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James Crabtree

@jamescrabtree.bsky.social
1.7K followers 366 following 38 posts

Analyst & writer. Billionaire Raj author. ecfr fellow. foreign policy columnist. Ex: IISS, FT, LKY School, UK Govt. LSE / Harvard.

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Reposted by James Crabtree
ECFR @ecfr.eu · 29/01/2026
🎧 New Emergency episode! @markhleonard.bsky.social welcomes @jamescrabtree.bsky.social live from India, to unravel the recent EU-India trade deal. Together, they explore India’s strategic pivot amid US tariffs, the potential for deeper defence and tech ties. Listen now! bit.ly/467RWVM
bit.ly
The EU-India mega-deal – European Council on Foreign Relations
Mark Leonard welcomes James Crabtree to unpack the landmark EU-India trade deal
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Reposted by James Crabtree
Foreign Affairs @foreignaffairs.com · 03/12/2025
As the United States becomes “a more erratic and occasionally troublesome” partner for New Delhi, India should align more closely with Europe, argue @jamescrabtree.bsky.social and Rudra Chaudhuri.
foreignaffairs.com
The India Trump Made
How American bullying is shaping Indian foreign policy.
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Daniel Drezner @dandrezner.bsky.social · 26/12/2025
<— Honored to have been a guest on @gideonrachman.bsky.social’s last FT podcast of 2025, also featuring @leslievinjamuri.bsky.social and @jamescrabtree.bsky.social. www.ft.com/content/1e62...
ft.com
Transcript: 2025 — a year of chaos and confusion
Gideon Rachman talks to Leslie Vinjamuri, Dan Drezner and James Crabtree
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James Crabtree @jamescrabtree.bsky.social · 03/12/2025
As Putin arrives in Delhi new @foreignaffairs.com w/ Rudra @carnegieendowment.org on — 🇮🇳 🇷🇺🇺🇸😕 & — 🇮🇳🇪🇺💪 "Trump’s approach is producing precisely the outcome it sought to prevent: a more multialigned India, less susceptible to bludgeoning pressure from US" www.foreignaffairs.com/guest-pass/r...
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Reposted by James Crabtree
Sunder Katwala (sundersays) @sundersays.bsky.social · 12/10/2025
Very interesting piece from @jamescrabtree.bsky.social on how Trump's desire for the Nobel Peace Prize has upsides - as in the push for the Gaza ceasefire - yet is also being studied in Islamabad, Beijing and beyond as a diplomatic opportunity worth gaming out foreignpolicy.com/2025/10/10/t...
foreignpolicy.com
Trump’s Nobel Peace Prize Obsession Isn’t Over
His vanity is reshaping geopolitics and opens a way to game U.S. policy.
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Reposted by James Crabtree
ECFR Asia @ecfrasia.bsky.social · 25/09/2025
🌏 What are the primary threats to undersea cables in today’s security environment and how can Europe & the Indo-Pacific work together to enhance monitoring & protection of this infrastructure? These questions were addressed at panel III of our Manilna conference. @ecfr.eu @jamescrabtree.bsky.social
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James Crabtree @jamescrabtree.bsky.social · 23/09/2025
🚨 EMERGENCY WEBINAR 🚨 With Nirupama Rao, Tom Wright, Lindsey Ford, Manisha Reuter, and me! 📅 India: 7:30 PM - 8:30 PM IST Europe: 4:00 PM - 5:00 PM CEST UK: 3:00 PM - 4:00 PM BST USA: 10:00 AM - 11:00 AM EDT 🔗 Register eu01web.zoom.us/webinar/regi... @ecfr.eu
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Reposted by James Crabtree
ECFR Asia @ecfrasia.bsky.social · 16/09/2025
Trump’s attacks on India have prompted New Delhi to reassess its diplomatic strategy – in his latest paper, @jamescrabtree.bsky.social discusses India’s back-up plan in a shifting world and the emerging potential for EU-India relations. ➡️ buff.ly/ncSI3Cb
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Reposted by James Crabtree
ECFR @ecfr.eu · 11/09/2025
American hostility towards India should not drive New Delhi to shift away from the West entirely. Europe provides a promising pathway—one that can help India balance its risks without rapidly escalating tensions with China, writes @jamescrabtree.bsky.social bit.ly/3JWyGlU
ecfr.eu
Pivot to Europe: India’s back-up plan in Trump’s world
Tensions with Trump will prompt India to seek rapprochement with Beijing, but the underlying competitive dynamics in China-India relations are unlikely to change. Against this backdrop…
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James Crabtree @jamescrabtree.bsky.social · 10/09/2025
🚨 NEW REPORT ALERT 🚨 New paper for @ecfr on India's global position as its ties with the US crumble. Basic argument is that Europe, not Russia or China, is the next best option for a rebalance.
