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Kai Thaler

@kaimthaler.bsky.social
4.2K followers 2.3K following 792 posts

Global Studies prof at UC Santa Barbara, views own. Proud Mainer. Conflict, violence, statebuilding, protest, democracy & authoritarianism. COYS. kaithaler.com. Author of When Rebels Win tinyurl.com/whenrebelswin

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Kai Thaler @kaimthaler.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
My article on civil wars as critical junctures is now in a print issue of the @risjnl.bsky.social, discussing how civil wars can be transformative, but some paths aren’t taken, & illustrating utility of a critical junctures framework when analyzing civil wars’ impacts doi.org/10.1017/S026...
doi.org
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Alex Dukalskis @alexdukalskis.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
My department - @ucdpolitics.bsky.social - is hiring two PERMANENT posts in any area of politics, international relations, theory, or development studies. Please apply if you are on the academic job market, and if you're not, please do us a solid & spread the word! Deadline NOV 9.
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Kai Thaler @kaimthaler.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
New article from Annjulie Vester, Reggie Htut & me in @civilwarsjournal.bsky.social on how & why Myanmar's National Unity Government adopted a technologically sophisticated financing & financial governance strategy. Open access, part of a forthcoming special issue on finance doi.org/10.1080/1369...
doi.org
Innovating Armed Group Financing and Governance: How Myanmar’s NUG United Digital Technologies and Traditional Practices
What explains why armed groups choose particular funding strategies over other options? We analyse Myanmar’s National Unity Government (NUG), formed by deposed officials after a 2021 coup. Alongsid...
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Mayya Komisarchik @mayyakomis.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
UR polisci is hiring in methods! Link below. I’m on the search committee and happy to answer any questions. Feel free to reach out! @rochesterpolisci.bsky.social apply.interfolio.com/192333
apply.interfolio.com
Apply - Interfolio {{$ctrl.$state.data.pageTitle}} - Apply - Interfolio
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Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
The fundraising texts you delete are working on someone. It’s infuriating and heartbreaking. An 85yo in Ohio gave more than double the value of his home. A 91yo in an Indianapolis senior facility gave 25K times. The DCCC/DSCC don’t just tolerate the spammers who exploit seniors. They take part.
data4democracy.substack.com
Hook and Squeeze
How Democratic consultants, committees, and party leaders built a fundraising spam pipeline that funnels money from a captive pool of elderly donors into their own operations.
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John Aerni-Flessner @lesothojohn.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
This is an absolute travesty. Northwestern has, probably, the 2nd best library collection for African History/Studies in the USA (behind Yale and ahead of MSU, UCLA, etc). A self-inflicted wound that is absolutely, 100% unnecessary given the massive wealth of Northwestern--north of $15 billion.
thepurplewire.beehiiv.com
SCOOP: Northwestern moves to close Program of African Studies
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Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Many myths debunked in this paper. Paper finds that: -faculty partisanship has no effect on students -students ideologically sort into majors; majors don’t affect partisanship -faculty partisanship is uncorrelated with how left/rightwing course content is micah-baum.github.io/files/baum-e...
DO FACULTY AFFECT STUDENT PARTISANSHIP?*
Micah Y. Baum*
Joaquín Endara
Annaliese Paulson®
Abstract
We study whether Democratic college professors make their students more liberal. We link voter data to salary records from 33 state flagships and show that faculty skew Democratic, especially in the humanities and social sciences. We then use student transcripts from one flagship to estimate causal effects. Students become more liberal during college regardless of major and sort toward ideologically similar instructors. Exploiting plausibly random variation in when instructors teach courses, we find no effect of faculty partisanship on student partisanship. Text analysis shows exposure to liberal topics reflects student demand rather than instructor supply, leaving little room for indoctrination.
