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Ivaylo Iaydjiev

@iaydjiev.bsky.social
124 followers 277 following 68 posts

Previoualy researcher @UniofOxford, 🇪🇺 policy @EU_Commission, deputy minister of finance 🇧🇬. Owns my views.

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Reposted by Ivaylo Iaydjiev
ironeconomist.bsky.social @ironeconomist.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Someone wishes for the good old days and the monkeys paw has decided we should do: (1) a 1970s oil crisis (2) a 1990s tech cycle (3) a 2010s eurozone debt crisis All at once.
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Ivaylo Iaydjiev @iaydjiev.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Well, Francis Fukuyama on Bloomberg Odd Lots was certainly a surprise - and a good convo. Bottom line: liberalism in one way or another cannot survive without delivering effective government. open.spotify.com/episode/1gqx...
open.spotify.com
What Francis Fukuyama Is Seeing at 'The End of History'
Odd Lots · Episode
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Ivaylo Iaydjiev @iaydjiev.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Indeed, the future ain't what it used to be. As Ivan Krastev has rightly point out, future is also in deficit in politics. Perhaps retrofuturism is sometimes more apt than populism... The rise of retrofuturism www.economist.com/business/202...
economist.com
The rise of retrofuturism
A new aesthetic is taking hold in Silicon Valley and beyond
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Reposted by Ivaylo Iaydjiev
Stanley Pignal @spignal.bsky.social · 31/01/2025
Make German Politics Boring Again
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Reposted by Ivaylo Iaydjiev
Toby Nangle @tobyn.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
🚨 G7 countries on track to lock in $50bn addl int costs by Q127 due to higher bond yields since Op Epic Fury. www.ft.com/content/6331...
My estimate as to the additional financing costs so far locked in by G7 countries since Operation Epic Fury began, and how much G7 countries will need to complete their bond issuance programs by Q12027.
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Ivaylo Iaydjiev @iaydjiev.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
With the rise of RES and security of supply issues, 🔋are becoming critical to 🇪🇺 Europe's energy system. And it seems that, for once, Bulgaria 🇧🇬 is very much at the forefront of this, not the least through significant investments funded by its Recovery and Resilience Plan. #eupublicgoods
europebuilding.substack.com
Who is the leader in energy storage in the EU?
Erm...Bulgaria?
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Ivaylo Iaydjiev @iaydjiev.bsky.social · 02/08/2026
Not sure about the title, but a nicely informed view of concentration risk and history of bubbles. Although it does not answer the question it raises itself - how can you effectively diversify? Can you even diversify in today's market - or is AI simply everywhere?
ft.com
The end of ‘The Magnificent 7’: the problem with stock nicknames
A cynic would say such monikers are made up by professionals looking to hype markets — I think ‘The Mag 7’ is much more dangerous than that
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Reposted by Ivaylo Iaydjiev
Georg Zachmann @gzachmann.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
We have something new for you! Today we launched the Bruegel ETS Tracker. Based on the great work by Jan Abrell you can now easily access: - emissions by sector, location, installation, time - allocation - auction revenues - carbon prices ets.bruegel.org [feedback more than welcome]
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Ivaylo Iaydjiev @iaydjiev.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
I see @bruegel.org asks "Where is the (EU) growth?" www.bruegel.org/podcast/wher... Answer: in South, East, and South-East Europe. The countries actually pushing the euro area average to <1% are mostly DE, IT, FR (as well as BE, АТ, SK, FI).
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Reposted by Ivaylo Iaydjiev
Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 03/06/2026
G7 long-term borrowing costs are reaching record-highs • US$50trn market for G7 sovereign bonds has yields at two-decade high, complicating fiscal equations • Data suggest investors expect higher inflation is here for good amid rising energy prices and supply shocks www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
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Ivaylo Iaydjiev @iaydjiev.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
From the eurodollar to the...spacedollar? I would assume any local currency will float.
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Ivaylo Iaydjiev @iaydjiev.bsky.social · 02/05/2026
Hard to disagree w/ @katie0martin.ft.com : "I’ve yet to speak to bond investor who would turn their nose up at joint European sovereign-style bonds issued at scale" We have EU bonds, but we're willingly preparing to extinguish them. And plenty to do with indices, CRAs... www.ft.com/content/5f02...
ft.com
The euro’s urgent need
Europe must finally grasp the opportunity to develop the single currency as a reserve asset
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Ivaylo Iaydjiev @iaydjiev.bsky.social · 25/04/2026
This is what football is all about. #CanYouHearThatFIFA
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Ivaylo Iaydjiev @iaydjiev.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
Not sure that was the intended effect, but I seem to be learning a lot about railroad financing in the 19th century from discussions about AI.
