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Isabelle Guinaudeau

@iguinaudeau.bsky.social
2.8K followers 1.1K following 139 posts

Political scientist, CNRS researcher at Sciences Po, CEE - currently at Centre Marc Bloch in Berlin: researching comparative politics, party competition and how elections shape policy

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Reposted by Isabelle Guinaudeau
Francesco Raffaelli @fraraffaelli.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
The tour goes on ;) I’m presenting this paper at Sciences Po tomorrow at the UNEQUALMAND Workshop. Thanks to @iguinaudeau.bsky.social @elisadeisshelbig.bsky.social & @theresmatthiess.bsky.social for organizing!
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Reposted by Isabelle Guinaudeau
Fabrizio Gilardi @fgilardi.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
I'm hiring! Three-year postdoc (80%) in my research group at @ipz.bsky.social, starting January 2027. Digital technology and politics, some teaching. Deadline: 30 September 2026. Questions welcome, and please share! www.ipz.uzh.ch/dam/jcr:bbee... (pdf)
Job ad, postdoc position
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Magda Breyer @mabreyer.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
How do individuals normatively assess changes to the social order and what does this tell us about electoral realignment? New publication with @dpzollinger.bsky.social and Tabea Palmtag out now in the Journal of European Public Policy 😊 doi.org/10.1080/1350...
The title and abstract of the article in a screenshot
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Elisa Deiss-Helbig @elisadeisshelbig.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Back-to-office surprise: Our piece on ideological divides in citizens’ deservingness perceptions now comes with page numbers! 📃✨ @theresmatthiess.bsky.social @iguinaudeau.bsky.social
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Reposted by Isabelle Guinaudeau
European Political Science Review @epsrjournal.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
🍋 18.3 Who gets what? 🎁 @elisadeisshelbig.bsky.social, @iguinaudeau.bsky.social & @theresmatthiess.bsky.social question which social groups are viewed as deserving of beneficial policy, using French and German survey data, to find that divides create incentive for competition 🥈 buff.ly/wpDYJE3
buff.ly
Who deserves? Ideological gaps in citizens’ deservingness perceptions | European Political Science Review | Cambridge Core
Who deserves? Ideological gaps in citizens’ deservingness perceptions - Volume 18 Issue 3
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Reposted by Isabelle Guinaudeau
Centre for European Studies and Comparative Politics @sciencespo-cee.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
📰 Le scrutin majoritaire en France a perdu ses principales justifications : dégager une majorité de gouvernement et clarifier les responsabilités. Dans la revue Conférence, @iguinaudeau.bsky.social & @egrossman.bsky.social montrent que la proportionnelle apporterait plus de cohérence démocratique.
conference.sciencespo.fr
La proportionnelle, pour plus de cohérence démocratique
De la démocratie directe et du scrutin proportionnel aux nouvelles formes de délibération citoyenne, des chercheuses et chercheurs explorent pour la revue Conférence n°5, La Ve République sous tens...
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Reposted by Isabelle Guinaudeau
European Journal of Political Research @ejprjournal.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
It is risky buisness 🎲 @theresmatthiess.bsky.social, @elisadeisshelbig.bsky.social & @iguinaudeau.bsky.social address electoral targeting research gaps using a German pre-registered survey to examine how voters respond to targeted policy
buff.ly
Risky appeals: The electoral consequences of group-targeted campaign pledges | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core
Risky appeals: The electoral consequences of group-targeted campaign pledges
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Reposted by Isabelle Guinaudeau
Cambridge University Press Political Science & IR @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org · 11/06/2026
#OpenAccess from @ejprjournal.bsky.social - Risky appeals: The electoral consequences of group-targeted campaign pledges - cup.org/4fqMG57 - @iguinaudeau.bsky.social, @elisadeisshelbig.bsky.social & @theresmatthiess.bsky.social #FirstView
Logo of the European Political Science Review, featuring the acronym 'EPSR' in large letters with the full name underneath and the hashtag '#OpenAccess' at the bottom, all set against a dual-tone background.
