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Ethan Shaw

@cutoffmountain.bsky.social
233 followers 382 following 124 posts

Naturalist. Landscape: physiography, ecosystem geography, etc. Wallowa-Blue Mtn Snowfield Project (Insta: wallowasnowfields). Wisconsin to the Columbia Plateau.

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Reposted by Ethan Shaw
UCDavisPlants @ucdavisplants.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
🌲From Forest Ecology and Management: Larger lodgepole pines in the Intermountain West faced greater mountain pine beetle mortality, while higher snowpack and more nonhost trees reduced risk. (Jackson P. Audley, Andrew M. Latimer) ▶️ www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... #PlantScience #Entomology
Fig. 4. Prediction plots of the most influential significant fixed effects from the fitted all-years (2005–2024) generalized linear mixed effects model. Prediction curves were generated using predicted values from the final model plotted over the entire range of observed values for each explanatory variable. Interactions include a prediction line for the lowest and highest values for each interaction factor (see legends). Fixed effects include: (A) individual tree diameter at breast height (dbh); (B) quadratic mean diameter (QMD); (C) dbh * average snowpack Nov-Mar; (D) dbh * average precipitation Apr-Aug prior year. Each x-axis displays scaled levels of the explanatory variable.
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Ethan Shaw @cutoffmountain.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Looking down-country at day's end
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Reposted by Ethan Shaw
That Scott Guy @bisontattooguy.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Today’s view of the Lamar River in Yellowstone National Park.
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Ethan Shaw @cutoffmountain.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Evening with the big black birds...
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Tom Gill @tomgillpredicts.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Scientists Define a New Category of Heat Wave: “Snow Eaters” eos.org/articles/sci...
eos.org
Scientists Define a New Category of Heat Wave: “Snow Eaters” - Eos
Unseasonably warm weather that rapidly melts snowpack is becoming more widespread in the U.S. West and happening earlier in the year.
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Ethan Shaw @cutoffmountain.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Glassing perennial snowfields in the high country—smoky distances
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Climatologist49 @climatologist49.bsky.social · 02/08/2026
August is the least wind month of the year for a large majority of the Contiguous U.S.
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
My commentary on Marshall et al 2026's climate change rapid attribution study on severe Western U.S. snow drought, which developed during record-warm 2026 winter & has contributed to widespread drought & wildfire-related impacts since, is now out. [Thread] www.pnas.org/doi/10....
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Eoghan Daltun 🌍 @irishrainforest.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Wonderful news: Caspian tigers reintroduced to Kazakhstan after a 70-year absence!! www.goodnewsnetwork.org/the-tiger-re...
goodnewsnetwork.org
The Tiger Returns to Kazakhstan in First-in-the-World Rewilding Project a Decade in the Making
If the program succeeds, Kazakhstan will become the world's first country to re-establish the tiger into an ecosystem it had disappeared from.
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Big Wonderful Wyoming @wydot.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Vedauwoo, 8/11/2026, 2:26:08 PM
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Mitch Tobin @mitchtobin.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
I had a very interesting—and sobering—conversation with Adrienne Marshall (@hydro-adrienne.bsky.social), lead author of a new study on climate change and the West’s 2026 snow drought. Some scary projections if emissions keep climbing—but that’s not a fait accompli. waterdesk.org/2026/08/clim...
waterdesk.org
Climate change made the West’s snow drought far more likely—but it’s still not the new normal
Q&A with hydrologist Adrienne Marshall on why this past winter’s snowpack fell so low, how global warming increased the odds and what the future may hold
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IEMBot Pendleton @pdt.weather.im · 01/08/2026
#SPC issues Day 1 Extreme Fire Weather Risk at Aug 1, 17:00z for PDT Link
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
Remarkable amount of fire on the ground, and smoke in the air, this evening. In this satellite snapshot, numerous large fires (red thermal detections) and smoke plumes stretch from Great Basin northward into British Columbia; fire weather conditions will worsen this weekend.
Current snapshot from NOAA Wildland Fire Data Portal showing extent of Thu fire activity in Western U.S.
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
With numerous large fires already burning, the weekend fire wx outlook is concerning for interior PacNW (Cascades crest eastward). A dry cold frontal passage will bring strong winds/low humidity against severe drought backdrop, leading to "extremely critical" risk. #ORwx #WAwx
Fire weather risk outlook from NOAA SPC for Saturday. It shows a large region of elevated to critical risk, with a portion of eastern Washington designed as "extremely critical risk"--the highest level.
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Dakota Smith @weatherdak.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Obsessed with this view that shows the life and death of a thunderstorm in Manitoba this evening. Incredible we can see stuff like this from above.
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National Weather Service @nws.noaa.gov · 27/07/2026
Smoke from fires in the Pacific Northwest will continue to move over the area at times this week. Expect hazy skies, some visibility reductions, and areas of low air quality. Check the latest on air quality at www.airnow.gov Model data source: rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRRsmo...
