iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

I have a 5 year old and have been wondering what college will look like for her in 13 years. Pretty sure nobody is going to be paying decent money for any education other than “everything is in person oral or hand written and AI is banned from class”.

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

I built a statistical model to forecast ski conditions using seasonal climate models. Summit at Snoqualmie in Washington has the worst ski forecast in the western US this winter. Makes sense given the “El Niño on steroids” model signal. Go south for better skiing ⛷️ Try it out: where2.ski

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Who in their right mind is going to use OpenAI models after this???

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

Will SoCal feel the effects of Hurricane Marie this weekend? Yes, but it won't be a major weather event. Impacts: - Increased surf (!!! dangerous for holiday weekend !!!) - Increased cloud cover - Warmer temperatures and higher humidity - Scattered rain showers (trace-0.10" for most)

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Brian Tang @btangywx.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

There is considerable ensemble spread in Hurricane Lowell's eventual turn northward starting sometime this weekend. About half of the 12Z ECMWF ensemble members have a track near/over the Hawaiian islands that could result in concerning impacts early next week.

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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

Update: The tropical weather feature of great interest--Tropical Storm (& soon hurricane) #Marie--has now developed. Marie's track will dictate potential CA impacts over Labor Day; uncertainty remains high, w/significant impacts possible (but direct landfall unlikely). [Thread]

Snapshot from polarwx.com showing Marie's projected path as depicted by ECMWF and GFS ensembles. Note the bifurcated trajectory--one westward, one northward.

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

Current weather near the beach in San Diego: Fog with a dew point of 72. Instant sweat sufferfest.

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Nahel Belgherze @wxnb.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

An incredibly well-timed Landsat 9 pass captured the effects of yesterday’s catastrophic glacier collapse near the Nepal–Tibet border. The event was so massive that it was detected by seismometers around the world.

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 21/08/2026

Final Hawaii precipitation maps from Hurricane Lala. I pulled gauge observations and blended that with model data to get the spatial pattern. My method estimates a max of 45 inches on the southeastern flank of Mauna Loa, but there were no gauges in that area to verify.

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

Can the Mariners do anything normal? Probably going to win 15-0 today 😂

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 16/08/2026

Updated big island of Hawaii rainfall totals for Hurricane Lala. I had to add more colors to my colormap. Up to 35 inches (!!!) of rainfall.

Station-plot map of Hawaii's Big Island on a grey shaded-relief background, showing storm rainfall totals from Hurricane Lala between 14 August 00:00 and 16 August 16:36 UTC. Each of 54 rain gauges is a black dot labeled with its total in inches, colored on a radar-style scale running purple and blue for hundredths of an inch, through green, yellow and brown, to red and pink above 16 inches.

Rainfall is extremely uneven and follows the terrain. Two maxima stand out. In the Ka'u district on the south flank of Mauna Loa, Nene Cabin above Pahala recorded the island maximum of 35.60 inches, with 23 to 25 inches at Pahala, Kapapala and Lower Kahuku nearby. On the windward Hilo and Hamakua slopes, Hakalau reached 33.81 inches and Silver Sword 33.47, with Saddle Road Quarry at 28.70 and Mountain View at 25.94. Between them, the Saddle gauges took 20 to 25 inches.

The leeward west side stayed nearly dry: the Kona coast gauges range from 1.11 to 2.39 inches, and the Waikoloa and Waimea area from 3 to 5 inches. Hilo airport itself, on the coast below the orographic maximum, recorded only 7.86 inches, far less than the gauges 10 kilometers upslope. North Kohala is intermediate at 4 to 19 inches.

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 16/08/2026

Impressive rainfall totals on the big island of Hawaii from Hurricane Lala. Might not be a landfall but this is the perfect track to dump rain on the eastern slopes. Max of 19 inches and counting on the east side of Mauna Kea.

Map of Hawaii Island (the Big Island) on grey shaded-relief terrain, with 1000-metre elevation contours showing Kohala in the north, Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa in the centre, and Kīlauea to the southeast. A black dot marks each of 54 rain gauges, labelled with its storm total in inches and coloured on a discrete scale from purple and blue at hundredths of an inch, through green and yellow near 1–3 inches, to brown and red above 8 inches.

Rainfall is strongly organised by terrain. The windward eastern and northeastern slopes are wettest: 19.00 inches at Silver Sword and 18.16 at Hakalau on the east flank of Mauna Kea, 17.21 in the Kohala mountains, and 16.66, 16.30 and 13.24 down the Hilo and Puna slopes. Totals fall off sharply toward the coast — the Hilo airport gauge on the waterfront reads 3.91 inches against 8 to 11 inches on the slopes a few kilometres inland. The southern flank of Mauna Loa and the Kaʻū district run 6 to 13 inches.

The leeward Kona coast on the west side is nearly dry, with totals of 0.02 to 0.52 inches, and the central saddle between the two big volcanoes is similarly light at 0.48 to 1.81 inches. The wettest and driest gauges lie roughly 60 kilometres apart.

