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fencer13.bsky.social

@fencer13.bsky.social
204 followers 74 following 29 posts
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Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 59m
A real welfare state and universal health care require broad taxation, including the middle class. But high end wealth taxation is the kind of tax that protects democracy and the rule of law, and prevents aristocratic dynasties. It keeps us human.
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Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 1h
New working paper: the Norwegian wealth tax was a huge success. The "exodus" of wealthy people never happened (less than 100 individuals left). Tax revenue increased by 71.5%. No changes in business activity or investment. www.nber.org/papers/w35854
Taxing Entrepreneurial Wealth: Evidence from
Norway, 2021-2025
Marius A. K. Ring
WORKING PAPER 35854|
DOl 10.3386/w35854
ISSUE DATE October 2026
Whether imposing higher taxes on business owners adversely affects business activity by constraining investment and inducing capitalist flight is a central question in the ongoing debate on how to tax the ultra wealthy. To shed new light, I exploit a series of related Norwegian reforms during 2021-2024 that increased dividend tax rates, removed migration-related capital gains tax loopholes, and nearly doubled the effective marginal tax rate on business wealth. These reforms spurred international debate and, allegedly, an "exodus" of Norwegian billionaires (Financial Times,
2023). While I document clear effects on migration, these responses are concentrated among the top 0.1% of the wealth distribution and mostly confined to 2022 and 2023. My results indicate that at most 100 individuals left due to the reforms. I find no evidence of significant outmigration or reduced inflows of startup founders or inventors. I estimate that absent any outmigration, wealth tax revenues would have increased by 75% from 2021 to 2024. Reform-driven outmigration lowers the revenue gain to 71.5%. My findings further show that outmigrating owners' firms remain economically active and do not reduce investment. In a broader set of analyses, I examine whether business outcomes are affected, regardless of whether owners outmigrate, since firms may reduce investment both due to liquidity constraints or distortions to owners' savings decisions. I compare firms owned by Norwegian individuals subject to the wealth tax with firms owned by foreigners and other tax-exempt entities. By merging historical ownership data from Orbis with the Norwegian shareholder register, I perform these analyses on both Norwegian and foreign-domiciled firms.
Across settings, I find no evidence that Norwegian-owned firms pay out more dividends or invest less after the reforms,…
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Glonzo the Bureaucrat 🇬🇱 🌹 @snarkranger.bsky.social · 2h
I am sick and tired of seeing this shit. DOGE was not a "missed opportunity," it was an intentional effort by billionaire oligarchs to destroy the federal government's capacity to do good things for the American people.
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Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 13h
The people who told you that Democrats must Only Talk about Kitchen Table Issues and not the Authoritarianism were deeply unserious (not least because this is a false dichotomy) & we should benchmark this when they give advice now & in 2028.
11/18/24 post: pundits and Dem hopefuls insisting Dems must talk only about kitchen table issues
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Raffi Melkonian @rmfifthcircuit.bsky.social · 22h
I hope I'm wrong, that he collapses into even more of a wreck than he is, but I think he's going to flail around in an especially reckless and dangerous way, whether it's against the press or votes he doesn't like or perceived enemies abroad. Anyway, yes, I'm a cheerful guy, what.
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Raffi Melkonian @rmfifthcircuit.bsky.social · 22h
I've been saying to people - and thought I'd plant my flag on this - that the time after the democrats win next month is going to be an especially dangerous one for Trump's opponents of all kinds. He is going to *flip out.*
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Micah @rincewind.run · 23h
like, this isn’t even an “AI could create that much value” versus “no it can’t” argument - let’s grant the premise, let’s say it does in that world, with these people in charge, unemployment and poverty explode and no safety net is built to handle it
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Micah @rincewind.run · 23h
you’re not letting us work three days a week, you’re all going to start competing for who has the most trillions of dollars instead of billions of dollars while spending significant portions of it to make sure that any taxes that could be used to that end never come to pass
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Micah @rincewind.run · 23h
the reason “AI will create so much abundance we will have a utopian society” rhetoric falls so flat is that the people building it will never, ever share their bounty unless it is taken from them and we all know it
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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
In a political system where companies can be gouged for unlimited cash, inconsistent application of the law is a powerful financial opportunity. At some point some of these companies might realize they are better off under a predictable and impartial legal system rather than a personalist one.
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Max Berger @maxberger.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
The entire MAGA project is about blaming the problems created by billionaires on anyone but the billionaires.
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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
The head of the Fraud Task Force unaware of corruption inside the Trump administration, despite it being widely covered in the media. All by design: The Public Integrity unit in DOJ was gutted and has been told to focus on welfare fraud in blue states. donmoynihan.substack.com/p/stop-paper...