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Reposted by Isabelle Guinaudeau
Theres Matthieß @theresmatthiess.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
Risky group appeals? 😱 Our paper on how citizens react to electoral promises targeted at different social groups is published in @ejprjournal.bsky.social With @iguinaudeau.bsky.social & @elisadeisshelbig.bsky.social 🚀 🔓 doi.org/10.1017/S147...
static.klipy.com
Risk It For The Biscuit
ALT: Risk It For The Biscuit
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Isabelle Guinaudeau @iguinaudeau.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
Really interesting study! The impact is probably even more crucial in countries using majoritarian systems such as France.
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Isabelle Guinaudeau @iguinaudeau.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
Group-targeted promises are no easy electoral win. They can be risky appeals. Link to paper: doi.org/10.1017/S147...
doi.org
Risky appeals: The electoral consequences of group-targeted campaign pledges | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core
Risky appeals: The electoral consequences of group-targeted campaign pledges
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Isabelle Guinaudeau @iguinaudeau.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
Why? We find little evidence of a strong ingroup bonus. Instead, support drops among outgroups: voters who are not part of the targeted group, do not identify with it, or see it as less deserving.
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Isabelle Guinaudeau @iguinaudeau.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
But in our experiment, targeted pledges produced lower average support than a broad-based pledge.
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Isabelle Guinaudeau @iguinaudeau.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
Parties increasingly promise benefits to specific groups, (parents, pensioners, rural residents...) This may make promised benefits more visible, concrete and personally relevant – and thus mobilize beneficiaries more effectively.
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Isabelle Guinaudeau @iguinaudeau.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
💫 New paper! @elisadeisshelbig.bsky.social, @theresmatthiess.bsky.social & I are happy to see our new paper published in open access with the @ejprjournal.bsky.social Do group-targeted campaign pledges pay off electorally? We test this with a preregistered survey experiment in Germany.
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Elisa Deiss-Helbig @elisadeisshelbig.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
Very happy to see this article on ideological gaps in citizens’ deservingness perceptions written with @iguinaudeau.bsky.social & @theresmatthiess.bsky.social published first view by the @epsrjournal.bsky.social ✨ 🔗 Read the article here: shorturl.at/XGMk8
cambridge.org
Who deserves? Ideological gaps in citizens’ deservingness perceptions | European Political Science Review | Cambridge Core
Who deserves? Ideological gaps in citizens’ deservingness perceptions
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Reposted by Isabelle Guinaudeau
Theres Matthieß @theresmatthiess.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
🚨 Our article “Who deserves? Ideological gaps in citizens’ deservingness perceptions?” is out in @epsrjournal.bsky.social. Joint work with @elisadeisshelbig.bsky.social and @iguinaudeau.bsky.social from the 🇫🇷🇩🇪 UNEQUALMAND project. 👉🏻 shorturl.at/qoBDU%F0%9F%... 1/3
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Isabelle Guinaudeau @iguinaudeau.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
There are only a few days left to apply for the UNEQUALMAND workshop in Paris! If interested, make sure to send me your proposal by 31 May 🤗
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Isabelle Guinaudeau @iguinaudeau.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
Reminder 🤗 A little less than 2 weeks left to apply for our final project workshop in Paris 👇
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Lena Maria Huber @lenamariahuber.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
📣 New paper out in BJPolS 📣
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Isabelle Guinaudeau @iguinaudeau.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
📣 Call for papers! Final UNEQUALMAND workshop on social groups, mandate responsiveness & political (in)equality 📍 Sciences Po, Paris 📅 24–25 Sept 2026 🏫 Lodging 🚅 Travel≤€500 📝 Proposals due 31 May Details: lnkd.in/gjXsmb7y With @elisadeisshelbig.bsky.social and @theresmatthiess.bsky.social
lnkd.in
LinkedIn
This link will take you to a page that’s not on LinkedIn
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Reposted by Isabelle Guinaudeau
Jérémie Iordanoff @iordanoff.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
Pas de majorité stable, et une représentation déformée du vote des Français. Il est temps de corriger le système. C’est le sens de notre initiative transpartisane sur la proportionnelle aux législatives avec @g-gouffiervalente.bsky.social @erwanbalanant.bsky.social & Marie Recalde 🗳️ ⬇️
leparisien.fr
« Un premier caillou dans un chemin assez long » : à l’Assemblée, une démonstration de force en faveur de la proportionnelle
Après avoir déposé en octobre un texte, resté lettre morte, visant à réformer le mode de scrutin aux législatives, un quatuor de députés org
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Diane Bolet @dianebolet.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
A reminder that applications for this 3-year fully funded PhD position close at the end of next week (May 17). This is a great opportunity to work on climate politics comparative politics in a vibrant environment, with loads of freedom to develop your own project. www.sciencespo.fr/centre-etude...
