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Reposted by David Beard

Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

NEW: The 2026 elections in most states will decide which party runs elections heading into 2028 (see map). We detail how Democrats could hold or gain this power in 14 potentially competitive states—and form a bulwark against MAGA subverting the 2028 elections www.the-downballot.com/p/voters-can...

Map of the United States titled "2026 Elections That Will Decide Which Party Runs Elections," with the subtitle "Includes secretaries of state and other elected offices where relevant." Source: The Downballot. States are colored by incumbent party.

Democratic (blue), 14 states: Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Vermont.

Republican (red), 18 states: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, and Wyoming.

Bipartisan (yellow), 4 states: Hawaii, Illinois, New York, and Wisconsin.
Not up in 2026 (gray), 14 states: Delaware, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, North Carolina, Oregon, Tennessee, Utah, Virginia, Washington, and West Virginia.

Footnotes: Illinois and Wisconsin have Democratic secretaries of state who do not run elections. Pennsylvania's Democratic governor appointed a Republican who typically aligns with Democrats.

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David Beard @dwbeard.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

That "summer polling sugar high" Dems were supposedly on sure hasn't shown any signs of abating

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David Beard @dwbeard.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Didn't know you were so close with Peltola!

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David Beard @dwbeard.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Third terms are traditionally tough for Governors to win and succeed at - Abbott is trying to win a fourth(!)

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David Beard @dwbeard.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

"X always outperform their polling" is exactly what gets said right before X underperforms their polling www.politico.com/news/magazin...

Rep. Lawler claims "Republicans always outperform their polling"

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Reposted by David Beard

The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 22/09/2026

In primaries this year, Democratic turnout utterly dwarfed Republican turnout. But does it mean anything for November? It turns out the answer is very much yes. A new analysis from @donnermaps.bsky.social suggests that Dems are on track for a 13-point blowout in the House vote. Here's why.

the-downballot.com

Massive primary turnout points to biggest year for Democrats since Watergate

There’s a remarkably close correlation between the primary vote and the House popular vote

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David Beard @dwbeard.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

Florida Senate is also early and if it’s at all competitive, a great sign for Dems

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David Beard @dwbeard.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

Ohio Senate will be relatively early in the night and a good bellwether as to Senate control

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Reposted by David Beard

The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 27/08/2026

On The Downballot podcast this week, we're conducting a fantasy football-style "Senate flip" draft! @dwbeard.bsky.social & guest host @karichisholm.bsky.social take turns "drafting" races in the order they think they'll flip, and they craft a *very* deep roster. Listen to our round robin here!

the-downballot.com

The Downballot’s ‘Senate flip’ fantasy draft

Listen now | Plus, Trump’s favorites narrowly win runoffs in Oklahoma and South Carolina

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Reposted by David Beard

SiriusXM Progress @siriusxmprog.bsky.social · 21/08/2026

Coming up on The Dean Obeidallah Show: @joesudbay.bsky.social rounds out the week joined by: @govmlg.bsky.social @thedanicook.bsky.social @laikenjordahl.bsky.social @dwbeard.bsky.social from @the-downballot.com ☎️: 866-997-4748 🔊: siriusxm.us/Dean

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David Beard @dwbeard.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

lol they've got nothing on him

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David Beard @dwbeard.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

I think people are over indexing a bit on Crowley at this point, I think it’s still pretty much a toss up

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David Beard @dwbeard.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

Come for the pipe bomb story, stay for the important info about Secretaries of State!

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Reposted by David Beard

The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 09/07/2026

Folks, a *very* exciting announcement: The Downballot has just published updated 2024 presidential results by congressional district for every state with a new map this year! That's 10 states in all, covering a full one-third of the House. Please dive in!

the-downballot.com

The Downballot releases presidential results for every new House district, sponsored by Grassroots Analytics

10 state have new maps for the midterms. We have data for all of them.

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Reposted by David Beard

The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 21/05/2026

Nevada Attorney General Aaron Ford, the Democratic frontrunner to take on Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo this fall, is this week's guest on The Downballot Podcast. Check out @dwbeard.bsky.social and @joesudbay.bsky.social's interview with Ford, plus a rundown of a truly volatile week in primaries.

the-downballot.com

Nevada Attorney General Aaron Ford previews his race for governor

Listen now | Meanwhile, Trump keeps knocking off Republican incumbents

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Reposted by David Beard

Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

. @hakeem-jeffries.bsky.social, at CAP event, on how House Democrats see this moment: “Either MAGA extremists are going to break the country, or we’re going to break them. And our goal is to break them. We will defeat them. We have to beat them electorally and then we have to break their spirit.”

