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Mitch Tobin

@mitchtobin.bsky.social
223 followers 206 following 104 posts

❄️ Journalist and photographer covering the snowpack, climate change, and Western water | ✍️ Author of snow.news |💧Co-director of waterdesk.org, University of Colorado Boulder | 🏔️ Based in Durango

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Mitch Tobin @mitchtobin.bsky.social · 11h
Tough to see: I recently took a drive and drone flight around the Ferris Fire burn scar, which spans nearly 65,000 acres in southwest Colorado. waterdesk.org/photos-ferri...
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Mitch Tobin @mitchtobin.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
New in The Water Desk’s free multimedia library: photos of the Dolores River and McPhee Reservoir in southwest Colorado. When I visited in early September, the reservoir was 42% full and the river—a tributary of the Colorado—was running low. waterdesk.org/photos-dolor...
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Western Water Assessment @wwanews.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
At the beginning of September, #streamflow was below average for most regional rivers, especially in Colorado and Utah. On September 9, record-low daily streamflow was recorded at 30 or more sites in Colorado, 10 sites in Utah, and two in Wyoming.
Below normal streamflow percentiles in Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming on September 9, 2026.
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Ian James @ianjames.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
"A red flag for the future." New research based on satellite data reveals California needs years of heavy snow to recoup groundwater. Scientists say it suggests recharging depleted aquifers will become more difficult as global warming brings more rain and less snow. www.latimes.com/environment/...
latimes.com
For the first time, scientists link heavy snow to groundwater in California
Scientists are finding that snowfall is more connected to water underground than we knew. Using satellite data, they found groundwater levels actually rise during big snow years, in contrast to most y...
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Mitch Tobin @mitchtobin.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
I joined The High Route podcast to discuss last season’s historic snow drought and what it means for the West. The show focuses on backcountry snow sports, so I was glad to share my perspective as both a skier and a journalist covering the snowpack. the-high-route.com/the-high-rou...
the-high-route.com
In this episode we speak with journalist Mitch Tobin. Tobin co-directs the Water Desk at CU Boulder’s Center for Environmental Journalism, and he also publishes his own excellent newsletter, Snow.News...
In this episode we speak with journalist Mitch Tobin. Tobin co-directs the Water Desk at CU Boulder’s Center for Environmental Journalism, and he also publishes his own excellent newsletter, Snow.News...
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Ian James @ianjames.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
Scientists estimate global warming more than quadrupled the odds of the West’s snow drought when compared to the preindustrial climate, before human greenhouse gas emissions. "The amount of snow we’re missing is about the size of Lake Mead." @mitchtobin.bsky.social waterdesk.org/2026/08/clim...
waterdesk.org
Climate change made the West’s snow drought far more likely—but it’s still not the new normal
Q&A with hydrologist Adrienne Marshall on why this past winter’s snowpack fell so low, how global warming increased the odds and what the future may hold
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
My commentary on Marshall et al 2026's climate change rapid attribution study on severe Western U.S. snow drought, which developed during record-warm 2026 winter & has contributed to widespread drought & wildfire-related impacts since, is now out. [Thread] www.pnas.org/doi/10....
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Mitch Tobin @mitchtobin.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
I had a very interesting—and sobering—conversation with Adrienne Marshall (@hydro-adrienne.bsky.social), lead author of a new study on climate change and the West’s 2026 snow drought. Some scary projections if emissions keep climbing—but that’s not a fait accompli. waterdesk.org/2026/08/clim...
waterdesk.org
Climate change made the West’s snow drought far more likely—but it’s still not the new normal
Q&A with hydrologist Adrienne Marshall on why this past winter’s snowpack fell so low, how global warming increased the odds and what the future may hold
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Luke Runyon @lukerunyon.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
The Colorado River's 15-Mile Reach is back down to record low flows -- 57 cfs this afternoon, an all-time low for this day in the period of record for this USGS gage.
