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Johan Ugander

@jugander.bsky.social
3.5K followers 557 following 209 posts

Associate Professor, Yale Statistics & Data Science. Social networks, social and behavioral data, causal inference, mountains. jugander.github.io

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Reposted by Johan Ugander
Isabel Silva Corpus @isabelcorpus.bsky.social · 11h
In 2023, Change.org integrated an AI-assisted writing tool into their platform. We found that access to the tool changed platform trends in petition text, but that outcomes (signatures and comments) did not improve... Excited that this paper is out, check it out! 🔗: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Introducing AI to an online petition platform changed outputs but not outcomes - Nature Human Behaviour
Corpus et al. examine how the introduction of an AI writing tool impacted Change.org petitions, finding that it increased petition homogeneity but did not improve petition outcomes.
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Will Lowe @conjugateprior.org · 12h
What is your estimand?
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Chris Bail @chrisbail.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Interested in the social impact of AI? Consider applying for this new post-doc at Duke's Society-Centered AI Initiative: academicjobsonline.org/ajo/jobs/32805
academicjobsonline.org
Duke University, Social Science Research Institute
Job #AJO32805, Postdoctoral Associate, Social Science Research Institute, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, US
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Per Engzell @pengzell.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Need new examples for teaching confounding and reverse causality to my undergrads. Send any published statistical crimes my way please.
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Johan Ugander @jugander.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
My Yale colleague Dan Spielman has started a substack, which I thought I'd signal boost since Dan is an outstanding thinker and communicator (and person!) but isn't on social media much. Here's his first substantive post from a month ago: mathadjacent.com/p/llms-testi...
mathadjacent.com
LLMs, Testing, Grade inflation, and Accommodations
Like every professor, I’ve been worrying about how AI systems will force us to change our teaching practices.
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Hakeem Jefferson @hakeemjefferson.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Nikole Hannah-Jones w/ a sobering follow-up on her decision yrs ago to enroll her daughter in a poor, majority-Black public school rather than a wealthier, whiter private school. You leave heartbroken for the kids being failed by this grossly unequal system. www.nytimes.com/2026/09/20/m...
nytimes.com
In Fighting for Every Black Child, Did I Betray My Own? (Gift Article)
A decade ago, I made a decision about my daughter’s education that I hoped would challenge New York City’s separate and unequal school system. Now 16, she thinks I made the wrong choice.
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Clément Canonne @ccanonne.github.io · 17/09/2026
The Call for Papers for #STOC2027 is up! Importantly, the PC "will place substantial weight on the quality of exposition, and clarity of technical arguments and proofs" Also: - Public posting requirement - Required video submission and more. Deadline: ⏰ Nov 2, AoE acm-stoc.org/stoc2027/sto...
Policy experiments for STOC 2027: In light of rapid advances in generative AI and their impact on research and scientific communication, STOC 2027 is experimenting with several new policies intended to encourage high-quality submissions and promote clear and effective communication of research. The policies below include mandatory public posting and mandatory video submission. Detailed instructions for these two requirements will be released closer to the paper submission deadline.
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Johan Ugander @jugander.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Setting the doomer bits aside, to me the core challenge here sounds a lot like experimenter demand effects: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demand_...
en.wikipedia.org
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Gautam Kamath @gautamkamath.com · 16/09/2026
Nihar Shah did a heroic experiment for TMLR: he spent 20-25 hours over two weeks interviewing authors of seemingly low-quality submissions about their own papers. He confirmed what we all suspected: people submitting these papers have *no idea* what is going on in them.
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Dan Björkegren @dbjork.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
We're hiring an assistant professor in AI/data science and public policy at Columbia University! For best results apply by Sept 30 apply.interfolio.com/190715
apply.interfolio.com
Apply - Interfolio {{$ctrl.$state.data.pageTitle}} - Apply - Interfolio
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Ruben C. Arslan @ruben.the100.ci · 11/09/2026
An interesting thing is happening to me at the moment. I have a standing bug bounty policy for my first authored scientific work. That means, I've committed to pay people who report bugs in my code, up to 750€ for severe errors. Since GPT-6 Astra came out, I'm now getting several bug reports daily.
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Clément Canonne @ccanonne.github.io · 08/09/2026
Well, this Navier-Stokes affair did blow up in finite time
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Johan Ugander @jugander.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Every time.
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Alejandra Caraballo @esqueer.net · 02/09/2026
This is an absolutely catastrophic data breach of an identity verification vendor 150+ million drivers license scans that includes photos, address, license numbers etc. It includes Pete Hegseth, security researchers, and even the deputy director of the FBI. krebsonsecurity.com/2026/09/fbi-...
A screenshot of a search result on a website titled "NEXUS | Identity Document Database" showing a locked Minnesota driver's license record for "PETER HEG******." A driver's license portrait of Peter Hegseth appears on the left, next to mostly redacted information fields, including ID number, birth date (1980), and address, followed by a prompt to purchase the full record for $100.00.
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Dan Larremore @danlarremore.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
data colada but for earnings calls
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CODE@MIT @codemit.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Submissions for CODE@MIT are open until Sept 13th. As @dholtz.bsky.social noted www.linkedin.com/feed/update/... we're particularly interested in these topics this year:

