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Jared Bernstein

@jaredb-econ.bsky.social
4.1K followers 300 following 199 posts
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Surprising finding, amiright? This is Morning Consult econ sentiment by social media usage, from GS: "on the less intuitive side, we find that sentiment is higher among social media users." They note the pattern is robust after controlling for age effects.
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Pls list your reasons for the increase in order of importance. Thank you for your attention…etc…
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Fair points. Not nothing but less than meets eye. Do you think current spreads will prevent refiners from cutting runs if exports are banned? Or will they protect current spreads? Also, I worry US northeast faces >prices, even w Jones waiver. You?
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
I think r* has probably gone up, at least over the medium term. econjared.substack.com/p/r
econjared.substack.com
r*!
Just because you can’t see it doesn’t mean we can’t talk about it!
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
These two things are closely connected, right? 1) Spiking gas price (diesel highest on record; "cars run on gas; economies run on diesel") and this "don't look there; look here!" breaking news (NYT):
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
But given the actual fiscal outlook, dumping this junk off the back of a truck on Friday night is just the latest eg that they're not even phoning in fiscal policy anymore.
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
I get it. This complaint is a bit like the old line: "The food here's terrible! And the portions are so small!" Their numbers/fcast would have surely been unreliable. We know Bessent's big deficit reduction plan is to "grow our way out of it!" Which is pure hand waving.
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
The White House Budget Office (kinda) released the Mid-Session Review today. It's the barest bones MSR ever, w almost no budget numbers, no deficit accounting (revs - spending) and, for the 1st time in history, I believe, no economic forecast. www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
I woke up, wrote a table-setter for the big Warsh speech, including the table below and hopes for some clarifications from the new chair. Then updated after the speech, which had +'s and -'s. Check it out: econjared.substack.com/p/before-and...
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Fed officials have been leaning toward a rate hike, and basically challenging the data to talk them off of the ledge. This AMs PCE report doesn’t say “jump” but neither does it say “come inside and let’s talk this out.”
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
Those of us tracking the reliability of gov't statistics have not heretofore seen anything like this. It's a remarkable and deeply worrisome encroachment: econjared.substack.com/p/the-govern...
econjared.substack.com
The Government Report That Made Me Stop Trusting Our Statistical Agencies
I’ve waved people off this degree of mistrust. I no longer can do so.
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
It's good to see more construction jobs, but I suspect I speak for many: we'd like to see more homes, less data centers! (data are basically residential--down--and nonresidential--up--subcontractors)
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Tru dat!: siepr.stanford.edu/publications...
siepr.stanford.edu
The way we were: Price-level shocks and consumers’ memories
Other
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Greg Ip (note exactly a commie) in a recent column on this labor share decline: “You can be a red-blooded capitalist and still worry about the political stability of an economy in which ever more output flows toward shareholders instead of employees.” www.wsj.com/finance/stoc...
wsj.com
The Record Divide Between Corporate Profits and Worker Pay
Labor’s share of economic output just hit an all-time low, while the profit share neared a record. It helps explain why consumers feel so glum.
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Prod growth up, real comp down = falling labor share. Interested in your take on this decelerating trend?
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
From this AMs productivity data, BLS labor share lowest on record & tanking. Measurement issues bias this down some, but direction of travel is clear. And this is at low unemp. It's a sign of a serious distributional problem and further evidence of (good) macro/(bad) micro split.
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
One thing that struck me here was the implied negative view of at-will employment. Which is virtually the employment situation of the 160 mill workers in the US labor market!
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
Why didn’t we think of that??
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 16/05/2026
...families, not just working families.
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 16/05/2026
Just to be clear, you're puzzled by real hrly wg up 15%, 2015-19, but real incomes up ~twice that much, right? I'd say a) more hours worked by HHs, as unemp fell sharply in those years. But also, incomes include non-wage sources, so they'll often fail to match wage growth. Also, inc for all...
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
👊
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 27/04/2026
Here’s my piece on this, worth it just for the picture. No question, we’d get better monetary policy should Powell stay on board. But there are other considerations open.substack.com/pub/econjare...
open.substack.com
Should he stay or should he go?