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Reposted by Ivaylo Iaydjiev
António Costa @eucopresident.consilium.europa.eu · 23/04/2026
Today we moved forward on both: ▪️ Unlocking the €90 billion loan to Ukraine, securing financial and military support for 2026–2027. ▪️ Adopting the 20th package of sanctions against Russia, reducing its ability to wage war. Europe stands firm, united and unwavering in its support to Ukraine.
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Reposted by Ivaylo Iaydjiev
Robin Wigglesworth @robinwigglesworth.ft.com · 22/04/2026
After months of work, the FT's new finance history podcast is now finally live! 🥳 The first two episodes — hosted by Gillian Tett and yours truly — are on Mesopotamian debt and genius investors of yore. Pods on railway bonds, the Nixon Shock and the stones of Yap coming. www.ft.com/tsom?syn-25a...
ft.com
Introducing: The Story of Money
A new video podcast from The FT exploring the history of finance
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Ivaylo Iaydjiev @iaydjiev.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
Fascinating from @bruegel.org, revisiting a topic that was once very much in the policy focus. Great example of systems thinking, linking trade, fiscal, &, well, competitive stories w/ striking numbers. Lot to chew on for EU, incl that protection alone is not enough. www.bruegel.org/podcast/why-...
bruegel.org
Why are global imbalances rising, and why does it matter?
Is the dollar at risk? Is China the new Germany? How to manage rising external deficits and surpluses
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Ivaylo Iaydjiev @iaydjiev.bsky.social · 22/03/2026
Or, as one of the comments puts it, farce majeure.
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Reposted by Ivaylo Iaydjiev
George Pearkes @peark.es · 19/03/2026
Oh man, the hit at Ras Laffan has taken almost 20% of output (i.e. roughly 3% of global LNG volumes) offline for *3-5 years*.
reuters.com
Exclusive: Iran attack damage wipes out 17% of Qatar’s LNG capacity for three to five years, QatarEnergy CEO says
Iran’s attacks ‌on Qatar have damaged facilities that produce 17% ​of the company’s ​liquefied natural gas export capacity ⁠and it will ​take three to five years ​to repair them, QatarEnergy CEO Saad ...
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Reposted by Ivaylo Iaydjiev
Ben McWilliams @bmcwilliams.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
🆕 📊 Updated data: Our @bruegel.org tracking suggest that the EU as of Q1 2026 has 260 GWh battery cell manufacturing capacity, equivalent to two-thirds of demand. A further 320 GWh are under construction - mostly involving Chinese companies.
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Georg Zachmann @gzachmann.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
In some of Europe's sunniest countries 1 MWh of average solar generation is still worth more than 60 € (HR, BG, RO, HU, GR) and in IT it is worth more than 90€/MWh. (In 2026 it will likely be more.) This compares to maybe 40-50 €/MWh of average cost of utility solar www.bruegel.org/dataset/eu-r...
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Ivaylo Iaydjiev @iaydjiev.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
This strikes me as the right approach to the Industrial Accelerator Act - it is needed (given less-than-fair competition), needs calibration (to not shoot ourselves in the foot w/partners), but is not enough (as structural issues remain). www.bruegel.org/podcast/infl...
bruegel.org
Inflation, Iran and the Industrial Accelerator Act
Klaas Knot and Jeromin Zettelmeyer tackle the key issues facing Europe
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Reposted by Ivaylo Iaydjiev
Anton Spisak @antonspisak.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
Mind-boggling figures on Chinese goods exports for the first two months of this year. Up 21.8% on the previous year. The reasons for this appear to be the forthcoming deadline for export tax rebates on solar panels and batteries. China's industrial policy in one chart!
