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Jed Kolko

@jedkolko.bsky.social
3.4K followers 63 following 204 posts

Senior fellow @piie.com. Was Under Secretary Econ Affairs at Commerce Dept and chief economist at Indeed and Trulia. Contact at jedkolko.com

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Jed Kolko @jedkolko.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
The 2025 American Community Survey should have come out today. But it has been delayed because of unusual political encroachment at Census. ACS drives business and policy decisions, especially in local communities, and is the primary input to Census’s immigration estimates.
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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Political meddling at the Census Bureau damages the entire US statistical system via @jedkolko.bsky.social www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
piie.com
Political meddling at the Census Bureau damages the entire US statistical system
This summer marks the worst period for US statistical integrity since President Donald Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics last August. Two different and seemingly uncoordinated eve...
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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 01/09/2026
NEW: @jedkolko.bsky.social explains how two seemingly uncoordinated events at the Census Bureau raise alarms about inappropriate political encroachment on the scientific & technical authority of the agency.
piie.com
Political meddling at the Census Bureau damages the entire US statistical system
This summer marks the worst period for US statistical integrity since President Donald Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics last August. Two different and seemingly uncoordinated eve...
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Jed Kolko @jedkolko.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
New from me: Political meddling at the Census Bureau damages the entire US statistical system www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
piie.com
Political meddling at the Census Bureau damages the entire US statistical system
This summer marks the worst period for US statistical integrity since President Donald Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics last August. Two different and seemingly uncoordinated eve...
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Hansi Lo Wang (he/him) @hansilowang.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
SCOOP: After the Census Bureau issued a highly unusual report tied to a President Trump-aligned think tank, the bureau’s parent agency, the Commerce Department, cut language banning political interference from its scientific integrity policy, @npr.org has learned www.npr.org/2026/08/31/n...
npr.org
Trump officials cut political interference ban after unusual Census Bureau report
After the Census Bureau issued a report tied to a Trump-aligned think tank, the bureau's parent agency cut language banning political interference from its scientific integrity policy, NPR learned.
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Mike Schneider @mikeysid.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
countofcounting.substack.com/p/census-bur...
countofcounting.substack.com
Census Bureau needs to figure out how to land the plane after Commerce Department’s order on privacy methods
WHAT’S AMAZING ABOUT the Commerce Department’s recent decision to restrict the types of privacy protections statistical agencies can use is how little consideration there was to its real-world impacts...
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B Jarosz @datageekb.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
🚨 And there we have it... Thanks to the Disclosure Avoidance Order, ACS 1-year data release is delayed. www.census.gov/newsroom/pre...
census.gov
Census Bureau Releases Schedule for Income, Poverty and Health Insurance Statistics and Updates About the American Community Survey Estimates
The Census Bureau is set to release the 2025 Income, Poverty and Health Insurance statistics from the CPS ASEC.
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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 30/05/2026
#econ_ra @jedkolko.bsky.social @piie.com www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/44...
linkedin.com
Peterson Institute for International Economics hiring Research Analyst — U.S. Economic Statistics in Washington, DC | LinkedIn
Posted 4:22:27 PM. Position OverviewThe Peterson Institute for International Economics, a leading think tank located…See this and similar jobs on LinkedIn.
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Daniel M. Sullivan @dsullivan.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
New Report from my team at the JPMorganChase Institute! Targeting disaster relief: Who needs aid to weather the storm? Lots of people don't have an emergency fund to cover disaster expenses AND many have their incomes disrupted! Who needs aid? Report: www.jpmorganchase.com/institute/al...
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Jed Kolko @jedkolko.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
Miami is the new San Francisco, with the highest out-migration rate of all large metros. jedkolko.substack.com/p/with-less-...
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Jed Kolko @jedkolko.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
With less immigration, urban counties grew more slowly than suburbs, smaller metros, and rural areas in 2025. New Census data out this morning. jedkolko.substack.com/p/with-less-...
jedkolko.substack.com
With Less Immigration, Urban Growth Slowed in 2025
Plus, revisions to 2022-2024 local population estimates were unusually large.