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

It seems like posts/engagement have trended way down on Bluesky other than a few niche communities. Are folks back on the dreaded X now? Or somewhere else? Curious where all the weather discussion has gone.

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

Is anyone else out there in the science world dealing with the dramatic change in our day-to-day jobs that occurred in the last year? I can't be the only one who hasn't written a line of code since spring and now directs agents who are becoming increasingly autonomous. This all happened crazy fast.

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

While most of the West is either scorching hot or on fire or both, SoCal is experiencing a marine heat wave. Dew points have hovered in the mid-60s F in LA and San Diego since early July -- around 90th percentile. Not quite the perfect weather they are known for, but the ocean is nice to swim in!

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 02/08/2026

Made it to MLB ballpark #17 last night — Angel Stadium. Loved every second of it for the nostalgia factor. No frills and reasonable prices. I hope it never changes.

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 02/08/2026

Sending thoughts to Spokane tonight, terrible to see wildfires spreading through populated areas.

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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 17/07/2026

A major new wildfire outbreak is now underway across interior Pacific Northwest, with dozens (or more) new wildfires already popping up in eastern Oregon & Washington following tens of thousands of lightning strikes in region experiencing moderate to extreme drought. #ORwx #WAwx

Current Watch Duty snapshot across PacNW, showing literally dozens of new fires in eastern Washington and Oregon.

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 11/07/2026

Got a close up of the marine layer hole over Santa Catalina Island on my flight out of San Diego this morning. I think this is fairly common but it’s new to me!

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Jeremiah Oshan @jeremiah.sounderatheart.com · 30/06/2026

Impressive stuff going on in Seattle where virtually all transit agencies are setting ridership records and neighborhoods are seeing record visitors.

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Dakota Smith @weatherdak.bsky.social · 29/06/2026

Aaaaand the Colorado Rockies are covered in smoke.

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 08/06/2026

My first full day in San Diego and there is a wildfire nearby. Makes it easy to see the height of the marine layer…

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 04/06/2026

If you’re wondering how the World Cup is going in Seattle, Airbnb just emailed us offering cash bonuses in exchange for securing bookings during matches. The exorbitant dynamic pricing / politics has likely backfired and I suspect Seattle will have the same or less tourists than a typical summer.

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 20/05/2026

If this is my last Mariners game before I leave Seattle, I choose to remember this and not seeing us get one hit twice in three days... (first foul ball after several hundred lifetime baseball games)

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 16/05/2026

The snow level is below 3,000 ft in the Cascades this morning. It’s even snowing at Longmire!

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 01/05/2026

Not surprising, but most of the PNW is expected to have above normal risk of significant wildfires by July-August.

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 15/04/2026

This thunderstorm produced a waterspout over Puget Sound! Photo via Reddit.

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Michael Tippett 🎃 @mktippett.bsky.social · 09/04/2026

Probability of super El Nino vs probability of super duper turbocharged El Nino? Check out the strength forecast cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ana...

The bars show the chance of El Niño (red bars), ENSO-Neutral (grey bars), and La Niña (blue bars) provided for 9 upcoming, overlapping 3-month seasons (each letter represents a month, for example, F = February). The color shading within the bars indicates the chances of different categories of El Niño or La Niña strength (weak, moderate, strong, and very strong). Looking pretty super

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Crawford Kilian @crof.bsky.social · 02/04/2026

Well, this is simply infuriating. Someone's got to fight this in court. BREAKING: Trump Administration Orders Dismantling of the U.S. Forest Service open.substack.com/pub/morethan...

open.substack.com

BREAKING: Trump Administration Orders Dismantling of the U.S. Forest Service

The headquarters is going to Utah. Every regional office is being shuttered. The research program is being destroyed.

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Nahel Belgherze @wxnb.bsky.social · 25/03/2026

As the first reanalysis data become available, I think I can say with a fairly high degree of confidence that the March 2026 heatwave will go down as the most anomalously extreme heat event ever observed at any time of year in the southwestern U.S.

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 25/03/2026

Colorado snowpack is melting out three weeks ahead of the previous record. This is happening at 1.5C of warming. What will the record year look like at 2 or 2.5C?

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Andrew Dessler @andrewdessler.com · 24/03/2026

Is climate change making cold extremes more frequent/severe? No This plot shows the difference in temperature of the 0.2% coldest hourly temps (from ERA5) from two periods: 2000-2019 and 1980-1999. Red colors indicate that the later period had warmer extreme cold temperatures.

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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 20/03/2026

Earlier today, I was asked to comment on the current state of American disaster preparedness. That was already a fraught question, even prior to present chaos, but then I saw today's headlines. 🫠 "Top Disaster Response Official Claims He Teleported to a Waffle House"

Screenshot of a Rolling Stone headline that reads "Top Disaster Response Official Claims He Teleported to a Waffle House: FEMA's Gregg Phillips says he has experienced multiple "scary" episodes of sudden teleportation."

