Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 04/10/2026Surprising finding, amiright? This is Morning Consult econ sentiment by social media usage, from GS: "on the less intuitive side, we find that sentiment is higher among social media users." They note the pattern is robust after controlling for age effects. 2113
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 24/09/2026Pls list your reasons for the increase in order of importance. Thank you for your attention…etc… 100
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 23/09/2026Fair points. Not nothing but less than meets eye. Do you think current spreads will prevent refiners from cutting runs if exports are banned? Or will they protect current spreads? Also, I worry US northeast faces >prices, even w Jones waiver. You? 111
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 21/09/2026I think r* has probably gone up, at least over the medium term. econjared.substack.com/p/reconjared.substack.comr*!Just because you can’t see it doesn’t mean we can’t talk about it! 063
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 19/09/2026These two things are closely connected, right? 1) Spiking gas price (diesel highest on record; "cars run on gas; economies run on diesel") and this "don't look there; look here!" breaking news (NYT): 2206
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 05/09/2026But given the actual fiscal outlook, dumping this junk off the back of a truck on Friday night is just the latest eg that they're not even phoning in fiscal policy anymore. 0165
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 05/09/2026I get it. This complaint is a bit like the old line: "The food here's terrible! And the portions are so small!" Their numbers/fcast would have surely been unreliable. We know Bessent's big deficit reduction plan is to "grow our way out of it!" Which is pure hand waving. 1142
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 05/09/2026The White House Budget Office (kinda) released the Mid-Session Review today. It's the barest bones MSR ever, w almost no budget numbers, no deficit accounting (revs - spending) and, for the 1st time in history, I believe, no economic forecast. www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u... 12714
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 28/08/2026I woke up, wrote a table-setter for the big Warsh speech, including the table below and hopes for some clarifications from the new chair. Then updated after the speech, which had +'s and -'s. Check it out: econjared.substack.com/p/before-and... 075
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 26/08/2026Fed officials have been leaning toward a rate hike, and basically challenging the data to talk them off of the ledge. This AMs PCE report doesn’t say “jump” but neither does it say “come inside and let’s talk this out.” 072
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 22/08/2026Those of us tracking the reliability of gov't statistics have not heretofore seen anything like this. It's a remarkable and deeply worrisome encroachment: econjared.substack.com/p/the-govern...econjared.substack.comThe Government Report That Made Me Stop Trusting Our Statistical AgenciesI’ve waved people off this degree of mistrust. I no longer can do so. 24325
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 09/08/2026It's good to see more construction jobs, but I suspect I speak for many: we'd like to see more homes, less data centers! (data are basically residential--down--and nonresidential--up--subcontractors) 0197
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 06/08/2026Tru dat!: siepr.stanford.edu/publications...siepr.stanford.eduThe way we were: Price-level shocks and consumers’ memoriesOther 230
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 06/08/2026Greg Ip (note exactly a commie) in a recent column on this labor share decline: “You can be a red-blooded capitalist and still worry about the political stability of an economy in which ever more output flows toward shareholders instead of employees.” www.wsj.com/finance/stoc...wsj.comThe Record Divide Between Corporate Profits and Worker PayLabor’s share of economic output just hit an all-time low, while the profit share neared a record. It helps explain why consumers feel so glum. 0125
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 06/08/2026Prod growth up, real comp down = falling labor share. Interested in your take on this decelerating trend? 140
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 06/08/2026From this AMs productivity data, BLS labor share lowest on record & tanking. Measurement issues bias this down some, but direction of travel is clear. And this is at low unemp. It's a sign of a serious distributional problem and further evidence of (good) macro/(bad) micro split. 1136
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 29/06/2026One thing that struck me here was the implied negative view of at-will employment. Which is virtually the employment situation of the 160 mill workers in the US labor market! 080
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 16/05/2026Just to be clear, you're puzzled by real hrly wg up 15%, 2015-19, but real incomes up ~twice that much, right? I'd say a) more hours worked by HHs, as unemp fell sharply in those years. But also, incomes include non-wage sources, so they'll often fail to match wage growth. Also, inc for all... 210