JEL Codes: 123, D72, H75
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Lookout Santa Cruz @lookoutsantacruz.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
California’s uninsured rate could nearly double by 2030, with the sharpest losses hitting Black, Asian, and Latino residents in Southern California. A new documentary reveals the human toll behind the numbers, including families navigating Medi-Cal amid immigration raids and looming benefit cuts.
lookout.co
California nearly achieved universal healthcare. Now, millions are losing coverage
California’s uninsured rate could nearly double by 2030, with the sharpest losses hitting Black, Asian, and Latino residents in Southern California. A new documentary reveals the human toll behind…
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Politico @politico.com · 04/08/2026
26-employee Texas law firm gets $150M to represent 24,000 children in immigration court
dlvr.it
26-employee Texas law firm gets $150M to represent 24,000 children in immigration court
None of the Burke Law Group’s lawyers list immigration law as an area of expertise, per the firm’s website.
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David Sterman @davidsterman.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
A key read from @attackerman.bsky.social on US strikes and their larger context in Somalia. A war that, as I note in the piece, really deserved more public attention and scrutiny. zeteo.com/p/why-is-no-...
zeteo.com
Why Is No One Talking About the ‘New War’ Trump Is Waging in Somalia?
While the administration hounds Somali immigrants at home, it’s pummeling Somalia with an ‘unprecedented’ volume of airstrikes, but you might not know it given the silence from our media and Congress.
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Quinn Slobodian @quinnslobodian.com · 22/07/2026
Child throws caution on the Santa story but sees promise in Tooth Fairy
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Kai Thaler @kaimthaler.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Nicaragua's elections have been strictly controlled by the regime for a decade now, but that's clearly not enough for Ortega and Murillo as they seek to further solidify their grip on power amid questions about whether/when Murillo might become the sole president confidencial.digital/en/english/d...
confidencial.digital
Daniel Ortega: "There Will Never Be Elections Here Again"
Daniel Ortega announces a "wall" of laws in Nicaragua "to ensure that coup plotters and traitors can never return to power"
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Kai Thaler @kaimthaler.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
Today, July 6, is the submission deadline for ISA-APSA International Security Studies Conference! We welcome paper, panel, roundtable, & author-meets-critics submissions from across security studies www.isanet.org/Conferences/...
isanet.org
ISA/APSA International Security Studies Conference, Los Angeles
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Zack Whittaker @zackwhittaker.com · 03/07/2026
From me, overnight: A politician who was part of a European Parliament committee tasked with investigating spyware abuses had his own phone hacked with Pegasus spyware. Stelios Kouloglou told me the hacking was "reckless" and likely due to his work. He plans to sue NSO, which develops Pegasus.
techcrunch.com
Politician who investigated spyware abuses had his phone hacked with Pegasus spyware | TechCrunch
A government customer of NSO Group used the company's Pegasus spyware to hack into the phone of a European politician, who at the time was serving on an EU committee tasked with investigating the spyw...
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Kai Thaler @kaimthaler.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
Reminder that submissions for the ISA-APSA International Security Conference in LA are open until July 6! More info here www.isanet.org/Conferences/...
isanet.org
ISA/APSA International Security Studies Conference, Los Angeles
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Kai Thaler @kaimthaler.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
From late 2021 to 2025, thousands of migrants from around the world traveled to Nicaragua to head north toward the US. Alena Shalaby & I argue in a new article that this was part of a state strategy to generate new revenues amid economic turmoil & sanctions academic.oup.com/migration/ar...
academic.oup.com
Transit migration entrepreneurship: Explaining Nicaragua’s state-controlled, profit-seeking transit migration industry
Abstract. How and why do governments develop profit-seeking migration industries around transit migration? Restrictive international migration policies, su
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Raúl Zepeda Gil 🌈🌹🇲🇽 @rgzepeda.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
Today @aeon.co published me an essay I wrote with the main insight of my research: The violence specialists. They are workers workers in a trade, regardless of it’s legality. They can be gangsters or soldiers. And there are aspects that makes this occupation attractive. aeon.co/essays/organ...
aeon.co
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International Security Studies @ ISA @isss-isa.bsky.social · 20/06/2026
📣 The call for proposals is out for the 2026 ISA/APSA International Security Studies Conference! Please share widely and plan to join us at the UCLA Luskin Conference Center in Los Angeles, October 3–5, 2026.
