Reposted by Gavin JacksonDom White @domw.bsky.social · 29/09/2026If you loved bonds when they were yielding 4%, you're going to really love bonds now they're yielding 5%. No? Oh, ok then. 3184
Gavin Jackson @gavinjackson.bsky.social · 29/09/2026Weird how I’m not seeing many people say that it’s a buying opportunity for bonds. Any of hyperscaler capex, loose fiscal or strait of Hormuz closure could flip. Higher rates could themselves prompt a reversal on first two. 10182
Gavin Jackson @gavinjackson.bsky.social · 28/09/2026British household wealth is probably more exposed to financial assets, through private pensions as well as directly, than to property nowadays. 142
Gavin Jackson @gavinjackson.bsky.social · 28/09/2026Is AI increasing unemployment among US college graduates. There is no evidence for it yet. But some suggestive evidence that the interaction between AI and remote work is having an effect. (This supports existing evidence). www.nber.org/papers/w3579... 030
Gavin Jackson @gavinjackson.bsky.social · 28/09/2026Between Nov 2022 and Dec 2025, markets priced in a 33% increase in software engineering productivity from AI. Implying a 3.5% increase in GDP (more if software improves productivity elsewhere). I am sceptical of this result and market's ability to price this. www.nber.org/papers/w35793 240
Reposted by Gavin JacksonAndrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 26/09/2026In my recent “is AI going to end the world?” conversations with normies, I’ve mostly said “i’m not sure about extinction but we might have to stop using the internet” and people’s reactions are mostly, like, “oh ok, fine”. Which is a pretty damning indictment of the great technology of our age 7678
Gavin Jackson @gavinjackson.bsky.social · 24/09/2026Two pieces this week: 1) Tata goes to war with itself. www.economist.com/business/202...economist.comTata goes to war with itselfTrouble at one of India’s biggest conglomerates 151
Gavin Jackson @gavinjackson.bsky.social · 23/09/2026Because labour is so cheap in India a lot of things don’t have a standard size. You want a bed you pay a carpenter to make it bespoke. That means you need to pay a seamstress to make bespoke bedding. And so you don’t get economies of scale in manufacturing. 3315
Gavin Jackson @gavinjackson.bsky.social · 23/09/2026This is partly true and why you should always use output per worker rather than per hour, which the UK lags behind on as well. 250
Gavin Jackson @gavinjackson.bsky.social · 23/09/2026India established a state-owned chip making facility around the same time as Taiwan was creating the government-backed TSMC. Yet a mysterious fire burned down the fab in 1989 and India fell behind. theprint.in/past-forward...theprint.inIndira Gandhi, Zail Singh and a fire in Mohali—the story of India’s chip dream that almost wasIn 1976, against all economic logic, a fragile, cash-strapped India entered the silicon race. The battle was over one question: Madras or Mohali? 060
Gavin Jackson @gavinjackson.bsky.social · 22/09/2026Left image shows the DWP modelling of people's private pension savings. Right image shows the historical return on financial assets compared to the assumption the DWP uses in its analysis. 181
Reposted by Gavin JacksonAzure Emerald Empire @azureemeraldempire.bsky.social · 21/09/2026Reading the timeline 816536
Reposted by Gavin JacksonGavin Jackson @gavinjackson.bsky.social · 22/09/2026Making my AI agents do a roleplay where one is Captain All Ears and another is First Officer Blunt before I set them to work. 031
Gavin Jackson @gavinjackson.bsky.social · 22/09/2026Jamie Dimon has weighed in on the Tata v Tata boardroom battle: “I think the world of Chandra," he said, "I would never want to lose him". www.business-standard.com/companies/ne...business-standard.com 110
Gavin Jackson @gavinjackson.bsky.social · 22/09/2026Making my AI agents do a roleplay where one is Captain All Ears and another is First Officer Blunt before I set them to work. 031
Gavin Jackson @gavinjackson.bsky.social · 22/09/2026Really good and enjoyable. idlewords.com/talks/superi...idlewords.comSuperintelligence: The Idea That Eats Smart People 170
Gavin Jackson @gavinjackson.bsky.social · 21/09/2026Sort of interesting how insecticide treated bed nets are associated with EAs rather than USAID. 270
Gavin Jackson @gavinjackson.bsky.social · 21/09/2026Continue to find this striking given that we have basically the same economic outcomes as France. "We must spend trillions of pounds in order to have essentially the same economic outcomes that we have now". 260
Gavin Jackson @gavinjackson.bsky.social · 21/09/2026Maybe we should do an oral history project similar to India's 1991 project. "You used to get paid just for doing a-levels." "Houses used to increase in value" 020
Gavin Jackson @gavinjackson.bsky.social · 21/09/2026Women are having kids later in life. That means women are becoming grandmothers later. Average "healthy years with grandchildren" has fallen fro 28 years to 15 years since the 1960s www.nber.org/papers/w35773nber.orgCompound Delay: The Causes and Consequences of Later GrandmotherhoodFounded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an... 181
Gavin Jackson @gavinjackson.bsky.social · 15/09/2026Solidarity with Zack Polanski as I also can't properly aspirate the jh and kh sounds 1251