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Reposted by James Crabtree
Andrew Martin @andrewmartin.bsky.social · 31/08/2025
I DID NOT need this quote from @jamescrabtree.bsky.social's newsletter. (or maybe I did, I'm not sure. In any case, it's an excellent newsletter)
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Niko Jaakkola @nikoecon.bsky.social · 30/08/2025
This @gideonrachman.bsky.social podcast with @jamescrabtree.bsky.social is a remarkable indictment of Trump & his wrecking years and years of US Indo-Pacific diplomacy. Astounding how he is allowed to shoot his own country in the foot.
ft.com
Taiwan’s Trump problem
Are the sands shifting for US policy in the Indo-Pacific region?
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James Crabtree @jamescrabtree.bsky.social · 28/08/2025
Latest @foreignpolicy.com. Xi and Putin will court Modi this weekend. I doubt very much India will take the bait, for good reason. Thoughts welcome as ever. Gift link — foreignpolicy.com/2025/08/27/i...
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Alice Hancock @alicemhancock.bsky.social · 08/07/2025
💥Rotterdam (Europe’s largest port) is preparing for a potential conflict with Russia by reserving space for military ships. Another great spot by @andybounds.bsky.social www.ft.com/content/0c42...
ft.com
Europe’s biggest port readies for potential war with Russia
Rotterdam has started reserving space for Nato supply ships and planning military exercises
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Will Davies @will-davies.bsky.social · 05/07/2025
the correct political economy take on Oasis is that their career perfectly mirrored left-neoliberalism: 1994-2009 was the period between Blair's abandoning of Clause Four, and the dawn of post-GFC austerity
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Jeremy Cliffe @jeremycliffe.bsky.social · 28/06/2025
Leaving @ecfr.eu’s #ACM25 in Warsaw after two days of ideas and discussion. The mood among the European foreign-policy crowd: somewhere between pessimism and realism. A gloomy consensus that mounting global disorder will demand cannier policymaking.
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James Crabtree @jamescrabtree.bsky.social · 27/06/2025
In Warsaw for two days of discussion at the @ecfr.eu council meeting, kicked off by @radek-sikorski.bsky.social, eloquent on "security Europe".
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James Crabtree @jamescrabtree.bsky.social · 10/06/2025
The lesson of global oligarchy: if billionaires fight with autocrats, the autocrats win. My latest in @foreignpolicy.com on Musk's grim road ahead if he doesn't back down. Gift Link — foreignpolicy.com/2025/06/09/e...
