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rev. hochul arson @khartsun.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

so this is probably actually stronger for Democrats than it looks?

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rev. hochul arson @khartsun.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Does GEM think polling is underestimating Republicans or Democrats?

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rev. hochul arson @khartsun.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Why are we advancing on DC from southwestern Pennsylvania and the WV panhandles of all places?

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Sharon 🪳🌹 @sharonk.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

@OSINT_Monitor: BREAKING: American Revolutionary Congress 3rd Mechanized Brigade reportedly abandons defensive positions near Frederick after command dispute over whether enemies-to-lovers constitutes "bourgeois romantic individualism." National Salvation forces advancing along I-70.

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rev. howard arson @theophite.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

you mean that no one of character is willing to cosign your beliefs? that no one competent is willing to staff your nightmare state? and now you're going to Pierre Menard Carl Schmitt's life trajectory because all you have available are shitty little thugs, without even the Holocaust to show for it?

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rev. hochul arson @khartsun.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

so there's no sign of a GOP turnout surge?

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Rude Law Dog @esghound.com · 06/10/2026

Early voting turnout in Virginia is jaw dropping stuff among Latino voters. Across all other demographics, numbers are well ahead of 2022 at the same point but Hispanic/Latino turnout is 50% higher than it was in 2024-- a presidential election year!

Race, 2022 Count (Share), 2024 Count (Share), 2026 Count (Share)
Asian or Pacific Islander, 7,293 (3.61%), 19,832 (3.43%), 15,827 (4.59%)
Black, 27,395 (13.54%), 85,589 (14.82%), 56,985 (16.53%)
Hispanic or Latino, 4,260 (2.11%), 14,508 (2.51%), 21,577 (6.26%)
Native American, 71 (0.04%), 285 (0.05%), 509 (0.15%)
Uncoded, 818 (0.4%), 1,512 (0.26%), 87 (0.03%)
White, 161,779 (79.99%), 455,802 (78.9%), 249,021 (72.22%)
Unknown, 639 (0.32%), 169 (0.03%), 820 (0.24%)
Total, 202,255, 577,697, 344,826

[This alt text added by gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview AI]

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rev. hochul arson @khartsun.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Do you think Republicans are closing the turnout gap?

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rev. hochul arson @khartsun.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Marist has a history of misses in Ohio and Iowa, but not really in other states. I think they're going to miss again in Ohio and Iowa, but their MI and TX, and ME polling this year are roughly accurate. The D, I, and R breakups look basically identical to other poll we have so far.

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Paris Marx @parismarx.com · 06/10/2026

goodbye and good riddance to christine frechette. i liked that she was serious about churchill falls, but otherwise the caq is terrible. pq sadly will bring its own slew of challenges, not least of which the constant fights to justify sovereignty and increased pressure on english speakers.

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Paris Marx @parismarx.com · 06/10/2026

only good news in quebec is that pspp doesn’t have an absolutely majority. but getting that close on 28% of the vote is insanity. first-past-the-post is not fit for purpose.

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Jonathon M. Floyd @jfloyd314.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

I think this raises an important point, which is that few people outside the political sphere even recognize the name Dennis Hastert. Really important that we don't allow the current administration's excesses to similarly be comfortably forgotten or ignored.

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rev. hochul arson @khartsun.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

okay, so basically nothing interesting happened and the Houthis are probably going to push them back out after they finish whatever they're doing on the Taiz front

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Shay Hoffman @shayhoffman.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Y’all my Highland Park born and bred, lifelong R voting FIL just sent us a newsletter written by a wealthy Dallas investor encouraging everyone who reads it to vote Dem in TX because these Rs are insane and incompetent. My FIL wrote someone in the last 3 elections. It *might* Be Happening.

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futur 🔹 @futur.blue · 06/10/2026

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rev. hochul arson @khartsun.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

the transphobe in a Safe D seat in Virginia????

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rev. hochul arson @khartsun.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Do the Houthis still control Mokha?

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Magenta @magentab.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

i'm getting reminded that nobody in canada knows how to tactically vote again

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rev. hochul arson @khartsun.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Why does everyone hate the CAQ so much

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rev. hochul arson @khartsun.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

YouGov's final poll had 16% of black voters going for Trump, which was too high (the real number was 13%) but not insanely so

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rev. hochul arson @khartsun.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

actually, it's that high-volatility pollster Big Data Poll has her underrunning the GCB by 8 points

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Sharon 🪳🌹 @sharonk.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

We need to build Kowloon Walled City density housing in every Quebec metro

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rev. hochul arson @khartsun.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

they turned out not to be nonsense in the end, though

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rev. hochul arson @khartsun.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

she's outrunning Kamala everywhere except specifically Hennepin and Ramsay in every poll

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Aubrey Gilleran @aubreygilleran.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Drazan probably couldn’t be worse than a PNW Larry Hogan but a Governor Rick Jackson could try to steal the 2028 election and undoubtedly would gerrymander the state.

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rev. hochul arson @khartsun.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

the thing is that the polls show her doing better than Harris everywhere other than specifically Hennepin and Ramsay Counties, which polls show shifting right by 15 to 30 point (do we believe that? probably not)

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rev. hochul arson @khartsun.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

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rev. hochul arson @khartsun.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Yeah, I could see an underperformance, just not enough of one to make the race actually competitive :shrug: a win is a win IMO

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rev. hochul arson @khartsun.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

He's not going to run for the Senate

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rev. hochul arson @khartsun.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

I'd prefer Jeff Jackson, too, but Wiley Nickel would be a top 15 Senator afaict

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rev. hochul arson @khartsun.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

The only governors' races he might actually blow are GA and arguably TX but he'd have an excuse for the latter

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rev. hochul arson @khartsun.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Currently, the rumor is Wiley Nickel

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rev. howard arson @theophite.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

mathematics' original sin()

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rev. hochul arson @khartsun.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

I actually thought the exact same thing

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rev. hochul arson @khartsun.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Yeah, why are they spending so much money on Kotek and ~none on KLB I would just let Kotek sink or swim herself if I were in his place

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Polling Canada @canadianpolling.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

See you in the 2027 Quebec spring election!

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rev. hochul arson @khartsun.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

it was the "coordinating with American annexationists" bit that would be treason?

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1st Minnesota Volunteers Stan Account @himdogson.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

oh youre incredibly fucking right, i can forgive them for texas bc that is still a long shot but the degree to which theyve left klb to twist in the wind is kind of unforgivable given the strategic implications

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rev. hochul arson @khartsun.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Yeah, why are they spending so much money on Kotek and ~none on KLB I would just let Kotek sink or swim herself if I were in his place

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1st Minnesota Volunteers Stan Account @himdogson.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

purrtah look what youve done you cant just vaguepost on the libs with anxiety website

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