iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

A Kelvin Wave associated with El Niño will bring higher sea levels to California this fall, likely causing coastal flooding. The coastal wave is now approaching California from the south. It's tricky to track these things but I made a decent attempt...

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Reposted by Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik

Would it dong? (again) @woulditdongagain.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Ty France vs Trevor Megill Flyout 💢 Exit velo: 105.3 mph Launch angle: 49 deg Projected distance: 325 ft This would have been a home run at Daikin Park and nowhere else SD @ MIL 🔺 9th

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

I’ve been to over 100 games in that park and watched 500 more and never seen a ball hit the roof. 49 degrees isn’t a HR anyway but it could have bounced sideways or something. What a relief

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Officially 105F in San Diego today, that goes down as the 6th warmest day on record, warmest since 1988. Can confirm, it’s hot here.

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

The main thing I'm telling people is that it's the most confident that I have ever been in a seasonal forecast. Book your ski trip to Colorado. Buy as much flood insurance as possible if you live in CA. Stock up on coffee. Otherwise it seems like we just wait for the storms.

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

I have a 5 year old and have been wondering what college will look like for her in 13 years. Pretty sure nobody is going to be paying decent money for any education other than “everything is in person oral or hand written and AI is banned from class”.

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

This is really interesting! I added a couple of ELI visuals and forecasts to the bottom of this page: enso.theconvergencezone.com/ocean.html

enso.theconvergencezone.com

El Niño Climate Monitor — The Convergence Zone

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

The way I designed the model made it tricky to forecast low snowfall locations, but I can try some other ways to get them included

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Sounds like atmospheric rivers in the Sierra!

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

I will add sno parks in the next version!

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

I noticed my model has the "rain risk" fairly high in the Sierras but the base depth outlook is so good from all the precip that the forecast turns out excellent overall.

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

It doesn’t have the ability to do hindcasts but I wouldn’t expect it to be any better

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Hopefully some storms go north, otherwise California is going to be buried/flooded

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

No, that adds weight to resorts that have a higher percentage of groomed terrain. If you don't click any preferences then you're getting the pure weather outlook unweighted. Nordic is a good idea though! I will see if I can add that in.

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

I built a statistical model to forecast ski conditions using seasonal climate models. Summit at Snoqualmie in Washington has the worst ski forecast in the western US this winter. Makes sense given the “El Niño on steroids” model signal. Go south for better skiing ⛷️ Try it out: where2.ski

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Who in their right mind is going to use OpenAI models after this???

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

We're also in the golden era of niche side projects. Seems like everyone I'm talking to is building something that has been in their head for years but the barrier to execute was too high.

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

I heard it described that AI make smart people smarter and dumb people dumber and I've yet to find any evidence to the contrary.

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

We will when their EVs get here, which is inevitable

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

Will SoCal feel the effects of Hurricane Marie this weekend? Yes, but it won't be a major weather event. Impacts: - Increased surf (!!! dangerous for holiday weekend !!!) - Increased cloud cover - Warmer temperatures and higher humidity - Scattered rain showers (trace-0.10" for most)

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Reposted by Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik

Brian Tang @btangywx.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

There is considerable ensemble spread in Hurricane Lowell's eventual turn northward starting sometime this weekend. About half of the 12Z ECMWF ensemble members have a track near/over the Hawaiian islands that could result in concerning impacts early next week.

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Reposted by Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik

Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

Update: The tropical weather feature of great interest--Tropical Storm (& soon hurricane) #Marie--has now developed. Marie's track will dictate potential CA impacts over Labor Day; uncertainty remains high, w/significant impacts possible (but direct landfall unlikely). [Thread]

Snapshot from polarwx.com showing Marie's projected path as depicted by ECMWF and GFS ensembles. Note the bifurcated trajectory--one westward, one northward.

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

I've discovered that SoCal has some crazy popular weather influencers and getting juicy 300+ hour GFS forecasts is like their Super Bowl. Some of those posts were in the 100s of thousands of impressions.

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

Seems like a strong argument in favor of the second downtown tunnel

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

Hmm...Lala seems to have contributed to the ongoing polar jet amplification. The downstream trough is digging south to California this week, potentially opening a pathway for future TC Marie to impact California next weekend.

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

Because posts like this get 100K impressions…

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

Current weather near the beach in San Diego: Fog with a dew point of 72. Instant sweat sufferfest.

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Nahel Belgherze @wxnb.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

An incredibly well-timed Landsat 9 pass captured the effects of yesterday’s catastrophic glacier collapse near the Nepal–Tibet border. The event was so massive that it was detected by seismometers around the world.

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

I did not pull wunderground, interesting idea though

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 21/08/2026

I feel bad for her because the AI tech hiring slowdown that started before she got elected is still in the early stages of percolating through Seattle's economy and she's going to bear the brunt of the blame for it.

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 21/08/2026

The folks running the Hawaii mesonet must have a fun job getting to some of these sites. Kudos to them. Back in grad school we placed some rain gauges in an old riverbed in Olympic NP...then a big storm came and re-routed the river onto the gauges. Found them nearby and got the data off of them!

