iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

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Ben McAdams (The Resurrection Arc) @purrtah.bsky.social · 5h

fwiw Hyde-Smith is going up with negative ads this week

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James Downie @jamescdownie.bsky.social · 5h

In 2016, by contrast, Trump spent the final two weeks in states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and even Colorado — because his campaign's polls (even more than public polls) showed the race tightening in those places post-Comey. There have been few moves like that from Trump or the GOP this fall.

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David Naylor @profcedar.bsky.social · 5h

Do the thing y'all. I have been yelling at assorted people in my life to check theirs for weeks now.

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Mikhail Gorbaechev @mikhailgorbaechev.bsky.social · 18h

It's true that there's not much structural antisemitism in North America anymore but you know I'm not sure if it matters that the guys coming through the synagogue door with an assault rifle are in line with a structural system of oppression.

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rev. hochul arson @khartsun.bsky.social · 17h

I think that there are some D internals which are going to be pretty good (PPP, DCCC, DFP, Impact) and other which are shitpolls but blue (GSG, Blueprint)

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1st Minnesota Volunteers Stan Account @himdogson.bsky.social · 18h

the last time i had sex lindsay graham died and this time talarico and turek had good polls drop so i need to keep having sex for the good of america

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Clean Observer @hammbear2024.bsky.social · 21h

Three billionaires are paying for his opponent’s entire campaign. We have each other. Help out.

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rev. hochul arson @khartsun.bsky.social · 21h

so Fox just has reddening LV screens... everywhere? what? This makes me less concerned about that MI-SEN poll and more concerned about Fox News' methodology. Are they finding several points of Harris fakes and then trying to "correct" the electorate down to slightly bluer than a "2024 recall"?

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ashley (birthday month) 🌹 @clearlyashley.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

ah, my second country. God help you

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Schnorkles O'Bork @schnorkles.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

You basically have two very possible and weighting issues going on that both have merit which is lv screens are overstating dems and recall is overstating Rs and there's also other weighting calls you could yell about. Which is all to say people just take the one they want to make the take wanted

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ashley (birthday month) 🌹 @clearlyashley.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

my stomach just dropped

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rev. howard arson @theophite.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

no, they need to worry about idaho. because the candidate is not a democrat and is not running as a democrat.

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rev. howard arson @theophite.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

the candidate is running on: (a) there are no obstetricians in Idaho; (b) all of the rural hospitals are closing; (c) these people are all stealing your money, including trump

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rev. howard arson @theophite.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

there is a lot of airy talk by mathematicians about how their work is like contact with the divine, and less about the seduction of that feeling when those abstractions are doing something with real consequences. i think you can't reduce Oppenheimer Disease to greed.

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rev. hochul arson @khartsun.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Here's mine

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mallow's hyperrealistic blood @bajablastenjoyer.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

not great that we're at "Mamdani is a Jew-puppet for doing hatecrime protections" imo

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Vituperative Erb @vituperativeerb.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

It remains odd to me The Onion has decided the thing to do in 2026 is mislead people about Democrats The DNC and prominent Democrats like El-Sayed! This isn’t even a joke, it’s a poorly controlled reflex

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Aubrey Gilleran @aubreygilleran.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Literally no one can cook a poll that looks good for Whatley. It's so funny.

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rev. hochul arson @khartsun.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Ben McAdams is overperforming McMullin by 10.5 and Harris by 18.5 Crosby is overperforming McMullin by 11 and Harris by 24 Udell is overperforming McMullin by 14 and Harris by 23 Larsen is overperforming McMullin by 12 and Harris by 24 Blutah is here!

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World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Bruh, that Oregon political simulator game is harder than saving the Weimar Republic

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John Carl Baker @johncarlbaker.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

REPORTER: Secretary Hegseth, could you weigh in on the christological controversies of late antiquity? Where does the administration stand on the monophysites? HEGSETH: No beardos.

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Calliope @calliope5431.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

The US's most morally impressive victories in the 20th century were without a shadow of a doubt Imperial Japan, Imperial Germany, and the Third Reich (with the USSR at least somewhat being an assisted suicide). For that matter, Ba'athist Iraq is also missing from the list.

