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Charles C. Lanfear

@clanfear.bsky.social
388 followers 299 following 131 posts

Associate Professor, Institute of Criminology, University of Cambridge Social control, crime, quant methods, R coding clanfear.github.io

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Reposted by Charles C. Lanfear
Jose Pina-Sánchez 🇪🇺 @jpinasanchez.eurosky.social · 5h
If you want to learn the ABC, D & E, of Survey and Questionnaire design, check out this neat little course that our colleague Peter King has put together in collaboration with the White Rose DTP and @srmleeds.bsky.social: wrdtp.ac.uk/methods-reso...
wrdtp.ac.uk
Survey & Questionnaire Design: The ABCDE Framework
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Charles C. Lanfear @clanfear.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Now out at JQC by my PhD student John Hall and Justin Nix: "[NYPD] Pursuit escalation produced clear and attributable collision harms while providing no credible evidence of crime reduction." link.springer.com/article/10.1...
link.springer.com
The Fast and the Spurious: A Causal Evaluation of NYPD’s Pursuit Policy, 2022–2025 - Journal of Quantitative Criminology
Objectives This study examines the consequences of the New York City Police Department’s late-2022 operational shift that sharply expanded vehicle pursuits. We evaluate whether the surge in pursuits a...
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Reposted by Charles C. Lanfear
Jose Pina-Sánchez 🇪🇺 @jpinasanchez.eurosky.social · 21/09/2026
Excited to share our new programme of Social Research Methods at Leeds @srmleeds.bsky.social, @emrinke.bsky.social & Jade Parker. Speakers include: Peter King, @janselby.bsky.social, @rsolymosi.bsky.social, @rjbeecham.bsky.social, Martina Feilzer, Sam Langton, Ieva Skyte, and Ana Manzano.
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Charles C. Lanfear @clanfear.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
For those at Eurocrim, come see our panel at 9AM tomorrow (Friday). Novel data, novel methods, diverse topics. I'll be presenting a crime against multilevel modeling that I've been thinking about for a few years. Come gaze into the abyss!
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Reposted by Charles C. Lanfear
Kieran Healy @kjhealy.co · 07/09/2026
Writing some scientific workflow slides for this week’s MPTC class.
Research workflow for those branches of the sciences where the important thing is to become famous.
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Reposted by Charles C. Lanfear
Zora Hauser @zorahauser.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
"Wir sehen heute Probleme, die wir vor zehn Jahren noch nicht wahrgenommen haben – was aber nicht heißt, dass sie damals nicht bereits bestanden" Zusammen mit P. Neumann habe ich für @internationalepolitik.de über org. Kriminalität in Europa gesprochen 👇 internationalepolitik.de/de/deutschla...
internationalepolitik.de
„Deutschland war lange ein Paradies für Geldwäsche“
Zora Hauser und Peter R. Neumann im Gespräch
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Reposted by Charles C. Lanfear
Jose Pina-Sánchez 🇪🇺 @jpinasanchez.eurosky.social · 02/09/2026
New short article with @ianloader.bsky.social and @alextrinidad.eurosky.social, 'On the importance of subjective perceptions of safety: Limits of the 2026 UK road safety strategy'. We predict that the new strategy will fail to encourage active travel, serena.sharepress.it/tema/article...
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Charles C. Lanfear @clanfear.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Oregon State University's School of Public Policy is hiring a tenure track assistant prof in Crime, Law, and Deviance. This is the program that started my academic career; I did my undergrad and master's here and the foundation of my quant methods training. Great department and lovely place to live.
oregonstate.wd501.myworkdayjobs.com
Assistant Professor: Sociology - Crime, Law, and Deviance
Department: College of Liberal Arts Special Instructions to Applicants: When applying you will be required to attach the following electronic documents: 1) A Curriculum Vitae 2) A Cover letter indicat...
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Reposted by Charles C. Lanfear
Jim Waterson @jim.londoncentric.media · 25/08/2026
Hahaha fucking helllllllll just read this. So many thoughts. Like “this is how you actually do money laundering, not on Oxford Street” and “British deference to small businesses being honest and taxpaying is the problem”. (Writes a small business owner.) www.theguardian.com/news/ng-inte...
theguardian.com
The other Post Office scandal: how organised crime launders money on the high street
The long read: Hundreds of millions of pounds of dirty money are being deposited at post offices every year. So why are the police reluctant to investigate the scale of the problem?
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Reposted by Charles C. Lanfear
Christiaan Monden @cmonden.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
Do you have some exciting research ideas? Apply for a three-year postdoc position in sociology at Nuffield College starting September 2027. Apply by 21/9. www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/the-college/...
nuffield.ox.ac.uk
Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellowships in Sociology (two posts) - Nuffield College Oxford University
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David Buil-Gil @davidbuil.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Are you around Manchester on 7 October? We've invited @iainbrennan.bsky.social to deliver a public seminar at @criminologyuom.bsky.social titled “Focused deterrence: Evaluating America's most successful violence intervention in an English context”. Registrations: eventbrite.co.uk/e/prof-iain-...