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Jed Kolko @jedkolko.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
Big immigration decline. Agreement among different agencies' estimates. Downward adjustments coming soon to the CPS. And revisions to state populations: New York up, Florida down. Key takeaways from today's new Census population estimates for 2025. jedkolko.substack.com/p/four-takea...
jedkolko.substack.com
Four takeaways from the new Census population estimates
Immigration declined dramatically. Census estimates now align with other government estimates. The 2026 Current Population Survey population base will be adjusted downward.
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Jed Kolko @jedkolko.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
Census releases 2025 population & immigration estimates next Tuesday. Their webinar today described improvements to measuring (1) emigration in 2025 and (2) local immigration in 2022-2024. Also: Census hinted its 2025 estimates and 2026 projections will be "close" to CBOs.
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Wendy Edelberg @wendyedelberg.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
With @stanveuger.bsky.social and @taraelizwatson.bsky.social, we have an update on our near-term immigration analysis under Trump. Here's our range of likely outcomes for breakeven employment. Could be negative **this year**. Full piece: www.brookings.edu/articles/mac...
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Jed Kolko @jedkolko.bsky.social · 04/01/2026
Is anyone from the current Administration speaking at the #ASSA2026 conference?
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Jed Kolko @jedkolko.bsky.social · 02/01/2026
Come for “mindless nitpicking” about immigration, tomorrow at 8 am at #ASSA2026 eppro01.ativ.me/appinfo.php?...
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Jed Kolko @jedkolko.bsky.social · 19/12/2025
Joyce Meyer was confirmed as the Commerce Dept's Under Secretary for Economic Affairs. The position oversees the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Administration has proposed moving the Bureau of Labor Statistics into Commerce under this position, too.
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Jed Kolko @jedkolko.bsky.social · 21/11/2025
Republicans are more upbeat about the economy than Democrats are, but the industries Republicans are more likely to work in are losing jobs.
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Erica Groshen @ericagroshen.bsky.social · 12/11/2025
Wondering when you'll get your #BLS data?? The Friends of BLS have posted an FAQ about the impact of the shutdown on #BLSdata: www.friendsofbls.org/updates/2025... #econsky @aaronsojourner.org @betseystevenson.bsky.social @justinwolfers.bsky.social @jasonfurman.bsky.social @jedkolko.bsky.social
friendsofbls.org
2025 Government Shutdown FAQs on BLS Data — The Friends of the Bureau of Labor Statistics
The Friends of BLS  The 2025 Government Shutdown and BLS Data: Questions & Answers How will the government shutdown, which may be over by the time you read this, affect BLS data? F...
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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 07/11/2025
"Trade wars screw up other things." Senator Tim Kaine explained how, separately from the economy, Trump's trade war is complicating US relationships with allies in other spheres, like defense.
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Jed Kolko @jedkolko.bsky.social · 07/11/2025
Some thoughts in lieu of this morning’s jobs report. open.substack.com/pub/jedkolko...
open.substack.com
Requiem for a Jobs Report
Today marks the second missing jobs report. Damage is piling up
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Jed Kolko @jedkolko.bsky.social · 03/11/2025
Never a good sign when the best available data about the labor market is UI claims. (Though glad to have them.) Last time this happened: the three weeks from mid March to early April 2020, from when the pandemic shut everything down to the March jobs report publication.
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Jed Kolko @jedkolko.bsky.social · 30/10/2025
Thanks to the shutdown, we didn't get the first estimate of Q3 GDP today. And private-sector data offer no good substitute for official GDP. The shutdown offers lots of lessons about what private sector data can and can't do. New at @piie.com : www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
piie.com
What the government shutdown teaches us about private sector data
The government shutdown provides an unexpected test case for an increasingly urgent question: What would happen if official economic statistics became less useful, whether through declining resources,...
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Jed Kolko @jedkolko.bsky.social · 29/10/2025
Is the payroll data that ADP just announced they're publishing weekly the same or different from what ADP was sharing with the @federalreserve.gov until recently? (And, if different, how?)
