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Nigel Gould-Davies

@nigelgould-davies.bsky.social
586 followers 181 following 75 posts

Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia, International Institute for Strategic Studies. Contributing editor, Survival. Fmr Ambassador to Belarus. Victims' rights advocate. Views mine.

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Nigel Gould-Davies @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
I did 100 press-ups a day in September for cancer research @cancerresearchuk.org. Even a token donation will contribute to this valuable work: fundraise.cancerresearchuk.org/page/100-pus... Thank you!
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Nigel Gould-Davies @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Witkoff and Kushner’s visit to Kyiv is a diplomatic win for Ukraine. But they still do not understand the nature of the war or what is needed to end it. My latest: www.iiss.org/online-analy...
iiss.org
The US and Russia: groundhog diplomacy
Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner’s visit to Kyiv is a diplomatic win for Ukraine. But they still do not understand the nature of the war or what is needed to end it.
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Nigel Gould-Davies @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Every morning this month I am doing 100 press-ups to support cancer research. Please do sponsor me. If half my followers each donate the price of a cup of coffee (£4), that's £1000 for cancer research. It takes a few seconds. Thank you! fundraise.cancerresearchuk.org/page/100-pus...
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Keir Giles @keirgiles.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
This, from highly experienced Russia hand @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social, matters: when somebody describes themselves as being part of the "Russian opposition", it is essential to enquire further: opposition *to what*, exactly? [1/3] spectator.com/article/does...
spectator.com
Does Russia’s exiled opposition want what’s best for Europe?
Europe welcomed genuine political dissidents during the Cold War, and should continue doing so. But some argue Europe should go further.
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Veiko Spolitis @veikospolitis.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
How credible is the Muscovite opposition (or rather oppositions?), or they are just a mere politicians in waiting tiptoeing around the prison of nations sunk in imperialist mindset? Well argued @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social! www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/08/11/s... via @moscowtimes.bsky.social
themoscowtimes.com
Soviet Dissidents Understood What Russia’s Exiled Opposition Has Forgotten - The Moscow Times
Opinion | In a recent article for the Moscow Times, the prominent Russian opposition politician Ilya Yashin claimed I argued that “the interests of Russia’s opposition in exile are fundamentally at od...
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Janet Gunn @janfred48.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Good article. What a cheek to call on the West to pay for Russia's reconstruction! No, the West will be helping with Ukraine's reconstruction, which should in fact be funded by Russia in the form of reparations.
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Ian Bond @cerianbond.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Excellent piece by @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social - though I don't think the problem is limited to the RU opposition: a lot of European governments, including the UK's, are also reluctant to try to weaken Russia too much or think about how to create conditions to favour systemic change there.
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Nigel Gould-Davies @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
My paper on the coming crisis in Russia's political economy. Explores the paradox that Russia is fighting a major war while paying, not compelling, its resources to do so. This is unsustainable. Kremlin-linked outlets have noticed the paper and responsed. www.iiss.org/research-pap...
iiss.org
The Coming Crisis in Russia’s Political Economy
Facing growing industrial and manpower constraints, Russia must soon decide whether to forcibly mobilise its economy and society for its war against Ukraine. The consequences for Russia’s stability and Europe’s security will be profound.
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Iikka Korhonen @iikkakorhonen.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
Excellent overview of the choices the Russian economy and political system are now facing by @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social www.iiss.org/research-pap...
iiss.org
The Coming Crisis in Russia’s Political Economy
Facing growing industrial and manpower constraints, Russia must soon decide whether to forcibly mobilise its economy and society for its war against Ukraine. The consequences for Russia’s stability and Europe’s security will be profound.
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The Moscow Times @themoscowtimes.com · 04/03/2026
Opinion: Russia's war on Ukraine is not a stalemate. On land, sea and air, in sanctions’ design and enforcement, and in the geography of resourcing, the war is escalating and will continue to do so, writes @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social.
themoscowtimes.com
Russia's War on Ukraine Isn't at a Stalemate. That Encourages Escalation. - The Moscow Times
Opinion | This article was originally published by the International Institue for Strategic Studies.
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Nigel Gould-Davies @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · 16/02/2026
Wow. Rubikon have caused significant difficulties for Ukraine. This defection, if genuine, could be a significant source of intelligence.
