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Reposted by Charlie Robertson

AFP News Agency @en.afp.com · 23/09/2026

🇪🇹 Tigrayan rebels in northern Ethiopia seized control of airports and battled federal troops in the neighbouring Afar region, multiple sources told AFP on Wednesday, as long-standing tensions spilled into open conflict ➡️ u.afp.com/S93d

Members of the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) walk along a main road in Mekelle, northern Ethiopia, on September 23, 2026, as tensions intensify after Tigrayan rebels seized control of airports in the region

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

For 50 years, new US Federal Reserve governors have all started with rate hikes. Feels like a mix of 1) coincidence, 2) establishing credibility and 3) successful governors don't get replaced? (This idea stolen from a pre-Warsh hike post I can't find, so apologies to someone)

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Reposted by Charlie Robertson

John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch.ft.com · 08/09/2026

2) England is a rare exception. During the 2010s many other countries (including the other 3 UK nations) changed tack, experimenting with ideas like transferrable skills instead of focusing on tried-and-tested disciplines and methods. It looks like those experiments have failed.

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Reposted by Charlie Robertson

Daniel Moser @dmoser.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

Pollution levels in London after 10 years of advancing sustainable transport.

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

Fitch revised the outlook from stable to positive for Tanzania, on the B+ rating. Tanzania has the best sovereign ratings in east Africa. It's been helped by higher average gold prices, now the single biggest $ source for the country www.fitchratings.com/research/sov...

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

How do I repost these without going via x.com x.com/crazy_kennar...

x.com

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 09/08/2026

Tanzania is opening up its economy, this time to bond investors in local debt. Double digit yields, best credit rating in east Africa, and a fairly valued currency. But other East African trades are more enticing today

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 29/07/2026

Is there anything Trump could say to distract the news cycle if he'd been given the heads up on a Warsh rate hike ?

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 28/07/2026

Somalia inflation 8.1% in June, in perhaps the market's least followed macro release. But at least they produce some data, unlike South Sudan since 2Q2025. Which makes forecasting South Sudan very interesting indeed :-)

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 24/07/2026

Most African countries are winners from the new US tariff regime. Whole of South Asia is hit with 10% tariffs, but east Africa gets 0% and also has AGOA. A boost for Kenya whose exports to the US are already up 32%. North Africa, Angola, Nigeria and South Africa are hit but oil, gold etc exempt

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

Iran, given the cost of rebuilding and its demographic structure, might never get rich. Like Sri Lanka and Thailand

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

Another cut from DRCongo, this time 100bp to 12.5%. Rates were at 25% a year ago. #DRC www.bcc.cd/sites/defaul...

bcc.cd

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 14/07/2026

Despite being an oil importing region and single B credits, now none of Tanzania, Uganda and Kenya have a running IMF deal, with the successful completion of this final review. It remains a backstop if we run into trouble www.imf.org/en/news/arti...

imf.org

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

I've been asked about the proposed Dangote oil refinery in Kenya and its economic impact This story cites Reuters saying it can do done in 3 years, Dangote saying 5 years. Nigeria experience suggests 10 years. So won't spend time on it, yet punchng.com/dangote-brea...

punchng.com

Dangote breaks ground on $17bn Kenya refinery

Dangote Industries Limited begins work on its $17bn, 700,000-bpd Kenya refinery, set to become East Africa's largest and reduce reliance on imported fuels.

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

1,759 cases so far in DRC, but new cases on Tuesday were around 50 (a monthly rate of 1,500) which may just be better data collection. Biggest outbreak in west Africa (2014+) reached nearly 29,000 cases. www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/...

aljazeera.com

Confirmed Ebola deaths in DR Congo hit 600

The number of deaths comes as healthcare workers threaten to walk off the job over a delay in payments.