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Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
2026 Western U.S. snow drought approx 1-in-7 year event in current climate, 1-in-30 year event in 19th century climate, and may be a biennial event later in the 21st century, study finds. Specifics vary by region. Read more at link below, or in quoted thread: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
pnas.org
The 2026 western US snow drought was about four times more likely due to climate change | PNAS
In the spring of 2026, anomalously low snow conditions in the western United States threatened winter recreation and water supplies. Here, we inves...
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Mitch Tobin @mitchtobin.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
The effects of last winter’s historic snow drought were easy to see—and feel—during my recent summer road trip through Colorado: smoky skies, depleted reservoirs, and virtually no snow left on a 14er. New photo essay: www.snow.news/p/photo-essa...
snow.news
Photo essay: The summer legacy of a low-snow winter
A Colorado road trip amid smoky skies, shrinking reservoirs, and the last remnants of the snowpack
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Chris Bianchi @bianchiweather.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
This was Colorado's hottest first half of a year on record...and it wasn't even close. Average statewide temp of 46.2° (NCEI data) made this our hottest January-June on record by more than a full degree. The impact of a warming climate is clear in the chart below. #COwx
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Mitch Tobin @mitchtobin.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
A smoky, shriveled Blue Mesa Reservoir, along Colorado’s Gunnison River, on July 1. More photos of this part of the Colorado River Storage Project are available in The Water Desk’s free multimedia library: waterdesk.org/photos-blue-...
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Climatologist49 @climatologist49.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
The just concluded 12-month snow season (July 1 to June 30) was the least snowy on record for both the Contiguous U.S. and for Europe. ❄️😭
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Luke Runyon @lukerunyon.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
When Colorado River experts descended on CU-Boulder in June, one high-profile negotiator pointed an accusatory finger at its quads: “There is a metric shit ton of turf grass on this campus.” How Western universities maintain their "oasis-like" feel amid epic drought: waterdesk.org/2026/07/how-...
waterdesk.org
How universities in the West justify staying green during drought
In early June, water experts gathered at the University of Colorado Boulder to talk about the future of the Colorado River.  The lifeline for 40 million people in the Southwest is in dire shape. Too m...
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Mitch Tobin @mitchtobin.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
The Gold Mountain Fire burns north of Ouray, Colorado, on July 1.
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Mitch Tobin @mitchtobin.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
Can AI help forecast if a storm will deliver fluffy powder or dense, heavy snow? My latest story for The Water Desk explains how scientists used hand-collected snowfall data to improve predictions of the snow-to-liquid ratio—a key driver of winter storm hazards. waterdesk.org/2026/05/mach...
waterdesk.org
Can AI forecast if snow will be fluffy or dense? Only with help from humans
Scientists use machine learning and hand-collected data to better predict snowfall and storm impacts
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Mitch Tobin @mitchtobin.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
Not to sound like a broken record, but this snow drought really has been record-breaking. Two recent updates from scientists drive home just how abysmal the West’s 2025-2026 snow season has been, with the snowpack hitting new lows in some datasets. www.snow.news/p/2026-snow-...
snow.news
How this snow drought rewrote the record books
Plus, San Juan Mountains aerial photos reveal season's dwindling snowpack
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Mitch Tobin @mitchtobin.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
Late-season storms brought much-needed moisture to parts of the West, but they didn’t come close to erasing the deficit. New at snow.news: an update on the snow drought — plus a remembrance of my dad, who helped inspire my love of journalism and weather. www.snow.news/p/snow-droug...
snow.news
Snowpack update: stark drought graphics
Plus: recent snowpack coverage and remembering my dad, who helped inspire my snow journalism
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Martha Pskowski @psskow.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
Elephant Butte Reservoir could go as low as 2% capacity this summer. I reported from Santa Fe on the Rio Grande Compact Commission meeting as Colorado, New Mexico and Texas contend with less water after a dismal winter and warm spring. @insideclimatenews.org insideclimatenews.org/news/2004202...
insideclimatenews.org
Facing Drought and Low Snowpack, Rio Grande States Expect a “Challenging” Year - Inside Climate News
Officials at the annual Rio Grande Compact Commission meeting said that they expect river flows this year to be among the lowest in history.