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Reposted by David Beard

The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 18/05/2026

We're about to have a massive election night with primaries from coast-to-coast and *general* elections for the Georgia Supreme Court. We're out with our hot-off-the-presses preview of the many big races to watch.

the-downballot.com

Liberals could make major inroads into Georgia's Supreme Court on Tuesday

Plus, we preview nearly 30 primaries in five states ahead of a very busy primary night

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David Beard @dwbeard.bsky.social · 15/05/2026

A big part of why the GOP is in trouble is that those same voters are mad that Trump has not only NOT brought 2019 back but he's made stuff even worse (gas prices/health insurance/etc). No amount fearmongering on crime or trans issues will stop the fact that voters want to punish Trump.

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David Beard @dwbeard.bsky.social · 15/05/2026

I think voters often deep down know what they want and it's very hard to get them off of it. In 2024, swing voters wanted Trump b/c they wanted 2019 back. No ad or argument was going to change that. So when Trump said "I won't do Project 2025" they believed him b/c they wanted it to be true.

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Reposted by David Beard

The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 14/05/2026

@dwbeard.bsky.social made an excellent point about the MO map ruling on this week's podcast: If the GOP waits 8 months to suspend the map pending signature review, then uses the map anyway "because it's too late," they can just pass a new gerrymander next year even if the veto referendum succeeds.

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David Beard @dwbeard.bsky.social · 12/05/2026

Good discussion around the state of Labour for those curious about what's gone wrong in the U.K. over the past two years www.youtube.com/watch?v=7FAv...

youtube.com

HOW DID LABOUR GET IT WRONG?: LabourList 2026 Election Analysis

YouTube video by LabourList

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Reposted by David Beard

The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 16/04/2026

The DOJ's demand for confidential voter data from the states is an alarming effort to exert federal control over elections. On The Downballot podcast this week, Maryam Jazini explains why it's so dangerous—and how @commoncause.org and its allies are fighting back. Listen here!

the-downballot.com

Good riddance to Eric Swalwell

Listen now | And how Common Cause is fighting the DOJ's voter data grab

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Reposted by David Beard

TrumpsTaxes @trumpstaxes.com · 20/03/2026

The 2nd half of this week’s @the-downballot.com podcast features an important discussion on a topic that is not given enough coverage: How election laws impact the Native American community. I learned a lot in this conversation with @toreydolan.bsky.social. www.the-downballot.com/p/the-big-ta...

the-downballot.com

The big takeaways from the Illinois primaries

Listen now | And Torey Dolan explains the unique problems election law poses for Native voters

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Reposted by David Beard

Timothy Burke @bubbaprog.xyz · 19/03/2026

As called, once again, by Jimmy Roselli and Griffin Wright on High Point student radio:

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Reposted by David Beard

Mark Poloncarz @markpoloncarz.bsky.social · 05/03/2026

Yesterday, I joined David Nir and David Beard of @the-downballot.com podcast to discuss the important of county races and how @boostingleaders.bsky.social will help elect great new leaders nationwide. Listen to the podcast here:

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David Beard @dwbeard.bsky.social · 04/03/2026

The Republican party is in a state of constant self-cannibalization, regularly taking down incumbents purely for the sin of being an elected official, only for the cycle to begin anew

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David Beard @dwbeard.bsky.social · 04/03/2026

Are you sure it has Dallas Dem results? I just see the GOP Dallas results

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David Beard @dwbeard.bsky.social · 04/03/2026

Most sites have the Travis early vote fwiw - Dallas and Bexar is what's missing

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David Beard @dwbeard.bsky.social · 04/03/2026

In NC's HD-106 Dem primary the progressive challenger Rodney Sadler is dominating the incumbent ConservaDem Carla Cunningham 75%-18% in the early vote

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David Beard @dwbeard.bsky.social · 27/02/2026

I believe Australia uses RCV for the House and proportional representation for the Senate - Canada and the UK are really outliers in their “2 parties plus a 3rd smaller party plus separatists” FPTP system

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Reposted by David Beard

James Hell Brooks @kleinman.bsky.social · 12/02/2026

It is by far the best place to talk about elections online

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David Beard @dwbeard.bsky.social · 11/02/2026