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IUSSP @iussp.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
N-IUSSP: Change is the only constant: living arrangements in the United States, 1850–2021, by Ginevra Floridi and Albert Esteve www.niussp.org/family-and-h... #demography #populationstudies
niussp.org
Change is the only constant: living arrangements in the United States, 1850–2021 - N-IUSSP
Living arrangements are the reflection of demographic and social change. Using historical census data from the United States, Ginevra Floridi and Albert Esteve summarise 170 years of change in househo...
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Reposted by Charles C. Lanfear
Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 12/08/2026
How much violence is there in London compared to the US? The Economist website covers our research on benchmarking crime in London against other global cities. www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
economist.com
Is Europe safer than America?
A novel dataset provides some surprising answers
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Reposted by Charles C. Lanfear
Nick Huntington-Klein @nickchk.com · 30/07/2026
One of my empirical-work econ takes is that I think academia should be *more* open to publishing work based on best-we-can-do weak data, as long as there's really no other way to address the question and that work is very clear about what it can and can't actually say.
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Institute of Criminology, University of Cambridge @cambcriminology.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
We remember Professor Andrew von Hirsch, whose work shaped thinking on punishment, justice and criminal responsibility. A valued member of the Institute of Criminology and the Faculty of Law, he leaves an enduring legacy in his ideas, teaching and generosity. www.crim.cam.ac.uk/news/andreas...
A photo of Professor Andrew von Hirsch, sitting at a desk and writing notes.
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Reposted by Charles C. Lanfear
Evelina Akimova @evakimova.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
📄 New paper in PNAS! Using data from ~40,000 Norwegian trios, we extend evocative gene–environment correlation to family demography. Accounting for parental PGIs, most traits showed no associations, but children's ADHD PGI predicted parental separation. www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
pnas.org
PNAS
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), a peer reviewed journal of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) - an authoritative source of high-impact, original research that broadly spans...
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Reposted by Charles C. Lanfear
Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 20/07/2026
New paper out now 🥳 When psychologists discuss generalisability, they often refer to vague notions of representativeness. We provide an accessible intro to the total survey error framework as a tool to reason about this more rigorously. w @taymalsalti.bsky.social @ruben.the100.ci >
Thinking Clearly About Sampling and Representation With the Total Survey Error Framework

Collecting a sample that represents the population of interest well constitutes a challenge across the social and behavioural sciences. Psychology in particular frequently relies on convenience samples—most notably students and, increasingly, online participants—with a tendency to either (implicitly) assume representativeness without substantive justification, or to acknowledge a lack of it only in passing. In contrast, researchers rarely engage with the actual implications for their inferences, which undermines the generalisability of psychological findings. Critically, representativeness must be defined with respect to variables relevant to the target of inference, rather than superficial demographic diversity. Here we present the Total Survey Error (TSE) framework as a methodological tool that systematically addresses the multifaceted sources of error—particularly those related to representation—that emerge throughout the research cycle. Although TSE originated in survey research, its principles are broadly applicable to any psychological study seeking inference from sample to population. We offer practical strategies for identifying, preventing, and mitigating representation errors to improve the credibility and generalisability of psychological research.

Illustration of the total survey error framework with the representation strand highlighted. It shows how coverage error, sampling error and non-response error arise during the sampling process.
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Charles C. Lanfear @clanfear.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
Interesting criminologically relevant work theorizing and empirically examining state vs. crime group control of territory in Latin American cities. Politics work like this (and work on social order broadly) is underappreciated in modern criminology's social ecology and control subfield.
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Sociology at Oxford @sociologyoxford.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
💡🚨 We’re seeking a Postdoc for a project on the socio-economic factors driving youth hacking & cybercrime! We’re looking for someone with a strong mixed-methods background in cybercrime, criminology, sociology, education or related fields. Apply ➡️ my.corehr.com/pls/uoxrecru...
We're hiring a Postdoctoral Research Associate. Deadline: 1 September 2026
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Charles C. Lanfear @clanfear.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Have a little editorial on a recent field experiment by MacDonald and crew on street cleanings to reduce gun violence that had (predictably) null results. Here I argue for more analytical and mechanistic theory in interventions against crime and violence. ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/10.2105/...
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Charles C. Lanfear @clanfear.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
Now at JDLCC: @oliveiratr.bsky.social and I's accessible (but opinionated) guidance on testing theories with reciprocal effects using panel models. We argue for centering theory, making sure your data can answer your question, and defaulting to robust estimators. link.springer.com/article/10.1...