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Climatologist49 @climatologist49.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
🔥🔥🔥 The Nov-Mar 2025-26 cool/cold season was anything but cold for most of the Contiguous U.S. It was easily the warmest on record (1895-96 to present) overall. Many individual states shattered their record warmest Nov-Mar.
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Murphy Woodhouse @murphywoodhouse.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
The latest monthly fire season outlook is up, and it's a doozy. Forecasts look similar a year ago, and the season ended up being below average in terms of acreage, so that's worth bearing in mind. But with the historic snow drought, this could be a big one. www.nifc.gov/nicc-files/p...
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Mitch Tobin @mitchtobin.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
April 1 is a key milestone for the West’s snowpack. This year’s data paint a disturbing portrait of the historic snow drought. My latest at snow.news: www.snow.news/p/snowpack-a...
snow.news
No fooling: April 1 is a cruel joke for the West's snowpack
At the water year's midpoint, meager snow cover raises alarms for the months ahead
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Dakota Smith @weatherdak.bsky.social · 29/03/2026
Colorado mountain snow: average year vs. this year. Record low snowpack by a HUGE margin.
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Brad Udall @bradudall.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
This is a graph of snowpack above Lake Powell using 104 snow measuring stations. It was 9 inches of water on March 7, now 6 inches. Other dry years shown.There is no historical analog to this.
Colorado River snowpack evolution since Oct 2025. Melt started about March 7.  Down to 6
Inches now from 9 inches then. There is no historical analog.
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Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
From @mitchtobin.bsky.social: "When our snowpack is meager—or entirely missing—it underscores how much we depend on this seasonal accumulation of ice crystals, even during the summer and far beyond the region."
open.substack.com
Missing snowpack reveals West’s vulnerabilities
This season's snow drought is a chilling harbinger in our warming climate
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Colorado Climate Center @climate.colostate.edu · 23/03/2026
Last week's record-setting heat took a major toll on Colorado's snowpack (which was already in bad shape). We're currently sitting at 44% of average with ~2 weeks to go until our average peak. Little to no precipitation is expected over the next 7 days. #cowx
Colorado statewide snowpack graphic, illustrating the 2026 snowpack relative to historical data. The 2026 data shows a steep drop in snow water equivalent over the past week.
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Luke Runyon @lukerunyon.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
Reporters! If you need Lake Powell/Bullfrog pics for your stories, check out this album from 2022 with free-to-use photos for news stories: www.waterdesk.photos/Utah/Bullfro...
waterdesk.photos
Bullfrog Marina at Lake Powell, October 2022 - Water Desk
Aerial and ground-based photos of Lake Powell's Bullfrog Marina in southern Utah. Photos by Alexander Heilner/The Water Desk with aerial support from LightHawk.
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Mitch Tobin @mitchtobin.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
After a dismal season for snow accumulation in most of the West, what little snowpack remains is set to dwindle amid a stunning March heat wave. New post at snow.news has the details on the deepening snow drought and the implications: www.snow.news/p/march-heat...
snow.news
March heat wave: early melt-out
The West's snow drought deepens due to record-breaking temperatures
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Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
Hydrologists described California's snowmelt the past three weeks as "unprecedented" and say the snowpack, already the lowest in more than a decade, will shrink further during a record-shattering heat wave next week. #CAwx
sfchronicle.com
California’s ‘unprecedented’ snowmelt will only get worse from heat wave
Lake Tahoe went from blizzard to dirt in weeks amid rates of snowmelt that hydrologists described as historic. And now comes a record-shattering March heat wave.
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Mitch Tobin @mitchtobin.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
❄️ Another bleak snow drought update as the West faces a March heat wave: "Snow drought worsened from February into early March due to record warmth, despite near-normal precipitation across much of the West." www.drought.gov/drought-stat...
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The Colorado Sun ☀️ @coloradosun.com · 11/03/2026
Colorado’s dust-free snow is a bright spot in an otherwise poor winter
coloradosun.com
Colorado’s dust-free snow is a bright spot in an otherwise poor winter
Storms drop dust from the Southwest onto Colorado's snowpack each year, except this one. The clean, white snow will be a boon, if it lasts.