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Kai Thaler @kaimthaler.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
The call is open for 2026's ISA-APSA International Security Studies Conference in Los Angeles October 3-5 at the excellent UCLA Luskin Center conference center/hotel. Submissions open through July 6, & Bridget Coggins & I welcome proposals across security fields/topics www.isanet.org/Conferences/...
isanet.org
ISA/APSA International Security Studies Conference, Los Angeles
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Geoff Brumfiel @gbrumfiel.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
EXLCUSIVE: An analysis by two MIT researchers shows how Russia's nuclear-powered cruise missile actually works. And guys, it's not pretty. 🚀☢️🤢🧵 www.npr.org/2026/06/18/n...
npr.org
Report: Russia's nuclear-powered 'Skyfall' missile is dirty and dangerous
MIT researchers think they've worked out exactly how Russia's Burevestnik nuclear-powered missile flies. "It's almost certainly a terrible idea," one analyst said. "But it's not an impossible idea."
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Michael Kruse @michaelkruse.bsky.social · 14/06/2026
Gotta read this. So good.
nytimes.com
Knicks Give Their City Something New: Impossible Joy
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Kai Thaler @kaimthaler.bsky.social · 13/06/2026
The US recently expanded sanctions on Nicaraguan officials, but I argue in the Georgetown Journal of International Affairs that a major US pressure campaign like in Venezuela & Cuba remains unlikely, w/Nicaragua a lower political & economic priority gjia.georgetown.edu/conflict-sec...
gjia.georgetown.edu
Next in Line, or Dodging the Bullet? Regime Survival in Nicaragua amid US Pressure - Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Is Nicaragua Next? After the seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January 2026 and with the United States under the Trump administration blockading Cuba and demanding new leadership and e...
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Joseph Cox @josephcox.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
This is an outrageous story. A farmer donated 87 acres to a small Texas city on the condition it be used as a public park. Years later, the farmer has passed away, the city sold the land to a developer, and now it will be the site of a 135,000 square foot data center www.404media.co/a-farmer-don...
404media.co
A Farmer Donated Land to Turn into a Park. The City Is Building a Massive Data Center Instead
In 1999, a farmer gave away 87 acres of land to a small Texas town to use as a park. The town sold to a data center developer for $10 million.
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Kai Thaler @kaimthaler.bsky.social · 31/05/2026
Just days after Nicaragua's dictatorial regime finally gave 'proof of life' for a hospitalized, emaciated Brooklyn Rivera, imprisoned since 2023, he's become the latest political prisoner to die in custody confidencial.digital/nacion/dicta...
confidencial.digital
Dictadura tarda 15 horas en confirmar muerte de Brooklyn Rivera
El líder miskitu y presidente nacional del partido indígena Yatama, Brooklyn Rivera Bryan, falleció el 30 de mayo de 2026 a las 8:30 de la noche, a los 73 años, tras más de 970 días de encierro ilegal
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Kai Thaler @kaimthaler.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
Nicaragua's dictatorship was constantly asked since 2023 to provide proof of life for Miskito leader & politician Brooklyn Rivera. They finally did, but he appears to be dying, continuing a pattern of political prisoners' health rapidly deteriorating in custody confidencial.digital/en/english/p...
confidencial.digital
Political Prisoner Brooklyn Rivera: Emaciated and Confined to a Hospital Bed
The Indigenous Miskito leader, Brooklyn Rivera, was arbitrarily detained on September 29, 2023, and the dictatorship had refused to provide any information about his whereabouts
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Dave Weigel @daveweigel.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
Basic story: 1) Rs drew a +10 Trump seat in South Texas. 2) In the high-turnout primary, a plurality of Dems voted for Galindo, a crank who only raised $10k; Johnny Garcia, who raised $330k, got 2nd runoff spot. 3) Rs saw chance to lock up runoff for Galindo w a now $1 million PAC buy
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Kai Thaler @kaimthaler.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
I wrote an entire 34 page law review article about why the US should limit support for armed groups, and @theonion.com just made the case more clearly in a couple hundred words theonion.com/cia-under-fi...
theonion.com
CIA Under Fire For Arming Group Of Rowdy 7-Year-Olds
LANGLEY, VA—In the wake of an operation condemned by critics as a reckless provocation that fails to heed the lessons of history, the Central Intelligence Agency came under fire Friday for arming a gr...