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Ethan Shaw @cutoffmountain.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Amid heavy wildfire-smoke haze, an old, broken-top Interior Douglas-fir buddy on the slope
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Melaine Le Roy @subfossilguy.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Taconnaz and Bossons glaciers towered by Aiguille du Midi tonight! 🤩 📷 @lomdumtblanc.bsky.social
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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences @pnas.org · 28/07/2026
High temperatures and low precipitation in the American West last winter led to record-low snowpack. A study finds that such a snow drought is 4.4 times more likely in the current climate than it would have been in the pre-industrial climate. In PNAS: ow.ly/LKKh50ZtquX
Low snowpack is visible on the Front Range mountains from Interstate 25 near Colorado Springs on February 21, 2026, during an unusually dry winter season. Stock photo.
CREDIT: Mark Courage / Shutterstock.com
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Nature @nature.com · 28/07/2026
Fern-covered landscapes dried out and fuelled gigantic wildfires some 200 million years ago during the mass-extinction event that ended the Triassic period of geological history go.nature.com/45r5jzz
go.nature.com
Wildfires rampaged across Europe in the dying days of the Triassic
Infernos ravaged continental expanses of ferns during mass extinction of land and sea animals.
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Joe Mason @moreorloess.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
Trees, bedrock hills, and small lakes in the eastern Boundary Waters near the Kekekabic Trail. Lidar point cloud (22.34 points/m2!) from USGS via @opentopography.org. Viewed with lidRviewer.
Three dimensional visualization of a lidar point cloud. Individual trees can be identified, along with hills and small lakes.
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Wisconet @wisconet.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
Today’s heat and humidity will provide some of the ingredients necessary for severe weather. Most of Wisconsin is in a Level 3/5 risk for severe weather for this evening and overnight. Damaging winds are the main threat, but the Northwoods could see large hail and tornadoes.
Map showing the severe weather outlook for Wisconsin for today. Damaging winds are the primary concern, but northern Wisconsin could see large hail and a few tornadoes with the initial storms.
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Paul Byrne @theplanetaryguy.com · 26/07/2026
A solar eclipse. On Saturn. By Titan. Photographed from Earth. 📷: AJ Smadi (StardustAstro/Correct_Presence_936)
Saturn seen during the day from Earth, oriented with its ring system almost edge-on. Small points of light near the planet are its major moons. A dark circle on the planet itself is the shadow of Titan.
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
The extraordinary wildfire outbreak across Oregon, eastern Washington, and southern British Columbia has become even more alarming amid critical fire weather conditions. Over 500,000 acres have already burned in OR & WA alone, and that number could be >1 million acres by Mon.
An alarming snapshot from NOAA Wildland Fire Portal depicting numerous large smoke plumes and large heat signatures from many wildfires burning across Oregon, Washington, and British Colubmia.
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 25/07/2026
Unfortunately, and as anticipated, yesterday's widespread lightning-following-heat event amid severe drought has sparked a large number of additional wildfires, expanding existing outbreak across OR, WA, & BC. Numerous heat signatures & large smoke plumes are evident. #ORwx #WAwx
Current snapshot from NOAA Wildfire Fire Portal showing dozens of large, active fires (heat signatures and smoke plumes) from Oregon into southern British Columbia
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IEMBOT Boise @boi.weather.im · 23/07/2026
BOI upgrades Fire Weather Watch to Red Flag Warning valid at Jul 24, 2:00 PM MDT for Owyhee Mountains [ID] and Baker Valley, Central Canyonlands, Northwestern Vale BLM, Southern Grasslands [OR] till Jul 25, 9:00 PM MDT Link
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Ethan Shaw @cutoffmountain.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
Edgy skyscape vibes in NE Oregon as thunderstorms (fresh fire-makers) rear up amid smoke-haze...
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IEMBot Pendleton @pdt.weather.im · 23/07/2026
PDT updates Red Flag Warning (extends time and expands area to include 2 zones, continues 5 zones) Link
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Mike Dettinger @mdettinger.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
New study challenges common misconception that floods will decrease under warming in many rivers due to changes in land-sfc processes, espec less snowmelt. Blames error on past reliance on daily simulations, which mask changes due to subdaily rainfall intensities. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
Another lightning outbreak now ongoing in PacNW (TS Elida's remants), & this time fuels are considerably drier west of Cascades following recent heat. Numerous additional wildfire ignitions are likely across much of OR/WA over next 48 hr, worsening existing outbreak. #ORwx #WAwx
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Ryan Voutilainen @yvrwxwatcher.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
Some epic shots of Pyrocumulus clouds indicative of extreme fire behaviour associated with the wildfires near Boston Bar including a new start that’s threatening the main townsite. Seen from 125km away in Coquitlam BC! H/T 📸: @brad604.bsky.social #BCWildfire #BCStorm #BCStormWatch #BCWX
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IEMBOT Boise @boi.weather.im · 22/07/2026
#SPC issues Day 1 Isolated Dry Thunderstorm Fire Weather Risk at Jul 22, 15:20z for BOI Link
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Mike Flannigan @mikeflannigan.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
Hot and dry weather today and the result is ots of very active fires in BC. GOES-West geocolor loop below showing lots of smoke plumes and one pyrocb ( red line)
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Ben Goldfarb @bengoldfarb.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
Don't love it. www.denverpost.com/2026/07/22/c...
denverpost.com
Last winter’s extreme snow drought was a sign of the West’s future, Colorado study finds
Extreme snow droughts like the one that plagued the West this winter will become more frequent — and eventually the norm — across much of the region as climate change fuels warmer temperatures, accord...