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 27/04/2026Here’s my piece on this, worth it just for the picture. No question, we’d get better monetary policy should Powell stay on board. But there are other considerations open.substack.com/pub/econjare...open.substack.comShould he stay or should he go?"If I go, there will be trouble. And if I stay, it will be double." 031
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 27/04/2026Fair point. Bad analogy. Better: two head chefs in same kitchen?? 020
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 15/03/2026Up-to-date info on pre-war econ baseline and post-war econ impacts. Yes, oil and gas, but not just them (that's the 30-year mortgage rate below). econjared.substack.com/p/weekly-wra... 1134
Reposted by Jared BernsteinDavid Madland @davidmadland.bsky.social · 10/03/2026The affordability debate is overlooking a key factor: higher wages. Union bargaining is the way to get there, @jaredb-econ.bsky.social and I argue for @theprogressivemag.bsky.social: tinyurl.com/mr2n8pastinyurl.comHow Union Bargaining Can Buoy AffordabilityA true affordability agenda should raise wages. Unions and collective bargaining can help achieve that. 2155
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 25/02/2026This is such important work, and practically in real time, which is very important. Also, shows economists can apply our skills to aid the resistance! 0157
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 11/02/2026Aside from the annoying moderator, I thought this price control debate was 1-2 std devs above the mean for this sort of thing. Jam packed with substance, evidence, logic, tradeoffs, clarity, and respect. And on an interesting, timely topic. www.youtube.com/watch?v=vrpm...youtube.comThe Affordability Conundrum: A Debate on How To Deliver Immediate Relief While Expanding SupplyYouTube video by Center For American Progress 242
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 31/01/2026Definitely K-shaped forces in play but you really have to understand the shock caused by the increase in the price level. See sentiment model herein and note how price-level-shock variable explains the large residual. open.substack.com/pub/econjare...open.substack.comIs the Affordability Crisis a Crisis?I think so. Here's why and what we can realistically do about it. 020
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 05/01/2026Affordability policy is often accused of aiming to lower the overall price level. Not so! The agenda is grounded on 2 criteria: a) short list of living-standard essential goods/services, wherein b) the market that produces them is flawed. www.nytimes.com/2026/01/05/o...nytimes.comOpinion | Yes, Politicians Should Run on Affordability 1153
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 29/12/2025Explaining the "big, yellow gap" between how folks feel about the economy these days (bad) and overall growth (good). As usual, we don't have all the data we need to explain the gap, but I draw on a lot of what we do have. econjared.substack.com/p/is-this-ec...econjared.substack.comIs This Economy Great or Awful?A Q & A on the factors behind the "big, yellow gap." 1146
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 12/12/2025Gemini just told me this: "While many people in the finance industry are increasingly interested in strength training, there are no well-known, high-profile economists famous specifically for their fitness or a muscular physique." Sounds right but I'd still like a fact check. 2131
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 02/12/2025Recall this being a useful dive into these issues: www.brookings.edu/articles/hig....brookings.eduHigher Education Spending: The Role of Medicaid and the Business Cycle | BrookingsBrookings Policy Brief #124 by Thomas J. Kane and Peter R. Orszag. (September 2003) 010
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 02/12/2025Looking forward to reading! Based on abstract, what do you think of a countercyclical program that ramps up in downturns to help newly unemp afford college (which for comm col means life costs more than tuition)? Useful nudge at strategic time?? 110
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 02/12/2025...with high inflation, of course. It's that they're not assuaged by low inflation, which just means the prices they're unhappy with are still climbing, only more slowly. 6111
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 02/12/2025I'm seeing this from the excellent @gelliottmorris.com: "I explain how “affordability” has become the new “inflation”" I've learned over many years now that affordability is much more a price level issue than a price change issue (tho normal people conflate the 2). It's not that people are fine... 2122
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 01/12/2025Healthcare affordability policies reside at the intersection of good politics (for Ds) and good policy (for all...well, except rent-seekers). Joint w @nealemahoney.bsky.social econjared.substack.com/p/healthcare...econjared.substack.comHealthcare Affordability: How Democrats Can Press Their Advantage On This Key IssueHere's a set of affordability ideas that reside at the intersection of good politics and good policy. 1133
