iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

The Treasury will be well pleased with the commitment to abolish the triple lock, restore a health and care levy and to begin a serious debate on our relations with the EU. It will be nervous about social care - it always is - but will recognise that something has to give. #soundmoney #freetrade

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Ciaran Martin @ciaranm.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Absolutely right. Mr Burnham must run Britain just like Sir Jim Ratcliffe has run Manchester United. Like Britain, ManU was once a proud global giant. But like the UK, the club had entered a lengthy period of stagnation. Since Ratcliffe took over at Man Utd this once proud club has oh wait

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Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

Who'd be a forecaster? Just as the OBR revised down the trend rate of productivity growth, it appears to have picked up. A reminder of the resilience of the UK economy. UK finally showing signs of productivity boost, say economists - giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... via @FT

giftarticle.ft.com

UK finally showing signs of productivity boost, say economists

Better output figures are a fillip to chancellor John Healey and come after years of underperformance

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Tom Kelsey @tomkelsey.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

Does the Treasury deserve its reputation for holding back the British economy? My new article in The Political Quarterly uses the histories of Concorde and civil nuclear power to challenge common arguments about the Treasury, industrial strategy, and state capacity. 🧵

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Dan Neidle @danneidle.bsky.social · 26/07/2026

Scotland raised its top income tax rate to 48% to make the rich pay more. New HMRC data suggests the result may have been the opposite: Scotland collected about £22m less. We can't be sure, but Scotland may have fallen over the Laffer curve. 🧵:

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David Anderson @bricksilk.bsky.social · 26/07/2026

The House of Lords Constitution Committee is starting a wide-ranging inquiry into strengthening our constitutional safeguards - as proposed by (Lord) Peter Hennessy. Look East, look West, and see the urgency. Written evidence requested by 28th of September. committees.parliament.uk/committee/17...

committees.parliament.uk

The UK’s constitutional safeguards inquiry launched by Lords Constitution Committee - Committees - UK Parliament

The House of Lords Constitution Committee has today published a call for evidence for its inquiry into the UK’s constitutional safeguards. It is inviting interested individuals and organisations...

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Robert Saunders @robertsaunders.bsky.social · 12/07/2026

This was a really moving interview. We're enormously proud of Peter at Queen Mary. He's been a lone voice for a particular kind of virtue in public life: not as something we admire in ourselves, but as something we practice towards others - and especially our opponents. And he really embodies that.

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Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

Excellent paper. Well worth a read. My only worry is, given the ever increasing proportion of the tax take accounted for by the NHS, triple lock pension and debt interest, whether there will be the resources to fund it.

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Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 25/06/2026

There are respectable arguments for breaking up HM Treasury. Other countries separate the finance and economic ministry roles; others separate the finance/economic role from the budget ministry. But now is not the time. Let me explain why. 1/

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Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 22/05/2026

In a sane world, all factors of production including land would be taxed to keep marginal tax rates low. Lloyd George took on the Lords in the People's Budget to get a Land Tax on the statute book. Several years, elections & a world war later he repealed the tax after raising virtually no revenue.

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John Rentoul @rentouljohn.bsky.social · 23/04/2026

Breaking news: crime not rising www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...

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Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 17/04/2026

@ciaranm.bsky.social was my private secretary at HM Treasury before going on to be the Cabinet Secretary's right hand man. I can confirm he is right on this, as he invariably is on everything else. #badbusiness

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Ciaran Martin @ciaranm.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

This paper represents a small but deeply impressive and genuinely important achievement by the much maligned British state in what is probably the most important global issue of our era. Hear me out ( 🧵) 1/ www.aisi.gov.uk/blog/our-eva...

aisi.gov.uk

Our evaluation of Claude Mythos Preview’s cyber capabilities | AISI Work

We conducted cyber evaluations of Anthropic’s Claude Mythos Preview and found continued improvement in capture-the-flag (CTF) challenges and significant improvement on multi-step cyber-attack simulati...

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Pepper Culpepper @pculpepper.bsky.social · 07/02/2026

I’m teaching a class on lobbying for future policymakers on Monday. Hard to do better than this sensational oped from @nickmacpherson.bsky.social about money in UK politics and the transition from big banks to big tech—but the song remains the same. And the loser is public trust in government.

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Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 02/02/2026

Alistair Darling and the official Treasury were always aware that investment banks had an inside track to Number 10. But the brazen nature of that inside track is rather breath-taking.

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Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 26/11/2025

I commend this review which I carried out in 2013. The recommendations remain relevant today. assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5a7f09...

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk

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Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 14/11/2025

The only way to raise serious revenue is to raise a tax which everybody pays. Raising a tax which someone else pays rarely raises the revenue needed and creates endless pressure from special interest groups. Compare and contrast Mr Osborne's 2 1/2% VAT increase with his pasty tax. #omnishambles

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Philip Taylor @philipjtaylor.bsky.social · 29/10/2025

Nikolaus Pevsner famously described the demolition of Sir John Soane's Bank of England, as "the greatest architectural crime in the City of London of the twentieth century". Here is Project Soane's initial recreation of parts of it. @nickmacpherson.bsky.social youtu.be/TlSdcXIqufQ?...

youtu.be

Visualizing architectural wonders lost to history: rendering Project Soane

YouTube video by RAMSA | Robert A.M. Stern Architects

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Chetun Patel @chepat73.bsky.social · 29/10/2025

Case study week on the 'Chancellors and the Treasury' module on @strandgroup.bsky.social MA Government Studies - Expert advisers @nickmacpherson.bsky.social @officialedballs.bsky.social prep students before they re-enact the day UK left the ERM in Sep 1992, a historic and chaotic 24 hours