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Mattie Electric Air Line @mrbtx.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Running into 4chan-ified trans women the first time nearly broke my brain

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mallow's hyperrealistic blood @bajablastenjoyer.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

what could possibly go wrong with a community culture where regular libs/socdems are aggressively exiled but being a red-browner with murder fantasies is a quirky personality you're a cringe wokescold for taking issue with

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mallow's hyperrealistic blood @bajablastenjoyer.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

at some point we're gonna have to confront the amount of trans people getting sucked in by 4chan wojak slop and i'd really like if "acting like a future news headline" was socially policed even half as hard as other, way less bad things are in our community

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FinTwitter @fintwitter.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

🔴 U.S. official: Secretary Rubio kicked out the Iranian delegation who had over stayed their welcome. The UN general assembly was over, so it was time for them to go - Axios Reporter on X

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Ben McAdams (The Resurrection Arc) @purrtah.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

According to the Utah Debate Commission poll McAdams leads 63-21 D+42 in UT01 Kamala got 60.4% to Trump’s 36.7% D+23.7

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rev. howard arson @theophite.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

i would phrase it less apocalyptically than that. what i would say is "the model emits islands of text in a vast sea of what the fuck, leaving us no way to test whether the pathways in what the fuck lead places where we would prefer it not go."

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rev. howard arson @theophite.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

"does magnesium evaporate when the water does," the most difficult question in refrigeration engineering

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rev. hochul arson @khartsun.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

can someone tell Nathan Goldwag about electorate modelling and turnout? thanks.

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rev. hochul arson @khartsun.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Every poll shows AES underperforming the environment by 3-4. This Fox poll just has a D+5 LV environment for some reason.

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rev. hochul arson @khartsun.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

AES is consistently getting around 1 point of persuasion gains and the wide variation in margins is coming from different estimates of the turnout environment. Basically, it's the Virginia LG race 2.0

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rev. hochul arson @khartsun.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

The only way Rogers has a path to victory is with a Trump-won electorate. It would be really weird if that happened. OTOH, AES pretty consistently seems to have weak persuasion effects. On a 2024 electorate, the election is a tossup

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rev. hochul arson @khartsun.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

22% of black voters going for Rogers looks like a 2025 NJ polling moment

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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Fox News poll of Michigan delivers some of the better “major pollster” news the GOP has seen in a while: El-Sayed 50%, Rogers 49%. Note Fox’s prior poll, *right* after the primary, had Rogers up 51/47. Benson leads 54/45 for gov in the same sample. www.foxnews.com/politics/fox...

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Patrick De Haan @gasbuddyguy.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

PADD map:

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rev. hochul arson @khartsun.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

really the big question mark here is why their LV screen is redder than their RV

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rev. hochul arson @khartsun.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

D+3 RV, D+1 LV How the hell does that happen lol

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rev. howard arson @theophite.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

"he says that he will never die..." [screen turns dark] "... but let's look at his record."

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Impeach & Remove @an-old-gremlin.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Yeeeeeeeeeeesh. I know sex abuse is a problem everywhere, but it seems particularly prevalent at Cornell. If I were a high school kid considering my options, I'd remove Cornell from consideration for that reason alone.

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World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Mike Rogers may end up as the federal candidate with the most negative ads spent against him in the 2020s. the Dems will have spent close to $200M running against the guy in just 2 years. And no, that does not bode well for his chances, he’s totally defined and 97% of Dems will never vote for him.

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rev. hochul arson @khartsun.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

this but for MS Flight Simulator

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Thorne 🌸 @ens0.me · 30/09/2026

copliot is suicidal (possibly a terorist, but likely just suicidal) copilot stabs pilot and starts wildly flying the plane passengers successfully "United 93" the copilot dude who watched a bunch of airplane-related content was able to save them from crashing despite not being a pilot himself

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Alex @purplechrain.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

To deploy ‘rodef’ against a Jewish politician critical of Israel in a newspaper published in Toronto, where - to my eternal shame and despair - we have had an active branch of the JDL is…extremely reckless in ways that one would need to be beyond ignorant to be unaware of.

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Mikhail Gorbaechev @mikhailgorbaechev.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

I think you basically need to bite the bullet and just do it even if people say you come off as an apologist. You know you aren't, have faith that you will demonstrate that you aren't.

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Nathaniel William Horadam @horadam.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

My gut is D+9-10 is probably a good generic ballot anchor and it's entirely unknowable whether the bottom actually falls with MAGA voters staying home en masse or non-response bias ends up narrowing the gap. But I'd expect to see a mini-comeback narrative with some GOP voters coming home in polls.

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rev. hochul arson @khartsun.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

i wonder what happens if you ask it to play outer wilds

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