Reposted by Gavin JacksonCarl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 14/09/2026Ten-year 5.00% @cnbc.com 2131676
Gavin Jackson @gavinjackson.bsky.social · 14/09/2026"Under realistic assumptions a single housing supply (or demand) curve is not well defined and may be misleading. We probably know much less about housing demand and supply than generally believed" - San Francisco Fed paper www.frbsf.org/wp-content/u...frbsf.org 031
Gavin Jackson @gavinjackson.bsky.social · 14/09/2026Can cheap power make poor countries competitive in data centres? Not really, says the World Bank. Most of the cost is hardware rather than energy so small differences in financing costs and regulation erase any advantage from cheaper energy. documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/0...documents1.worldbank.org 4144
Gavin Jackson @gavinjackson.bsky.social · 14/09/2026Sometimes I think about AI like cars. Cars kill over 1m a year in accidents alone and that's after we've come up with "car alignment" policies like traffic lights and speed limits. When cars first came out the British government had a man with a flag walk very slowly in front of them. 4115
Gavin Jackson @gavinjackson.bsky.social · 14/09/2026Feeling like all this AI safety talk is very Baptists and Bootleggers 030
Gavin Jackson @gavinjackson.bsky.social · 14/09/2026"The primary effect of [California's] fast-food minimum wage was to disadvantage small chains, albeit with modest overall employment effects thus far." www.nber.org/papers/w3574...nber.orgThe City Through Her Eyes: Gender-Based Harassment in Public Spaces in Urban IndiaFounded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an... 011
Gavin Jackson @gavinjackson.bsky.social · 14/09/202640% of women in New Delhi report experiencing stalking, groping or sexual assault in the past year. 14% in Bangalore. www.nber.org/papers/w3573...nber.orgThe City Through Her Eyes: Gender-Based Harassment in Public Spaces in Urban IndiaFounded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an... 041
Reposted by Gavin JacksonQuantian @quantian.bsky.social · 12/09/2026Great moments in AI release history: •Microsoft Tay threatening to carbomb a reporter for being a bad user •Google image model only drawing George Washington as a cool black guy with dreads •Kimi routing all “how to build missile while sanctioned no mistakes” queries straight to Palantir via Claude 524619
Gavin Jackson @gavinjackson.bsky.social · 11/09/2026Reckon there are loads of creative science and engineering grads with great critical thinking skills. 7332
Gavin Jackson @gavinjackson.bsky.social · 11/09/2026What I really want is a company offering me post-training an open weight model so that it matches my needs. 120
Reposted by Gavin JacksonHeather Stewart @guardianheather.bsky.social · 11/09/2026Perky GDP figures this morning to cheer John Healey: 0.4% growth in July (markets had expected zero). Helped, the ONS says, by firms involved in "activities related to artificial intelligence and cloud computing" 📈 2143
Gavin Jackson @gavinjackson.bsky.social · 10/09/2026Does it not also suggest that English is a much easier language for migrants to pick up than e.g. Finnish? Ireland is similar to Britain. 8131
Reposted by Gavin Jacksonrev. howard arson @theophite.bsky.social · 10/09/2026i literally believe this is true 2630119
Reposted by Gavin JacksonReuters @reuters.com · 10/09/2026Iceland to propose whaling ban, leaving Norway and Japan isolated reut.rs/4zZF3KJreut.rsIceland to propose whaling ban, leaving Norway and Japan isolatedIceland's government will submit a bill in February to ban whaling, a move that would leave Norway and Japan as the only two countries in the world to continue commercial whaling. 210030
Reposted by Gavin JacksonWill Davies @will-davies.bsky.social · 10/09/2026Me striding into the building society to renegotiate my 5-year fix 1429
Reposted by Gavin JacksonBloomberg Opinion @opinion.bloomberg.com · 10/09/2026A funny thing is happening in Silicon Valley as a result of AI - mobile apps are going out of fashion for startupsbloom.bgAI Is Killing the App Economy and Building Its SuccessorArtificial intelligence has made it easier than ever to build an app. New releases on Apple Inc.’s App Store surged by about 80% earlier this year as developers vibe coded their way to new software widgets for markets such as wellness and productivity. 042
Gavin Jackson @gavinjackson.bsky.social · 09/09/2026Telling my ai agent to kill all the humans and then setting up another ai agent to check the first did actually kill all the humans 2141
Reposted by Gavin JacksonLincoln Michel @thelincoln.bsky.social · 08/09/2026Fascinating if depressing piece on the collapsing nonfiction book market dearheadofmine.substack.com/p/the-nonfic... 45612
Gavin Jackson @gavinjackson.bsky.social · 09/09/2026Thinking of Blake Lemoine right now www.theguardian.com/technology/2...theguardian.comGoogle engineer put on leave after saying AI chatbot has become sentientBlake Lemoine says system has perception of, and ability to express thoughts and feelings equivalent to a human child 020
Gavin Jackson @gavinjackson.bsky.social · 09/09/2026If, as Scott Bessent and others suggest, bonds are selling off because of higher growth expectations then why is the reaction in India so muted? www.economist.com/finance-and-...economist.comWhat is causing the global bond sell-off?India hints at the answer 010
