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‘Stocks tend to peak before capex rolls over.’ thedailyshot.com/2026/10/01/s...

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‘The gap between index-wide calm and single-stock chaos is nothing new for traders, but lately it’s grown extreme, reaching the widest level since the height of the dot-com crash in 2000.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

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‘US gasoline supplies fell to the lowest level in 12 years, flashing a warning sign for higher pump prices as a global refining crisis pushes up fuel bills.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

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‘The equal-weight S&P 500 is on track for its 7th consecutive weekly decline. The only other time that's happened was in the middle of the 2022 bear market.’ www.dailychartbook.com/p/the-equal-... via @dailychartbook.bsky.social

Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 18h

JPM: “Leverage in margin accounts stands at a very elevated level, suggesting that margin leverage has barely budged from June/July's deleveraging and still presents a significant vulnerability for stocks.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/the-equal-...

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'The 20 top-performing stocks in the S&P 500 have contributed $1.7 trillion to the market capitalization of the S&P 500 since Aug. 31 while the bottom 480 stocks have shed about $1.9 trillion in value.' www.marketwatch.com/story/this-i...

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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 22h

‘South Korea was the world’s worst-performing stock market in the third quarter following a sell-off in July as investors fretted over AI chipmakers’ prospects.’ www.ft.com/content/7fb7...

Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 22h

‘Wall Street had a blockbuster second quarter. Big banks are cautioning that the sequel won’t compare.’ www.wsj.com/finance/bank...

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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 22h

‘Talk of a second euro-zone crisis, this time with an epicenter in Paris, is growing, and it’s easy to see why.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... by @johnauthers.bsky.social

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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 23h

‘If the profit share doesn’t revert to the mean of around 6% sometime soon, we’re bound to see more calls for unionization and lifting the minimum wage, as well as political backlash against corporations in the form of higher corporate taxes and antitrust measures.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 30/09/2026

‘Hyperscalers' YTD net issuance exceeded annual net supply by major developed economies.’ www.dailychartbook.com/p/if-the-10-...

Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 30/09/2026

“For the month of September, equity ETFs are averaging about $3bn per day. That is meaningfully down from the over $7bn that we saw earlier in the summer.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/if-the-10-...

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'We all know at this point that investors have been shunning longer-term US Treasuries (or more precisely, demanding a higher yield to hold them). Now it looks like they’re doing something similar at the short-end.' www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...

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'Four companies in different sectors, all aiming to raise at least $50 million, announced postponements or pulled their IPOs altogether in the past week. That makes seven in the third quarter, up from four in the second quarter and three in the first.' www.cnbc.com/2026/09/29/i...

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‘Independent security researchers said they found bugs in recent months that allowed them to view the internal communications of OpenAI employees, the company’s internal computer code and view the chat logs of ChatGPT users.‘ www.nytimes.com/2026/09/29/t...

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‘Big capex booms are rare, with only two since World War Two comparable to this one: the late 1980s and mid-2000s. They tend to be multi-year events, averaging about three years. This one is shaping up to be the largest.’ www.reuters.com/commentary/r...

‘On Monday, Meta‘s Beignet bonds traded at 91 cents on the dollar, pushing the ⁠yield as high as 7.55%. That's around 230 basis points above Treasuries, a wider spread than the 185 bps at launch, but narrower than the record-wide 255 bps in July.’ www.reuters.com/commentary/r...

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‘Oura is the highest profile firm to date to delay its offering in the US. Nuclear power services firm Holtec and CVC Capital Partners-backed Bamboo Insurance Services both postponed their IPOs in recent days, citing market conditions.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

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‘The rolling 10-year annualized total returns of the S&P 500 minus the return from a Treasury portfolio are almost as high as they’ve been in history.’ www.cnbc.com/2026/09/29/i... by @michaelsantoli.bsky.social

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‘Even Nvidia’s buyback, the largest in history, falls short of the percentage payout of many blue-chip companies. Tech stocks overall had below-average buyback yields and also the lowest dividend yield of any sector.’ www.wsj.com/finance/stoc...

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‘Implied volatility and the premium for bearish puts on TLT have jumped to the highest since late March as investors pay up for protection against — or for wagers on — higher yields.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

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‘Either tech's customers will generate a lot more cash than their analysts expect, or tech's cash flow forecasts are too optimistic, which raises the question of who exactly will be writing all those checks to buy AI services.’ www.apollo.com/wealth/insig...

