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Reposted by El

The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 09/07/2026

Folks, a *very* exciting announcement: The Downballot has just published updated 2024 presidential results by congressional district for every state with a new map this year! That's 10 states in all, covering a full one-third of the House. Please dive in!

the-downballot.com

The Downballot releases presidential results for every new House district, sponsored by Grassroots Analytics

10 state have new maps for the midterms. We have data for all of them.

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El @elemental13.bsky.social · 01/07/2026

Is there a full tally for across the entire 2026 cycle so far?

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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 12/06/2026

One board member said the FBI approached some without warrants. “They had agents all across the state going to civil rights leaders and community leaders’ doors intimidating them, coming and demanding that they talk about literally anything they would ask.” “Just straight-up intimidation tactics.”

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Jeff Singer @jeffsinger.bsky.social · 04/06/2026

Or as stephenwolf.bsky.social has demonstrated, Democrats can counter Republican gerrymandering AND respect the VRA. www.nytimes.com/2026/06/04/u...

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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

The NYT's maps would hurt Black voters & are de facto GOP gerrymanders. The whole premise is flawed. It’s nonsensical that Dems would 𝘭𝘰𝘴𝘦 a seat with "colorblind" nonpartisan maps—the GOP gerrymandered every state here except for AL & LA. Here's how nonpartisan maps might actually look. [Thread]

A graphic comparing two congressional district maps for eight Southern states shown side by side.

On the left side are supposedly "colorblind" and "party-blind" maps that The New York Times' Nate Cohn drew by computer algorithms based only on two factors, compactness and limiting splits to counties and cities. The Republican majority in each state would be:

Alabama: 6-1
Florida: 21-7
Georgia: 8-6
Louisiana: 5-1
Mississippi: 4-0
North Carolina: 9-5
South Carolina: 6-1
Tennessee: 7-2
Total: 66-23

Cohn's maps purport to be nonpartisan, and he claims Black voters would have just as much voting power without gerrymandering or Voting Rights Act districts as they did with the current maps that included Voting Rights Act-protected districts. However, on his maps, Democrats would lose one seat overall for just 23 total, and several majority-Black districts would be eliminated while he claims Black Democrats could win several crossover districts thanks to white Democratic voters.
On the right are maps drawn by The Downballot's Stephen Wolf using a broad range of nonpartisan criteria, which include communities of interest—defined by shared culture, history, demographics, economics, etc.—natural geography, limiting splits to counties and cities, and compactness. These maps comply with the Voting Rights Act and state constitutional requirements.

The 2024 election likely would have resulted in the following delegations for each state:
Alabama: 5 Republicans, 2 Democrats
Florida: 17 Republicans, 11 Democrats
Georgia: 7 Republicans, 7 Democrats
Louisiana: 4 Republicans, 2 Democrats
Mississippi: 3 Republicans, 1 Democrat
North Carolina: 7 Republicans, 7 Democrats
South Carolina: 5 Republicans, 2 Democrats
Tennessee: 7 Republicans, 2 Democrats
Total: 55 Republicans, 34 Democrats

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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 15/05/2026

ABC News has now taken all FiveThirtyEight articles completely offline. They now redirect to abcnews dot com.politics. A needless erasure of thousands of pages of knowledge.

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Marc Elias @marcelias.bsky.social · 07/05/2026

At this point, I think he is just trolling us.

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El @elemental13.bsky.social · 02/05/2026

is there a DRA link to the proposed map?

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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

NEW: Virginia just passed a law to join the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, giving it 222 of 270 electoral votes needed to activate. This map and spreadsheet show which states could join to activate it by 2028 depending on the outcome of the 2026 elections docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

Electoral College cartogram showing which states are in the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact and which ones could join in time for it to activate by 2028. Each state is sized and labeled according to its number of electoral votes. The states are spaced out enough to accommodate the changes in size but retain their general shapes and relative positions on the map.

Current members are in solid orange, potential members are in light green, and nonmembers that are unlikely to join are in medium gray. Members have 222 electoral votes, potential states have 68, and the unlikely states have 248. The compact would only activate once states with at least 270 electoral votes have joined.

The seven potential members and their electoral vote are Alaska (3), Arizona (11), Michigan (15), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), Pennsylvania (19), and Wisconsin (10). Democrats would need to gain the governor's office and/or legislative chambers to win unified power in these states, as detailed in the spreadsheet linked in this post.

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El @elemental13.bsky.social · 13/02/2026

the fact that this was angus taylor's official wikipedia page for a bit is hilarious to me

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God @thegodshow.com · 10/02/2026

They are not going to stop until you stop them.

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50501: The People’s Movement ❌👑 @50501movement.bsky.social · 31/01/2026

🚨 WE NEED YOUR HELP!!! 🚨 One of our volunteers, Noah, a veteran who has been doing work as a medic in MN, was arrested and is being held without bail. Please call his reps using the call script!

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El @elemental13.bsky.social · 24/01/2026

This doesn't seem very consistent to me

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Brent Toderian @brenttoderian.bsky.social · 18/12/2025

I regularly get asked if I’m hopeful. Or optimistic. My answer is always the same. What I am, is determined.

