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Thiago R. Oliveira

@oliveiratr.bsky.social
527 followers 213 following 58 posts

Senior Lecturer in Criminology, University of Manchester I do research on policing, legal cynicism, procedural justice, and social inequality. I like quantitative methods, causal inference, longitudinal data, and analytical sociology. thiagoroliveira.com

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Reposted by Thiago R. Oliveira
Quantitude the Podcast @quantitude.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Join us tomorrow…
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Christiaan Monden @cmonden.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
Do you have some exciting research ideas? Apply for a three-year postdoc position in sociology at Nuffield College starting September 2027. Apply by 21/9. www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/the-college/...
nuffield.ox.ac.uk
Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellowships in Sociology (two posts) - Nuffield College Oxford University
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David Buil-Gil @davidbuil.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Are you around Manchester on 7 October? We've invited @iainbrennan.bsky.social to deliver a public seminar at @criminologyuom.bsky.social titled “Focused deterrence: Evaluating America's most successful violence intervention in an English context”. Registrations: eventbrite.co.uk/e/prof-iain-...
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Per Engzell @pengzell.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
"To account for unobserved heterogeneity, we include random intercepts..."
A stop sign and a thinking face emoji with the caption: Stop reading, start thinking
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University of Manchester School of Social Sciences @uomsoss.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
New research from @criminologyuom.bsky.social finds structural challenges continue to hamper the UK's response to economic crime. The study identifies how better collaboration, clearer responsibilities and improved data sharing could strengthen multi-agency efforts. Read more below. ⬇️ 1/2
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 31/07/2026
It’s one thing to separate within- and between-person associations with the aim to rule out time-invariant confounding, but an entirely different one to separate within-and between-person association and then interpret the between-person associations causally anyway 😭
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Thiago R. Oliveira @oliveiratr.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
New methods paper with @clanfear.bsky.social on all things reverse causality, reciprocal relationships, longitudinal data, and cross-lagged panel models
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Charles C. Lanfear @clanfear.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
Now at JDLCC: @oliveiratr.bsky.social and I's accessible (but opinionated) guidance on testing theories with reciprocal effects using panel models. We argue for centering theory, making sure your data can answer your question, and defaulting to robust estimators. link.springer.com/article/10.1...
Reciprocal causal relationships are a common feature of criminological theories. For example, stable employment may reduce offending while offending may lead to unemployment, and perceived disorder may increase fear of crime while fear of crime may increase sensitivity to signs of disorder. When multiple observations over time are available, cross-lagged panel models are commonly used to estimate these reciprocal effects. Yet this is often done without careful attention to how they map on to the theoretical process they are meant to capture or whether key assumptions of the models are satisfied. This may result in estimates that are not substantively meaningful or are biased or even reversed in sign. Reciprocal relationships also pose challenges for causal assumptions based on graphical tools; theories that posit reciprocal causation often rely on underlying macro–micro mechanisms not explicitly represented in empirical models. We provide guidance on how to align theory, model specification, and choice of estimator, illustrated with two motivating examples: the relationship between employment and offending and the relationship between perceived disorder and fear of crime. We distinguish theoretical reciprocality—in which feedback processes are of substantive interest—from reverse causality—in which reciprocal processes are a nuisance threatening identification of an effect of interest—and discuss three common issues for cross-lagged panel models: unobserved time-stable heterogeneity, improperly specified temporal order, and insufficient variation over time. We conclude by reminding researchers of the importance of aligning methods with theory in longitudinal research.
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Thiago R. Oliveira @oliveiratr.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
Word is out, so might as well: I have now been promoted to Senior Lecturer (Associate Prof if you only speak 🇺🇸), which is obviously alarming. Apparently I'm good at hiding the fact that I have no idea what I'm doing.
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 08/06/2026
Now that's what I call a spicy opeing: Understanding mechanisms is not a research question.
"Understanding Mechanisms?"
"Understanding" is not a research question
- how do you verify understanding?
