iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

James Doss-Gollin @jdossgollin.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

that feeling when you turn in an A rate peer review knowing you’re going to see that paper published _sans comment_ in another journal soon regardless

static.klipy.com

So It Was All For Nothing Kyle

ALT: So It Was All For Nothing Kyle

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Evan @evan7257.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

The @houstonchronicle.com editorial board follows up with a family we covered as part of the Pulitzer Prize winning series on dangerous railroad crossings: First, he lost his brother. Now ICE wants to take his dad. How much hardship is enough? www.houstonchronicle.com/opinion/edit...

houstonchronicle.com

First he lost his brother. Now ICE wants his dad. How much hardship is enough?

"Me, mamá and papá," that's been Marco's world since his brother Sergio was killed. Now, his father may be the latest casualty in the country's mass deportation campaign, writes the editorial...

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James Doss-Gollin @jdossgollin.bsky.social · 12/07/2026

They promised us that VAR would be used to fix blatant mistakes (hand of God, ball over the line, clear dives earning penalties, etc). Now, we stop every game for minutes at a time to "fix" an arbitrary set of minor mistakes. All goal celebrations are now provisional. For this???

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James Doss-Gollin @jdossgollin.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

Lots of implications for IDF curves / precip frequency methods (paper coming very soon!!) but above all it's important to communicate to end users that neither a <<100 year historical record nor downscaled GCMs does a good job constraining the upper tail of precip hazard!

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David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · 06/07/2026

Good news: We can tell you how much the globe will warm if we continue to burn fossil fuels and emit CO₂ at an alarming rate. Bad news: We’re terrible at telling you how bad the impacts will be, and they’re consistently worse than we predicted.

bloomberg.com

Extreme Heat Stuns Even Climate Scientists Who Saw It Coming

Record-breaking heat waves are even stunning scientists monitoring the acceleration of climate change.

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James Doss-Gollin @jdossgollin.bsky.social · 13/06/2026

Adelante #Albirroja!!! Por mas que este mundial es y ha sido una verguenza.... ñamee korasô mbarete vamos muchachos

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Jordan @jordanpfot.bsky.social · 04/05/2026

What the hell www.newyorker.com/culture/prog...

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Dan Visioni @danvisioni.bsky.social · 14/05/2026

And to me this applies, again, more to the low end of the spectrum than to the high one. Ppl will read “very low” scenarios with lots of CDR as implications of need for it directly and plausibility of those scales (“the IPCC says we need this much CDR”) rather than as “we wanted such a scenario”…

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Richard Waite @waiterich.bsky.social · 12/03/2026

As a point of comparison, the US spent $21 billion in FY 2022 to feed billions of breakfasts and lunches to kids in schools across our whole country for an entire year under the universal school meals program that was later discontinued.

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James Doss-Gollin @jdossgollin.bsky.social · 26/02/2026

Kidnapping visa-holding graduate students (from buildings many friends lived in!) for what? To ensure America becomes a less free country? To discourage the smartest people in the world from dreaming of coming here? To make our universities less innovative?

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Nahel Belgherze @wxnb.bsky.social · 09/02/2026

Grazalema, Spain, received over 2,000 mm (78 inches) of rain in just the last 20 days. Over a year’s worth of rain — and it’s only early February. This is hydrologically absurd.

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Vivek Srikrishnan @vsrikrish.bsky.social · 19/01/2026

Featuring a quote from @jdossgollin.bsky.social! As Adam notes, the core problem is these scores cannot be validated (in the strictest sense) for future use, because there are too many assumptions about future changes. We need to be transparent about these and look across a range of projections.

