increase, Most Americans Still Don't Have Insurance for It (Interactive Map) https://www.gao.gov/blog/flood-risks-increase-most-americans-still-dont-have-insurance-it-in
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Michael Hoffman @leboncondorcet.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Here I thought FIBA Women's gold match was the main event. 😂
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Michael Hoffman @leboncondorcet.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
As in, the guy Locke spends half a book trashing? I am intrigued!
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Michael Hoffman @leboncondorcet.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
It is a challenging time for parents under any circumstances, wishing you all the best and good health.
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
Michael Hoffman @leboncondorcet.bsky.social · 11/07/2026
What does whale oil have to do with critical minerals? They both demonstrate the power of innovation to drive substitution of seemingly essential commodities. My new Substack describes the research and economic history on this underappreciated process. #econsky open.substack.com/pub/macroeco...
open.substack.com
Substitution through innovation
How cycles of shocks and adaptation are the constant of economic history
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Michael Hoffman @leboncondorcet.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
I think if you find the evidence I've assembled persuasive, you'll conclude that innovations can make even seemingly intractable engineering purposes more flexible, including in various critical minerals, copper, etc.
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Michael Hoffman @leboncondorcet.bsky.social · 11/07/2026
What does whale oil have to do with critical minerals? They both demonstrate the power of innovation to drive substitution of seemingly essential commodities. My new Substack describes the research and economic history on this underappreciated process. #econsky open.substack.com/pub/macroeco...
open.substack.com
Substitution through innovation
How cycles of shocks and adaptation are the constant of economic history
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
Søren Torbjørn Svendsen @sorentsvendsen.eurosky.social · 10/07/2026
Though it isn't journals I thought it might be of interest if you don't already this register 👇 bsky.app/profile/czim...
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Michael Hoffman @leboncondorcet.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
Nice, thank you!
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
Jonas Nahm @jonasnahm.com · 20/06/2026
8/ You don't have to make the panels to get that security; you can import them, and the cheapest are Chinese. Making them is a separate, costlier bet—owning the industry, worth it where you can win. In solar you perhaps can't: China holds 80% of every stage. Buy and deploy.
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
Jonas Nahm @jonasnahm.com · 20/06/2026
7/ The advantage comes in two forms. The first is energy security. LNG has to keep arriving through straits a rival can close. A solar panel, once built, runs 25–30 years on sunlight no one can cut off. Cut the fuel and the power stops; cut the panels and the lights stay on.
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
Michael R Strain @michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 14/06/2026
🧵In Washington, analysts and politicians alike seem increasingly resigned to the idea that the only way the government will engage in fiscal consolidation is in the aftermath of a bond market crisis. #econsky #policysky www.ft.com/content/5ade...
ft.com
Sooner or later, America is going to have to reckon with the debt
There is a bigger political constituency for fiscal consolidation than many think
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Michael Hoffman @leboncondorcet.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
Wanted to draw your attention to GAO's audit of the accuracy of the BLS "Jobs Report": in short, a valued resource that is at risk due to the steady drop in response rates for key surveys. We made three recommendations to BLS and highlight some additional reform options www.gao.gov/products/gao...
gao.gov
U.S. GAO - Federal Statistics: Stakeholders Said Jobs Report Generally Meets Their Needs, but Opportunities Exist to Improve Data Quality
FEDERAL STATISTICS: Stakeholders Said Jobs Report Generally Meets Their Needs, but Opportunities Exist to Improve Data Quality The Bureau of Labor...
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
U.S. Government Accountability Office @gao.gov · 02/06/2026
Federal Statistics: Stakeholders Said Jobs Report Generally Meets Their Needs, but Opportunities Exist to Improve Data Quality www.gao.gov/products/gao-26-107538?…
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
U.S. Government Accountability Office @gao.gov · 02/06/2026
The monthly Jobs Report provides employment information that can help businesses, financial institutions, and the government make important decisions. Today’s blog looks at how this report is made and what challenges this effort faces: ow.ly/kCfU50Z4TFX
Image shows people in suits and business casual dress walking past an office building.