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Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 19/03/2026

I've interviewed more than a dozen hydrologists and climatologists across the West the past 10 days. A sense of panic is starting to set in. Wildfires and water shortages will start mounting this summer. Adverse impacts are expected from not only this heat wave, but the historically warm winter.

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 17/03/2026

The upcoming SW USA heat dome is predicted to be so anomalous that the 500 hPa heights over the entire region will exceed every historical daily max (1990-2025) from now until JUNE. This may be a short lived event, but the consequences for snowpack, water supply, and drought will be felt all year.

Map of western and central North America showing the earliest calendar date (Mar 17 to Jun 16) when historical 500 hPa heights met or exceeded the current 10-day forecast peak at each grid point. Gray areas indicate locations where that threshold was already met by today. Earliest dates (purple/blue, late March to mid-April) cluster in parts of the Southwest and southern Plains, while later dates (orange/yellow, May to mid-June) appear across much of California, Nevada, Utah, and nearby interior regions.”

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Jacob DeFlitch @wxdeflitch.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

Major shades of '21 Pacific Northwest heat event. EFI maxed out across the majority of the Western US, for multiple consecutive days.

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Russ Schumacher @rschumacher.cloud · 14/03/2026

By how much and for how long will the upcoming weather pattern--an astonishing anticyclone--be breaking March records in the west? A lot, and a long time. Here's GFS forecast 500hPa height compared to the March record. Breaking monthly records by >50m, and 2 to 5+ days in monthly record territory.

500-hPa height from the 00 UTC 14 March 2026 GFS forecast. Top left is the ERA5 max for March; top right is the maximum predicted in the model over the run out to 360 hrs; bottom left is the difference between the two, and bottom right is the number of 6-hr forecast times that would be above the ERA5 monthly max. It shows broad areas where the 500-hPa height will be more than 50 m higher than previously observed in March, and the entire southwest will spend at least two full days in monthly record territory

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 14/03/2026

That storm made a nice dent in the WA state snowfall deficit. However, it wasn’t enough to get up to the 10th percentile line. Snowpack remains low, but at least we’re well clear of historic lows. A warm atmospheric river next week will be a net negative for snowpack.

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WSDOT East @east.wsdot.wa.gov · 13/03/2026

US 2 Stevens Pass is now closed between milepost 55 and 85 because our plows are not able to clear the road due to illegally parked vehicles at the summit. If you have selfishly chosen to block our crews and first responders, come move your car off the highway.

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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 13/03/2026

All signs continue to point to an exceptional, long-duration, and record-breaking to (in some cases) record-shattering March heatwave initially centered across U.S. Southwest but expanding to much broader region next week. This is effectively a full-on summer heatwave in March.

Map of projected temperature anomalies next Thursday across the western U.S. from the ECMWF ensemble. The entire map is bright red and pink, indicative of extreme to record-breaking March warmth. Some location will be 25-30F degrees above average, with a few locations warming over 35F (!) above average.

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 13/03/2026

Incredible to see a mid-March snowfall in Seattle. I saw the high-res models showing snow last night and didn't believe them!

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Alan Gerard @wxmanms1.bsky.social · 13/03/2026

The latest run of the European ensemble model has 500 mb heights a week from now around 5960 m over southern AZ. To give some perspective on how insane that is, that would be the orange dot on the SPC graph of Tucson historical 500 mb heights (red line is all-time highest)

500 mb height forecast from the European ensemble model for midday next Thursday

Climatological record of 500 mb heights at Tuscon from SPC, with an orange dot showing the forecast from the model.

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Scott Sistek @scottseattlewx.bsky.social · 13/03/2026

The #Seattle area may see some wet snow between the pre-dawn hours Friday until about mid morning -- yes, including the Friday morning commute -- with slushy accumulations on grassy surfaces. Get the scoop in the ECWB: emeraldcityweather.com/atmospheric-... #wawx #wasnow

emeraldcityweather.com

Atmospheric river may bring some slushy snow to Seattle and Puget Sound region Friday - Emerald City Weather Blog

So, about that Friday the 13th… To say this week’s weather has been wacky is to sell “wacky”

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 12/03/2026

The upcoming western US heatwave will be of similar proportion to the 2021 PNW heatwave -- setting records that are well outside of the existing climatology.

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 11/03/2026

Absurd heat! Despite our best efforts, the monster heat dome is bound to be "undersold" by the meteorology community. Why? Because intensity like this is almost never seen. This thing has the potential to be Epic for Mid-March, and not in a good way… 1/

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 08/03/2026

Some exciting weather on tap for next week, cold onshore flow Mon-Tue followed by an atmospheric river Wed-Thu with low snow levels (2-4K ft). Could be the biggest mountain snow event of the season for WA. Desperately needed. Tuesday morning could see snow showers close to sea level as well.

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