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James Doss-Gollin @jdossgollin.bsky.social · 19/01/2026

Tools that help savvy companies who hire scientists like @kellyhereid.bsky.social use, in conjunction with lots of other information, to answer specific questions are not intrinsically useful for ordinary people making the biggest financial decision of their lives

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James Doss-Gollin @jdossgollin.bsky.social · 15/01/2026

I am calling for a complete and total shutdown of daycare germs until somebody can figure out what the hell is going on (while I still have some backup care days left for 2026)

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Adam Pollack @crispapoll.bsky.social · 14/01/2026

Climate risk science's greatest project successes have come in part due to transparency and reusability. We show that at the paper-level, there is plenty of room for growth. We talk about why this matters, what researchers can do, and how the greatest progress requires institutional support

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James Doss-Gollin @jdossgollin.bsky.social · 14/01/2026

This paper began as a manifesto but (largely thank to @crispapoll.bsky.social's hard work) evolved into an empirically grounded, thoughtful, and nuanced analysis of why transparency is *especially* critical for #climate #climaterisk research and how current standards fall short

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James Doss-Gollin @jdossgollin.bsky.social · 13/01/2026

Sorry editors -- I got about a billion invitations to review this week and had to decline most of them. Prioritizing (1) society journals, (2) open access journals, and (3) journals I have recently submitted to, down-weighted if I have more recently reviewed there.

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James Doss-Gollin @jdossgollin.bsky.social · 13/01/2026

All emails should cost $0.01. An email to all 20,000 people on campus should cost 200 bucks -- enough that you have to accept accountability and justify your choice, not so much that important stuff is blocked

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Vivek Srikrishnan @vsrikrish.bsky.social · 01/12/2025

Kelly's point is why I think the merits of Zillow removing climate risk scores (www.nytimes.com/2025/11/30/c...) is fairly nuanced. To make it clear: Zillow clearly did not do this for the right reasons, and the realty and developer lobbies have long been opponents of better climate information.

nytimes.com

Zillow Removes Climate Risk Scores From Home Listings

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James Doss-Gollin @jdossgollin.bsky.social · 26/11/2025

My favorite thing about Thanksgiving week is that all the companies who’s crap I need to unsubscribe from hopefully send me multiple reminders

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Adam Pollack @crispapoll.bsky.social · 13/11/2025

Our free and open source software for estimating property level flood risk under uncertainty now has a peer reviewed software paper! We would love your thoughts for improvement and contributions! github.com/abpoll/unsafe @jdossgollin.bsky.social @vsrikrish.bsky.social

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Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt @betanalpha.bsky.social · 27/10/2025

On Wed, Dec 10 I am offering a comprehensive introduction to Bayesian regression modeling, with exercises in both RStan and PyStan, at a steep discount in an effort to raise funds for World Central Kitchen and United Farm Workers. For registration details see betanalpha.github.io/courses/.

betanalpha.github.io

Courses

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James Doss-Gollin @jdossgollin.bsky.social · 27/10/2025

There seems to be very little coverage, but Hurricane Melissa is about to do terrible damage to millions of people. gdacs.org/report.aspx?...

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James Doss-Gollin @jdossgollin.bsky.social · 24/10/2025

Climate risk models require DEEP expertise to use well. It is easier every day to download some black-box risk estimate for your house/community/portfolio. However, the common mindset of "some data is better than no data" can lead to trouble!

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James Doss-Gollin @jdossgollin.bsky.social · 18/10/2025

Thanks to everyone who is out (on behalf of all of us knocked out by daycare germs) to demand and defend accountability, transparency, democracy, and the very concept of morality.

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James Doss-Gollin @jdossgollin.bsky.social · 29/09/2025

I literally only use this app to grumble

Man taking a stand in a town hall meeting saying "resiliency is not a real word"

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James Doss-Gollin @jdossgollin.bsky.social · 19/09/2025

I knew having kids would change my life, but I wasn’t ready for Spotify to pack my recommendations with 98% white noise and nature sounds

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IOPP Environment and Energy @iopp-environment.bsky.social · 11/09/2025

📊New research published in #ERCL - in the 'Focus on #ClimateChange Informed Catastrophe Modeling to Support #ClimateRisk Management' 🌧️Bayesian spatiotemporal nonstationary model quantifies robust increases in daily extreme rainfall across the Western Gulf Coast: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...