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
Capital Weather @capitalweather.com · 31/05/2026
📸 Great Falls is roaring — water in the "action" range this morning. Great Falls Park was packed. 💧 Track river levels in our new Forecast Lab 🌤️ June opens beautifully. Clouds build late tonight, lows 50s–60. Monday: Mostly sunny, highs mid-70s to 80. 📸 Kevin Ambrose
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
Dani Sandler @dismalscientist86.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
New Census Working Paper: "The Microstructure of AI Diffusion: Evidence from Firms, Business Functions, and Worker Tasks" by Kathryn Bonney, Cory Breaux, Emin Dinlersoz, Lucia Foster, John Haltiwanger, and Aditya Pande www.census.gov/library/work...
census.gov
The Microstructure of AI Diffusion: Evidence from Firms, Business Functions, and Worker Tasks
Using new Business Trends and Outlook Survey data, we find AI use prevalent in large firms and knowledge-intensive sectors; augments tasks; labor declines rare.
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
U.S. Government Accountability Office @gao.gov · 16/04/2026
WatchBlog post: GAO Follows the Money—Everything You Should Know About Our Audits of Federal Financial Statements www.gao.gov/blog/gao-follows-money-…
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 14/04/2026
This is what I was referring to about people being negatively misinformed www.ft.com/content/9c79...
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Michael Hoffman @leboncondorcet.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
Sooner rather than later I hope!
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Michael Hoffman @leboncondorcet.bsky.social · 05/04/2026
Hail, hail!
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Michael Hoffman @leboncondorcet.bsky.social · 05/04/2026
Go Blue! What a Final Four match. Team rising to the occasion.
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
U.S. Government Accountability Office @gao.gov · 30/03/2026
Homeowners Insurance: Premiums Generally Tracked Inflation but Rose More in Disaster-Prone Areas www.gao.gov/products/gao-26-107867?…
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
U.S. Government Accountability Office @gao.gov · 03/04/2026
Federal Debt Management: Treasury Is Meeting Borrowing Needs but the Deteriorating Fiscal Outlook Poses Risks www.gao.gov/products/gao-26-107529?…
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
Wiley Economics, Business, and Finance @wileyeconbiz.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
Announcing the Economic Inquiry 2025 Best Article Award! This year’s standout, chosen by our editors: “Is economics self-correcting? Replications in the American Economic Review.” from Jörg Ankel-Peters, Nathan Fiala & Florian Neubauer. Read the open access article here: ow.ly/Getp50YAXAk
Cover of Economic Inquiry journal featuring a digital globe and text about the 2025 Best Article Award for economics research.
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
Metro @wmata.com · 31/03/2026
Spring is in the air and so are record numbers. Thursday marked the busiest day since 2020 at four stations, with NoMa-Gallaudet U setting a new all-time record! 🌸
Text on a blue background reads "new station records." Bullet points list NoMa-Gallaudet U, West Hyattsville, Silver Spring, and Bethesda. A pink cherry blossom is in the lower right corner.
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Michael Hoffman @leboncondorcet.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
Great discussion here that expertly illustrates the key trade-offs. No easy answers and many goals are in tension. But these kinds of discussions help us make more informed decisions amongst the tough trade-offs.
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Michael Hoffman @leboncondorcet.bsky.social · 23/03/2026
A bit of both! 😂 I will make a note next time I am in the neighborhood.
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Michael Hoffman @leboncondorcet.bsky.social · 23/03/2026
A shame such a nice spot is paywalled behind airport security!
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 22/03/2026
Senior BIS economist Hyun Song Shin has been named by South Korea’s president to run the Bank of Korea www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
SKorea’s Lee Nominates BIS Official Shin as New BOK Governor
South Korea nominated Shin Hyun Song as the nation’s next central bank governor, charging the senior Bank for International Settlements official with steering monetary policy at a time of growing unce...
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
The reason the Dollar isn't stronger is because markets price a much more hawkish policy shift by central banks in the G10 compared to the Fed. That's moving rate differentials against the Dollar and tempering what otherwise would be an even bigger rise... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-this-...
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
RAND @rand.org · 20/03/2026
This new report examines economic shocks in the United States, providing insights that can help anticipate recessions and develop appropriate policy responses.
bit.ly
Understanding the Impacts of Economic Shocks in the United States
The ability to anticipate recessions and develop appropriate policy responses requires a strong understanding of economic shocks and their macroeconomic impacts. A new typology of 20 types of such sho...