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

Another big trade data discrepancy, this time in Senegal. Their trade data implies the trade deficit has narrowed nearly 90%, from nearly $7bn in mid-2024 to $0.7bn. But the rest of the world is reporting data suggesting Senegal has a $9bn trade deficit

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

The low fertility rate in #Bangladesh means it has had sufficient savings to invest and grow without eurobond issuance (unlike Latin America in the 20th century or Africa in the 21st century). But now the new govt is considerinng it - it would be low cost en.banglanews24.com/banglanews-s...

en.banglanews24.com

Bangladesh revisits sovereign bonds, mindful of Greece and Sri Lanka

Greece and Sri Lanka faced major crises involving sovereign debt and international bond repayments. However, both countries gradually began to recover from those crises under bailout facilities.

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 06/07/2026

SocGen recommending Kenya infrastructure bonds, due to decreasing CBK rate hike risk, and yields are up vs pre-Hormuz closure. Makes sense for this year

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 05/07/2026

Tanzania rate hike to 6.25pc was flagged by the central bank last month .. inflation still around target and GDP growth is goof www.bot.go.tz/Adverts/Pres...

bot.go.tz

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Reposted by Charlie Robertson

Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm.bsky.social · 25/06/2026

The energy market has transitioned from vicious cycle dynamics to virtuous ones: The fall in insurance premiums (FT reporting below) comes on top of normalizing production/shipment levels and high OPEC+ ceilings,exerting downward pressure on energy costs, with Brent oil now trading below $70 #energy

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Reposted by Charlie Robertson

MarketWire 📡 @marketwire.bsky.social · 24/06/2026

📰 #Finance "Critics dub Aliko Dangote a crony capitalist. He says he is pioneering Asian-style economic development"

ft.com

How a $20bn bet paid off for Africa’s richest man

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 15/06/2026

Pretty amazing to see YoY Murban oil price rises of nearly 120% two months ago, and 49% YoY two weeks ago, become just +18% this morning .. and 12% for Brent.

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Reposted by Charlie Robertson

Mark Chadbourn @chadbourn.bsky.social · 05/06/2026

Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman on what he calls the biggest energy security crisis the world has ever seen: “For me, to be silent is an admission, a humble admission of the fact that I don’t know what will happen. 1/2

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 21/05/2026

The Malawi fuel price here is what happens when a country runs out of strategic fuel reserves, and is already on the brink of default so can’t afford to subsidise

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

My new surprise looking at Africa's GDP figures: the biggest 10 countries account for 2/3 of GDP while the bottom half account for just 10% (the smallest 15 countries only 1.8%) Romania is bigger than any economy in Africa The continent as a whole is a little smaller than France (which is 7th)

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 29/04/2026

I do meet a lot of Nigerians in London, but did not realise the UK is responsible for 2/3 of global "inward personal transfers" to Nigeria, at $12bn of $19bn in total in 2023

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 27/04/2026

As the US sits relatively insulated from the Hormuz closure, Pakistan surprises markets with a 100bp rate hike to 11.5%. Probably the right move, but unhelpful for a government that was getting the macro right since 2023 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

bloomberg.com

Pakistan Raises Key Rate as US-Iran War Increases Energy Costs

Pakistan’s central bank raised its benchmark interest rate for the first time in almost three years, hiking it more than economists expected, as conflict in the Middle East disrupts energy supplies an...

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 25/04/2026

Agreed. There is a contradiction between bigger EU cohesion funding, which requires co-financing from national government, and the requirement for austerity to achieve euro adoption Also austerity probably doesn’t help re-election chances in 2030 So more likely Hungary gets Euro by 2033 or 2034

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 21/04/2026

Foreigners in Japan On the right, the typical controls for a Japanese toilet On the left, a translation polystyrene sticker helpfully provided by the Airbnb host Also on the left, the deep imprints of desperate, frantic foreigners pressing Flush into the translation

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 06/03/2026

I'm less worried about oil going to $100-150/bbl than I am about fuel shortages Countries whose "strategic reserves" barely exist, at 2-4 weeks or less, are usually low income and vulnerable A big SPR release by OECD countries won't easily resolve this (wrong place/wrong type of oil)

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 06/03/2026

I'm less worried about oil going to $100-150/bbl than I am about fuel shortages Countries whose "strategic reserves" barely exist, at 3-4 weeks or less, are usually low income and vulnerable A big SPR release by OECD countries won't easily resolve this (wrong place/type)

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Reposted by Charlie Robertson

Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 05/03/2026

Even in Bahrain - seemingly everyone in EM is sure it should trade wider as the weakest Gulf credit with lots of long-term issues, very high debt to GDP, etc. Yet its long-term debt is back under a spread of 300bps today.

