iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Lance Brozdowski @lancebroz.bsky.social · 05/05/2026

So essentially, if we don’t believe Warren and the others actually have plus to plus-plus command, then the model is picking up on something else. What that is … I’m unsure. Is it rubber position creating optimal hrz approach angles or something?

100

Lance Brozdowski @lancebroz.bsky.social · 05/05/2026

“Hack” is probably a bit misleading but I had to make the title of that post catchy haha I’m actually not sure how they’re doing it. Location+ is basically a black box as I understand it. It’s basically a stuff model with pitch location added back in (as I understand it).

200

Reposted by Lance Brozdowski

Joe Doyle @joedoylemilb.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

💎The Chicago White Sox Draft Team Preview show is here💎 James Fox of Future Sox joins the show. 💎Avenues at 1 💎Players to know at 41 + 77 💎What history tells us? 💎A long Roch convo 💎Biggest draft in team history? ALSO: @lancebroz.bsky.social joins the show to discuss college arm arsenals.

patreon.com

Ep. 218: White Sox Draft Preview + Lance Brozdowski | Over-Slot : The MLB Draft Podcast

Ep. 218: White Sox Draft Preview + Lance Brozdowski by Over-Slot : The MLB Draft Podcast on Patreon. Join Over-Slot : The MLB Draft Podcast's community for exclusive content and updates.

041

Lance Brozdowski @lancebroz.bsky.social · 23/04/2026

Driveline posted a study about weighted balls. I think it’s more about *how* they’re used rather than the tool itself having a direct correlation. When used correctly, I’d argue they’re super important for strength / prevention

010

Reposted by Lance Brozdowski

Lucas @dbitlefty.bsky.social · 27/03/2026

Seasonal data for all fastballs, sinkers, and cutters that averaged at least 93mph, going back to 2020 (lefties are included, with h-break mirrored to keep the chart clear). Cam Schlittler’s new cutter stands out, averaging just under 95mph with 6 inches of cut and 9.5 inches of ride.

Pitch plot showing seasonal averages of 93mph+ fastballs, sinkers, and cutters since 2020, with Cam Schlittler's unique cutter movement highlighted

3104

Lance Brozdowski @lancebroz.bsky.social · 27/03/2026

Really like this viz, well done

100

Reposted by Lance Brozdowski

Lucas @dbitlefty.bsky.social · 27/03/2026

I've talked about Cam Schlittler's cutter shape a couple of times on here dating back to last season, and I started thinking about it even more after @lancebroz.bsky.social brought up its uncommon cut/ride/velo combo on a recent video. Threading a chart here momentarily.

141

Reposted by Lance Brozdowski

Stephen Sutton-Brown @srbrown70.bsky.social · 25/02/2026

Cool video from @lancebroz.bsky.social on using AI tools to create baseball apps youtu.be/rTBJjHosIgg?...

youtu.be

Does AI Make Me A Better Baseball Analyst?

YouTube video by Lance Brozdowski

011

Reposted by Lance Brozdowski

Justin L @jlbaseball.bsky.social · 12/02/2026

Today's Locked On #Guardians Thanks to @lancebroz.bsky.social for joining us to drop some great knowledge ⚾️Can the Guardians repeat September rotation magic? ⚾️What makes Khal Stephen and Parker Messick good prospects ⚾️Metrics, data and trends that matter youtu.be/iHkyokhAE20

youtu.be

REVEALED: Why Cleveland Guardians Pitching Need the RIGHT MIX To Compete | Lance Brozdowski

YouTube video by Locked On Guardians

033

Reposted by Lance Brozdowski

Zach Crizer @zcrizer.bsky.social · 19/02/2026

Also, if you're interested in the game-calling from the dugout, would be remiss if I didn't mention the excellent work of @lancebroz.bsky.social and @andrewbaggarly.bsky.social -- linked in the piece and below. www.youtube.com/watch?v=EMYS... www.nytimes.com/athletic/704...