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Kai Thaler @kaimthaler.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
Illuminating, depressing, and excellent essay on the exploitative, manipulative world of data annotation gig work for AI training
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Matt Seybold @mattseybold.bsky.social · 10/05/2026
Retractions never get proportional attention. This one should.
arstechnica.com
Influential study touting ChatGPT in education retracted over red flags
The retracted study on ChatGPT in education was already cited hundreds of times.
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
We haven’t even begun to understand the Pandora’s Box that this war has opened. @cfr.org www.cfr.org/articles/aft...
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Kai Thaler @kaimthaler.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
Very proud of my friend @donforohio.bsky.social for winning the Democratic primary for Ohio's 15th Congressional District! He'll be continuing to fight to make Congress do its job to protect the rights & interests of people in Ohio, the US, & abroad apnews.com/projects/ele...
apnews.com
2026 Ohio U.S. House Primary Election Live Results
Live results for the May 5, 2026 Ohio U.S. House primary. Track election results with real-time vote counts, county-level maps and race calls from AP.
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Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 04/05/2026
The United States government has just quietly terminated its program to support international students whose home countries are in crisis such as war. This program rightly had bipartisan support. It was a humane way to protect the best & brightest kids who are investing their future in America.
presidentsalliance.org
U.S. Phases Out Needed Special Student Relief (SSR) that Protects International Students from Crisis Countries - Presidents' Alliance
U.S. Phases Out Needed Special Student Relief (SSR) that Protects International Students from Crisis Countries  The Trump administration has effectively eliminated a policy intended to support interna...
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David @daverino.bsky.social · 26/04/2026
“The decision to close the program..is a story of administrators trying to navigate Trump administration & its crackdown on immigrants. During the past 3 decades, the program has treated more than 10,000 patients who arrived in the US after having fled persecution” www.nytimes.com/2026/04/25/n...
nytimes.com
They Survived Torture. Why Is the Program That Helped Them Closing?
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Austin Carson @carsonaust.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
New article: Harrison Ford’s Indiana Jones meets James Scott’s legibility It’s actually about how states tapped archaeologists for early intelligence capabilities Check it out! “History, archeology, and espionage as improvised legibility” in @ejir.bsky.social coauthored with @asaxton.bsky.social
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Scott Nover @scottnover.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
BREAKING: The Pentagon has fired the Stars and Stripes ombudsman — the role Congress created to protect the military paper's editorial independence — after she publicly criticized the DOD's overhaul of the publication. w/ @liamjscott.bsky.social www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
washingtonpost.com
Pentagon fires ombudsman overseeing military newspaper after calling it ‘woke’
Stars and Stripes ombudsman Jacqueline Smith said the Defense Department dismissed her without giving a reason, according to an email reviewed by The Post.
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Kai Thaler @kaimthaler.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
confidencial.digital/nacion/ama-y...
confidencial.digital
Ama y No Olvida: El museo que rescata la verdad frente a la impunidad en Nicaragua
Familiares de las víctimas preservan la memoria de abril de 2018, un pilar fundamental para la lucha por justicia en Nicaragua
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David Burbach 🇺🇸 @dburbach.bsky.social · 19/04/2026
Importantly, Sapphire was done with knowledge and cooperation of the host government (Kazakhstan). It took a month. It was not done under fire in enemy territory
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Rima I Anabtawi @rimaanabtawi.bsky.social · 18/04/2026
Eyewitnesses recount three deadly Israeli strikes on medics in southern Lebanon “The attack on the 3rd team of ambulances to make a rescue attempt Wednesday happened as they were still assessing the first 2 crews’ injuries, less than 6 minutes after their arrival.” apnews.com/article/leba...
apnews.com
Eyewitnesses recount three deadly Israeli strikes on medics in southern Lebanon
Israeli strikes targeted three different medical teams in the span of mere minutes in southern Lebanon, killing four medics and wounding six.