Bacon (retiring) and Massie (weirdo) make sense but Kiley has always been a company man; he’s just pissed Trump’s redistricting wars led to his district getting torched lol

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Reposted by David Beard

the abbot of unreason (an archaeologist) @merovingians.bsky.social · 11/02/2026

the thing about AOC 2028 that reminds me of Trump 2016 is that it seems obvious *somebody* will take her down but as soon as you get to individual names you have your doubts anyone actually can

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Reposted by David Beard

TrumpsTaxes @trumpstaxes.com · 07/02/2026

This week’s @the-downballot.com podcast is every election nerd’s dream: Full coverage of the Texas Senate special election earthquake, filing deadlines, Senate fundraising, House fundraising, and a special look at one of my 2026 House race obsessions: #NC11 www.the-downballot.com/p/why-the-go...

the-downballot.com

Why the GOP is right to freak out after Texas

Listen now | And breaking down fourth-quarter fundraising reports

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Reposted by David Beard

James Hell Brooks @kleinman.bsky.social · 01/02/2026

Direct hit, losing altitude, everyone get your parachutes

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Reposted by David Beard

The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 29/01/2026

What would happen if Trump sends his goons to terrorize a city during an election? The brave residents of the Twin Cities just showed us—in astonishing fashion. On this The Downballot podcast this week, we discuss the astonishing special election in St. Paul—and why Trump should fear a backlash.

the-downballot.com

The Twin Cities' fierce response to ICE—at the ballot box

Listen now | And DDHQ's Geoffrey Skelley joins us to nerd out and talk shop

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David Beard @dwbeard.bsky.social · 15/12/2025

Noting that Trump clearly thinks it's fine to say really nasty things about someone just after they've died - might revisit this post one day

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David Beard @dwbeard.bsky.social · 11/12/2025

Trump is pretty much already a lame duck at this point

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Reposted by David Beard

The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 04/12/2025

The GOP is deeply unsettled by the big Dem showing in #TN07. On The Downballot podcast this week, @davidnir.com & @dwbeard.bsky.social explain why they're right to be. We also geek out w/Lou Jacobson about the Almanac of American Politics, a seminal resource for all political nerds. Listen here!

the-downballot.com

GOP in disarray after Tennessee special

Listen now | And Lou Jacobson explains the Almanac of American Politics

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David Beard @dwbeard.bsky.social · 03/12/2025

Given what we’ve seen, Behn should win the early vote in total, but we know the E-Day vote will shift red so the question is by how much and is there any differential turnout between rural and non-rural counties

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Reposted by David Beard

David Nir @davidnir.com · 21/11/2025

While we were recording the show, @dwbeard.bsky.social & I debated whether to address the TX dissent, which had just dropped. We decided we couldn't, because it would have simply taken way too long to dissect all the lunacy. But this great piece from @mjsdc.bsky.social gives you the full flavor -->

slate.com

This Dissent From a Reagan Judge Is One of the Most Unhinged Judicial Opinions in U.S. History

He invokes the liberal Jewish philanthropist George Soros no fewer than 17 times.

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Reposted by David Beard

Jet - Local Delinquent Dragon @jetthedrake.bsky.social · 18/11/2025

People coming to bluesky because twitter is broke

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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 13/11/2025

We've got a jam-packed podcast this week! First up is @jlray.bsky.social to discuss a fascinating polling experiment we conducted w/YouGov Blue. Then we talk to @cgaldieri.bsky.social about all things New Hampshire, including the already nasty GOP Senate primary. Listen here!

the-downballot.com

The inside scoop on The Downballot's new polling

Listen now | And a deep dive into New Hampshire politics with Chris Galdieri

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David Beard @dwbeard.bsky.social · 10/11/2025

Warner is obviously a no because he's up for re-election next year - I'd be surprised if any 2026ers running again vote for it

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David Beard @dwbeard.bsky.social · 10/11/2025

You can see how the House Dems are almost unanimously opposed to this b/c they have the luxury of the House GOP being solely responsible for passing legislation.

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David Beard @dwbeard.bsky.social · 10/11/2025

The best outcome would have been the elimination of the filibuster but GOP Senators understand that the filibuster is much better for them than for Dems. This fight, like so much of our modern system of government, is about the cost of allowing the filibuster to run wild.

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