youtube.com

This INSANE Strategy Will Take Over MLB

YouTube video by Lance Brozdowski

011

Reposted by Lance Brozdowski

Céspedes Family BBQ @cespedesbbq.bsky.social · 09/01/2026

NEW POD Jack Harris makes his Bar-B-Cast debut as guest co-host! - where the Dodgers fit in the current top free agent hitter stand-off - Tarik Skubal vs. DET in arb = #ScoBoScoBo update - Good/Bad/Uggla plus: @lancebroz.bsky.social on Edward Cabrera, Owen Caissie, and COL's pitching future 👀

171

Reposted by Lance Brozdowski

Jason Collette @jasoncollette.bsky.social · 30/10/2025

reminded me of the point @lancebroz.bsky.social raised in a recent video about high breaking balls youtu.be/0f_Za_aFujA?...

youtu.be

High Breaking Balls Are The Future?!

YouTube video by Lance Brozdowski

031

Lance Brozdowski @lancebroz.bsky.social · 20/10/2025

Dove deep into the advanced data on some NPB stars that could impact MLB in 2026! ⚾️ Munetaka Murakami - Huge pop + scary contact ⚾️ Tatsuya Imai - "wrong way" slider & flat-approach 4S ⚾️ Hiroto Saiki - 55° arm angle ... no whiffs?! Tease below, full vid: youtu.be/MAWQqe3YBFE

0140

Reposted by Lance Brozdowski

Michael Ernst @mjernst.bsky.social · 25/09/2025

This is going to continue expanding in MLB in the coming years. And with ABS coming too, the valuation of catchers in MLB is going to change drastically. With decreased need for pitch framing/calling inevitable in the future what skills will teams begin to emphasize from the position? More Offense?

211

Lance Brozdowski @lancebroz.bsky.social · 25/09/2025

The Marlins are calling pitches from the dugout. Let's discuss what usage models are, how they serve as a guide, and why more teams in the league will adopt this strategy in the future... unless catchers have something to say about it. 👀 Full video: www.youtube.com/watch?v=EMYS...

youtube.com

This INSANE Strategy Will Take Over MLB

YouTube video by Lance Brozdowski

182

Reposted by Lance Brozdowski

Lance Brozdowski @lancebroz.bsky.social · 02/09/2025

UPDATED top 40 pitching prospects just dropped! Correct classifications on every shape, Stuff+ and shape data, MiLB expected run values (xRV), arm angle guesstimates, 25k+ words of analysis. Won't find most of that anywhere else. 🫡 Tease below, $ subs only: lancebroz.substack.com/p/mlb-top-pi...

1101

Lance Brozdowski @lancebroz.bsky.social · 02/09/2025

Probably a pass for me. 4S shape isn't great and results aren't good against AAA righties. It's a high release, spin feel looks decent. SL, CH, SWP all probably suffice but feels a bit limited by the fastball shapes and velocity

110

Lance Brozdowski @lancebroz.bsky.social · 02/09/2025

1101

Lance Brozdowski @lancebroz.bsky.social · 30/08/2025

Passive teams are the most interesting to me. That lines up with most pro-data, swinging isn’t incredibly productive (as dumb as that sounds). Might be interesting to look at multi-year samples? Could help you ID bias in player acq modeling for orgs. Would bet most good offenses are low swing. 🤔

110

Lance Brozdowski @lancebroz.bsky.social · 30/08/2025

Interesting, yeah. I think a lot of the time I look at MiLB org stuff because it’s bigger sample. Could run into some small sample stuff with MLB only. But! There are probably some inklings of fun stuff here.

100

Lance Brozdowski @lancebroz.bsky.social · 28/08/2025

It's the year of the pitch mix! Will the rate of repertoire expansion ever slow down? Who is adding pitches the quickest? Which team is *dominating* mix in the minors? Let's explore 2025's biggest trend. 👀 Tease below, full video: youtu.be/Bj6D-bdKHVc

150

Lance Brozdowski @lancebroz.bsky.social · 28/08/2025

😂😂😂 this feels like a job for @pitchingninja.com I’m sure he’s cookin up nicknames as we speak.