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 15/05/2026
Note to self: don’t complain about German university bureaucracy in front of people working at uk universities
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Thiago R. Oliveira @oliveiratr.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
I’m teaching a longitudinal data analysis course at the @methodsmcr.bsky.social Summer School this summer. Reach out if you’re interested
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David Buil-Gil @davidbuil.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
‘Once Bitten, Twice Shy? Understanding Repeat and Multiple Victimization in Business Cybercrime’ is now published in Crime & Delinquency. This is Yijie’s first PhD paper; show her some love! 🎉
journals.sagepub.com
Once Bitten, Twice Shy? Understanding Repeat and Multiple Victimization in Business Cybercrime - Yijie He, David Buil-Gil, Jon Davies, Emma Barrett, 2026
This study examines repeat victimization (RV) and multiple victimization (MV) in business cybercrime using data from the 2024 UK Cyber Security Breaches Survey ...
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Jose Pina-Sánchez 🇪🇺 @jpinasanchez.eurosky.social · 28/04/2026
We have a programme for the '2026 Cars & Crime Symposium' jmpinasanchez.github.io/static/Progr... It should give us a nice couple of days of learning about the criminal dimension of car culture. Preprints of the papers in preparation will be uploaded here: jmpinasanchez.github.io/outreach.html
jmpinasanchez.github.io
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David Buil-Gil @davidbuil.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
New conceptual paper in Crime Science (with absolute legend Ken Pease). We revisit the role of time use in criminological theory and propose a framework to integrate key principles across existing theories doi.org/10.1186/s401...
doi.org
Unstructured spare time and crime: toward an integrative model - Crime Science
Criminological theorizing over the past half century has shown little convergence or integration. Three strands of criminological theory can be identified: dispositional approaches (emphasizing self-control, social learning, biological, and morality theories), ecological theories (emphasizing the crime consequences of dysfunctional communities), and opportunity theories (focusing primarily on places and artifacts that enable or facilitate crime). The discipline’s progress has not resulted in a convergence of theoretical propositions. This article offers a potential route toward reconciling these approaches, provisionally termed the Unstructured Spare Time model of crime. It begins with an overview of relevant criminological theories and highlights enduring tensions between individual- and opportunity-based approaches. It then reviews previous integrative efforts, noting their contributions and limitations. The Unstructured Spare Time model is introduced as a conceptual bridge among these traditions. The model posits that unstructured spare time, at the level of individuals, geographic areas, and time periods, is shaped by personal factors, broader social changes, and the spatial organization of cities and towns. This unstructured time, in turn, influences both individual readiness for crime and the availability of crime opportunities. The model advances a dynamic view of how time-use patterns mediate the relationship between personal traits, community conditions, structural factors, and exposure to and engagement in crime. Its central contribution lies in focusing explanation and, by extension, prevention and intervention strategies on a single, observable factor: unstructured spare time. The article summarizes empirical support from recent studies and concludes by outlining directions for future research and refinement of the model.
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Johann Koehler @jkoehler.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
🚨New paper klaxon!🚨 How does a police department manage to claim that it's "making progress"? And how does it do so even when people complain about its poor performance, corruption, or whatever else? sociologicalscience.com/articles-v13... @chicagopolice.bsky.social
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 05/03/2026
Find someone who believes in you like researchers believe in pre-post differences as valid treatment effect estimates.
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Emma Monk @monkemma.bsky.social · 01/02/2026
Ok, let’s do this🙄 We’ll start with an explainer covering: 🕒What is a 15-minute city 🏫What on Earth is going on with Oxford 👽Where the conspiracy theories have come from And then we’ll look at the Telegraph article 🧵 1/25
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C. Thi Nguyen @add-hawk.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
Last term I tried an experiment: I walked into my Tech and Design Ethics class, admitted that I had *no idea* what to do about ChatGPT - so I would let them figure it out. As in: their first project was to decide and write the ChatGPT policy for the class. Here's what happened:
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David Buil-Gil @davidbuil.bsky.social · 11/01/2026
Paper out with @jpinasanchez.bsky.social & @marcelo-f-aebi.bsky.social in @socialindicators.bsky.social 🔔 How often do we compare crime recorded across countries? We show that crime counting rules vary widely across countries and this strongly affects cross-country comparisons
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David Buil-Gil @davidbuil.bsky.social · 25/11/2025
Working on AI trust, security, or related areas? @manchester.ac.uk has advertised three Fellowships (up to 3 years) for postdoctoral researchers who are within four years of completing their PhD www.jobs.manchester.ac.uk/Job/JobDetai...
jobs.manchester.ac.uk
AI Trust and Security Fellow:Oxford Road
The Faculty of Humanities has recently received a new £4.73m University investment in AI Trust and Security to drive the Faculty’s vision to be a research leader this field. The investment will help us to build an interdisciplinary research team working in the broad field of AI Trust and Security to build on our existing strengths in Digital Trust, Security and Society. At UoM, we see AI security as part of a set of broader issues of trust and trustworthiness, distrust and trust exploitation, and trust-building and resilience, and promote an interdisciplinary approach to these issues.