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Colorado Climate Center @climate.colostate.edu · 10/03/2026
Unfortunately, not much good news to share in our February state climate summary. According to NOAA data, it was the warmest February in 132 years of records. Mountain snowpack remains at the lowest level in over 40 years. Several locations set new monthly high temperature records for February. 1/4
February 2026
Colorado Monthly Climate Summary
statewide departure from 1901-2000 avg: +9.2°F statewide departure from 1991-2020 avg: +7.6°F
statewide rank: 1st warmest/132nd coldest
Warmest February on record statewide
Snowpack remains lowest in over 40 years
Several locations, including Denver, Fort Collins, Akron, and Colorado Springs shatter records for most 60°F+ days
Multiple grass fires, including ones near Boulder, Thornton, Matheson, and Wiggins
Maximum daily precipitation (1.8" at Spud
Mountain)
Minimum daily temperature (-27°F
in Taylor Park)
Maximum daily temperature
(85°F in Pueblo and Campo)
Maximum daily snowfall 12.5" near Bayfield)
February 2026 Temperature Rank (from NCEI nclimgrid)
Statewide Temperature and Precipitation Ranks for February 2026 (based on 1895-2026 data)
1st warmest (record warmest)
37th driest (below average)
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Mitch Tobin @mitchtobin.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
The snowpack is below normal in every river basin in the West. This March 8 map shows that a few watersheds are above 90% (green), but all that red shading indicates less than 50% of the 1991-2020 median for snow water equivalent. www.nrcs.usda.gov/programs-ini...
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Mitch Tobin @mitchtobin.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
5 snow stories on my radar ❄️ Drought, climate, and the deadly Sierra avalanche 🛌 Preserving snow with blankets 🏔️ Reintroducing wolverines to Colorado 📉 Western snowpack update ☃️ Our storm of the season? Read the full roundup at snow.news 👇 www.snow.news/p/5-snow-sto...
snow.news
5 snow stories on my radar
Avalanches, snow blankets, wolverine reintroduction, a snowpack update, and the storm of the (sad) season
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Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
From @mitchtobin.bsky.social, snowmelt is responsible for 73% of the runoff from the Sierra Nevada (and 74% in the Rockies) and a large proportion of the water for the West's major reservoirs. mavensnotebook.com/2025/02/03/w...
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Mitch Tobin @mitchtobin.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
This morning's total lunar eclipse.
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High Country News @highcountrynews.org · 24/02/2026
As the climate changes, ski resorts have begun relying more on machine-made snow, which comes with environmental consequences and limitations.
hcn.org
Snowmaking could be the future of skiing. But at what cost? - High Country News
As the climate changes, ski resorts have begun relying more on machine-made snow, which comes with environmental consequences and limitations.
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Mitch Tobin @mitchtobin.bsky.social · 17/02/2026
Some impressive snowfall totals are in the forecast. The West's snowpack could sure use it. The map below, via Pivotal Weather, shows the projected 48-hour accumulation from the National Weather Service. home.pivotalweather.com
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David Krause @davidkrause.bsky.social · 12/02/2026
It's incredibly thin in the high country, and here's a really great analysis on what this dismal #Colorado snowpack could mean down the line. A quintet of @coloradosun.com reporters teamed up to break down concerns across the state. #water #drought
coloradosun.com
All of the reasons Colorado's horrible snowpack is so problematic
Snow showers in this week’s forecast offer a dose of relief, but they won’t be enough to get the Colorado out of a tough, dry year.
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Russ Schumacher @rschumacher.cloud · 10/02/2026
if the Colorado snowpack numbers from SNOTEL stations (52% of median) aren't low enough for you, they get even worse when looking at data across all elevations. Using the University of Arizona's SWE dataset, we're now below one-third of the usual snowpack (32.5%) as of February 9. #cowx
map of Colorado snowpack as a percent of the 1991-2020 median from the University of Arizona dataset. Statewide, it's 32.5% of median.Time series of Colorado snow water equivalent for all years from 1982-2026. This year is the lowest in that timeframe, at 32% of the 1991-2020 median.