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Adam Posen @adamposen.bsky.social · 09/10/2025
Global growth holds up despite policy headwinds and rising risks - New blog by Karen Dynan Latest global economic propsects from @piie.com www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
piie.com
Global growth holds up despite policy headwinds and rising risks
The global economy is growing more strongly than expected this year, despite rising trade tensions and high uncertainty around US economic policy. Optimism about artificial intelligence (AI), particul...
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Jed Kolko @jedkolko.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
EJ Antoni nomination to lead BLS is withdrawn. www.cnn.com/2025/09/30/p...
cnn.com
White House withdraws Trump’s controversial nominee to lead BLS after ousting predecessor over jobs data | CNN Politics
The White House has sent paperwork to the Senate to withdraw the nomination of E.J. Antoni as head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, three sources told CNN.
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Erica Groshen @ericagroshen.bsky.social · 24/09/2025
12 Senators want to know the Administration's plans for federal #statistics by 10/6. “The integrity of America’s #economicdata is fundamental to our economic prosperity and global leadership – it is not a partisan issue...” www.banking.senate.gov/imo/media/do... #econsky
banking.senate.gov
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Julia Gelatt @juliagelatt.bsky.social · 23/09/2025
DHS has just claimed that 1.6 million unauthorized immigrant "self deported" this year. This number seems to come from a Center for Immigration Studies estimate that relies on the Current Population Survey. As @jedkolko.bsky.social writes, such a large decline doesn't line up with other data
piie.com
That reported multi-million decline in US immigrants just doesn’t add up
The recent Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data showing that there were 2.2 million fewer immigrants in the US in July 2025 than in January is almost certainly wrong.
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Nicolas Veron @veron.bsky.social · 22/09/2025
Please consider joining live tomorrow! My guest Oleksandra Azarkhina is among the best experts for a forward-looking discussion of Ukraine's prospects as a (potential) future member of the European Union.
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Jed Kolko @jedkolko.bsky.social · 22/09/2025
Update: The Consumer Expenditure Survey is being delayed ~5 weeks, with no impact on the CPI weights, and for good technical reasons.
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Jed Kolko @jedkolko.bsky.social · 20/09/2025
The BLS is NOT postponing the monthly inflation report, the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Rather, the delay is for the annual Consumer Expenditure Survey (CEX). CEX provides the "weights" for the CPI and other inflation measures.
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Erica Groshen @ericagroshen.bsky.social · 20/09/2025
There are no politicals at BLS now. No BLSers have leaked about pressure on the CEX or other work at BLS. And this release is likely too low-profile to warrant meddling. So, I don’t think that the issue is pressure. The shortage of funding and staffing —also nefarious—is a more likely cause.
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Erica Groshen @ericagroshen.bsky.social · 19/09/2025
#BLS has delayed the 2024 Consumer Expenditures Survey annual release. This is likely due to the severe understaffing in the agency. Staff losses and hiring freeze are taking their toll. www.bls.gov/cex/notices/... #econsky
bls.gov
Consumer Expenditures 2024 Data Release to be Rescheduled
Consumer Expenditures 2024 Data Release to be Rescheduled (9/19/2025)
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Jed Kolko @jedkolko.bsky.social · 18/09/2025
Why do businesses need credible official economic data? Come find out! 2:30 today, @brookings.edu -- in-person and virtual www.brookings.edu/events/the-i...
brookings.edu
The importance of credible government economic data to business | Brookings
On September 18, Brookings will host former BLS commissioners, government officials, private-sector leaders, and economists to discuss data integrity.
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David Wessel @davidmwessel.bsky.social · 18/09/2025
Steve Moore (!): Trump aims to bolster U.S. manufacturing—in part through steel and aluminum tariffs. But ...Trump’s order to raise the tax on imported aluminum to 50% will almost certainly cost far more manufacturing jobs than it will save. www.wsj.com/opinion/trum...
wsj.com
Opinion | Trump’s Tariffs on Aluminum Kill U.S. Factory Jobs
They’re costly for companies that use the metal to make things—including recyclers.
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Jed Kolko @jedkolko.bsky.social · 17/09/2025
The Fed expects slower GDP growth than the White House does -- especially 2026 onward. One Fed participant projects GDP growth of 2.6-2.7% in 2026, 2027, and 2028, but none projects GDP growth as high as the White House does.