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Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 11/06/2025

2 thoughts on the spending review. 1. Raising public service productivity is more important than ever. 2. 15 years of prioritising the NHS, education and "triple lock" (and now defence) by cutting all other programmes, in particular the home office and justice) is no longer sustainable. #soundmoney

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Ciaran Martin @ciaranm.bsky.social · 03/04/2025

👊🇨🇦🔥

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Alan Beattie @alanbeattie.bsky.social · 03/04/2025

My Trade Secrets response to the tariffs. Bad news: these tariffs cd be worse than the 1930s & the Republicans are inflicting their deep pathology on the world. Good news: this is as yet a US trade war, not a world trade war. Others can resist following Trump's crazy road. First 300 clicks free.

on.ft.com

A US tariff pathology is unleashed upon the world

[FREE TO READ] The Republicans have allowed a destructive economic nationalist to lead America into chaos

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Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 26/03/2025

The biggest challenge for the Chancellor is delivering the revenue forecast. Despite all the tax increases since Labour last left office, the tax burden only rose by 2.1 per cent of GDP in 15 years. Today's forecast assumes a similar rise in just 5 years. If only raising revenue was that easy...

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Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 26/03/2025

Debt service costs are set to rise from £105.2bn to £131.6bn over the next 5 years, a growth rate significantly ahead of spending on public services and welfare. a reminder that the Chancellor is right to prioritise fiscal consolidation. #soundmoney

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Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 14/03/2025

Good to know Canada is in safe hands. If ever someone was well qualified to deal with the extraordinary challenges Britain's most reliable and loyak ally faces, it's my old friend Dr Carney. #freetrade

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Ciaran Martin @ciaranm.bsky.social · 13/03/2025

Love the way no one over here paid any attention to Australia when a massive Chinese warship started live-firing off its coast, but some random influencer no one’s ever heard of steals a baby wombat and our media can’t get enough 😀😬

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Mark Carney @mark-carney.bsky.social · 28/02/2025

Freedom and democracy are always worth fighting for. Slava Ukraini.

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Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 31/01/2025

Happy Brexit Day (2). Why did immigration *increase* after Brexit, and what do w know about the economic and the labour market impacts? My National Institute Economic Review article (open access). www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

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Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 17/01/2025

UK 10 year bond yields have risen 14 basis points in the last month. Germany's have risen by 30 bp and the USA's by 21 bp, confirming both the fickleness of markets and the media. #soundmoney

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Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 09/01/2025

An interesting battle is playing out between the Bank of England and the market as to who determines the interest rate mortgage holders and businesses pay. At the moment, the market is winning. #soundmoney

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Strand Group KCL @strandgroup.bsky.social · 13/12/2024

Partnerships with HM Treasury & DBT mean our 'Chancellors & Treasury' & 'History of Civil Service' students had classes in the Old Chancellor's Office & the Old Admiralty Building with DBT perm sec Gareth Davies ℹ️ www.kcl.ac.uk/study/postgr... @nickmacpherson.bsky.social @policyatkings.bsky.social

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Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 24/11/2024

I commend John Kingman's article on how to get the economy growing. In short, be bolder on planning, infrastructure, university reform and social housing.

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Strand Group KCL @strandgroup.bsky.social · 19/11/2024

Excellent case studies on the IMF & ERM crises on our 'Chancellors & the Treasury' module Thanks to practitioner experts Ed Balls, Catherine Macleod, @nickmacpherson.bsky.social, & Mario Pisani The module is part of MA Government Studies: www.kcl.ac.uk/study/postgr... @policyatkings.bsky.social

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Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 19/11/2024

I understand why inheritance tax is unpopular. But 100%IHT relief encourages asset hoarding until death: it encourages inefficiency and is a barrier to productivity growth.

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Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 05/11/2024

Not altogether surprising given uncertainty around the US election but a reminder that investors in UK gilts expect a return and demand has its limits. #soundmoney

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Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 31/10/2024

The Budget is a brave attempt to deal with HMG's inheritance but contains two vulnerabilities. Has the Chancellor tightened policy enough? If not, she may require a 2nd bite. And will the market absorb the extra borrowing? Early days but the recent rise in gilt yields is not encouraging. #soundmoney

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Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 28/10/2024

The UK's baby bust continues - births in England and Wales in 2023 fell below 600,000, and the total fertility rate fell to 1.44 - lowest rate on record. www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...

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Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 24/10/2024

The new rules could increase investment. But they will unambiguously increase borrowing and pressure on funding costs. HMG can contain those pressures through a credible macro plan. That will have nothing to do with the rules and everything to do with the path to stabilising debt. #soundmoney

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Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 27/09/2024

Fiscal rules aren't "rules", simce they are constantly changing and there are no consequences if you miss them. We don't call the 2% inflation target a rule. Much more important is whether fiscal policy is sustainable and coherent. Time to move on.

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Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 16/11/2023

Tempting to ignore @sirjjkc.bsky.social as a discredited relic of kinder gentler times. But HMG would do well to follow his advice which has been proven right over and over again. Time to move on.

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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 25/10/2023

Sadly we don't know - if the labour market is loosening or tightening - if we have a UK specific participation problem - if the numbers of self employed are collapsing The data is rubbish My column The UK’s ‘official’ labour data is a nonsense ft.com/content/d6bd... via @ft

ft.com

The UK’s ‘official’ labour data is becoming a nonsense

How can we make economic policy if the figures we rely on are problematic?

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