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Mitch Tobin @mitchtobin.bsky.social · 10/02/2026
How much is the West’s snowpack worth? I dug into research that puts a price tag on the water stored in snow—and projects how climate change will alter that value. Snow also sustains ecosystems and economies while supporting winter recreation and cooling the planet. waterdesk.org/2026/02/west...
waterdesk.org
Western U.S. snowpack is worth trillions of dollars
Putting a price tag on the water stored in the region’s high-elevation frozen reservoir
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Colorado Climate Center @climate.colostate.edu · 09/02/2026
The mountain snowpack so far this winter is in bad shape. Long-time Coloradans might remember two other terrible winters for snow: 1976-77 and 1980-81. Our latest blog post takes a look at how this year compares to those snow droughts of the past. #cowx
climate.colostate.edu
How does this year compare to the snow droughts of the past? - Colorado Climate Blog
Colorado’s mountain snowpack is in bad shape this year. It’s been extremely warm, and snowstorms have been few and far between. Based on data from the SNOTEL network, the amount of water stored in the...
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Conrad @conradswanson.bsky.social · 06/02/2026
Buckle up, folks. Looks like we're in for a doozy. www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news...
seattletimes.com
WA’s snowpack sits at the third-lowest level in the last 40 years
Washington's snowpack sits at its third-lowest level in generations. There's still time this winter for more snow, but current trends aren’t bringing optimism.
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Climatologist49 @climatologist49.bsky.social · 06/02/2026
How are we doing on snowfall this season in the Contiguous U.S. through January? Well, it's the lowest combined total thru Jan since 1943-44. While places in the South and East that average 5" to 20" have done pretty well, most everyplace out West (MUCH higher averages), have had little to no snow.
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Mitch Tobin @mitchtobin.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
More grim news about the West's snow drought: 🛰️ Lowest Feb. 1 snow cover in the satellite record (since 2001) 📉 Record-low Feb. 1 statewide snowpack in Oregon, Colorado, and Utah ⚠️ “A Dry, Warm January Leaves the West With the Worst Snowpack in Decades” www.drought.gov/drought-stat...
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Maven's Notebook @mavensnotebook.com · 05/02/2026
The American West’s snowpack is valuable for many reasons, but can its worth be calculated in dollars and cents? And how is climate change affecting that value? #cawater mavensnotebook.com/2026/02/05/w...
mavensnotebook.com
WATER DESK: Western U.S. snowpack is worth trillions of dollars
Putting a price tag on the water stored in the region’s high-elevation frozen reservoir By Mitch Tobin, The Water Desk The American West’s snowpack is valuable for many reasons. Snowmelt supplies much...
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Jeff Lukas @lukasclimate.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
Given the latest NOAA CBRFC inflow forecast for Lake Powell, I dusted off this plot from my Twitter days and updated it. The Feb 1st outlook for Colorado River flows hasn't been this poor in >35 years. Even if wetter weather ahead, bottom-10 outcome likely. h/t @glenwoodrek.bsky.social
Graph showing the NOAA Colorado Basin River Forecast Center's forecasts of April to July inflows to Lake Powell from 1991 to 2026, with colored lines showing how each season's forecast evolved from January through July. The latest Forecast, February 2026, is the lowest outlook for this time of year since at least 1991.
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Mitch Tobin @mitchtobin.bsky.social · 04/02/2026
I summarized 5 scientific studies that examine how climate change is reshaping the Winter Olympics. New post at snow.news also includes an update on the West’s meager snowpack. www.snow.news/p/winter-oly...
snow.news
The Winter Olympics vs. climate change
Plus: an update on the snowpack (bad) and photos from a rare powder day (good)
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Mitch Tobin @mitchtobin.bsky.social · 03/02/2026
Widespread bleak readings for the West's snowpack — and the water it contains. All of the red dots on this map represent monitoring stations where snow water equivalent was below the 15th percentile on February 2. nwcc-apps.sc.egov.usda.gov/imap/
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