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James Doss-Gollin @jdossgollin.bsky.social · 09/09/2025

Broke: I want AI to do my laundry and dishes so that I can do art and writing Woke: I want AI to fill out when2meet / doodle / calendly polls so that I can complain about bad papers on social media

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James Doss-Gollin @jdossgollin.bsky.social · 08/09/2025

Controversial take: every statistical analysis you do doesn’t need to be an R package. Packages should be infrastructure and set a very high bar of software engineering for them. To disseminate your analysis, just make some well documented templates and tutorials

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Kevin J. Kircher @kevinjkircher.com · 01/08/2025

What a clear, concise summary of the state and potential of renewable energy technologies. I particularly like how @rebeccasolnit.bsky.social includes the fact that nearly two-thirds of primary energy gets wasted today. Burning fossil fuels is a very inefficient way to provide useful services.

Screenshot of a paragraph about fossil fuels and wasted energy:

"As the Rocky Mountain Institute explains it: “Today, most energy is wasted along the way. Out of the 606 EJ [exajoules] of primary energy that entered the global energy system in 2019, some 33% (196 EJ) was lost on the supply side due to energy production and transportation losses before it ever reached a consumer. Another 30% (183 EJ) was lost on the demand side turning final energy into useful energy. That means that of the 606 EJ we put into our energy system per annum, only 227 EJ ended up providing useful energy, like heating a home or moving a truck. That is only 37% efficient overall.” That’s the old system, and it’s dirty, toxic to human health and the environment – and our politics – as well as the main driver of climate chaos. And wasteful."

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James Doss-Gollin @jdossgollin.bsky.social · 29/07/2025

How exciting is research according to...

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James Doss-Gollin @jdossgollin.bsky.social · 25/07/2025

Grumpy take: you cannot just write in your methods section "we used X software", you should cite and note the software but you still need to explain what the software is doing and why it's a good choice

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James Doss-Gollin @jdossgollin.bsky.social · 23/07/2025

Talk about a profoundly shredded moral fabric

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Aaron Weiss (no relation) @aweiss.bsky.social · 13/07/2025

This country won't get serious about climate change until we're honest about flood and fire risk and insurance to match. Imagine if Camp Mystic had been required to carry liability insurance in the event that its campers were flood victims. Those cabins would have been moved years ago.

Federal regulators repeatedly granted appeals to remove Camp Mystic’s buildings from their 100-year flood map, loosening oversight as the camp operated and expanded in a dangerous flood plain in the years before rushing waters swept away children and counselors, a review by The Associated Press found.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency included the prestigious girls’ summer camp in a “Special Flood Hazard Area” in its National Flood Insurance map for Kerr County in 2011, which means it was required to have flood insurance and faced tighter regulation on any future construction projects.

FEMA exempted buildings at old and new sites

In response to an appeal, FEMA in 2013 amended the county’s flood map to remove 15 of the camp’s buildings from the hazard area. Records show that those buildings were part of the 99-year-old Camp Mystic Guadalupe, which was devastated by last week’s flood.

After further appeals, FEMA removed 15 more Camp Mystic structures in 2019 and 2020 from the designation. Those buildings were located on nearby Camp Mystic Cypress Lake, a sister site that opened to campers in 2020 as part of a major expansion and suffered less damage in the flood.

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James Doss-Gollin @jdossgollin.bsky.social · 10/07/2025

I understand everyone wants to cover the tragedy, but I would MUCH PREFER to be part of a public discussion of flood warning systems and safety BEFORE the next horrific disaster happens than AFTER. As long we remain uncomfortable with proactive safety measures, people will keep dying.

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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 05/07/2025

But this does illustrate a few tragic and uncomfortable truths. The first is that even quite good weather forecasts do not automatically translate into life-saving predictions--there's a lot of other work that has to take place to contextualize the forecast and ensure it gets to right people.

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James Doss-Gollin @jdossgollin.bsky.social · 08/07/2025

#Flood modelers: lots of chatter RE soil profiles in "flash flood alley". Do we really think floods would have been meaningfully different if you dropped that much rain on those hills, but they had more/deeper topsoils? Of course the effect is not zero, but not convinced it's big.