sciencespo.fr
Call for applications for a 3 years doctoral contract
For the ERC GREENLOSS Project - Application deadline: May 17, 2026
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Isabelle Guinaudeau @iguinaudeau.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
But it was striking yesterday to see the breadth of the coalition behind the discussion. The event was initiated by MPs from four different parliamentary families and involved one former President and two former Prime ministers from different parties. Something is clearly moving 👀
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Isabelle Guinaudeau @iguinaudeau.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
The main obstacles are thus political: sticky prejudices about proportional representation, self-preserving reflexes among politicians elected under current rules, and the short-sighted belief that the majoritarian system might eventually deliver an absolute majority to one’s own camp.
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Isabelle Guinaudeau @iguinaudeau.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
This does not mean that reform is imminent, but the obstacle is not constitutional: the electoral system is not entrenched in the Constitution and can be changed by ordinary law.
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Isabelle Guinaudeau @iguinaudeau.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
A proportional system would not magically create a culture of compromise. But it would reduce our current reliance on barrage voting, clarify electoral outcomes and help making governments more broadly representative – and therefore more legitimate and able to govern.
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Isabelle Guinaudeau @iguinaudeau.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
Pre-electoral alliances (vital to survive in the current system) trap parties in bloc-based strategies that are very costly to revise post-election and hinder the search for majorities. At the same time, the “victories” produced by tactical withdrawals and barrage voting remain deeply ambiguous.
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Isabelle Guinaudeau @iguinaudeau.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
… yet the system no longer reliably delivers what was supposed to justify these costs: stable majorities, clear mandates, and effective government. Governments are increasingly unstable and incapable of governing.
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Isabelle Guinaudeau @iguinaudeau.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
The current system increasingly combines the worst of both worlds: highly disproportional results (parties have been able to win absolute majorities with less than 1/3 of first-round votes), huge shares of votes not translated in any form of representation...
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Isabelle Guinaudeau @iguinaudeau.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
In other words, the proposal seeks to preserve territorial representation while introducing an ambitious compensatory logic.
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Isabelle Guinaudeau @iguinaudeau.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
A cross-party bill proposes to introduce a mixed compensatory system for legislative elections (inspired by the German and NZ models): this would keep 577 MPs, 347 elected in single-member constituencies and 230 elected from national compensatory lists. www.assemblee-nationale.fr/dyn/17/dossi...
assemblee-nationale.fr
Instaurer le scrutin proportionnel pour les élections législatives
Proposition de loi organique visant à instaurer le scrutin proportionnel pour les élections législatives (dépôt le lundi 13 octobre 2025).
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Isabelle Guinaudeau @iguinaudeau.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
What struck me most was that the debate has moved forward: proportional representation is no longer discussed as a mere abstract or value-based choice. The debate has become more precise: which electoral system could help France move out of the current crisis?
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Isabelle Guinaudeau @iguinaudeau.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
This is the broader context in which I took part yesterday in a cross-party conference at the French National Assembly on electoral reform: “Proportional representation: the ballot is open.”
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Isabelle Guinaudeau @iguinaudeau.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
This is politically dangerous. The more voters feel that their strategic mobilisation is misread, the greater the risk that they end up abstaining or refusing to contribute to the “barrage” next time. The far right may then not even need to convince a majority.
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Isabelle Guinaudeau @iguinaudeau.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
How long will the barrage hold? It repeatedly asks citizens to support candidates they may dislike and who may later behave as if they had received a positive mandate to implement their programme.
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Isabelle Guinaudeau @iguinaudeau.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
The perspective of 2027 makes this pressing. If the far right is once again in a position to win many 2nd-round contests, preventing the majoritarian system from amplifying its support will rely on “barrage” voting: voters mobilising not for their preferred candidate, but against RN.