The unit is hiring again to focus on “how politicians and state officials facilitate the misuse of taxpayer dollars.” That sounds good — until you realize what this actually means is they plan to go after blue state officials for allegations of welfare fraud. Trump’s circle will remain safe. After all, his former defense lawyer runs the DOJ now.
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Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
One simple way to see that neither the GOP nor the national media really cares about THE DEBT & only pretends to when Democrats propose spending on left-coded domestic policies is that neither CNN nor anyone else in the media is asking “How can we afford that?” about this incredible waste.
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Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
The option of not moving on from "this is an illegal, unconstitutional outrage that should end his presidency immediately" was available to Peter Baker & every other journalist in the country, not only in 2019, but still in 2026.
publicnotice.co
“Neither our media nor our political system is designed to deal with a far right authoritarian party”
Mark Copelovitch unpacks his signature phrase.
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mtsw @mtsw.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
imagine if the mainstream media covered Republicans' number one donor — the biggest political donor in US history! — and his controversial views with as much scrutiny as they covered Hasan Piker's
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Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
this is effectively a new $100k tax on international students, and will destroy the market. Which is killing the golden goose -- higher ed is one of the most successful exports the US produces
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Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
14 years of GOP presidents & 12 of unified GOP Congress in the 21st century. Not once did we get masthead editorials like 👇, let alone op-eds, Substacks, podcasts & Takes™️ from Ezra Douthglesias & co. about how The Republicans must do an Abundance of Popularism, let alone basic competent government.
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Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 20/01/2025
I think it was @jamellebouie.net who said, amidst the Hunter Biden Pardon Hysteria, that the media knows how to make something a scandal when it wants to. I get why it doesn't w/ most things, but "destroy NATO & the post-1945 territorial conquest taboo" seemed to clear the bar. I was naively wrong.
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Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
You could have covered & not stopped covering "we will invade our NATO allies" as a presidency-ending scandal. You could have covered & not stopped covering the open monetization of the presidency as an outrageous presidency-ending scandal. See also: all the rest. You decide this all the time:
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Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
The main lesson of the last 25 years of the GOP holding power is that they are totally incompetent at governing & everything breaks & many people die as a result (Katrina, wars, Covid, ICE, etc). Ask yourself if that ever appears as the central frame in media coverage of politics & the two parties.
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Micah @rincewind.run · 05/10/2026
I mean, it’s an incentive thing right now companies, even ones who aren’t ideologically aligned with the GOP, do believe the GOP will fuck them over for not going along and they don’t believe Dems will impose consequences for that you’ve gotta change that, executives need to think twice
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Evan Sutton @evansutton.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
This money is absolutely meaningless to Elon Musk, but it has the potential to completely rewrite your future. He's spent over $36 million in about 4 weeks, and he's adding millions a day. All to corrupt our government to push his agenda. Let your friends know what's up.
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jamelle @jamellebouie.net · 07/10/2026
who knows if jackson can win this thing but i am glad that he is making clear that susan collins's whole scam is to do everything she can to make life worse for mainers and then take credit for mitigating it in the slightest way possible
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Kevin M. Kruse @kevinmkruse.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
Congress has the power to do pretty much whatever it wants with the Supreme Court. It can expand the membership of the court, and it can punish it in several ways too. We simply need to fill that Congress with a Democratic majority that has the will to use that power.
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Brian Beutler @brianbeutler.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Wrote this in a fit of annoyance. www.offmessage.net/p/the-man-in...
offmessage.net
The Man In The Arena: A Play In One Act
In which a party professional explains how winning works.
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Dave Karpf @davekarpf.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Also: many of those same pundits think they are "data-driven" because they survey voters and conduct focus groups. That's so damn quaint. Trump's wealthiest allies purchased all the largest social media platforms+all the largest mainstream media outlets. Focus groups CANNOT measure those effects.
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Dave Karpf @davekarpf.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
I'm just gonna bookmark this for future reference when Dem pundits complain about how the party has trouble communicating its message to voters. The reason you keep running into trouble with your branding isn't campus radicals. The reason is that your opponents purchased all the media outlets.
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Nick Carnes @carnes.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
The real reason working-class people almost never become politicians anywhere is that running for office is extremely personally burdensome, and that screens out the people who live the most precarious lives, including working-class people.
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mtsw @mtsw.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Saying he'd be cool with Iran nuking my home city is pretty bad but not quite as bad as when Hillary said some trump supporters were deplorable so I can see why the media turned the latter into a major scandal and not the former
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Joel S. @joelhs.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Seems like if you're going to make a national story out of Hasan Piker, who campaigned a few times with the Democratic Senate candidate in Michigan, saying Israel causes antisemitism, you should also make a national story out of the favorite intellectual of the US Vice President supporting Hitler.
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Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Congrats again to the New York Times on its long form journalism
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Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
“Moderate” Democrats like Tammy Duckworth & Rahm Emanuel are already laying the ground for this exact scenario with their “don’t impeach anyone & just get back to work” messaging.