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Matt Lanza @mattlanza.bsky.social · 06/07/2025

Based on some of the reactions and comments I am absorbing by average people and elected officials, I think there needs to be a serious explanation and lesson on what the limits of predictability are for floods like the one in Texas.

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Adam Pollack @crispapoll.bsky.social · 05/07/2025

And don’t remove observational capacities and cut funding to weather forecasting agencies and then blame them for “faulty” forecasts!

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James Doss-Gollin @jdossgollin.bsky.social · 05/07/2025

Horrific things are happening along the Guadalupe River right now. Absolutely devastating for the families of everyone missing. I'm skeptical that we're going to build our way out of experiencing major flooding with 15+" rain on hilly terrain. Instead, we need...

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Daniel Radosh @radosh.bsky.social · 26/06/2025

I feel like I'm losing my mind. Here is the transcript of what Zohran Mamdani actually said about the phrase "globalize the intifada." This is his "refusal to disavow it." This is what has people terrified. Just fucking read it. Source: podscripts.co/podcasts/the...

Q: So I wonder what you think about that, about the phrase “globalize the intifada” and what we've seen as some anti-semitism coming from the left-wing protesters.

A: The first thing as you were saying is anti-semitism is a real issue in our city and it's one that can be captured in statistics, the ones that you're citing. It's also one that you will feel in conversations you have with Jewish New Yorkers across the city. And I remember one conversation I had with a friend of mine after the horrific war crime of October 7th. He was telling me that he went for Shabbat services at his temple and he was facing forward when he heard the door open. And he turned back with a chill going up his spine because he didn't know who was coming in. And that's more than a year ago.

And then just a few weeks ago, I had a conversation with a Jewish man in Williamsburg who told me that the same door he would keep unlocked for decades is one that he now locks out of a fear of what could happen in his own neighborhood. And I think that this is something that has to be the focus of the next mayoral administration, is not just talking about it, but tackling it. And these are the conversations that have informed our commitment around increasing funding for anti-hate crime programming by 800% in our Department of Community Safety.

To the question of language that's being used. I am someone who I would say am less comfortable with the idea of banning the use of certain words and that I think it is more evocative of a Trump style approach to how to lead a country. And-

Q: Does that just make you uncomfortable? Like the phrase globalizing intifada. And like the phrase from the river to the sea, does that make you uncomfortable? Or do you think-

A: Okay, those are different. Those are super different.

Q: They're not really.

A: Those are like different genres.

Q: I'm sorry, I'm asking so wrong. Then they're not really different to me. And to some people they are not different.

A: I know people for whom those things mean very different things. And to me, ultimately, what I hear in so many is a desperate desire for equality and equal rights in standing up for Palestinian human rights. And I think what's difficult also is that the very word has been used by the Holocaust Museum when translating the Warsaw ghetto uprising into Arabic because it's a word that means struggle. And as a Muslim man who grew up post-911, I'm all too familiar in the way in which Arabic words can be twisted, can be distorted, can be used to justify any kind of meaning. And I think that's where it leaves me with a sense that what we need to do is focus on keeping Jewish New Yorkers safe. And the question of the permissibility of language is something that I haven't ventured.

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Paul Voosen @voosen.me · 05/06/2025

My latest feature is out: As the world has warmed, the regional flaws of climate models have grown apparent. Meanwhile, methods to localize the results of models have proliferated. It all leads to lots of uncertainty -- within a very certain global trend. And cities need answers now.

science.org

Local predictions of climate change are hazy. But cities need answers fast

Scientists are figuring out where “downscaled” climate models struggle—and how they can be improved

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Antonio Vecoli (@tonyveco on X) @tonyveco.bsky.social · 24/05/2025

🔴⚠️⛈🇦🇺Unprecedented rains, almost 500mm in three days for some towns, have hit #NewSouthWales with floods that involved 50000 people. #Australia declared the natural disaster for the state.⬇️#Sentinel1 animation of the flooded area covering 160km2.

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