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Reposted by James Crabtree
Zack Cooper @zackcooper.bsky.social · 05/05/2025
Appreciate the thoughtful book review of Tides of Fortune this weekend in @financialtimes.com. Thanks @jamescrabtree.bsky.social! www.ft.com/content/47d6...
ft.com
China, Russia and the remaking of the Eurasian supercontinent
Three books offer a guide to shifting power in the region and what it means for the US and Europe
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Reposted by James Crabtree
ECFR Asia @ecfrasia.bsky.social · 09/05/2025
As the confrontation between India and Pakistan escalates, Europeans will likely have to take clear sides and re-assess the role of Chinese military technology in future wars—which could be much closer to home, write @jankaoertel.bsky.social & @jamescrabtree.bsky.social
buff.ly
Escalation in South Asia: Europe’s core interests amid crisis between India and Pakistan
This week, tensions between India and Pakistan have led to direct combat and fatalities. As the confrontation escalates, Europeans will likely have to take clear sides and re-assess the role of…
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James Crabtree @jamescrabtree.bsky.social · 09/05/2025
For India, it poses procurement questions; for Europe, it brings home a debate about the advanced capabilities that China is able and willing to provide for—and co-develop with—its partners, including Russia. ecfr.eu/article/esca...
ecfr.eu
Escalation in South Asia: Europe’s core interests amid crisis between India and Pakistan
This week, tensions between India and Pakistan have led to direct combat and fatalities. As the confrontation escalates, Europeans will likely have to take clear sides and re-assess the role of Chines...
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James Crabtree @jamescrabtree.bsky.social · 09/05/2025
As the first fatal combat interaction of modern Chinese and European fighter jets, this event demonstrated Chinese technological advances in radar and missile capabilities.
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James Crabtree @jamescrabtree.bsky.social · 09/05/2025
(4) China. A Chinese-made J-10C aircraft operated by Pakistan, equipped with PL-15 long-range air-to-air missiles, conducted its first-known air-to-air kill in live combat by shooting down a France-produced Indian Rafale. www.reuters.com/world/pakist...
reuters.com
Exclusive: Pakistan's Chinese-made jet brought down two Indian fighter aircraft, US officials say
A top Chinese-made Pakistani fighter shot down at least two Indian military aircraft on Wednesday, two U.S. officials told Reuters, marking a major milestone for Beijing's advanced fighter jet.
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James Crabtree @jamescrabtree.bsky.social · 09/05/2025
But clearer positioning will be necessary as the crisis further escalates. Put bluntly European nations will likely prioritise burgeoning relationship with India over concerns about worsening ties with Pakistan.
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James Crabtree @jamescrabtree.bsky.social · 09/05/2025
3. Europe so far has played it safe calling for moderation from "both sides". But beyond the US, most of the actual diplomacy is being done by Middle Eastern powers, not the west. But.... www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/gymnich...
eeas.europa.eu
Gymnich: press remarks by High Representative Kaja Kallas after the meeting
Good afternoon, everybody.    It is great to be here in Warsaw again and this Gymnich format meeting where we had very frank, very open discussions on very many issues that are topical today.   Of cou...
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James Crabtree @jamescrabtree.bsky.social · 09/05/2025
2. The military challenge in managing escalation relates to (Turkish) drones, which are out of the ordinary for Indo-Pak clashes. It's hard to know what counts as escalation, and both sides want to avoid precendents. www.ndtv.com/world-news/o...
ndtv.com
Turkey's Role In Focus After Pakistan's Military Escalation Against India
Pakistan's massive escalation along the Line of Control (LoC) in Jammu and Kashmir and the International Border in other states had a Turkish link.
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James Crabtree @jamescrabtree.bsky.social · 09/05/2025
5 thought on 🇮🇳🇵🇰 for 🇪🇺 from @jankaoertel.bsky.social & me, for @ecfr.eu. 1. 🇵🇰 military action overnight marks new escalation, with drone attacks on major cities. Likely 🇮🇳 will feel compelled to respond again to maintain escalation dominance, as @shashj.bsky.social notes ecfr.eu/article/esca...
ecfr.eu
Escalation in South Asia: Europe’s core interests amid crisis between India and Pakistan
This week, tensions between India and Pakistan have led to direct combat and fatalities. As the confrontation escalates, Europeans will likely have to take clear sides and re-assess the role of Chines...