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‘A crisis always starts in the most vulnerable places and spreads from there. That’s what’s happening now.’ robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-a-glob... by @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social

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‘”While the constant rotation has kept us from seeing a correlation-one selloff, we continue to think the clock is ticking, and we see one sooner than later,” says Krinsky.’ www.marketwatch.com/story/the-hi...

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’The bearish divergence in the high yield credit market that we pointed out not long ago has pretty much fallen off a cliff. Rising interest rates are the obvious culprit causing traders to sell more bonds than they’re buying.‘ vixology.substack.com/p/the-weight

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‘For a moment, it might’ve looked like a story of left-wing politicians finding a new private sector punching bag. But today, it was announced that Florida’s Republican Attorney General James Uthmeier filed a preliminary injunction motion against OpenAI.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...

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‘Over the last few weeks, speculators’ position in Nasdaq futures, based on Commitment of Traders data, has transmuted from net short to the largest net long since 2017 (latest data as of last Tuesday).’ blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...

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‘Q2 equity issuance was the second highest on record relative to GDP, trailing just the first quarter of 2000.‘ blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...

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‘Can the US grow its way out of debt? Don't bet on it. The problem isn't growth. It's the tax structure.‘ www.reuters.com/commentary/r...

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GS: “Based on average annual capex in 2026 and 2027, our equity analysts estimate that the hyperscalers need to generate annual AI revenues of roughly $300 billion in the next few years to break even on their investments.“ www.ft.com/content/f83b...

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‘A surge of corporate bond supply in the US high-yield market is starting to overwhelm debt investors, pushing risk premiums to the highest level in five months, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s head of credit strategy.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

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‘“At the moment you’ve almost got two credit markets, the AI-related issuers and everyone else,” says Andy Chorlton, CIO for fixed income at M&G. But he is concerned that, over time, borrowing costs for all high-grade corporate issuers will be dragged higher.‘ www.ft.com/content/00f9...

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‘Stress is climbing in the private credit market with software names accounting for 36% of debt under pressure. Of the roughly 5,000 companies held by BDCs a year ago, nearly 600 showed signs of some degree of credit pressure by June 2026.’ pitchbook.com/news/article...

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‘S&P 500 breadth has narrowed to its weakest level since the dot-com bubble.‘ thedailyshot.com/2026/09/28/s...

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www.oregonlive.com/opinion/2026...

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‘If every household used AI agents to optimize the return on their cash balances, banks could lose a large share of the cheap deposits they rely on to make loans, which would be a problem for the entire financial system.’ www.apollo.com/wealth/insig...

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‘More than two dozen candidates in competitive House and Senate races have pledged to restrict purchases or ownership by private equity firms, hedge funds and other institutional investors — more than double the level in any previous cycle.‘ www.ft.com/content/7e91...

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‘In August, open-weight models accounted for 56 per cent of all tokens processed through Vercel’s AI Gateway, up from 7 per cent in December.’ www.ft.com/content/d9de...

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“There’s proprietary data that we’re putting into this private model that I wouldn’t put into a frontier model. Any customer data, never, never, never goes into a frontier.“ www.ft.com/content/d9de...

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‘The value of older supertankers has exceeded new-build vessels for the first time on brokers’ records, as shipowners rushing to take advantage of high freight rates in the Gulf contribute to a “bananas” market for large crude carriers.’ www.ft.com/content/a2c2...

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‘There was a wave of options buying seen in AI-related names over the past couple of weeks, a sign of investors reloading for further action. Realized one-month absolute return for S&P 500 members versus the index increased to the 95th percentile.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

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‘Bond market volatility, a measure of uncertainty about the direction of bond yields, is spiking. Historically, that has foreshadowed trouble for corporate debt, as nervous retail investors and others pull money from the market.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

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‘Historical infrastructure booms show that large, capital-intensive expansions become financially consequential when demand falls short, fin. conditions tighten or there is a mismatch between adoption of a new tech and the maturity of the debt issued to finance it.’ www.brookings.edu/wp-content/u...

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‘Moody’s estimates that hyperscalers have roughly $970 billion of lease commitments, of which about $660 billion relates to future leases not yet reflected on the balance sheet.’ www.brookings.edu/wp-content/u...

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‘On current estimates, capex will surpass the five firms‘ combined operating cash flow for the first time in 2026. The figure therefore marks an important transition: internal cash generation remains substantial but is no longer sufficient.’ www.brookings.edu/wp-content/u...

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‘At an average of 3.63% of GDP per year, the projected buildout would be larger than the major US canal, railroad, electrification, highway and telecom investment booms. It would double the electricity consumption of the entire US residential sector.‘ www.brookings.edu/wp-content/u...

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