 - New metrics and outcomes for changing products and user experiences (e.g., designing outcome measures for conversational, generative, and other complex products; measuring productivity and the quality of product-development and experimentation processes; distinguishing meaningful outcomes from engagement and other intermediate signals; constructing metrics from text and high-dimensional behavioral data; validating AI-generated labels, evaluations, and measures)

 - Using experiments to uncover causal mechanisms (e.g., moving beyond average treatment effects and ship/no-ship decisions to understand why interventions work; using process data (including AI-mediated conversations) to reconstruct heterogeneous user experiences; causal mediation and mechanism discovery; identifying which components of complex or AI-based treatments generate observed effects; using AI tools to analyze previously intractable qualitative and behavioral data)

- Experimental design under rapid iteration and treatment abundance (e.g., designing experiments when AI and other technologies make treatments inexpensive and continuously generated; exploring large, continuous, or combinatorial treatment spaces; allocating scarce traffic across many candidate interventions; integrating offline and synthetic evaluation, factorial designs, bandits, and sequential experiments; determining the diminishing value of additional treatments and iterations)
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Ethan Zuckerman @ethanz.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
News so big that Donald Trump had to upstage it by renaming Lake Ontario: ethanzuckerman.com/2026/08/27/m... (TL;DR) I will be starting a new lab at McGill University in Montreal next summer as Goldenberg Chair in the Digital Public Sphere.)
ethanzuckerman.com
My personal contribution to the US/Canada trade war - Ethan Zuckerman
I've accepted a position at McGill University and will be moving my lab there from UMass in summer 2027... with excitement and some sadness.
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Farnaz Jahanbakhsh @farnazj.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
📰 Our piece with @ziv-e.bsky.social and @mbernst.bsky.social in The Conversation today. Feed algorithms optimize for engagement behavior because it is easy to measure. The result is that the values amplified in people's feeds are misaligned with what they value. theconversation.com/why-social-m...
theconversation.com
Why social media algorithms send you posts you don’t like
Algorithms on X tend to bring you posts that contradict your values, and it happens more to Democrats than Republicans.
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Ziv Epstein @ziv-e.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Do our social media algorithms correctly reflect our values? Our new article published today in @pnas.org shows that the answer is often not, and that the content that gets promoted into their ranked feeds is often actively counter to our values.
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Kenny Peng @kennypeng.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
New York City 8th graders choose from 900+ high schools to apply to, in a process that’s spawned Facebook groups and dozens of expensive consulting services. Our new paper shows how application behavior leads to disparities, and how to effectively intervene. 🧵 www.nature.com/articles/s44...
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Johan Ugander @jugander.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
New work out in PNAS studying what values were amplified on X (in Oct 2024), led by @ziv-e.bsky.social, paper here: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/... coverage below!
pnas.org
Value misalignments in X’s feed algorithm is a reflection of value tensions in engagement | PNAS
Social media feed algorithms rank content that is purported to be preferred by users, but the engagement behaviors that drive these algorithms are ...
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Neil Shephard @neilshephard.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
This seems to me a big step forward. I recently "finished" a new paper and put it through refine.ink. I thought the resulting 14 page report was as good as any referee report I have ever got back and it appeared in about 20 minutes. I hope all econometrics (and statistics) journals will follow.
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Johan Ugander @jugander.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
"…there is currently no way for independent researchers to draw truly random samples from TikTok, and it is thus impossible for them to generalize any sample-based findings to the platform as a whole."
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Martin Saveski @msaveski.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
Looking forward to giving a tutorial on 𝗦𝗼𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗠𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗮 𝗙𝗲𝗲𝗱 𝗥𝗮𝗻𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗔𝗹𝗴𝗼𝗿𝗶𝘁𝗵𝗺𝘀 with @tiziano.bsky.social at @ic2s2.bsky.social! 🕜 𝗧𝗶𝗺𝗲: Tuesday, 1-4 pm 📍 𝗟𝗼𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: Mansfield (210). 🌐 𝗪𝗲𝗯𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗲: social-media-ais.github.io/ic2s2-26-tut...
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Dean Eckles @eckles.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
We're excited to be hosting CODE@MIT again this fall! We invite a mix of work involving experimentation — methods, cool experiments, industry reports, etc. Look for more info later on this year's invited speakers.
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em @foremphasis.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Principle component analysis
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lynn @chordbug.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
fixed your headline
A hit song on the Billboard 100 charts is termed *$k$-good* if it is _ever_ in a weekly top-$k$, and *$k$-immediate* if it _debuts_ in the top-$k$.