000

Reposted by Lance Brozdowski

Barton L Smith @themagnuspi.bsky.social · 25/08/2025

I went this year to meet people I've known online for forever but had never been in the same room with. @lancebroz.bsky.social, Dan Blewitt, @harrypav.bsky.social , @michaelrosen.bsky.social, @nickwan.bsky.social. But it's a great event. Thanks, @brooksbaseball.net and crew.

082

Lance Brozdowski @lancebroz.bsky.social · 22/08/2025

Dove into a trio of pitching prospects in search of MLB's next ace... Jonah Tong, Payton Tolle & Trey Yesavage Each has incredibly distinct mechanics with near-outlier elements to their game. But who is the clear #1? 👀 Tease below, full video: www.youtube.com/watch?v=cp2p...

170

Lance Brozdowski @lancebroz.bsky.social · 14/08/2025

I’ll look into this and circle back when I get a sec. It was my read that he ditched the sweeper at higher levels of the minors and was just ripping lifted SL thing. Have to refresh my brain on his plots

110

Lance Brozdowski @lancebroz.bsky.social · 13/08/2025

Who has the best bullpen in MLB? Inspired by a recent @enosarris.bsky.social piece, I dug into 4 units, searching for funky arms and considering what stats we want to value in leverage relief situations. Tease below, full video: youtu.be/rUqHnjxpU6I

0102

Reposted by Lance Brozdowski

Céspedes Family BBQ @cespedesbbq.bsky.social · 11/08/2025

just recorded today’s pod with special guest host @lancebroz.bsky.social filling in for Jake on vacation long overdue collab with one of the best in the business, really fun recap of all the action from the weekend in your feeds 🔜

091

Reposted by Lance Brozdowski

Céspedes Family BBQ @cespedesbbq.bsky.social · 11/08/2025

NEW POD @lancebroz.bsky.social joins as special guest host! - MIL keep on winning; Woodruff, Contreras, Isaac Collins (!) star in sweep of NYM - PHI builds big NL East lead - can SEA win AL West? - NYY still down bad - Dylan Cease's evolution evokes league-wide trend - and SO much more!

151

Lance Brozdowski @lancebroz.bsky.social · 06/08/2025

Zebby, Wentz: lancebroz.substack.com/p/twins-zebb... McGonigle, Walcott ($): lancebroz.substack.com/p/milb-hitti... Mejia, Tolle ($): lancebroz.substack.com/p/orioles-es...

030

Lance Brozdowski @lancebroz.bsky.social · 06/08/2025

Recent stuff to hit my Substack... ⚾️ Zebby Matthews debuted a sinker last night & the Braves fixed Joey Wentz? ⚾️ ($) Kevin McGonigle's batted-ball data (amazing), Sebastian Walcott's data (not amazing?) ⚾️ ($) Esteban Mejia's FCL shape data (Sasaki comp?) Links in thread! 👀

1122

Lance Brozdowski @lancebroz.bsky.social · 06/08/2025

Yep, he's thrown 11 this season, easy to see that increasing in usage. I'd go full mix approach and give him sinker (for RHH) and curveball (for LHH). He also had a cutter back in 2023 that he's turfed since

010

Lance Brozdowski @lancebroz.bsky.social · 06/08/2025

I believe somebody has an article on this somewhere, can't seem to find it (think it related to Clay Holmes). I remember the number being about 2-2.5 mph drop. Still going to be above-average stuff. Probably 123 down to like 110? Bigger issue is with his health track record and location scores.

110

Reposted by Lance Brozdowski

Harry Pavlidis @harrypav.bsky.social · 05/08/2025

Fried's cutter development is really fascinating, we've been tracking it for a long while. This year he really made it a distinct offering, Lance does a great job breaking down how he (ahem) seams to be doing it. Many more goodies within the video, too.

082

Lance Brozdowski @lancebroz.bsky.social · 05/08/2025

Just dropped one of my favorite videos in a long time... on CUTTERS. A bunch of goodies within... Mariano Rivera's cutter shape metrics 👀, the "zero line bias", Red Sox + Brewers crushing SP development, Max Fried's seam-shift CT, & more! Tease below, full video: youtu.be/AjwQimplMpU

0104

Lance Brozdowski @lancebroz.bsky.social · 05/08/2025

Man, interesting one. I don't think I like the shape at all, but the results are hard to refute there. It has 2S movement? Extreme efficiency tail to it. Little more concerned with location to LHH than RHH. Even with really good stuff models, inevitably going to miss some dudes!