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Ivaylo Iaydjiev @iaydjiev.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
"Most of the time working groups produce better results than carrier groups. Confabbing, summit-holding and deliberating result in decisions that—when they are eventually taken—have some sort of logic and general buy-in."
economist.com
In times of chaos, Europe is the muddled power the world needs
In praise of the dreaded European working group
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Ivaylo Iaydjiev @iaydjiev.bsky.social · 08/03/2026
"Imagine if...large-scale programme had been funded to produce batteries at scale and install them in...European households" @martinsandbu.ft.com Fun fact, we🇧🇬 decided to use RRF🇪🇺 to support batteries (grid-scale). Today, we have 2 of largest BESS in EU and soon up to 10,000 GWh- all in <4 years.
ft.com
Europe’s impotence extends to energy
The political momentum behind decarbonising the continent’s energy system has dissipated
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Reposted by Ivaylo Iaydjiev
Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 05/03/2026
NEW ANALYSIS: UK emissions fell 2.4% in 2025 as coal fell to a 400-year low. Incredibly, we used less coal last year than than in 1600, when Queen Elizabeth I was on the throne and Shakespeare was writing Hamlet. All the details in our article: www.carbonbrief.org/...
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Nils Redeker @nilsredeker.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
After months of wrangling and an epic list of delays, the Commission has finally released its Industrial Accelerator Act. This could turn into one of the EU’s most consequential industrial policy files in years - and the proposal is honestly not a bad place to start. Some quick thoughts:
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Ivaylo Iaydjiev @iaydjiev.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
Until morale improves.
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Ivaylo Iaydjiev @iaydjiev.bsky.social · 22/02/2026
Actually, we have an example - EU always housed large RU reserves, and leveraged this in 2022 with quite some punch, for geopolitical reasons. Yet, this was very much ad hoc and improvised - needs to be part of a strategy, or at least a shared understanding of the statecraft (EUcraft?) toolbox.
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Ivaylo Iaydjiev @iaydjiev.bsky.social · 22/02/2026
"Europe is better armed for geopolitical conflict than its leaders might think". @martinsandbu.ft.com makes two key points: 1) defense, or resilience, today is not enough; 2) for offence, you need political will to leverage (latent) power. Resilience and response. www.ft.com/content/b92f...
ft.com
It is time for Europe to weaponise its chokepoints
China and others have long been adept at using supply chains to their advantage — the EU should do the same
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Ivaylo Iaydjiev @iaydjiev.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
Now imagine if only there was also an EU safe asset, let's say a bond that is not from a temporary instrument. And imagine this one was added to several tracking indices... Investors pour record sums into European stocks - www.ft.com/content/8017...
ft.com
Investors pour record sums into European stocks
Inflows on track for all-time high in February as global fund managers seek alternatives to expensive US tech shares
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Ivaylo Iaydjiev @iaydjiev.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
One story from Just Transition Fund - we wanted to support cleantech manufacturing in coal transition regions in BG, but this required a long process of justifying why provide capex on something else than SMEs. By the time we got there, some investors had moved on. Plenty you can do with EU funds.
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Ivaylo Iaydjiev @iaydjiev.bsky.social · 16/02/2026
Indeed, "the protection of a big currency bloc" was what (in part) helped to get the euro over the line also in Bulgaria. Add to that the limits of monetary policy in small open economy and you can start building a case - even in Sweden.
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Ivaylo Iaydjiev @iaydjiev.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
To put it another way: is lessening incentives for cross-dossier bargaining in order to facilitate limited progress on some dossiers the best strategy across the board where QMV is the norm? Or is it something to be kept for very specific cases to move behind unanimity? @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social
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Reposted by Ivaylo Iaydjiev
European Central Bank @ecb.europa.eu · 12/02/2026
Speaking at an event in Sofia, Chief Economist Philip R. Lane congratulates Bulgaria on joining the euro area, adding that Bulgaria now has a seat at the table and is helping to shape ECB policymaking. Read his speech www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/da...
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Ivaylo Iaydjiev @iaydjiev.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
Interesting, and slightly provocative, argument by @carloscuerpo.bsky.social . Indeed, the safe asset, EU bonds, already exists - it is just that the stock is not large and that, even worse, is mostly temporary. Curious to see how linking it with the next MFF plays out.
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Marcel Dirsus @marceldirsus.com · 11/02/2026
Quite the chart
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Lucas Guttenberg @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
“Coalitions of the willing” are back in vogue. Internationally, that makes sense. But in the EU context, I don’t buy the hype. In fact, it leads to the wrong conclusions and risks weakening the one institutional framework that actually gives Europe collective power in a world without rules. Thread:
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Ivaylo Iaydjiev @iaydjiev.bsky.social · 16/01/2026
Another data point for the article below - Bulgaria's normally moribund stock exchange has taken off to "World's Best Performance", at least for a short while.