An artist is *$(n,k)$-Olivian* if their $n$ first $k$-good hits are all also $k$-immediate.

*Headline 1.* Olivia Rodrigo is the first $(10,10)$-Olivian woman.
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Matthew O. Jackson @jacksonmatthewo.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
The next Network Science and Economics Conference NSE-12 will be held at the University of Luxembourg Oct 23-25, 2026! Here is a call for papers (due July 31): www.stanford.edu/~jacksonm/Ca... and the conference series webpage: web.stanford.edu/~jacksonm/NS...
stanford.edu
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Johan Ugander @jugander.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
Anna Gilbert's commentary on the upcoming First Proof, Part Deux round of AI math proofing evaluations.
annagilbert.substack.com
First Proof, Second Proof
There will be a webinar at 1pm east coast time today to announce the results of First Proof Second Batch.
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Huw Swanborough @huwroscience.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
This is just to say, I failed to replicate the work, that was not very rigorous, but was in Nature. And which you were probably relying on for grant applications Forgive me, the methods were inappropriate, so vague and so many assumptions.
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Uri Simonsohn @urisohn.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
I will be visiting Yale SOM for AY 2026/2027 The visit includes me teaching an interdisciplinary PhD methods course. If you often experience New Havenness, ask your Dr (advisor) whether "Methods Stumblers" may be right for you.
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David Liu @david-m-liu.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
🚨Maine Primary Forecast 🚨 Polls show the crowded Maine primaries are in a dead heat heading into June 9. But Maine uses ranked-choice voting, and these polls focus only on first choices. Today, my collaborators and I released ranked-choice forecasts. 👇 dliu18.github.io/maine-2026-p...
dliu18.github.io
Polling Ranked Choices for the 2026 Maine Primaries
Ranked-choice polling analysis and simulations for the 2026 Maine primaries.
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Johan Ugander @jugander.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
A love letter to Deep Springs in today's NYT. Seems like a good time to mention: Stephanie and I are very excited to both be teaching short courses there next May-June ("Term 6", 2027).
nytimes.com
Opinion | A Cattle Ranch Is Doing What the Ivy League Can’t
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Renee DiResta @noupside.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
“@grok is this true” coming to Meta soon
threads • ° > Coming soon on
Threads 2h
@ Threads
We're testing a way for you to ask Meta Al questions here on Threads 4 1/2
meta.ai • 2h
Tag @meta.ai to get context, closure, or comedy.
Sometimes all three.
More people need to rate
This is Threads. If Al is needed to post a thread about their own thoughts, perhaps this style of social ... more
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Tiago Peixoto @tiago.skewed.de · 12/05/2026
This is a good point: if you will use a machine to write code you don't understand, why does it have to be Python? medium.com/@NMitchem/if...
medium.com
If AI Writes Your Code, Why Use Python?
For the last decade, fast-to-ship beat fast-to-run. Not anymore.
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Nikhil Garg @nkgarg.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
We are very excited to announce our first workshop on From Theory to Practice: behind the scenes on research deployments at EC’26 (July 6 in Rome)! Call for posters and submissions now open! Organized by myself, @ericachiang.bsky.social , Bailey Flanigan, @brwilder.bsky.social
sites.google.com
Home
About This workshop will focus on the practical realities of deploying algorithmic and economic systems from academic research, especially with government and non-profit partners. While economics and ...
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Johan Ugander @jugander.bsky.social · 09/05/2026
A post from @wtgowers.bsky.social on math research with reasoning LLMs (e.g., ChatGPT 5.5-Pro). Having similar experiences and agree with his reflections. gowers.wordpress.com/2026/05/08/a...
gowers.wordpress.com
A recent experience with ChatGPT 5.5 Pro
We are all having to keep revising upwards our assessments of the mathematical capabilities of large language models. I have just made a fairly large revision as a result of ChatGPT 5.5 Pro, to whi…