110

Lance Brozdowski @lancebroz.bsky.social · 01/08/2025

Trade deadline was a blast! I went through the surplus value going each way in a bunch of trades. -Why everything feels like an overpay -Difficulty reconciling reliever value on paper vs reality -Lot of good non-40-man pitching changed hands Tease below, full vid: youtu.be/XbQuppGmuqI

061

Lance Brozdowski @lancebroz.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

Serwinowski's mechanics are wacky. He's 6'5", ~7' extension, 5.8' release. 4S-SL-CH. 4S is 94 mph, 16.5" VB, 6" arm-side. 82-mph slider has 7" sweep, short sweeper. CH is mid. Average swing miss on everything vs righties, below average on strikes. Velo play for Dodgers? 🤔

031

Lance Brozdowski @lancebroz.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

My thoughts on the arms going back to Arizona alongside Locklear for Suarez are below. Both reliever outlooks. Cranton's fastball is electric. This return feels light for one of the best rental bats available ... don't think I'm the only one that believes that...

042

Lance Brozdowski @lancebroz.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

Stephen is a great get for the #Guardians. Big carry 4S, high slot, ++ zone feel. 72% strike rate, average swg strk, great underlying contact quality allowed (<.300 xwOBAcon). 93 mph, 20" VB, 9" arm-side, 6.6' ext, 6.2' release More data of his in the screenshot below!

030

Lance Brozdowski @lancebroz.bsky.social · 31/07/2025

Nett is already throwing 6 pitches: 4S, SK, CH, CT/SL, SWP, CU. Mix guy with below-avg strike/zone rates. Even splits, strong LHH mix. 4S averages 96 mph, 15" VB, 5" arm-side, 5.8' rel. Enough velo to bypass meh shape. CT/SL is best pitch. 90 mph, 5" VB, 3" glove-side (below).

051

Lance Brozdowski @lancebroz.bsky.social · 28/07/2025

Ranked the top 10 most interesting pitchers rest of season. 👀 Deadline implications, why is Quinn Priester good, examining the lower-slot version of George Kirby, and much more. Tease below, full vid: youtu.be/DudQJ_vEKu8

042

Lance Brozdowski @lancebroz.bsky.social · 17/07/2025

Did a deep dive on trade valuation and how small projection differences can swing deals. 👀 What's the package for the #Cubs to get Sandy Alcantara? Or the #Yankees to get Eugenio Suarez & Zac Gallen? Tease below, full vid: youtu.be/3gza-PODHOA

130

Lance Brozdowski @lancebroz.bsky.social · 09/07/2025

Jacob Misiorowski has 98th percentile 4S velocity & 99th percentile 4S extension. 🤯 How much does extension independently matter? Or is it inseparable from height and early-chain movement patterns? Just dropped a new video covering it! Tease below, full vid: youtu.be/rXxxkg6mjGY

050

Lance Brozdowski @lancebroz.bsky.social · 05/07/2025

Yeah! They flipped him to a kick-changeup back in May I believe, wrote about it here and have a visual of it as well: lancebroz.substack.com/p/yankees-pi...

lancebroz.substack.com

A Trio of Changeup Notes: Yarbrough, Taillon, Morton

Ryan Yarbrough, Jameson Taillon, Charlie Morton

120

Lance Brozdowski @lancebroz.bsky.social · 05/07/2025

Missed this, sorry! Well since you asked, here’s his college data (pic). I think I’d draft and try to stretch him out (because of the 2 fastballs). There’s gotta be a better CH in there too, which should help some of the LHH issues he had.

141

Reposted by Lance Brozdowski

Stephen Sutton-Brown @srbrown70.bsky.social · 24/06/2025

This topic is catnip to me, & Lance covered it really well. Some companion pieces from me: On how Arsenal Metrics interact w/ TTO: www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article... On question of fatigue vs pitch-level familiarity & pitcher-level familiarity: www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article...

2103