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Nigel Gould-Davies @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · 04/12/2025
My essay for Survival (the IISS journal) on the personal as geopolitical. Draws on my diplomatic past and present observations of the Trump presidency. www.iiss.org/online-analy...
iiss.org
Human Textures: The Personal as Geopolitical
While orthodox strategic arguments hover in the background, Trump himself speaks of international relations in visceral, tactile, intimate terms rather than bloodless abstractions of interest and values.
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Nigel Gould-Davies @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · 04/12/2025
My latest on the sound and fury --and predictable insignificance-- of the latest round of Russia-Ukraine diplomacy: www.iiss.org/online-analy...
iiss.org
Russia–Ukraine: turbulent diplomacy
A tumultuous week has consumed much energy, changed little and exposed Europe’s weakness.
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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 12/10/2025
Good take, IMO. NB: “RU’s behaviour will inevitably grow more risky and aggressive unless it faces unacceptable costs. The question is whether EUR will demonstrate… that it is ready to impose these. Failure to do so will merely postpone, not avert, confrontation.“
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R Phelps @greygosling.bsky.social · 11/10/2025
This is v good on why time is now on Ukraine's side. We urgently need more thinking that acknowledges how screwed Putin is and what comes next (like here, on Ru escalation, or on what the West must insist is in any peace deal), rather than the usual musings on Russian strength.
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Ivan U. KŁYSZCZ @ivanklyszcz.com · 09/10/2025
Very important points raised by @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social: ‘time may no longer be on Russia’s side. The balance of material and technological potential vastly favours its adversaries. Russia can now prevail only [...] by undermining their resolve.’ www.iiss.org/online-analy...
iiss.org
The Russia–Ukraine war has entered a new phase
Recent policy choices by America, Europe and China, and domestic economic strains, are reshaping Russia’s calculus. Since time may no longer be on its side, it is challenging Western resolve in more risky and aggressive ways. This is certain to escalate unless Europe responds.
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Nigel Gould-Davies @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · 07/10/2025
Time may no longer be on Russia's side. US, EU and Chinese policies, and domestic strains, are reshaping Russia's calculus. So it is challenging Western resolve in risker ways. This is certain to escalate unless Europe responds. www.iiss.org/online-analy...
iiss.org
The Russia–Ukraine war has entered a new phase
Recent policy choices by America, Europe and China, and domestic economic strains, are reshaping Russia’s calculus. Since time may no longer be on its side, it is challenging Western resolve in more risky and aggressive ways. This is certain to escalate unless Europe responds.
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Nigel Gould-Davies @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · 22/09/2025
Delighted to speak at this truly excellent conference. #HSF25
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Brian Taylor @bdtaylor-su.bsky.social · 22/08/2025
"There is currently no sign Putin will scale back his expansive ambitions unless he concludes that continuing to pursue them may call into question the security of his regime." Sharp and succinct as always from @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social
iiss.org
Russia–Ukraine: peace looks more remote than ever
Russia has not scaled back its ambitions and America will not pressure it to do so. Territorial issues and security guarantees are currently second-order issues. The war remains intractable.
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Samuel Bendett @sambendett.bsky.social · 17/08/2025
euromaidanpress.com/2025/08/17/u...
euromaidanpress.com
Ukraine sanctions Russia’s international AI drone networks - Euromaidan Press
Companies across Russia, China, and Belarus participate in Moscow's autonomous AI warfare production chains.
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Nigel Gould-Davies @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · 15/08/2025
Rarely has a major summit been so significant, hastily prepared, and uncertain in outcome. My latest for IISS 👇 www.iiss.org/online-analy...
iiss.org
Alaska: moment of truth?
The imminent summit in Alaska could well prove a decisive moment for Europe, Russia, Ukraine and the United States.
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Emma Burrows @eburrows.bsky.social · 12/08/2025
Trump & Putin’s Alaska summit is a “profoundly alarming moment for Europe.” Putin might persuade Trump to accept Russian sovereignty over parts of Ukraine or lift sanctions. That would cause a “really serious” transatlantic alliance split @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social apnews.com/article/euro...
apnews.com
Europe's sidelined leaders urge Trump to defend security interests at his summit with Putin
European Union leaders have urged U.S. President Donald Trump to defend their security interests at Friday's summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the war in Ukraine.