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Ivaylo Iaydjiev @iaydjiev.bsky.social · 31/12/2025
Some (macro)economic thoughts as euro area welcomes a new member at midnight. Bulgaria shows that you can cover convergence criteria and also make people better off, despite challenges. The only way European integration can proceed in a sustainable manner is when it actually delivers for Europeans.
open.substack.com
How to join the euro without austerity: The macroeconomics of Bulgaria's euro accession
A story about a small open economy, seven national elections in five years, a supply-side energy shock, and achieving all the euro convergence criteria.
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Daniel Drezner @dandrezner.bsky.social · 31/12/2025
If it’s December 31st, that means it’s time for the Albies! danieldrezner.substack.com/p/the-best-w...
danieldrezner.substack.com
The Best Work on Political Economy in 2025
Presenting the 17th annual Albies!
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Ivaylo Iaydjiev @iaydjiev.bsky.social · 22/12/2025
Eurobonds, as part of a diversified funding strategy, are here to stay - it is not "just" #NextGenerationEU
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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 18/12/2025
D-Day for Europe to shore up Ukraine funding. As EU leaders huddle in Brussels, Stephen Paduano and I analyse the reparations loan in a new piece. This is not only a "There Is No Alternative" (TINA) moment—but the financial and legal risks are also manageable. 1/ www.cer.eu/insights/ukr...
cer.eu
The Ukraine Reparations Loan: How to fix Europe's financial plumbing
As US support for Ukraine vanishes, Europe must overcome Belgian opposition and improvise fiscally to provide Kyiv with €210 billion.
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Nicolas Veron @veron.bsky.social · 13/12/2025
A great primer by @olena-havrylchyk.bsky.social on securities depositories including Euroclear, recommended reading for whoever want to understand the issues underlying the Immobilized Russian Reserves saga www.ifri.org/en/studies/c...
ifri.org
Central Securities Depositories and Geopolitical Risks: Challenges for European Policy
Central Securities Depositories (CSDs) form the backbone of financial market infrastructure by registering securities, settling trades, distributing cash flows, and managing collateral. While often regarded as mere financial “plumbing,” they in fact underpin strategic objectives such as advancing the Savings and Investment Union, curbing tax evasion, and reinforcing Europe’s geopolitical stance.
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Ivaylo Iaydjiev @iaydjiev.bsky.social · 13/12/2025
"The EU has the money and mechanisms to make the reparations loan happen". Indeed. Excellent oped identifying the limits of risks & how layered guarantees via EIB & ESM can help. Financials are clear. Politics need to urgently follow. @blavatnikschool.bsky.social www.ft.com/content/7e70...
ft.com
How to guarantee Ukraine’s ‘reparations loan’
An everything-all-at-once solution
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 09/12/2025
China's trade surplus appears on track to top US$1trn this year • China’s exports to the US have were down by 29% year on year in November amid tariffs and tensions • However, Chinese shipments to other regions - notably south-east Asia - keep growing rapidly www.ft.com/content/b9bf...
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Ivaylo Iaydjiev @iaydjiev.bsky.social · 18/11/2025
You know, maybe once in a while you can actually see a bubble in real time. #ThisTimeIsDifferent
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Nils Redeker @nilsredeker.bsky.social · 23/10/2025
The car crisis tops today’s EU summit but leaders keep staring at the wrong problem The issue isn’t the 2035 engine ban - it’s demand falling off a cliff today With @sandertordoir.bsky.social and @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social, we show why flipping regs won’t help - and what the EU can do instead.
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Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 13/10/2025
Breaking news: The 2025 Nobel Prize for Economics has been awarded to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt for their work explaining how innovation can drive economic growth. on.ft.com/3WEvVZq
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Ivaylo Iaydjiev @iaydjiev.bsky.social · 11/10/2025
"Given that national governments form the backbone of the eu, “blaming Brussels” is akin to a ventriloquist haranguing his own puppet for being foul-mouthed" “Brussels” is the phantom menace Europe loves to blame www.economist.com/europe/2025/...
economist.com
“Brussels” is the phantom menace Europe loves to blame
Why bashing the EU is likely to become ever more popular
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