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Colson Whitehead @colsonwhitehead.com · 15/04/2026
“Everybody’s using AI for everything nowadays, and if you don’t, you’re a misfit outsider who should be stoned to death in the town square, and then resurrected virtually from your data so you can be stoned to death in the virtual town square, for infinity.” www.nytimes.com/2026/04/15/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | Just Because I Wrote This Doesn’t Mean I’ll Be On Your Panel About A.I.
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Kai Thaler @kaimthaler.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
New article! @risabrooks12.bsky.social & I have a piece forthcoming in Security Studies presenting a typology of military responses when politicians erode democracy, ranging from partnering to blocking those efforts, + offering hypotheses & directions for future work kaithaler.com/wp-content/u...
kaithaler.com
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Kai Thaler @kaimthaler.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
New article! @risabrooks12.bsky.social & I have a piece forthcoming in Security Studies presenting a typology of military responses when politicians erode democracy, ranging from partnering to blocking those efforts, + offering hypotheses & directions for future work kaithaler.com/wp-content/u...
kaithaler.com
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The Associated Press @apnews.com · 12/04/2026
BREAKING: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán concedes defeat to Peter Magyar after "painful" election result, ending 16 years in power.
bit.ly
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán concedes defeat after 'painful' election result
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has conceded defeat after what he called a ″painful″ election result, ending 16 years in power for a powerful figure in the far-right movement allied with U.S.
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Dannagal Goldthwaite Young @dannagal.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
Amazing work by voters of Hungary today. Ending democratic backsliding requires a public that chooses to embrace democratic norms and reject autocracy - and the Hungarian people did just that. Since my recent work explores authoritarianism, thought I'd share some observations from the literature:
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Sarah Parkinson @separkinson.bsky.social · 11/04/2026
I understand why people are using the the term "Gazafication of Lebanon," but there is a long history to Israel's current tactics that long predates 2023. It used to be the "Dahiyeh Doctrine," a term that references the 2006 July War. That said, Israel's 1982 Lebanon invasion is a key precedent 1/4
foreignaffairs.com
The Ghosts of Lebanon
To see what lies ahead in Gaza, look back to Israel’s 1982 invasion.
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Brad Heath @bradheath.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
Russia will see revenue from its biggest ‌single oil tax double to $9 billion in April due to the oil and gas crisis triggered by the U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran, Reuters calculations showed, the first concrete evidence of a windfall for Russia. www.reuters.com/business/ene...
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George Pearkes @peark.es · 08/04/2026
Statement from Aragachi on Twitter. Last sentence is key IMO.
TEHRAN-7 APRIL 2026
On behalf of the Islamic Republic of Iran, I express gratitude and appreciation for my dear brothers HE Prime Minister of Pakistan Sharif and HE Field Marshal Munir for their tireless efforts to end the war in the region.
In response to the brotherly request of PM Sharif in his tweet, and considering the request by the U.S. for negotiations based on its 15-point proposal as well as announcement by POTUS about acceptance of the general framework of Iran's 10-point proposal as a basis for negotiations, I hereby declare on behalf of Iran's Supreme National Security Council:
If attacks against Iran are halted, our Powerful Armed Forces will cease their defensive operations.
For a period of two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran's Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations.
Seyed Abbas Araghchi
Minister of Foreign Affairs Islamic Republic of Iran
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Greg Sargent @gregsargent.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
If Trump bombs power plants in Iran, the humanitarian crisis will be horrific. Experts tell me to expect water shortages, closed hospitals, many deaths. “We’ve never had a US president so proudly promise to commit war crimes," Sen Chris Murphy says. 1/ (new piece) newrepublic.com/article/2087...
newrepublic.com
Trump Threatens to Kill Thousands More Iranians in Unnerving Tirades
In a blunt warning, Senator Chris Murphy tells us that “everybody in that chain of command has to think hard” about carrying out such a hideously inhumane order, which he described as “war crimes.”
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