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Nigel Gould-Davies @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · 22/07/2025
An exceptionally fluid moment in international relations. I am more cautiously optimistic than many. 🧵👇 /1 www.iiss.org/online-analy...
iiss.org
Russia’s bad month of diplomacy
Trump’s relationship with Putin has never been worse. If NATO implements its new spending commitments, and Trump his sanctions, time may no longer be on Russia’s side.
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Nigel Gould-Davies @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · 16/07/2025
Personal news, which I rarely share here. My stalker was sentenced to 6 years for a "campaign of psychological cruelty". She has a "long and truly appalling" criminal record, and has spent her life "harming others". My deepest thanks to everyone who has supported me through this ordeal.
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Nigel Gould-Davies @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · 26/05/2025
Becky Anderson asked me about Trump's latest outburst against Putin. "As a fellow Brit, you'll be familiar with the phrase 'all mouth and no trousers'."
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Justin Ling @justinling.ca · 26/05/2025
If you need a bit of a primer on this electronic war stuff, I've got you covered: www.wired.com/story/electr...
wired.com
The Invisible Russia-Ukraine Battlefield
In Russia’s war against Ukraine, electronic warfare, including signal-jamming, anti-drone weapons, and innovative protections for critical military systems, has become a key piece of the conflict.
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Nigel Gould-Davies @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · 08/05/2025
Never thought I'd see a potato shortage in Belarus.
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Nigel Gould-Davies @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · 08/05/2025
Personal news, which I rarely share here. Yesterday my stalker was found guilty on all four counts in a unanimous verdict. My deepest thanks to all who have supported me through this 18-month ordeal. I don't have the words to express my gratitude.
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James Crabtree @jamescrabtree.bsky.social · 24/02/2025
"Some in Washington argue that America can conduct a ‘reverse Kissinger’ that detaches Moscow from its quasi-alliance with Beijing. The analogy is historically uninformed and strategically illiterate." @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social on US "diplomatic surrender" www.iiss.org/online-analy...
iiss.org
America’s strategic diplomatic surrender
America is pre-emptively ceding fundamental and long-held positions to Russia in the hope of ending a war it is not fighting. This is likely to make it less, not more, secure.
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Nigel Gould-Davies @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · 16/04/2025
What is stopping Europe from taking Russian Central Bank assets, frozen since February 2022?
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Nigel Gould-Davies @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · 21/01/2025
Who is doing research on prospects for more US LNG exports to Europe? Technical/econ/pol etc dimensions.
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Nigel Gould-Davies @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · 11/01/2025
Europe fears US will withdraw commitments and resources from Ukraine, and perhaps the continent. But it can craft a diplomatic strategy to avert this. What would it look like? /1 www.iiss.org/online-analy...
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Nigel Gould-Davies @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · 22/12/2024
EU importing (now record levels of) LNG from Russia. More important still, importing plenty of Russian oil, via Indian refineries, despite its Russian oil embargo. US can replace this.
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Nigel Gould-Davies @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · 12/12/2024
Spot on. The costs of permanent insecurity, or worse, will be far greater.
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Nigel Gould-Davies @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · 05/12/2024
Anyone here in Bucharest this weekend?
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Christopher Miller @christopherjm.ft.com · 24/11/2024
New investigation with my @financialtimes.com colleagues: Russia recruits Yemeni mercenaries to fight in Ukraine on.ft.com/3CIJP6p
on.ft.com
Russia recruits Yemeni mercenaries to fight in Ukraine
[FREE TO READ] Mysterious Houthi-linked company duping men into joining Moscow’s war machine
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Nigel Gould-Davies @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · 23/11/2024
"Whatever it takes." Europe's population: c. 500m Europe's military help for Ukraine: c. EUR 50bn = EUR 100 per citizen Divide by 33 months of war = EUR 3.0 => Europe's military help = 1 cup of coffee per citizen per month. We can do more.
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auonsson @auonsson.bsky.social · 23/11/2024
There has been a concerted, systematic effort at mapping and sometimes sabotaging water infra in West Sweden, local police have shown. It is suspected to be going on nation-wide. Follows pattern of no thefts though there are expensive stuff, always manage to evade CCTV, usually professional.
sverigesradio.se
Därför tar fienden sikte på vårt dricksvatten - Gräns
En inbrottsturné i Sverige mot vattentorn och andra vattenanläggningar oroar svensk polis. Det skulle kunna vara främmande makt som försöker kartlägga ...
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