Reciprocal causal relationships are a common feature of criminological theories. For example, stable employment may reduce offending while offending may lead to unemployment, and perceived disorder may increase fear of crime while fear of crime may increase sensitivity to signs of disorder. When multiple observations over time are available, cross-lagged panel models are commonly used to estimate these reciprocal effects. Yet this is often done without careful attention to how they map on to the theoretical process they are meant to capture or whether key assumptions of the models are satisfied. This may result in estimates that are not substantively meaningful or are biased or even reversed in sign. Reciprocal relationships also pose challenges for causal assumptions based on graphical tools; theories that posit reciprocal causation often rely on underlying macro–micro mechanisms not explicitly represented in empirical models. We provide guidance on how to align theory, model specification, and choice of estimator, illustrated with two motivating examples: the relationship between employment and offending and the relationship between perceived disorder and fear of crime. We distinguish theoretical reciprocality—in which feedback processes are of substantive interest—from reverse causality—in which reciprocal processes are a nuisance threatening identification of an effect of interest—and discuss three common issues for cross-lagged panel models: unobserved time-stable heterogeneity, improperly specified temporal order, and insufficient variation over time. We conclude by reminding researchers of the importance of aligning methods with theory in longitudinal research.
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Charles C. Lanfear @clanfear.bsky.social · 20/06/2026
Very unfortunate. Much of the work I've done with my colleagues and mentors over the last few years was based on data collected using NCGVR funding.
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Reposted by Charles C. Lanfear
European Network for Open Criminology @opencriminology.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
📢 Nominations are open for the 2026 Open Criminology Award! Recognising outstanding contributions. 🆕 New for 2026: 🏆 ECR Award (€1,500) 🏆 Established Researcher Award (€2,000)* 📅 Deadline: 16 July 2026 🔗 esc-enoc.github.io/open-crim-aw... #OpenCriminology #OpenScience *Subject to final agreement.
esc-enoc.github.io
Open Criminology Award – European Network for Open Criminology
This document describes the terms of reference of the Open Criminology Awards of the European Network for Open Criminology (ENOC)
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Charles C. Lanfear @clanfear.bsky.social · 07/06/2026
A journal article has finally pushed me over the threshold of writing comments in all caps. Utter exasperation.
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Reposted by Charles C. Lanfear
Amy Nivette @nivette.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
New preprint! Manuel Eisner and I argue that we need to take the specification of time more seriously in criminological research! We offer an overview of concepts of time, specifying temporal processes and effects, and how to improve our empirical knowledge. 👇👇 osf.io/preprints/so...
osf.io
OSF
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Charles C. Lanfear @clanfear.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
My approach to methods lecturing lately
Slide saying "I offer no solution. I just want it to haunt your dreams."
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Charles C. Lanfear @clanfear.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
It took a dozen German airport security staff only 20 minutes to crack the case of my one man shoe tree smuggling operation.
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 30/04/2026
They're looking for people with strong quant skills (psych/sociology/related fields) to work on subjective well-being across the lifecourse at Uni Lausanne! 1 PhD position + 1 Postdoc position career5.successfactors.eu/career?caree... career5.successfactors.eu/career?caree...
career5.successfactors.eu
Opportunités de carrière : PhD Position in Subjective Well-Being Across the Life Course (22762)
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Thiago R. Oliveira @oliveiratr.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
I’m teaching a longitudinal data analysis course at the @methodsmcr.bsky.social Summer School this summer. Reach out if you’re interested
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 22/04/2026
Good news everyone 🥳 Our (w @vincentab.bsky.social) primer on models as prediction machines (with the marginaleffects package) is finally officially published!> journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
journals.sagepub.com
Models as Prediction Machines: How to Convert Confusing Coefficients Into Clear Quantities - Julia M. Rohrer, Vincent Arel-Bundock, 2026
Psychological researchers usually make sense of regression models by interpreting coefficient estimates directly. This works well enough for simple linear model...
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Johann Koehler @jkoehler.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
🚨New paper klaxon!🚨 How does a police department manage to claim that it's "making progress"? And how does it do so even when people complain about its poor performance, corruption, or whatever else? sociologicalscience.com/articles-v13... @chicagopolice.bsky.social
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Sociological Science @sociologicalsci.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
NEW: Tony Cheng, Johann Koehler, "Making Progress in the Chicago Police Department, 1862–2024" sociologicalscience.com/articles-v13...
sociologicalscience.com
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Alejandro Montenegro @aemonten.bsky.social · 11/04/2026
Gold OA is a terrible model that has done a lot of harm. news.cancerresearchuk.org/2026/04/01/w...