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
U.S. Government Accountability Office @gao.gov · 18/03/2026
WatchBlog post: What Are The Lowest-Performing Schools Doing to Improve? www.gao.gov/blog/what-are-lowest-pe…
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
Michael Hoffman @leboncondorcet.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
I have a Substack up that encourages us to look past the illusion of scarcity to see the remarkable ability of the economy to create jobs, universities, housing and more. See how long run data and empirical research make the case for adaptation and innovation as the solution to scarcity. #Econsky
macroeconomicdiscipline.substack.com
Zero Sum (Fixed Pie) Fallacies About the Economy
Taking the long view to reap the benefits of economic adaptation
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
U.S. Government Accountability Office @gao.gov · 10/03/2026
WatchBlog post: Why Fewer Insurers in Dental and Vision Markets Could Matter to You www.gao.gov/blog/why-fewer-insurers…
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
U.S. Government Accountability Office @gao.gov · 10/03/2026
Depending on where you live in the U.S., a small number of companies may control large portions of the dental and vision insurance markets. Today’s WatchBlog post looks at what this market concentration could mean for you: ow.ly/ZVK750YoQqI
Image of a dentist looking in a patient’s mouth using a dental mirror. The dentist wears scrubs, gloves, and a mask.
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Michael Hoffman @leboncondorcet.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
I have a Substack up that encourages us to look past the illusion of scarcity to see the remarkable ability of the economy to create jobs, universities, housing and more. See how long run data and empirical research make the case for adaptation and innovation as the solution to scarcity. #Econsky
macroeconomicdiscipline.substack.com
Zero Sum (Fixed Pie) Fallacies About the Economy
Taking the long view to reap the benefits of economic adaptation
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Michael Hoffman @leboncondorcet.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
Very thoughtful overview of what is becoming a nuanced literature cataloging disparate effects.
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
Scott Lincicome @scottlincicome.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
"Happy Birthday, Wealth of Nations" www.econlib.org/econlog/happ...
econlib.org
Happy Birthday, Wealth of Nations - Econlib
Today marks the 250th anniversary of the publication of Adam Smith‘s An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations on March 9, 1776. Wealth of Nations remains a remarkable book, not…
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Michael Hoffman @leboncondorcet.bsky.social · 26/02/2026
Love this concept and hoping for robust participation by federal economists.
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
Alexander Kustov @akoustov.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
🚨 Please share widely! 🚨 I'm hiring a postdoc (from Aug 1) to help build a new research program on politically sustainable immigration policies at Notre Dame. Looking for a social scientist with strong quant skills, familiarity with new computational tools, and interest in public-facing research.
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Michael Hoffman @leboncondorcet.bsky.social · 26/02/2026
Michigan wins!
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Michael Hoffman @leboncondorcet.bsky.social · 26/02/2026
Wolverines in Columbus tonight is absolutely epic. If you are not watching this game you are missing out. Tied in OT with 8.5 seconds left.
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
David Wessel @davidmwessel.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
Chris Hughes & Josh Younger criticize the Fed’s ample reserves framework, see IORB as a subsidy to the banks. Don Kohn and Bill English disagree. via @brookings.edu Hutchins Center www.brookings.edu/articles/the...
brookings.edu
The Fed's ample reserves framework: A report and a response | Brookings
A proposal, and response, about the Fed's ample reserves framework.
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
Society of Government Economists @sgeecon.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
Looking for a way to get more involved with the Society of Government Economists? Nominations for the board of directors are being accepted through March 3rd. It’s a great group! www.sge-econ.org/about/electi...
sge-econ.org
Nominations for 2026 SGE Board of Directors – The Society of Government Economists
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Reposted by Michael Hoffman
Michael Hoffman @leboncondorcet.bsky.social · 19/02/2026
The economics journal and working paper Starter Pack has expanded considerably! Many thanks to those who have shared or provided suggestions, especially @sorentsvendsen.bsky.social and @o.simardcasanova.net with many good suggestions.
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Michael Hoffman @leboncondorcet.bsky.social · 19/02/2026
The economics journal and working paper Starter Pack has expanded considerably! Many thanks to those who have shared or provided suggestions, especially @sorentsvendsen.bsky.social and @o.simardcasanova.net with many good suggestions.
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