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Isabelle Guinaudeau @iguinaudeau.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
But relying on 49.3 to govern is not a viable perspective given the way this nourishes already huge political frustrations: www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1...
tandfonline.com
Prime ministers and the electoral cost of using the confidence vote in legislative bargaining: evidence from France
Do prime ministers pay an electoral penalty for using procedural force to pass laws? Influential theories of parliamentary governance and legislative bargaining assume that the use of the confidenc...
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Isabelle Guinaudeau @iguinaudeau.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
The 2026 budget, in particular, could only be adopted through the use of Article 49.3, a constitutional device that allows the government to pass a bill unless a no-confidence motion succeeds, i.e. without a vote.
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Isabelle Guinaudeau @iguinaudeau.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
In theory, the current parliamentary fragmentation should encourage negotiations to construct majorities. But institutions, electoral incentives and political habits keep pushing parties to behave as if unilateral government remained possible.
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Isabelle Guinaudeau @iguinaudeau.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
Can France still be governed under its current electoral system? After almost two years of parliamentary fragmentation, the situation remains unsettled: huge frustration, no stable majority and a presidential election already casting its polarising shadow over parliamentary life.
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MZES Uni Mannheim @mzesunimannheim.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
Today! 👇🙂
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Isabelle Guinaudeau @iguinaudeau.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
Many thanks to the @mzesunimannheim.bsky.social for the invitation to present our new experiment with @elisadeisshelbig.bsky.social and @theresmatthiess.bsky.social next Tuesday! I really look forward to the discussion 👀 Please let me know if you are in Mannheim and would like to meet.
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Julius Kölzer @juliusk.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
For months, Germany has been controversially debating the return of military conscription. But who actually supports it? And more importantly, why? Here are some insights based on a representative survey from last autumn. A thread 🧵 www.bbc.com/news/article...
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Isabelle Guinaudeau @iguinaudeau.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
A vrai dire, ça fait longtemps que je n’ai plus enseigné en français et je ne suis pas la meilleure source de références récentes ! Mais en voici une 😊 www.pressesdesciencespo.fr/fr/book/?GCO...
pressesdesciencespo.fr
La science politique - Presses de Sciences Po
Florence Haegel - Ce manuel s'organise en douze chapitres autonomes, chacun d’eux centré sur une grande notion, de l’État à la violence politique en passant par la démocratie, les régimes autoritaires...
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Rahel Freiburghaus @rfrbrghs.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
Chères·chers collègues enseignant·es en français, pour un cours de 1ère année portant sur les systèmes politiques, je suis à la recherche d’un manuel en français. Est-ce que quelqu’un aurait la gentillesse de partager une suggestion ? Merci bcp ! @iguinaudeau.bsky.social @fredericmerand.bsky.social
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Karsten Donnay @karstendonnay.bsky.social · 31/01/2026
🚨Job alert 🚨 I have an opening for a postdoc in my team at @ipz.bsky.social in the area of digital democracy starting Sep 1, 2026. If you are working on the impact of the digital transformation on politics, please apply by 🗓️ Mar 1, 2026. 📤 Please share widely! www.ipz.uzh.ch/de/ueber-uns...
ipz.uzh.ch
Offene Stellen / Open Positions
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Isabelle Guinaudeau @iguinaudeau.bsky.social · 02/02/2026
Wir sind schon am Chatten 😊🙏
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Isabelle Guinaudeau @iguinaudeau.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
Liebe Survey-Erfahrene in 🇩🇪, @elisadeisshelbig.bsky.social, @theresmatthiess.bsky.social und ich hätten Fragen an Euch 🤓 1) Gibt es Bedenken gegen die Erhebung von PLZ oder Gemeinde, um lokale soz.-ökon. Indikatoren zu mergen? 2) Kennt Ihr gute Datensätze auf PLZ-/Gemeindeebene? 🙏 🙏 🙏
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Isabelle Guinaudeau @iguinaudeau.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
Liebe Survey-Erfahrene in 🇩🇪, @elisadeisshelbig.bsky.social, @theresmatthiess.bsky.social und ich hätten Fragen an Euch 🤓 1) Gibt es Bedenken gegen die Erhebung von PLZ oder Gemeinde, um lokale soz.-ökon. Indikatoren zu mergen? 2) Kennt Ihr gute Datensätze auf PLZ-/Gemeindeebene? 🙏 🙏 🙏
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