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Daniel de Kadt @dandekadt.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
I think the general lessons are: 1. Be clear about your goal (_estimand_) 2. Be clear about your analytical method (_estimator_) 3. Be clear about the assumptions that connect method to goal (_design_)
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Thiago R. Oliveira @oliveiratr.bsky.social · 10/11/2025
Very cool and timely (!) JDLCC special issue
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Tim Newburn @timnewburn.bsky.social · 03/11/2025
The Mannheim Centre at the LSE is holding a PhD symposium in May '26. The details are here lse.ac.uk/social-polic... and I would encourage all interested PhD students to apply. Should be a great, great event
lse.ac.uk
Mannheim Centre for Criminology | PhD Symposium 2026
The LSE’s Mannheim Centre for Criminology is pleased to announce the inaugural PhD Symposium taking place 18-19 May 2026
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Reducing Crime @reducingcrime.com · 05/11/2025
Trust and legitimacy are a resource for police. Out now: Episode #88 with the excellent @benbradford.bsky.social Apple: apple.co/4opeJDD Spotify: bit.ly/3WBBJ6f
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David Buil-Gil @davidbuil.bsky.social · 27/10/2025
External speaker seminar series at @criminologyuom.bsky.social 🤓
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David Buil-Gil @davidbuil.bsky.social · 25/10/2025
Are we winning the pumpkin carving competition? 🎃 @foxnic.bsky.social @oliveiratr.bsky.social
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British Society of Criminology @britishcriminology.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
Hello - it's taken a while but we are finally here! The BSC is on Bluesky. We look forward to sharing all the exciting things happening at the BSC: Events, Networks, Newsletters, our 2026 conference, membership opportunities and much more. Please follow us for all things Criminology and CJ!
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Thiago R. Oliveira @oliveiratr.bsky.social · 03/10/2025
Today we kicked off the Reading Sessions in Quantitative Criminology @criminologyuom.bsky.social discussing @dandekadt.bsky.social's excellent Good Description. Amazing session, this is such a great group! We meet fortnightly to discuss working papers and published papers on quantitative methods.
uom-resquant.github.io
Semester 1 Programme - 2024/25
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European Network for Open Criminology @opencriminology.bsky.social · 02/10/2025
Hello! ENOC is on BlueSky now. We are a working group of the @esc-eurocrim.bsky.social dedicated to the promotion, training, application and rewarding of open research in criminology. Check out our website for more: esc-enoc.github.io
esc-enoc.github.io
European Network for Open Criminology
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Marti Rovira @mrovira.bsky.social · 02/10/2025
🔍 New Research Alert 🔍 Do protection orders really reduce reoffending in intimate partner violence cases? I just co-authored a new open-access study that tackles this question in the Journal of Developmental and Life-Course Criminology. link.springer.com/article/10.1...
link.springer.com
'As Time Goes By': The Effectiveness of Protection Orders in Reducing Intimate Partner Violence Recidivism - Journal of Developmental and Life-Course Criminology
This study investigates the effectiveness of protection orders in reducing intimate partner violence (IPV) recidivism. Protection orders are legal measures imposing restrictions on aggressors to prevent them from approaching or contacting their victims. These legal measures have seen rapid international expansion in recent years. However, understanding the extent to which they work remains an ongoing challenge. To contribute to this debate, we employ Cox standard proportional hazards models and Prentice–Williams–Peterson gap-time models for recurrent events using a new dataset, which includes comprehensive registry data from an entire cohort of more than 6000 aggressors sentenced for at least one IPV crime over a five-year period, followed for at least four years. Our findings unveil an initial, average adverse effect of protection orders on recidivism. This effect becomes non-significant after excluding breaches of the orders and after controlling for judges’ tendency to impose these measures on high-risk offenders. Moreover, we observe that the effects of protection orders vary over time: While there is an adverse immediate impact of holding an order, a positive temporal cumulative effect counteracts it after a few months.