"If I go, there will be trouble. And if I stay, it will be double."
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 27/04/2026
Fair point. Bad analogy. Better: two head chefs in same kitchen??
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 15/03/2026
Up-to-date info on pre-war econ baseline and post-war econ impacts. Yes, oil and gas, but not just them (that's the 30-year mortgage rate below). econjared.substack.com/p/weekly-wra...
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Reposted by Jared Bernstein
David Madland @davidmadland.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
The affordability debate is overlooking a key factor: higher wages. Union bargaining is the way to get there, @jaredb-econ.bsky.social and I argue for @theprogressivemag.bsky.social: tinyurl.com/mr2n8pas
tinyurl.com
How Union Bargaining Can Buoy Affordability
A true affordability agenda should raise wages. Unions and collective bargaining can help achieve that.
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
This is such important work, and practically in real time, which is very important. Also, shows economists can apply our skills to aid the resistance!
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
Aside from the annoying moderator, I thought this price control debate was 1-2 std devs above the mean for this sort of thing. Jam packed with substance, evidence, logic, tradeoffs, clarity, and respect. And on an interesting, timely topic. www.youtube.com/watch?v=vrpm...
youtube.com
The Affordability Conundrum: A Debate on How To Deliver Immediate Relief While Expanding Supply
YouTube video by Center For American Progress
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 31/01/2026
Definitely K-shaped forces in play but you really have to understand the shock caused by the increase in the price level. See sentiment model herein and note how price-level-shock variable explains the large residual. open.substack.com/pub/econjare...
open.substack.com
Is the Affordability Crisis a Crisis?
I think so. Here's why and what we can realistically do about it.
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
Affordability policy is often accused of aiming to lower the overall price level. Not so! The agenda is grounded on 2 criteria: a) short list of living-standard essential goods/services, wherein b) the market that produces them is flawed. www.nytimes.com/2026/01/05/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | Yes, Politicians Should Run on Affordability
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 29/12/2025
Explaining the "big, yellow gap" between how folks feel about the economy these days (bad) and overall growth (good). As usual, we don't have all the data we need to explain the gap, but I draw on a lot of what we do have. econjared.substack.com/p/is-this-ec...
econjared.substack.com
Is This Economy Great or Awful?
A Q & A on the factors behind the "big, yellow gap."
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 12/12/2025
Gemini just told me this: "While many people in the finance industry are increasingly interested in strength training, there are no well-known, high-profile economists famous specifically for their fitness or a muscular physique." Sounds right but I'd still like a fact check.
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
Recall this being a useful dive into these issues: www.brookings.edu/articles/hig....
brookings.edu
Higher Education Spending: The Role of Medicaid and the Business Cycle | Brookings
Brookings Policy Brief #124 by Thomas J. Kane and Peter R. Orszag. (September 2003)
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
Looking forward to reading! Based on abstract, what do you think of a countercyclical program that ramps up in downturns to help newly unemp afford college (which for comm col means life costs more than tuition)? Useful nudge at strategic time??
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
...with high inflation, of course. It's that they're not assuaged by low inflation, which just means the prices they're unhappy with are still climbing, only more slowly.
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
I'm seeing this from the excellent @gelliottmorris.com: "I explain how “affordability” has become the new “inflation”" I've learned over many years now that affordability is much more a price level issue than a price change issue (tho normal people conflate the 2). It's not that people are fine...
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 01/12/2025
Healthcare affordability policies reside at the intersection of good politics (for Ds) and good policy (for all...well, except rent-seekers). Joint w @nealemahoney.bsky.social econjared.substack.com/p/healthcare...
econjared.substack.com
Healthcare Affordability: How Democrats Can Press Their Advantage On This Key Issue
Here's a set of affordability ideas that reside at the intersection of good politics and good policy.
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 30/11/2025
Good point. I noted downside to markets. I don’t like it either. But given heightened uncertainty and unusual disruption to dataflow still think could be worth it.
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 30/11/2025
IKR!
