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As we said in our paper, Burnham will have to go further if he wants to make a difference. Rural areas have not yet been prioritised for devolution, and some - most notably Cornwall - are losing out on growth funding as a result. We need devo everywhere and more £ on growth

But long-term leadership and effective investments can make the difference. I swerve away from food and tourism in the interview, but one of our standout exports are Scottish whisky and salmon - the former exporting c£5bn (more than we export in iron and steel).

Rural areas are slightly better off than urban areas in the UK on average, but productivity is lower and pockets of poverty persist - 9/10 of the most deprived neighbourhoods in England are coastal (1 in Essex, 1 in Hastings, and 8 in Lancashire)

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And it's not just transport - rural households are 13x more likely to lack decent broadband. That's despite working from home taking off more in rural areas than urban areas post-pandemic

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Connectivity is a problem everywhere, but especially for rural and coastal communities. The vast majority are within 30 mins of an urban centre (for work, healthcare, etc) - but buses can be irregular or routes missing altogether. Fare caps won't be enough to tackle that problem

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Today - 18/07/2026 - BBC Sounds

Great to speak to the Today programme this morning about our research - making the case that Andy Burnham is right to be ambitious for growth and devolution in rural and coastal areas too. Listen from 25:20 here: bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/... I could have added: 1/

bbc.co.uk

News and current affairs, including Sports Desk, Weather and Thought for the Day.

Dan Turner @dtturner.bsky.social · 12/07/2026

100% - especially if you make the argument, as we do, that we should be seeking comprehensive converse of regional government. Why would a model developed for Manchester’s geographic and historic quirks automatically be right for Norfolk and Suffolk?

Dan Turner @dtturner.bsky.social · 12/07/2026

@jenwilliamsft.bsky.social it’s fair to say we focused on mayors over LAs in this paper (taking our cue from policy since 24), but to be fair in our prior work we do engage extensively with Richard L, Howard B and many others from local gov www.hks.harvard.edu/sites/defaul...

hks.harvard.edu

We launched the paper yesterday at King's College London, hosted by the Strand Group, joined by Angela Rayner, Kim McGuinness, Michael Gove and @nickmacpherson.bsky.social. Thanks to MRCBG at Harvard Kennedy School, King's and the Gatsby Foundation.

Our test for the next 12 months: does a proper theory of growth emerge, shared between Ministers, Mayors and First Ministers - and does next Spring's Spending Review put the money behind it? We need a strategy w/ allocations to match. Otherwise it's rhetoric again.

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Fourth: complete the map - be bold about mayoral elections everywhere by 2029 - and give mayors real economic firepower: wider integrated settlements, and staff and budgets moved from Whitehall to the regions. More doers in the regions, fewer checkers at the centre.

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Third: rebalance resources. The “Golden Triangle” gets 54% of England's transport spend and 52% of its innovation spend, with 43% of its population. Commit to spending as much outside it as within it.

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Second: move early to set out a UK Growth & Productivity Strategy - agreed between Ministers, Mayors and First Ministers through the Council of Nations and Regions by end-2026, in time to shape the 2027 Spending Review. Key is to move fast, so HMG can just get on with delivering it ahead of next GE

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So what should the new PM do? First: leadership. Ministerial success should be tied to devo. A new central institution - a PM-chaired Regional Growth Delivery Unit, run jointly by the Cabinet Office and Treasury - is needed with the muscle to take on Whitehall's most recalcitrant departments.

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That may be about to change. Andy Burnham promises a “No 10 in the North”. Rachel Reeves has promised a fiscal devolution roadmap. For the first time, the PM and the Treasury could pull in the same direction. Devolution's champions will have nowhere to hide.

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Why does this keep happening? Our interviews with 95 top policymakers found no PM has ever sustained interest in regional growth. Reform came from committed Chancellors and DPMs - Heseltine, Brown, Osborne, Rayner. Never Number 10 and the Treasury together.

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City-region transport is the bright spot: almost tripled to £15.6bn for 2027–32. But that's still around half what the National Infrastructure Commission says is needed - and the Greater South East still gets ~£500 more growth spending per person than the rest of the country.

Spending choices tell another story. Capital spending rose £120bn - the highest sustained public investment since the 1950s. But around half went to defence, and the NHS absorbed roughly 90% of the day-to-day increase. The growth levers - science, housing, local growth - were left flat or falling.

As George Osborne told us of pushing devolution through Whitehall: “it was screaming and kicking… the default is against you, whatever the rhetoric.” Only a strong PM, Chancellor or DPM can fight against that.