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Reposted by James Crabtree
Stanley Pignal @spignal.bsky.social · 28/04/2025
You have to wonder what Mark Carney's other two wishes were after rubbing that bottle
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James Crabtree @jamescrabtree.bsky.social · 22/04/2025
"In the long run, Mr. Trump’s actions raise the possibility of the United States ceding its dominant position in Asia-Pacific security. Why, after all, would an increasingly inward-looking America defend a region where it has a reduced economic stake?"
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James Crabtree @jamescrabtree.bsky.social · 22/04/2025
The basic point: "This misguided, incompetent attack on global trade threatens to irreparably harm U.S. influence across the world’s most commercially dynamic region, leaving a vacuum for China to fill.....
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James Crabtree @jamescrabtree.bsky.social · 22/04/2025
Essay in @nytimes just up on Trump's tariff attack on "factory Asia" — and why it should now raise serious questions about long-term future of US security guarantees in the Indo-Pacific too. www.nytimes.com/2025/04/22/o...
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James Crabtree @jamescrabtree.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
In Delhi this week to speak at a few interesting events. A balmy 41 degrees yesterday. Good to see Stalinism is alive and well.
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James Crabtree @jamescrabtree.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
Looking forward to my marquee panel in Delhi today. Come and marvel as I manage a mere six panelists in 50 minutes, which by local standards, should be a doddle.
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Reposted by James Crabtree
ECFR @ecfr.eu · 28/02/2025
As EU-India talks continue in New Delhi, security and defence cooperation is in focus. Could India join PESCO? With global uncertainty rising, a new EU-India defence partnership is on the table. Read more from @jamescrabtree.bsky.social 📝 🔗 buff.ly/4h08hhX
buff.ly
In the wake of Trump: The EU’s chance to redefine its India relationship
As Ursula von der Leyen prepares to bring her team of European commissioners to New Delhi this week, she should seize the moment to deepen ties with her Indian counterparts. With Donald Trump in the…
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James Crabtree @jamescrabtree.bsky.social · 10/03/2025
New @asiasociety.org report from me for on Trump / Southeast Asia. Most in SEA want US to keep playing a role in Asia, fearing PRC domination. But as one official put it to me recently: if we now must provide tribute to the US, maybe we should stick with the tributary system we already know?
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James Crabtree @jamescrabtree.bsky.social · 06/03/2025
A glorious sunny day in Berlin, & a v timely @ecfr.eu meeting on Japan / Europe ties, and what to do variously with our strategic competitors, not just in Beijing but Washington. Excellent first panel with Michito Tsuruoka, Eva Pejsova, & Alexandra Sakaki, all chaired by Elli-Katharina Pohlkamp.
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James Crabtree @jamescrabtree.bsky.social · 05/03/2025
Off to Berlin to chair a timely @ecfr.eu Asia event about Europe and Japan. I'm told that if I hear a faint whoosh on arrival at the airport, I shouldn't be alarmed - just the sound of hitherto stiff German fiscal taps being turned on.....
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Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) @asiapolicy.asiasociety.org · 27/02/2025
For more on this topic, also read @jamescrabtree.bsky.social's new paper on how the second Trump administration will impact U.S.-China-Southeast Asia relations⬇️
asiasociety.org
U.S.–China–Southeast Asia Relations in a Second Trump Administration
James Crabtree looks at how a second Trump administration will impact U.S.-Southeast Asia relations and the implications for regional stability and economic growth.
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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 02/03/2025
Also the collective GDP of the EU + UK + Norway is around $24 trillion compared to $2 trillion for Russia. We have vastly more resources if we choose to use them.
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James Crabtree @jamescrabtree.bsky.social · 20/02/2025
My latest in @foreignpolicy.com ignPolicy. Trump was meant to be tough on China. You can see some operational signs of that shift. But at the strategic level, his early period in power looks broadly positive for Beijing. Link outside paywall 👇 foreignpolicy.com/2025/02/18/t...