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 23/09/2025
Currently attending a conference & our field is quite a bit into fancy modeling, so it’s time to repost this blog post. Don’t try to squeeze your research question into whatever model is fashionable right now; try to build the right model for your research question. www.the100.ci/2024/08/27/l...
the100.ci
Let’s do statistics the other way around
Summer in Berlin – the perfect time and place to explore the city, take a walk in the Görli, go skinny dipping in the Spree, attend an overcrowded, overheated conference symposium on cross-lagged pane...
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Per Engzell @pengzell.bsky.social · 22/09/2025
1/ So you’re thinking about applying for an academic job in the UK but don’t know how? This thread will walk you through the essentials.
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Vulnerability & Policing Futures Research Centre @vp-centre.bsky.social · 19/09/2025
🚨 Job opportunity 🚨 We're looking for an ambitious, impact-focused Research Fellow to join @vp-centre.bsky.social. The role is full-time and fixed-term until 30 April 2027. Salary: £41,064-£48,822 Based at: @universityofleeds.bsky.social Deadline: 13 October 2025 jobs.leeds.ac.uk/vacancy.aspx...
jobs.leeds.ac.uk
Job Opportunity at University of Leeds: Research Fellow, Vulnerability & Policing Futures Research Centre
Are you an ambitious, impact-focussed researcher looking for your next challenge? Do you have a research interest in policing and vulnerable groups, the interactions between them and other service pro...
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Asier Moneva @asiermoneva.com · 18/09/2025
🚨 It's been a long time in the making, but I'm happy it's finally out! Standing on the shoulders of giants, in this preprint we propose an avenue for theoretical development in the field of environmental (cyber)criminology with practical applications for crime analysis. bsky.app/profile/soca...
The title page of the preprint.

Title: The Topology of Cyberspace and Cybercrime Journeys: A Framework for Analyzing Online Offender Mobility

Authors: Asier Moneva, Stijn Ruiter, and Wim Bernasco

Abstract: This paper introduces a novel framework for analyzing online offender mobility. Drawing on multidisciplinary insights, we extend two established criminological models for studying offline offending—the geometry of crime and crime journeys—by adapting their core concepts to cyberspace and developing a topology in which the cyber place is defined and becomes the unit of analysis. Just as offenders travel before, during, and after committing crime offline, we argue they also undertake trips before, during, and after committing cybercrime, and that like offline journeys these cybercrime journeys comprise identifiable and measurable components. We further distinguish between human journeys (what offenders perceive) and data journeys (what happens to the information they transmit). We explicitly demonstrate how concepts from the geometry of crime and crime journeys translate from offline to online crime and mobility. This approach enables the systematic formulation of research questions and the measurement of behavioral patterns, facilitating the generation and accumulation of knowledge on cybercrime offending. The paper illustrates the framework’s theoretical relevance within environmental criminology and its practical application for cybercrime analysis through concrete examples.Schematic representation of a cybercrime journey. Hindu-Arabic numerals represent the sequence of cyber places visited by the user, while Roman numerals indicate the sequence of infrastructure nodes traversed by the data.
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LSE Methodology @lsemethodology.bsky.social · 11/09/2025
We're hiring an Assistant Professor in Computational Social Science ❗ 📚 jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/... Apply before 26 October and join an internationally outstanding group of social science methodologists 🌎
we're hiring assistant professor in computational social science, applications close 26/10/2025
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UCL Centre for Longitudinal Studies @clscohorts.bsky.social · 09/09/2025
We're excited to announce CLS will lead the first new nationally representative UK-wide birth cohort study in 25 years. Generation New Era will follow the lives of more than 30,000 babies born in 2026, during their early years, and potentially beyond. Read more: bit.ly/4gfttBP
Photo of three babies lying on the carpetGraphic describing some of the key features of the study: 30,000 babies will take part, it is the first new UK-wide birth cohort study in 25 years, babies will be age 9-11 months at the first survey, and 3-4 years at the second survey. Graphic showing sample sizes in the four UK countries: 16,300 babies in England, 5,000 babies in Scotland, 4,500 babies in Wales, and 4,200 babies in Northern Ireland. Graphic describing some of the elements of the study. This includes boosts for ethnic minority and low income families, interviews with fathers as well as mothers, consent to linkage to administrative data.