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David Nir @davidnir.com · 05/12/2025

It's good—very good, and very important—that district courts keep issuing these 100-page rulings upholding the law. It must be incredibly dispiriting to see them overturned in a two-page, lawless, unsigned order, but please, keep them coming. They expose SCOTUS' corruption like nothing else.

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Astreia @redoubters.bsky.social · 05/12/2025

It is actually pretty impressive how the worst elected Dem is still better than the best elected R. Like, can I actually think of any currently elected Rs that Fetterman is worse than? I don't know that I can!

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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 03/11/2025

We obsessively track overlooked elections all year so that we can bring you special reports like this one—our guide to the top races of 2025. We go way beyond NJ/VA/CA/NYC to highlight races in PA, NH, GA, ME, TX, and more! Find our complete preview of 40 top races here -->

the-downballot.com

The Downballot's 2025 election preview

We go way beyond Virginia and New Jersey to spotlight dozens of races nationwide

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El @elemental13.bsky.social · 14/10/2025

Current 2025-2026 Predictions

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Ninjaman285 @ninjaman285.bsky.social · 11/07/2025

Can we just take a moment to appreciate Adam Dib for composing some of the most beautiful pieces of music in Dragons Rising so far

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El @elemental13.bsky.social · 19/03/2025

Current House Prediction

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El @elemental13.bsky.social · 15/03/2025

JB pritzker has completely turned his public opinion around

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El @elemental13.bsky.social · 14/03/2025

does this mean he's voting yes or no

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El @elemental13.bsky.social · 05/03/2025

is there a chance 538 could continue independently or be bought by someone else? Under a different name if need be

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El @elemental13.bsky.social · 04/03/2025

Fun Fact: In the last 100 years. The median loss for the incumbent party in a midterm year has been 22 house seats and 4.5 senate seats (I rounded down) Here's what that would look like in 2026

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El @elemental13.bsky.social · 27/02/2025

This is what I think the current state of the 2026 house elections look like Lighter colored districts are battlegrounds

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El @elemental13.bsky.social · 17/02/2025

Hopefully the Dems will be able to gain more in the state legislature and retain their supreme court seat this year (maybe the federal house map will get redrawn too)

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El @elemental13.bsky.social · 17/02/2025

Jesus that’s intense What changed that allowed for it to start to be undone?

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El @elemental13.bsky.social · 17/02/2025

What happened in those two states? Was it the excessive republican gerrymandering or was there more

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gg @ggold328.bsky.social · 15/02/2025

i am not doom scrolling, i am annihilationmaxxing

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El @elemental13.bsky.social · 10/02/2025

Thank you both for your amazing work, I’m glad to have you as my senators

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El @elemental13.bsky.social · 10/02/2025

@edmarkey.bsky.social @warren.senate.gov I heard you wanted to hear his the new admin had been affecting people’s lives. my life as a trans American has gotten substantially more dangerous and I’ve had to reevaluate my future. I’m going to start saving a lot more money in case of a recession as well

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El @elemental13.bsky.social · 07/02/2025

Why haven’t they faced it since 1989?

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El @elemental13.bsky.social · 07/02/2025

she'll give him a stern talking to, that'll teach him!!!

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Aubrey Gilleran @aubreygilleran.bsky.social · 06/02/2025

My critique is that Jeffries should call out the most vulnerable swing-district Republicans by name: Gabe Evans, Mariannette Miller-Meeks, Don Bacon, Mike Lawler, Ryan Mackenzie, etc. Get voters to flood their phones and show up at their offices.

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El @elemental13.bsky.social · 06/02/2025

i used to say charlie baker was my favorite republican (still worse than many dems) because of what he did as governor. now i dont like him anymore

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Senator Patty Murray @murray.senate.gov · 05/02/2025

I just came off the floor after speaking for an hour. I refuse to let Republicans confirm Russ Vought the easy way, so we're holding the floor through the night for 30 straight hours. Vought has shown he'll ignore the law & constitution. I'll be voting NO tomorrow.

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El @elemental13.bsky.social · 05/02/2025

What should I say when calling my congresspeople if they are progressives and have been consistently doing the right thing. Elizabeth Warren and Ed Markey are my senators

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Maxwell Frost @maxwellfrost.bsky.social · 04/02/2025

We were just told that they won’t let us in. They are denying entry to 2 dozen members of Congress. Elon Musk has all our private information & we have no idea what he’s doing with it. This is happening completely behind closed doors. HELL NO. It’s illegal. We demand oversight!

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Alaina Wood @thegarbagequeen.bsky.social · 03/02/2025

I want less “we’ve got to do something” posts from elected officials and more actually doing something about it.

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Alaina Wood @thegarbagequeen.bsky.social · 14/01/2025

Climate deniers are in the minority here in the United States, but it doesn’t feel that way because big oil has an army of bots and trolls that flood social media with denial, delay, and doom.

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👻 Dead Chachra 💀 @debcha.bsky.social · 09/01/2025

Occasional reminder that there’s no, “it’s too late, its over” for anthropogenic climate change. Every molecule of CO2 that doesn’t go into the atmosphere makes a difference. Preventing 0.1 degree of warming makes a difference. Every bit of climate resilience we build together makes a difference.

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El @elemental13.bsky.social · 09/01/2025

Tilt states have an odd number of votes

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