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Thomas Davidson @thomasdavidson.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
Lots of provocations here, looking forward to reading. Its a brave new world for social science! I'm optimisic about automating the "boring parts" of research, but pessimistic about implications of the deluge of slop (its bad enough already). Two threads I find interesting re agentic research:
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Per Engzell @pengzell.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
What can we learn from automating an entire quantitative social science paper, from prompt to finished product? Thread about ongoing work with @natewilmers.bsky.social 1/12 Paper: osf.io/preprints/so...
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Johan Ugander @jugander.bsky.social · 03/05/2026
I'm at MIT tomorrow, Monday, giving the Sloan OM Seminar, 11:45a–1p. Talking about recent work on causal inference under "structured" interference w/ Kevin Han and Shuangning Li. MIT folks, come say hi!
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Maria Antoniak @mariaa.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
“We have many years of experience picking apart the work of the world’s best security researchers, and Mythos Preview is every bit as capable. So far we’ve found no category or complexity of vulnerability that humans can find that this model can’t.”
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Mike Frank @mcxfrank.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
Just wrote a new blogpost trying to summarize my thoughts on the question of how and whether to use AI for research in psychology and cognitive science: babieslearninglanguage.blogspot.com/2026/04/usin...
babieslearninglanguage.blogspot.com
Using AI to improve (not automate away) academic research
Blog about fatherhood, langauge, developmental psychology, and cognitive science.
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Chris Bail @chrisbail.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
New job in computational social science: lu.varbi.com/en/what:job/...
lu.varbi.com
Assistant Professor in collaborative civil defence and crisis management, with a focus on computational methods
Department of Building and Environmental Technology   at Lund University, Faculty of Engineering invites applications for a position as Assistant Professor. We are currently seeking a promising early
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Johan Ugander @jugander.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
Was reminded of this one-page 1988 love letter to differential equations by @stevenstrogatz.com, and looked it up and re-read it. Such a gem. ai.stanford.edu/~rajatr/arti...
ai.stanford.edu
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Johan Ugander @jugander.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
Paper is full of great detailed examples of "shifting goalposts":
2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 CPD goalposts.
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Vincent Conitzer @conitzer.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
sounds legit
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Thomas Lumley @tslumley.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
The arc of history is long and has extremely poor convergence bounds
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Rachit Dubey @rachitdubey.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
🚨New preprint and our results are rather concerning.. We find the "boiling frog" equivalent of AI use. Using large-scale RCTs, we provide *casual* evidence that AI assistance reduces persistence and hurts independent performance. And these effects emerge after just 10–15 minutes of AI use! 1/
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Ben Recht @beenwrekt.bsky.social · 06/04/2026
In lieu of lecture blogging on simulation and prediction, check out this fortuitously timed op-ed in the NY Times by @leifw.bsky.social and me on the absurdity of Silicon Sampling. (Related lecture blog tomorrow!)
nytimes.com
Opinion | It’s Called Silicon Sampling, and It’s Going to Ruin Public Opinion Polling
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Louis @louisevans.bsky.social · 06/04/2026
lmao this one is incredible. “Head of product at X condemns quote-tweeting” my brother in Jira you’re the shift manager at the quote tweet factory
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