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 30/11/2025
Should they cut or should they hold? Or should they push the damn meeting back a bit to have a few more drops of precious data?! Some noodling on the Fed's Dec meeting: econjared.substack.com/p/should-the...
econjared.substack.com
Should They Cut or Should They Hold?
"If they cut there will be trouble. If they hold it will be double." So, what the Fed should really do is push the meeting back a few days.
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 25/11/2025
So, professor, if you were on the FOMC (which would be awesomely great), would you cut or hold at the Dec meeting? (Apologies if you say so in that hit which I didn't listen to...my b.)
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 25/11/2025
You know how many were saying, even as the u-rate crept up of late, "of course, X% is still historically low unemployment." I think at 4.4%, that's no longer quite right, but interested in others'--some name-checked here--takes. econjared.substack.com/p/tuesdays-m...
econjared.substack.com
Tuesday's Mashed Potatoes
Getting ready for T-giving, here's a mash up: a few numbers of interest, and Greg Ip says affordability can't be solved and is therefore a loser for incumbents.
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 23/11/2025
My mind has been blown! I grew up listening to the highly nuanced music of the Modern Jazz Quartet featuring Connie Kay on drums. I just learned that Connie Kay played on Joe Turner’s shake rattle and roll w its huge crazy backbeat! How did I not know that?! (Tho there’s some disagreement.)
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
The affordability crisis focuses on prices. That makes sense for reasons I articulate in this piece, but for economists, it's not just p (prices) that matter. It's y/p (real incomes). Just want to be careful not to lose sight of that part of the equation! econjared.substack.com/p/the-afford...
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 13/11/2025
A calculation somebody needs to do: take u-rate, payroll change, infl rate and average month t-1 and t+1. Report forecast error re t. @guyberger.bsky.social @ernietedeschi.bsky.social @aaronsojourner.org Thank u 4 your attention to this matter.
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 10/11/2025
Sorry, progressives & health care policy wonks. But we're going to have to re-remind everyone why Health Savings Accts are a tax shelter for the wealthy, not health insurance. Note distribution of premium tax credits vs. HSA contributions. www.cbpp.org/blog/five-re...
cbpp.org
Five Reasons Lawmakers Should Reject Expansions of Health Savings Accounts
Expanding health savings accounts (HSAs) is a key element of Republicans’ health care policy agenda. Ostensibly, HSAs allow people enrolled in certain health insurance policies to set aside money...
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 05/11/2025
Seems strong to me! Gorsuch today, warning about this very point: “a one-way ratchet toward the gradual but continual accretion of power in the executive branch and away from the people’s elected representatives.” We fought a revolution against such kingly actions to tax w/out consent from Congress!
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 04/11/2025
On Trump's tariffs, I consistently find myself in firm agreement with the often crazy WSJ ed board! Their latest on how SCOTUS conservatives would have to bend themselves into a massive pretzel to support Trump is deeply incisive, rooted in historical precedent. www.wsj.com/opinion/dona...
wsj.com
Opinion | The Tariff King and the Supreme Court
Will the Justices stop Trump from usurping Congress’s power over taxes and tariffs?
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 02/11/2025
Tough to square the following a) it's not tariffs keeping inflation above target & b) rates must be cut. If it's not tariffs/goods pressures--which should subside when (if!) tariffs land on a rate--then it's something else that's harder to "look thru." www.nytimes.com/2025/11/01/u...
nytimes.com
Fed Governor Defends Call for Big Rate Cuts
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 22/10/2025
There's considerable evidence that consumer spending is increasingly skewed toward the top, driven by the weaker job market and slower wage growth. Given the extent to which spending has fueled this expansion, that's a fragility that bears close watching. econjared.substack.com/p/whos-spend...
econjared.substack.com
Who's Spending and What Does That Imply For Growth?
The weight of the evidence suggests an economy that's considerably more fragile than some of the data--remember when we used to get data?--are showing.
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 14/10/2025
It looks like a bubble to us: www.nytimes.com/2025/10/14/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | A.I. Sure Looks Like a Bubble. Watch Out When It Pops.
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