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Hansi Lo Wang (he/him) @hansilowang.bsky.social · 17/09/2025
NEW: At her confirmation hearing, Joyce Meyer, President Trump’s nominee for the next under secretary of commerce for economic affairs to oversee the Census Bureau, avoided directly answering whether she agrees the president is unable to conduct a new census before 2030 unless Congress passes a law
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Jed Kolko @jedkolko.bsky.social · 17/09/2025
Fed nerds: would Miran have a projection in the SEP today, or would timing be too tight for his projection to be prepared and included?
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Jed Kolko @jedkolko.bsky.social · 17/09/2025
The person who could reshape US economic statistics -- including oversight of the BLS -- has their Senate confirmation hearing at 10 am today.
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Jed Kolko @jedkolko.bsky.social · 17/09/2025
Today: hearing for Joyce Meyer, nominee for Under Secretary of Commerce for Economic Affairs. Role oversees Census and BEA, and potentially BLS if it moves from Labor to Commerce. www.commerce.senate.gov/2025/9/senat...
commerce.senate.gov
Senate Commerce Announces Hearing for NTSB, OSTP, and Commerce Nominees
WASHINGTON, D.C. – U.S. Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Chairman of the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, will convene a nominations hearing for nominees of the National Transport...
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Jed Kolko @jedkolko.bsky.social · 12/09/2025
Today, Congressional Budget Office lowered its GDP growth projection for 2025 and raised it for 2026. Revision reflects 2025 reconciliation act, tariffs, and lower immigration. CBO's projections still well below White House assumptions, esp for 2026-2028.
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Jed Kolko @jedkolko.bsky.social · 12/09/2025
Inbox: American Community Survey (ACS) Data Users Group Online Community is shutting down. Has 7000 members; operating since 2013. Big loss to users of the ACS, the key source of economic, societal, and demographic information about local communities.
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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 12/09/2025
Job growth in industries more reliant on unauthorized immigrants has been flat this year. These industries include construction, hotels, restaurants, home health care, & several other industries in manufacturing, technology, & services. #PIIECharts
Slowing immigration has halted job growth in some industries
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Hansi Lo Wang (he/him) @hansilowang.bsky.social · 11/09/2025
NEW: The confirmation hearing for Joyce Meyer, President Trump’s nominee for the next under secretary of commerce for economic affairs to oversee the Census Bureau, is set to take place Sept. 17 before the Senate Commerce Committee
commerce.senate.gov
Senate Commerce Announces Hearing for NTSB, OSTP, and Commerce Nominees
WASHINGTON, D.C. – U.S. Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Chairman of the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, will convene a nominations hearing for nominees of the National Transport...
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Jed Kolko @jedkolko.bsky.social · 11/09/2025
New immigration estimates in the past day: CBO revised its 2025 estimate down from 2.0m to 408k. Census ACS reported 2024 immigration to US was new high at 1.8m; this will drive their 2025 estimate. Brace for more confusion about the rate of immigration! jedkolko.substack.com/p/new-immigr...
jedkolko.substack.com
New Immigration Estimates Are Not the Last Word
Prepare for another year of uncertainty and confusion over the rate of net US immigration.
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Jed Kolko @jedkolko.bsky.social · 09/09/2025
Another regular reminder: Big policy shocks to the economy will make revisions bigger. Models based on past trends that are used to fill in late or missing data will not reflect recent policy shocks.
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Jed Kolko @jedkolko.bsky.social · 09/09/2025
The preliminary benchmark revision of -911k is a bit steeper than expectations, but close. The downward revision was mostly already known from the key publicly available source, and consistent with data from related sources.
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Jed Kolko @jedkolko.bsky.social · 09/09/2025
Today's preliminary benchmark revision to the jobs report is: transparent well-telegraphed in advance based on publicly available data necessary for achieving both speed and accuracy in economic data
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Jed Kolko @jedkolko.bsky.social · 08/09/2025
This week: not just CPI! Tues: Preliminary benchmark revision to nonfarm payrolls Annual Census income, poverty, & health insurance report (based on 2025 CPS ASEC) Wed: Update to CBO demographics outlook Thurs: 2024 American Community Survey
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