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Eva Holland @evaholland.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
With apologies for being a bit touchy, this also shows a lot of American wildfire smoke coming our way...
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cira-csu.bsky.social @cira-csu.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Last week, lighting from thunderstorms ignited dozens of fires in Central Oregon. These wildfires have continued to burn for several days, scorching hundreds of thousands of acres of land in the region.
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
A major new wildfire outbreak is now underway across interior Pacific Northwest, with dozens (or more) new wildfires already popping up in eastern Oregon & Washington following tens of thousands of lightning strikes in region experiencing moderate to extreme drought. #ORwx #WAwx
Current Watch Duty snapshot across PacNW, showing literally dozens of new fires in eastern Washington and Oregon.
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IEMBot Pendleton @pdt.weather.im · 16/07/2026
#SPC issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Jul 16, 16:34z for PDT Link
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
A major thunderstorm outbreak is unfolding across the interior Pacific NW. While not "dry thunderstorms" (w/briefly heavy showers), numerous wildfire ignitions are still likely due to strikes outside of rain cores, severe pre-existing drought, & heatwave to follow. #ORwx #WAwx
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Climatologist49 @climatologist49.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
The just concluded 12-month snow season (July 1 to June 30) was the least snowy on record for both the Contiguous U.S. and for Europe. ❄️😭
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Mike Flannigan @mikeflannigan.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
Another day and another pyrocumulonimbus (Pyrocb - fire generated thunderstorm) in Canada. Today, the pyrocb is in the NWT. GOES-West geocolor loop below. South of Great Bear Lake there are some pyrocu to the west side and in the center with the pyrocb on the east side.
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
New Weather West post is now out: Exceptionally broad and persistent west-central U.S. ridging to bring periods of elevated heat and monsoon moisture to CA and the SW, with record heat across Intermountain West. Plus: dry lightning risk in California?
weatherwest.com
Exceptionally broad and persistent west-central U.S. ridging to bring periods of elevated heat and monsoon moisture to CA and the SW, with record heat across Intermountain West - Weather West
July 10, 2026 - Daniel Swain - June was mostly warmer than average in California, but without exceptional heat and with robust coastal marine layer; large and destructive wildfires explode across Southern Rockies amid strong winds and extreme drought June was a relatively warm month across much of the western U.S. compared to long-term averages, though record warmth was limited to the #
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Colton the fish sp💀💀ker🐟🪴🏕️🐝 @fishsqueezer.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
I paid a visit to the state champion American chestnut tree (tallest of the trio pictured here) by Fort Sherman Playground in Coeur d'Alene. It's in full, gorgeous bloom. As far as I've been able to discover, it is the tallest American chestnut alive, measured at 123 feet over ten years ago. 🌱
A trio of chestnut trees in full bloom amid a park.
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IEMBOT Boise @boi.weather.im · 07/07/2026
#SPC issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Jul 7, 20:18z for BOI Link
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Ethan Shaw @cutoffmountain.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
Evening skyscapes (smoke-tinged)
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IEMBot Pendleton @pdt.weather.im · 07/07/2026
PDT continues Red Flag Warning valid at Jul 7, 1:00 PM PDT (Lower Columbia Basin of Oregon [OR] and Kittitas Valley, Lower Columbia Basin [WA]) till Jul 7, 10:00 PM PDT Link
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
There are growing indications that large, intense, & perhaps record-breaking mid-atmospheric high pressure system (aka a "heat dome") will develop somewhere between Rockies & Central Plains by mid-Jul. This could bring a widespread & severe heatwave across much of the U.S.
Map from ECMWF ensemble showing predicted 500mg GPH anomalies in mid-July. A massive ridge is depicted, centered near Colorado but extending from California to the Ohio River Valley.
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Climate.us @climate.us · 26/06/2026
We got a big bump in traffic yesterday when people learned about us on NPR. Thank you to @npr.org for covering our launch and bringing our story to people's attention! And thank you to all our new followers. We can do this together! 🌍️🧪💪 #ClimateAction #ClimateForUs #ProtectScience
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Wisconet @wisconet.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
Today is Lightning Safety Awareness Day in Wisconsin and this week is Lightning Safety Awareness Week. Here’s a nice article about lightning safety from our program manager.
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
Unfortunately, multiple large and high-intensity wildfires (including some immediately threatening populated areas) are now ongoing in Utah and Nevada (near the core of the severe drought region) ahead of the major, long-duration wind event arriving this weekend. #CottonwoodFire
Snapshot from NOAA Wildland Fire Data Portal showing large, high-intensity thermal detections and large smoke plumes in Utah and Nevada.
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