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Jared Bernstein

@jaredb-econ.bsky.social
4.1K followers 300 following 199 posts
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Surprising finding, amiright? This is Morning Consult econ sentiment by social media usage, from GS: "on the less intuitive side, we find that sentiment is higher among social media users." They note the pattern is robust after controlling for age effects.
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
These two things are closely connected, right? 1) Spiking gas price (diesel highest on record; "cars run on gas; economies run on diesel") and this "don't look there; look here!" breaking news (NYT):
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
I woke up, wrote a table-setter for the big Warsh speech, including the table below and hopes for some clarifications from the new chair. Then updated after the speech, which had +'s and -'s. Check it out: econjared.substack.com/p/before-and...
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Fed officials have been leaning toward a rate hike, and basically challenging the data to talk them off of the ledge. This AMs PCE report doesn’t say “jump” but neither does it say “come inside and let’s talk this out.”
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
It's good to see more construction jobs, but I suspect I speak for many: we'd like to see more homes, less data centers! (data are basically residential--down--and nonresidential--up--subcontractors)
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Prod growth up, real comp down = falling labor share. Interested in your take on this decelerating trend?
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
From this AMs productivity data, BLS labor share lowest on record & tanking. Measurement issues bias this down some, but direction of travel is clear. And this is at low unemp. It's a sign of a serious distributional problem and further evidence of (good) macro/(bad) micro split.
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 15/03/2026
Up-to-date info on pre-war econ baseline and post-war econ impacts. Yes, oil and gas, but not just them (that's the 30-year mortgage rate below). econjared.substack.com/p/weekly-wra...
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 03/10/2025
Just so you know, if you hear a collective wail of pain, angst, and withdrawal from data nerds the world over at 8:30am ET this morning, here's why.
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 26/08/2025
Trying to take a few minutes away from the news of the day but fate had other ideas.
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 18/07/2025
...on this. We're still driving through the fog so have to go slow. Tariff price effects starting to show & more coming. And Trump's dragging out "negotiations" just thickens the fog. On 3, unrevised data don't show stall speed, & revisions-based arguments often turn out...
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 09/07/2025
yeah...um...nope
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 02/07/2025
The devolution of American fiscal policy in one annotated graph, told through the history of our publicly-held debt/GDP, including the impact of Trump and the R's budget bill.
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 12/06/2025
Who wins/who loses from tax changes in the budget is an important question. But a more important question is who wins/loses from the full tax agenda, including tariffs, a highly regressive tax. Here’s the answer from the Budget Lab. Answer: **everyone** except the wealthy.
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 04/06/2025
Friends don't let friends cite ADP, or at least we should wait for BLS on Friday. PMI services also came in below exp. GS researchers marked down May jobs forecast to 110K, which is just about breakeven as per Atl Fed. www.atlantafed.org/chcs/calcula...
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 19/05/2025
The tariffs are, of course, a drag on growth. The tax package, otoh, increases the deficit, so + fiscal impulse. What's the expected net impact? According to GS, it's negative. The tariff drag > than the fiscal boost. That said, when I look at this AM...
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 31/03/2025
The Trade Policy Uncertainty Index is out for March. It's...um...I think the technical phrase is...thru the roof. www.policyuncertainty.com/index.html
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 31/03/2025
Tariffs, Schrodinger's cat, internal pushback in the WH, and a very concerning stagflation forecast: econjared.substack.com/p/tariffs-an...
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 25/03/2025
As someone who has carefully tracked noisy economic data for decades, it takes a lot to get me to say the following: Trump administration policies are clearly and sharply damaging consumer confidence. IOW, not a blip, not one series or one month.
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
CPI inflation came in cooler than expected last month, both toplines and under the hood. That makes this a welcome report, but the tariffs aren't in here yet, and they clearly have the potential to reverse this disinflation. econjared.substack.com/p/data_note-...
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
Agree. But that's why I elevated WSJ editorial board, the rich guys' hymnal! But I still think you're right--it's the high-hand to anyone dumb enough not to see it his way. Thing is, in Trump 1, there was some elasticity to market reax. The day is young, so perhaps it's coming, but not so sure.
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 03/03/2025
Not seeing the graphic clearly in here so here it is, courtesy of Baker, Bloom, Davis. I just heard BBerg radio refer to tomorrow as "Tariff Tuesday" re proposed new Mexico, Canada, China import taxes. See ISM statement re miss on Feb manufacturing survey out this AM.
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 25/02/2025
Ok, there's something concerning going on with consumer sentiment/confidence--across numerous surveys and polls--and it is clearly tied to Trump admin actions, esp. tariffs and the extensive focus on retribution over working families' living standards. New Conf Board data:
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 21/02/2025
Reviewing this past week's dataflow: housing, UI, markets, and particularly interesting new polling data on Trump approval and tariffs. open.substack.com/pub/econjare...
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 20/12/2024
...that tariffs are passed forward to them. That's a fairly high-info result, esp given competing narratives about this. --otoh, there's the UMich commentary below, suggesting this just reflects partisanship. 4x share of D's are in that spike relative to Rs! --finally, re highlighted part...
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 20/12/2024
Here's an interesting figure from today's Umich Sentiment Survey for Dec. There's a striking spike in people worried about durable purchases about to get a lot more pricy, "in part due to anticipated tariffs." A few thoughts about this: --it suggests that consumers believe... www.sca.isr.umich.edu
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 06/12/2024
An uber lesson from all this is simply that pandemic economics is different such that "this time *isn't* different" analysis often foundered. I was impressed by the incisive clarity with which economist Jan Hatzius explained this the other day on Odd Lots podcast: bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 06/12/2024
On 2nd point above:
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 22/11/2024
From the very sharp David Mericle at GS Research, here's the impact of a 1 ppt tariff rate increase on core PCE, by channel. What's notable is the production cost impact is larger than the direct consumer cost. There are a lot of tariff fans in denial abt this cost thru intermediate imports.
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