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 02/03/2026

One of the biggest issues from this Iran attack comes from the decision to decapitate the leadership of a country. The tacit understanding not to target leaders means the world has largely avoided tit-for-tat state sponsored assassinations of our leaders. Now, running for office carries higher risk

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 21/02/2026

Disagree with this. Kenya and other (especially textile) African exporters to the US had won a big relative advantage as Trump imposed much higher tariffs on Asia. Factories were wanting to locate to AGOA countries with better access to the US That advantage has now been lost

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 10/02/2026

Africa's trade take off will come with industrialisation, as happened in Asia. In 1950, China and Korea exported $13 and $15 per person, per year. In 2024, $2,510 and $13,212 Even with the EAC, 2024 east Africa is sub-$300 (next post) (Claude in Excel will be blamed for errors :-))

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 22/01/2026

DR Congo is planning to issue a $750m Eurobond in April, a debut for the country. High copper prices and adherence to IMF programme are helpful. I’ve been in debate for some months about where this Eurobond will come, in terms of yield. #DRC #eurobond #frontiermarkets

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 22/01/2026

Nedbank has put in an offer to one of Kenya's bigger banks NCBA, which Standard Bank was expected to buy. FDI of 0.6% of GDP. South Africans appear to recognise the conclusions of the Time Travelling Economist, that Kenya will be the next country to industrialise in SSA (the first since Mauritius)

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 13/01/2026

There are no bears left on gold forecasts. They've all given up. The median forecast for Dec-2026 is now 30% above the extreme record gold price in 2025, which is the highest we've ever seen This despite world peace for 39 of the top 40 economies and globally low inflation Odd

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 12/01/2026

South Africa is getting its mojo back Total vehicle sales the highest since the boom year of 2007 (SA had 49m population then vs 64m now). This is good news even though SA is no longer Africa's biggest producer Morocco (see The Time Travelling Economist for why) has taken first place

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 12/01/2026

Mozambique's opposition leader VM7 makes a good point. The dominant political parties (the old liberation movements) are facing severe challenges across southern Africa This hints at why he backed down in 2024/25. He's playing the long game, earning trust of incumbents www.ft.com/content/b13a...

ft.com

Young Africans turning on liberation parties, opposition leader says

Venâncio Mondlane, who claims Mozambique’s election was stolen from him, says days of anti-colonial movements are ‘numbered’

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 12/01/2026

This is excess labour (“disposables” says the Russian), probably from Uganda, finding jobs via emigration The Time Travelling Economist thesis shows up even in Putin’s invasion of Ukraine

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 12/01/2026

This can only feed the gold narrative (even if the gold price is more about central bank buying and speculation) Trump must be angry that the Fed won’t cut rates in January and help him (try and) win the mid-terms

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 31/12/2025

What a great year for Frontier markets and Africa in particular Nigeria stock market up 67% in $ Egypt 55% Kenya 51% Morocco 45% And all of them except Morocco are still cheap in p/e terms. US under Trump left far behind, up just 18%. (Latam numbers might change in next few hours)

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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 01/12/2025

The freeing up of currencies in Egypt, Nigeria and Ethiopia have made them plausible FDI targets again. Portfolio investors have already profited from the better backdrop and are the pathfinders for FDI. Meanwhile, Gulf interest is booming in Africa, from mining to logistics to energy

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Reposted by Charlie Robertson

Roland Smith @rolandmcs.bsky.social · 01/12/2025

It is just incredible that the people who always go on about immigration and muslims and sharia law in Britain are the first to promote British immigration into a muslim country with sharia law.

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