Number 10 quickly stalled on regions under Starmer. The missions apparatus was downgraded within 18 months. The Council of Nations & Regions is called “a glorified talking shop”. And departments holding skills, innovation and employment support refuse to devolve - even when formally asked.

But Starmer government was better at incrementally improving institutions than using them. Two years in, there is still no growth strategy: no shared diagnosis, no theory of growth, no plan linking Whitehall, mayors and DAs. Symbolism of bringing mayors in on week one not met w/ substance

On the ground, more suggestive evidence that devo delivers. Greater Manchester's economy is growing at roughly twice the national rate; Bee Network bus use is up nearly a fifth since 2022/23. The West Midlands, West Yorkshire and the North East are (hopefully!) building trams and metros again.

Credit above all to MHCLG under Angela Rayner: the English Devolution Act, a plan for mayors everywhere, multi-billion pound integrated settlements. But also to HM Treasury: an end to “small pots”, plus a Fair Funding Review matching money to need for ~80% of councils - up from a third in 2024.

To start with the positive: unlike every reforming government since the 1970s, this one didn't tear up the regional institutions it inherited - it built on the mayoral model. That is a decisive break with 50 years of chop-and-change.

Our scorecard: 3 recommendations on track, 3 mixed progress, 4 off track.

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Sam Alvis @samalvis.bsky.social · 05/06/2025

Two years ago Labour promised a “devolution revolution” to drive growth. Today, with @officialedballs.bsky.social, Nyasha Weinberg, @annastansbury.bsky.social and @esmeelsden.bsky.social, we publish our verdict: a government at risk of squandering the best opportunity in a generation. 🧵

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Reposted by Dan Turner

Why even bother with long-run economic change & industrial policy if you don't get the chance to see it through? Biden went all in on economic change, giving other progressives confidence to back things like industrial policy. But after the Democrats loss many are questioning whether it's worth it?

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Dan Turner @dtturner.bsky.social · 20/05/2025

Great to contribute to Sam’s excellent Substack today, setting out some of the arguments from our recent working paper on Bidenomics and what it might mean for the U.K. 👇

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Dan Turner @dtturner.bsky.social · 16/04/2025

Any recommendations on role of wealth effects in driving recent (post-2008) US growth? Struck that average real consumption is up about a third (left) while real terms wealth is up about 80% since 2009 (right). Or $4trn extra C for $77bn extra wealth (all real)

Dan Turner @dtturner.bsky.social · 14/04/2025

Work from Deming, Ong and Summers late last year is also good on suggestive evidence for the US on tech driving wider creative destruction in the US: www.economicstrategygroup.org/wp-content/u...

economicstrategygroup.org

Dan Turner @dtturner.bsky.social · 14/04/2025

Great to see coverage of our new working paper in Martin Wolf's FT column today: www.ft.com/content/7c0c... Full paper available here: www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/mrcb...

ft.com

Global turmoil makes Britain’s productivity predicament even worse

The situation is dire and only active policymaking is going to make a difference

Bidenomics – Britain's growing regional divides

11/ Finally—it’s impossible to do justice to the richness of the interviews in a thread, including from Cecelia Rouse, @jasonfurman.bsky.social, @michaelrstrain.bsky.social, Alejandra Y Castillo, @jonasnahm.com and Jonah Wagner. You can read each in full here: sites.harvard.edu/uk-regional-...

sites.harvard.edu

9/ That last point—communication—touches on the elephant in the room: if there’s lots to learn from Biden’s admin, can we also learn from the Dems’ failure to secure re-election?

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8/ That gives us our “lessons for the UK on a slide”:

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7/ Finally, we look at Biden’s supply-side agenda: lessons on industrial policy, place-based policy, protectionism, and paths not taken (like the early care economy push)—as Gene Sperling (L), @briancdeese.bsky.social, and @jaredb-econ.bsky.social set out in their interviews.

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6/ Third, the US has long outperformed the UK/Europe on productivity—and that gap’s been growing since the mid-2010s. We cite Erixon, Guinea and du Roy, and Deming, Summers & Ong on the return of US TFP growth, and the UK’s tech gap (so far) relative to US.

5/ As @adamposen.bsky.social (L) noted, many Dems and allies worried in early 2021 about the downsides of job churn. But @hboushey.bsky.social, @juliesulabor.bsky.social and others showed how supports (expanded UI, pro-worker orders) helped raise both wages and productivity.

4/ Second, we think the inflation debate can obscure the real lesson: the value of dynamism and flexibility when you “run the economy hot.” Job creation/destruction in the US pulled even further ahead of the UK post-pandemic.