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 21/08/2026

That area is in Hawaii Volcanoes National Park so it's very remote. No roads, no buildings, nothing.

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 21/08/2026

Final Hawaii precipitation maps from Hurricane Lala. I pulled gauge observations and blended that with model data to get the spatial pattern. My method estimates a max of 45 inches on the southeastern flank of Mauna Loa, but there were no gauges in that area to verify.

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

Can the Mariners do anything normal? Probably going to win 15-0 today 😂

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

That’s wild! Natural variability or can some component of this be tied to larger scale forcing / climate?

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

I agree the 35-37 inch ones look legit. Impressive station density in areas that are quite remote

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

I'll throw the rest on my map if they give me an API key but for now I got Laupaehoehoe on there (40.64" in my time range) and added a 15.21" at Spencer and 30.51" at Kanakaleonui. The best cross-check (Waipunalei) is missing data sadly but Spencer seems legit. All on NE side of Mauna Kea.

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

It turns out they are pulling the Univ of Hawaii-Manoa's network which is where that 42" total comes from. www.hawaii.edu/climate-data... My personal opinion is that the gauge probably ran hot, it should be around 25 inches based on neighbors and no sign that it sat under a convective cell

hawaii.edu

Hawai‘i Mesonet Live Data Access – Hawaiʻi Climate Data Portal

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 16/08/2026

Updated big island of Hawaii rainfall totals for Hurricane Lala. I had to add more colors to my colormap. Up to 35 inches (!!!) of rainfall.

Station-plot map of Hawaii's Big Island on a grey shaded-relief background, showing storm rainfall totals from Hurricane Lala between 14 August 00:00 and 16 August 16:36 UTC. Each of 54 rain gauges is a black dot labeled with its total in inches, colored on a radar-style scale running purple and blue for hundredths of an inch, through green, yellow and brown, to red and pink above 16 inches.

Rainfall is extremely uneven and follows the terrain. Two maxima stand out. In the Ka'u district on the south flank of Mauna Loa, Nene Cabin above Pahala recorded the island maximum of 35.60 inches, with 23 to 25 inches at Pahala, Kapapala and Lower Kahuku nearby. On the windward Hilo and Hamakua slopes, Hakalau reached 33.81 inches and Silver Sword 33.47, with Saddle Road Quarry at 28.70 and Mountain View at 25.94. Between them, the Saddle gauges took 20 to 25 inches.

The leeward west side stayed nearly dry: the Kona coast gauges range from 1.11 to 2.39 inches, and the Waikoloa and Waimea area from 3 to 5 inches. Hilo airport itself, on the coast below the orographic maximum, recorded only 7.86 inches, far less than the gauges 10 kilometers upslope. North Kohala is intermediate at 4 to 19 inches.

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 16/08/2026

13,000 ft peak is very efficient at squeezing out moisture 😂

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 16/08/2026

Peak wind gust of 73 mph near the southern tip of the island closest to the center of the hurricane. Looks like there are some strong downsloping winds on the lee (western) side of the island as well.

Map of Hawaii Island (the Big Island) on grey shaded-relief terrain, with 1000-metre elevation contours showing Kohala in the north, Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa in the centre, and Kīlauea to the southeast. A black dot marks each of 33 anemometer sites, labelled with its peak wind gust in miles per hour over the period 00 UTC 15 August to 02:37 UTC 16 August 2026 during Hurricane Lala. Colour runs on a discrete scale from purple and blue below 20 mph, through green near 25 to 30, yellow and orange at tropical-storm force from 39 mph, to brown and red above 58 mph, with the top bin at hurricane force, 74 mph.

The strongest gusts are at exposed sites on opposite ends of the island. Kohala Ranch, on the dry northwestern slope of the Kohala mountains, records the island maximum of 76 mph — the only site to reach hurricane force. South Point, the southernmost tip of the island and of the United States, reaches 73 mph. Puu Mali on the northern flank of Mauna Kea reaches 67 mph, and Waimea 60 mph.

A broad band of 45 to 58 mph gusts covers the saddle between the volcanoes, the Pohakuloa training area, the summit region of Mauna Loa at 3400 metres, and the southeastern coast near Kīlauea. The Hilo airport on the east coast gusts to 56 mph. Most of the island exceeds tropical-storm force.

The weakest readings are along the sheltered Kona coast on the west side, at 10 to 31 mph, and at a few interior sites in the lee of the volcanoes at 25 to 36 mph.

Five values carry an asterisk, marking stations that report no gust at all; for those the maximum sustained wind is shown instead and should be read as a floor on the true gust rather than as the gust itself.

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 16/08/2026

Impressive rainfall totals on the big island of Hawaii from Hurricane Lala. Might not be a landfall but this is the perfect track to dump rain on the eastern slopes. Max of 19 inches and counting on the east side of Mauna Kea.

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

It’s not a small number either, I was shocked when I saw them disembarking and it looked like 200-300 students.

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

Mark is a great guy, I briefly worked with him at WSU!

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Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik @joeboomzag.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

Ha so true. Although a few of the weather startups are doing really cool stuff which I learn about there.

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