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Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Absent major institutional reforms that turn us into a multiparty democracy, totally transform SCOTUS, & significantly rein in the imperial presidency, this is the <best case> scenario of what is going to happen. Other, more permanent authoritarian scenarios are also possible.
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Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Unprecedented corruption, happening every day, right in front of us. A constitutional order that cannot end & severely punish this is not really worth saving. We need massive institutional reform.
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Alejandra Caraballo @esqueer.net · 05/10/2026
The Dems need to viciously attack every power and money center for the conservative movement. Eliminate car dealership monopolies, enact wealth taxes on billionaires, eliminate citizens United, crack down on crypto, and bring silicon Valley to heel.
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Alejandra Caraballo @esqueer.net · 05/10/2026
If the Democrats win, they have to be ready to bring generational change. Reform the courts, eliminate the filibuster, expand the house, admit DC and Puerto Rico as states, pass a new voting rights act, and prosecute every single corrupt member of the Trump admin.
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Alejandra Caraballo @esqueer.net · 05/10/2026
If Democrats think winning back congress this year and the presidency in 2028 is enough, they are sorely mistaken. We'll be right back where we're at in 2032 with an even more fascist and white supremacist Republican party. It's not enough to win power.
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Spook-ass, Christ oh boo! boo! @loukas.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Politics these days is a turnout game, which means it's an enthusiasm game, which is yet another reason why triangulation isn't a method fit for purpose for the modern centre-left.
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Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
This is exactly the same as "We shouldn't do impeachment because it will fail." You impeach. And then you do it again. And then you do it again. And you make the far right authoritarian party block it in the Senate, again and again.
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Gillian Branstetter @gbbranstetter.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Trump-appointed head of DOJ's civil rights office wondering why the most powerful women in Washington are primarily on the left when the current vogue in right wing politics is debating the merits of the 19th Amendment
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Nicholas Grossman @nicholasgrossman.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Exposing Trump's scheme to illegally withhold aid to coerce Ukraine into lying to help Trump's reelection got the aid released. Important point. I don't know how some Dems talked themselves into thinking the best way to counter criminality is to let it slide, rather than investigate and expose it.
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Chance the Lawyer @chancethelawyer.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
I’m concerned he’s not going to take this well and we have set up bad market practice around what norms we have allowed to be rampantly trod upon. Also he’s turning DC into a literal bunker but I’m sure it’s fine.
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Kevin M. Kruse @kevinmkruse.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Just a reminder that these Haitian immigrants in Springfield -- who came here legally, did everything they were asked to do and more -- became a target of federal crackdowns because the white nationalist vice president shamelessly spread racist lies about them.
rollingstone.com
J.D. Vance Defends False Claims Against Haitians: 'If I Have to Create Stories… That's What I'm Going to Do'
J.D. Vance defended his debunked claims that Haitian immigrants are eating pets in Springfield, Ohio.
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Seth Cotlar @sethcotlar.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Can confirm. This, for example, was at the top of my “for you” feed when I logged in to find an old post the other day.
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8:36 AM • 10/1/26 • 458K Views
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Max Kennerly @maxkennerly.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Best part of this muddled article by one of Bloomberg's money guys is that two of the charts make a compelling case that knee-jerk opposition to AI is wholly justified because technological progress doesn't increase productivity, it just enables greater income extraction by capital. Oops!
Productivity Growth Has Been Stuck Below Its Postwar Pace for 50 YearsWorkers’ Slice Shrinks, Profits’ Slice Grows
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ceej @ceej.online · 04/10/2026
“how do we win back trump voters in 2026” we don’t. we create an environment where admitting to voting for trump is so socially embarrassing as to render them completely inert. you don’t “win back” trump voters. you demoralize them into staying home. you make it a dunce cap
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lauren @lauren.rotatingsandwiches.com · 03/10/2026
I worry in the next few years we're all going to have to have some patient, complicated conversations with older or less media-engaged relatives who see the le epic trump takedown posts but do not stuff like this about who Gavin Newsom Really Is
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roterote @roterote.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
For a very clear comparison, emulating Magyar would be removing all the MAGA justices and judges from Federal Courts in the first 100 days. That is the scale of democratic chemotherapy we are discussing.
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roterote @roterote.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
The US Democrats need to look at their next Presidency as an endless sprint to obliterate MAGA, every day for years. Until the cancer is gone then there should be no time wasted on MAGA tears or conciliation. Only endless justice and rebuilding the democracy. Govern like every day is the last day.
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roterote @roterote.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
The Magyar government understands if they let up then Fidesz and Orban will regroup like the Brasilian Far Right did and can come right back in. So they have to move with intense endless purpose to cut out the cancer of Orban. Because five years is not much time to reverse it all & clock’s ticking.
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