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Thiago R. Oliveira @oliveiratr.bsky.social · 09/09/2025
The biggest of all academic achievements: having a ten-year-old photo of yourself shared online. 😅 Alas I don't look like my pre-PhD self below, but thanks so much for the shout @lsemethodology.bsky.social!
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Thiago R. Oliveira @oliveiratr.bsky.social · 07/09/2025
Today I learned that my initials are cool in Catalan ⚡️ Amazed to find out that I won the 2025 ESC Policing WG early career researcher prize for my JOEX paper! Thanks so much @davidbuil.bsky.social and @jacksojp.bsky.social for the nomination, and the ESC policing WG for the award 🙌
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David Buil-Gil @davidbuil.bsky.social · 06/09/2025
I don’t know why I was imagining all you would start guessing below; you guys suck😂 The one and only @oliveiratr.bsky.social got the Award. Give him some love ❤️
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Per Engzell @pengzell.bsky.social · 01/09/2025
WE ARE HIRING! 2 Lecturers in Quantitative Social Science. Want a friendly interdisciplinary department in one of the world's most vibrant cities? This just might be for you. Apply by: 10 Oct www.ucl.ac.uk/work-at-ucl/...
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Francesco Rampazzo @francescorampazzo.com · 01/09/2025
Is it Mánchester or Manchéster? Either way, I need to learn. From today I’m a Lecturer in Social Statistics and Demography at the University of Manchester @manchester.ac.uk - still Italian, still mispronouncing, but very excited for this new chapter!
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Marti Rovira @mrovira.bsky.social · 28/08/2025
✨ Want to use quant methods to study crime, desistance and intimate partner violence? A *funded PhD* at ‪@demosocupf.bsky.social‬ is opening soon! DM if you are interested 📬
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Robert Apel @bobapel.bsky.social · 06/08/2025
1/ Do body-worn cameras (BWCs) improve public attitudes toward the police? Or is how officers treat people what really matters? My new Justice Quarterly article with Mustafa Demir from John Jay tackles these questions with a vignette experiment. 🧵
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Thiago R. Oliveira @oliveiratr.bsky.social · 31/07/2025
New paper out today in JDLCC with @jacksojp.bsky.social. We use longitudinal data from Brazil to study implications of repeated exposures to police violence for adolescent legal socialisation and criminal offending @criminologyuom.bsky.social @lsemethodology.bsky.social doi.org/10.1007/s408...
doi.org
Learning About the Binding Nature of the Law: Police Violence, Criminal Offending and Adolescent Legal Socialization - Journal of Developmental and Life-Course Criminology
Legal socialization—the process through which individuals develop an understanding of the law and its purpose—unfolds throughout the life course, but childhood and adolescence are particularly formati...
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Thiago R. Oliveira @oliveiratr.bsky.social · 31/07/2025
New paper out today in JDLCC with @jacksojp.bsky.social. We use longitudinal data from Brazil to study implications of repeated exposures to police violence for adolescent legal socialisation and criminal offending @criminologyuom.bsky.social @lsemethodology.bsky.social doi.org/10.1007/s408...
doi.org
Learning About the Binding Nature of the Law: Police Violence, Criminal Offending and Adolescent Legal Socialization - Journal of Developmental and Life-Course Criminology
Legal socialization—the process through which individuals develop an understanding of the law and its purpose—unfolds throughout the life course, but childhood and adolescence are particularly formati...
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Adam Crawford @adamcrawford.bsky.social · 25/07/2025
Delighted to share first 2 articles from @vp-centre.bsky.social Minimum Policing Standard research @benbradford.bsky.social @drcaweirich.bsky.social & Dr Rowlands Open access: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.... www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.... More: vulnerabilitypolicing.org.uk/minimum-poli...
tandfonline.com
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Vulnerability & Policing Futures Research Centre @vp-centre.bsky.social · 24/07/2025
We’ve funded a project by Dr Thiago R. Oliveira from @criminologyuom.bsky.social on “Stop and search and the reproduction of social inequality” as part of our Early Career Researcher Development Fund. Read more 👇 vulnerabilitypolicing.org.uk/stop-and-sea...
vulnerabilitypolicing.org.uk
Stop and search and the reproduction of social inequality - Vulnerability & Policing Futures Research Centre
This project investigates unintended consequences of stop and search practices and whether they contribute to reproducing social inequality.
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