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ECFR Asia @ecfrasia.bsky.social · 26/02/2025
"It is hard to imagine a better time to re-energise Europe’s and India’s historically lacklustre ties." - @jamescrabtree.bsky.social discusses the potential of European-Indian relations following Donald Trump’s return to the White House. @ecfr.eu
buff.ly
In the wake of Trump: The EU’s chance to redefine its India relationship
As Ursula von der Leyen prepares to bring her team of European commissioners to New Delhi this week, she should seize the moment to deepen ties with her Indian counterparts. With Donald Trump in the…
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James Crabtree @jamescrabtree.bsky.social · 26/02/2025
Lots of grim news in the world, but hard to imagine a better external context to push Europe and India to fix up their historically lacklustre relationship. My latest @ecfr commentary on the big 🇪🇺🇮🇳 trip this week...... ecfr.eu/article/in-t...
ecfr.eu
In the wake of Trump: The EU’s chance to redefine its India relationship
As Ursula von der Leyen prepares to bring her team of European commissioners to New Delhi this week, she should seize the moment to deepen ties with her Indian counterparts. With Donald Trump in the W...
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ECFR @ecfr.eu · 25/02/2025
As Ursula von der Leyen prepares to bring her team of European commissioners to New Delhi this week, she should seize the moment to deepen ties with her Indian counterparts, writes @jamescrabtree.bsky.social 📝
buff.ly
In the wake of Trump: The EU’s chance to redefine its India relationship
As Ursula von der Leyen prepares to bring her team of European commissioners to New Delhi this week, she should seize the moment to deepen ties with her Indian counterparts. With Donald Trump in the…
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James Crabtree @jamescrabtree.bsky.social · 24/02/2025
"Some in Washington argue that America can conduct a ‘reverse Kissinger’ that detaches Moscow from its quasi-alliance with Beijing. The analogy is historically uninformed and strategically illiterate." @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social on US "diplomatic surrender" www.iiss.org/online-analy...
iiss.org
America’s strategic diplomatic surrender
America is pre-emptively ceding fundamental and long-held positions to Russia in the hope of ending a war it is not fighting. This is likely to make it less, not more, secure.
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Mujtaba Rahman @mijrahman.bsky.social · 20/02/2025
‼️🇫🇷🇬🇧 France's Europe Minister Benjamin Haddad has just confirmed on TV that Macron will go to Washington to see trump early next week. Still not clear whether this will be a joint meeting with Starmer but the likelihood is that they will see him separately
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James Crabtree @jamescrabtree.bsky.social · 20/02/2025
My latest in @foreignpolicy.com ignPolicy. Trump was meant to be tough on China. You can see some operational signs of that shift. But at the strategic level, his early period in power looks broadly positive for Beijing. Link outside paywall 👇 foreignpolicy.com/2025/02/18/t...
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James Crabtree @jamescrabtree.bsky.social · 10/02/2025
At interesting ECFR breakfast with @jyshapiro.bsky.social and @markleonard.bsky.social Presenting this striking poll - on how positive most of the world, beyond core US allies, view Trump's return. ecfr.eu/publication/...
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James Crabtree @jamescrabtree.bsky.social · 31/01/2025
China’s military is building a massive complex in western Beijing that US intelligence believes will serve as a wartime command centre far larger than the Pentagon, according to current and former American officials.
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James Crabtree @jamescrabtree.bsky.social · 28/01/2025
Since Trump’s first year in office global trade roughly steady approx 60% of global GDP. B But this figure disguises US share of trade flows following and Asia, Europe and the Middle East rising. Interesting on global trade shifts from Ruchir Sharma www.ft.com/content/07ea...
ft.com
The world is moving on to trade without the US
Many nations have been responding to Trump tariffs not by retaliating but by courting other trade partners
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ECFR @ecfr.eu · 20/01/2025
The return of Donald Trump could shake the fundamentals of US relationships in the Indo-Pacific. Here’s how Europeans should act, argue @ellipohlkamp.bsky.social , @jamescrabtree.bsky.social , and @alexlipke.bsky.social 👇 buff.ly/3CwAVIT
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