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 30/11/2025Good point. I noted downside to markets. I don’t like it either. But given heightened uncertainty and unusual disruption to dataflow still think could be worth it. 030
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 30/11/2025Should they cut or should they hold? Or should they push the damn meeting back a bit to have a few more drops of precious data?! Some noodling on the Fed's Dec meeting: econjared.substack.com/p/should-the...econjared.substack.comShould They Cut or Should They Hold?"If they cut there will be trouble. If they hold it will be double." So, what the Fed should really do is push the meeting back a few days. 181
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 25/11/2025So, professor, if you were on the FOMC (which would be awesomely great), would you cut or hold at the Dec meeting? (Apologies if you say so in that hit which I didn't listen to...my b.) 010
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 25/11/2025You know how many were saying, even as the u-rate crept up of late, "of course, X% is still historically low unemployment." I think at 4.4%, that's no longer quite right, but interested in others'--some name-checked here--takes. econjared.substack.com/p/tuesdays-m...econjared.substack.comTuesday's Mashed PotatoesGetting ready for T-giving, here's a mash up: a few numbers of interest, and Greg Ip says affordability can't be solved and is therefore a loser for incumbents. 141
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 23/11/2025My mind has been blown! I grew up listening to the highly nuanced music of the Modern Jazz Quartet featuring Connie Kay on drums. I just learned that Connie Kay played on Joe Turner’s shake rattle and roll w its huge crazy backbeat! How did I not know that?! (Tho there’s some disagreement.) 180
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 19/11/2025The affordability crisis focuses on prices. That makes sense for reasons I articulate in this piece, but for economists, it's not just p (prices) that matter. It's y/p (real incomes). Just want to be careful not to lose sight of that part of the equation! econjared.substack.com/p/the-afford... 0135
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 13/11/2025A calculation somebody needs to do: take u-rate, payroll change, infl rate and average month t-1 and t+1. Report forecast error re t. @guyberger.bsky.social @ernietedeschi.bsky.social @aaronsojourner.org Thank u 4 your attention to this matter. 0145
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 10/11/2025Sorry, progressives & health care policy wonks. But we're going to have to re-remind everyone why Health Savings Accts are a tax shelter for the wealthy, not health insurance. Note distribution of premium tax credits vs. HSA contributions. www.cbpp.org/blog/five-re...cbpp.orgFive Reasons Lawmakers Should Reject Expansions of Health Savings AccountsExpanding health savings accounts (HSAs) is a key element of Republicans’ health care policy agenda. Ostensibly, HSAs allow people enrolled in certain health insurance policies to set aside money... 33715
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 05/11/2025Seems strong to me! Gorsuch today, warning about this very point: “a one-way ratchet toward the gradual but continual accretion of power in the executive branch and away from the people’s elected representatives.” We fought a revolution against such kingly actions to tax w/out consent from Congress! 1245
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 04/11/2025On Trump's tariffs, I consistently find myself in firm agreement with the often crazy WSJ ed board! Their latest on how SCOTUS conservatives would have to bend themselves into a massive pretzel to support Trump is deeply incisive, rooted in historical precedent. www.wsj.com/opinion/dona...wsj.comOpinion | The Tariff King and the Supreme CourtWill the Justices stop Trump from usurping Congress’s power over taxes and tariffs? 1134
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 02/11/2025Tough to square the following a) it's not tariffs keeping inflation above target & b) rates must be cut. If it's not tariffs/goods pressures--which should subside when (if!) tariffs land on a rate--then it's something else that's harder to "look thru." www.nytimes.com/2025/11/01/u...nytimes.comFed Governor Defends Call for Big Rate Cuts 1101
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 22/10/2025There's considerable evidence that consumer spending is increasingly skewed toward the top, driven by the weaker job market and slower wage growth. Given the extent to which spending has fueled this expansion, that's a fragility that bears close watching. econjared.substack.com/p/whos-spend...econjared.substack.comWho's Spending and What Does That Imply For Growth?The weight of the evidence suggests an economy that's considerably more fragile than some of the data--remember when we used to get data?--are showing. 5308
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 14/10/2025It looks like a bubble to us: www.nytimes.com/2025/10/14/o...nytimes.comOpinion | A.I. Sure Looks Like a Bubble. Watch Out When It Pops. 4248