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Demography - the flagship journal of PAA @readdemography.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
“170 Years of Change in Living Arrangements”: @gfloridi.bsky.social & A. Esteve explore the role of mortality decline over time & encourage social scientists to consider how extended life spans can shape arrangements. @uoe-sps.bsky.social @cedemografia.bsky.social read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...
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Vital City @vitalcitynyc.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
Join Vital City, @nyuwagner.bsky.social and the @russellsagefdn.bsky.social for a conversation between New Yorker writer Adam Gopnik and Robert Sampson about his new book, “Marked by Time." RSVP: www.eventbrite.com/e/vital-city...
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LSE Methodology @lsemethodology.bsky.social · 06/04/2026
🎓️ We're hiring an LSE Fellow in Qualitative Methods We are seeking to appoint an individual with established research interests and teaching experience in qualitative methods🧑‍🤝‍🧑 Applications close👉️ jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
graphic that reads 'we're hiring: LSE Fellow in Qualitative Methods'
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LSE Methodology @lsemethodology.bsky.social · 06/04/2026
We're hiring an LSE Fellow in Advanced Quantitative Methods‼️ We are seeking an individual with established research interests and teaching experience in advanced quantitative methods and computational social science🚨 Apply here before 26 April👉️ jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
graphic reading 'lse fellow in advanced quantitative methods, applications close 26 april 2026'
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Wonkhe @wonkhe.bsky.social · 22/03/2026
NEW on Wonkhe: Students aren't confused about AI – they're making rational choices in a system that has removed the incentives to learn. Jim Dickinson and Mack Marshall preview findings from new research on learning in an age of AI buff.ly/4TKftU3
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 17/03/2026
Working hypothesis: If you're doing research and don't occasionally have a small existential crisis, either you've been blessed to work in an exceptional field (do tell which one it is!), or maybe you're being a bit naive.
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Charles C. Lanfear @clanfear.bsky.social · 07/03/2026
Somehow some deep wisdom in Reddit post on confronting bad research:
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Charles C. Lanfear @clanfear.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
Why does Editorial Manager even have password-based login? I don't think I've ever successfully gotten into it without resetting my password.
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Chris Bail @chrisbail.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
Want to learn about computational social science *for free* and identify new research partners across academic fields? Apply to one of the 2026 Summer Institutes in Computational Social Science (described in yellow in the attached map) here: sicss.io/locations
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Marti Rovira @mrovira.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
📢 Hiring: Postdoc in Criminology / Sociology at UPF Join @demosocupf.bsky.social as a Postdoc: 📊 Focus: Evaluating penal interventions in Intimate Partner Violence (IPV). 📍 Location: Barcelona, Spain. 🗓️ Deadline: March 15th, 2026. www.upf.edu/web/politiqu...
upf.edu
REF: CPIS-INV-INDF-2026-02. Postdoctoral Researcher in Violence Against Women in Intimate Relations: Longitudinal Analysis of Linked Crime, Employment, and Health Administrative Records. Socio-Demogra...
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Jose Pina-Sánchez 🇪🇺 @jpinasanchez.eurosky.social · 02/03/2026
'In Defence of Walkability as a Crime Prevention Strategy'. New preprint with @ianloader.bsky.social We challenge the consensus that walkable neighbourhoods are more criminogenic. We highlight two flaws in the literature: i) overreliance on police statistics; and ii) neglect of motoring offences.
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Andrew Morral @andrewmorral.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
So damaging to our scientific organizations and young scientists trying to get started in this environment.
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Tim Newburn @timnewburn.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
JOB: Lecturer (Education) in Psychology and Criminology, Kings College London www.jobs.ac.uk/job/DQQ332/l...
jobs.ac.uk
Lecturer (Education) in Criminology at King's College London
Recruiting now: Lecturer (Education) in Criminology on jobs.ac.uk. Click for details and explore more academic job opportunities on the top job board
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Institute of Criminology, University of Cambridge @cambcriminology.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
Our next Lent Term public seminar will take place tomorrow, with Dr Helen Kosc speaking about ‘Desistance as Temporal Work’, based on her survey of 150 prison-leavers from HMP Bullingdon. There is still space available on this seminar. Book your place now: www.crim.cam.ac.uk/events/desis...
A poster advertising a seminar given by Dr Helen Kosc at the Institute of Criminology, on 26 February 2026 at 5PM.
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Institute of Criminology, University of Cambridge @cambcriminology.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
Join Dr Helen Kosc in just under two weeks' time for our next Lent Term public seminar, where she will discuss 'Desistance as temporal work'. Based on her research into 150 men released from HMP Bullingdon, she will explore what desistance entails. Book here: www.crim.cam.ac.uk/events/desis...
A poster advertising a public seminar by Dr Helen Kosc, from the Institute of Criminology.
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