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CICERO Center for International Climate Research

@cicero.oslo.no
6.7K followers 1.3K following 216 posts

CICERO Center for International Climate Research is Norway’s foremost institute for interdisciplinary climate research.

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Reposted by CICERO Center for International Climate Research
Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Solar panels are making it to Luke Skywalker's home planet...
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Reposted by CICERO Center for International Climate Research
Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Hydrogen cars are the future. And if you believe that, I know a guy in Norway with 82 of them he's desperate to unload.
Graph showing: Total number of hydrogen-powered cars in the Norwegian fleet.
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Reposted by CICERO Center for International Climate Research
Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
If the US bans exports of diesel, prices will probably go UP in some parts of the US. Why? Because they import diesel and face international prices, which would go up with an export ban.
paulkrugman.substack.com
Donald the Deadbeat Does Diesel
Trump gets ready to stiff more contractors
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Reposted by CICERO Center for International Climate Research
Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
"Current [El Nino] forecasts suggest that the 2026 event could push global mean surface temperatures in 2027 to almost 1.8°C above pre-industrial levels" 😱 Good rundown of El Nino impacts via @zekehausfather.com www.nature.com/articles/d41...
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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
"More than 13 million people across seven provinces have been exposed to toxic smoke.... Between Aug. 18 and Sept. 21, health officials recorded nearly 175,000 cases. About a quarter of these were children under 5 years old." 🎁🔗
nytimes.com
Millions in Indonesia Breathe In Toxic Haze From Months of Wildfires (Gift Article)
For months, millions of people have been living under a stifling blanket of toxic haze, fueled by a punishing drought brought on by the El Niño weather pattern.
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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Just for the record, @glenpeters.bsky.social called this the day before @carbonbrief.org!
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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
"The capacity of operating and planned sodium-ion gigafactories in China has risen to more than 400 gigawatt hours, compared with just 11 in the rest of the world" 🎁🔗
giftarticle.ft.com
Western companies lag China in sodium battery race
Cells using abundantly available materials could help break the grip on metals needed for EVs and energy storage
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Elin Lerum Boasson @elinlb.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
I am in Bangkok for the @ipcc.bsky.social 2nd Lead Author Meeting for the 7th Assessment Report, Working Group III Mitigation of Climate Change. The ongoing flooding of Bangkok is a stark reminder of the consequences of extreme weather events.
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Reposted by CICERO Center for International Climate Research
Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
The US EIA is currently forecasting US fossil-fuel emissions to drop by 1.7% in 2026. robbieandrew.github.io/USA/
Graph showing: Changing EIA forecasts for US CO2 emissions in 2026 (Source: https://robbieandrew.github.io/USA/)
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
When I think of the Strait of Hormuz & the discussions on whether it leads to a change in emissions trajectory as people get off oil-based products, I think of this graph... It took 4-5 years for aviation to fully rebound after COVID! Figure from here: robbieandrew.github.io/internationa...
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Is it now that we start to see the real consequences of the combined conflicts in the Middle East and Russia? It seems that capacity outside of the Middle East and Russia is being reached, with prices rising accordingly. But for how long and how far?
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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Turkey's passenger car fleet is split relatively evenly between diesel, petrol, and LPG vehicles. Battery-electrics and hybrids are starting to bite in.
Graph showing: Monthly fleet composition of passenger cars: Türkiye
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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Not to quibble, but why are they calling them greenhouse gas emissions if they do nothing to the climate? www.epa.gov/newsreleases...
Screenshot highlighting text: "Models continue to show that GHG emissions from power plants have no material impact on global climate change."
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
What might global fossil CO2 emissions do in 2026? Based on IEA estimates, fossil CO2 emissions could decline 0.5% in 2026. A big 2.4% drop in oil & small 0.5% drop in gas, is partially offset by a 1.2% increase in coal. All very uncertain! www.energiogklima.no/nyhet/hormuz...
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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
"If the move survives expected legal challenges, it could also prevent future administrations from regulating greenhouse gas emissions from power plants." "Legal experts have called the plan vulnerable."
nytimes.com
E.P.A. Will Erase Limits on Climate Pollution From Power Plants (Gift Article)
Generation of electricity is the second largest source of carbon dioxide and other planet-warming gases in the United States.
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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
"Chinese cars typically contain around 1,000-2,000 different parts, whereas European competitors are still wrangling 3,000-10,000" [paywalled article]
economist.com
Chinese carmakers are bringing their factories to the world
Incumbents will have to accelerate to compete
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Reposted by CICERO Center for International Climate Research
Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
India's power generation this year is sitting well ahead of last year's. The general trend is ever up, but 2025 was an exception with its high rainfall. This year the El Niño has reduced rainfall, and temperatures are higher, as well as agricultural irrigation pumping. robbieandrew.github.io/india/
Graph showing: India's total daily power generation (Source: https://robbieandrew.github.io/india/)
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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
In India's National Capital Region, new light-duty goods vehicles will need to be electric, phased by district, starting as soon as 1 January 2027. This is part of work to address chronic air pollution problems in the region.
india.com
Delhi-NCR new pollution rules: What CAQM curbs mean for CNG freight vehicles
The CAQM has announced new measures to improve air quality in Delhi-NCR. Under the guidelines, new registrations of light goods vehicles in high vehicle density districts will be limited to electric v...
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CICERO Center for International Climate Research @cicero.oslo.no · 11/09/2026
Skal den siste oljen være norsk? Scenarioer er ikke ment for å spå framtiden, men for å endre den, sier CICERO-forsker @idasogn.bsky.social. Scenarioer som viser kraftig fall i norsk olje- og gassproduksjon brukes som argument for å øke leteaktiviteten på norsk sokkel. cicero.oslo.no/no/artikler/...
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Reposted by CICERO Center for International Climate Research
Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Who would have thought that a report by a bunch of scientists is so concerning to some of the worlds most powerful countries. (...or is this a proxy battle about other issues)
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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
In case anyone was wondering:
Graph showing: Monthly sales of new passenger cars: China (Source: https://robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/?lang=en&freq=monthly&type=relative&sort=bev-share&country=South+Korea%2CChina)
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Half way through the year, Indian CO2 emissions have grown 2.7% (Jan-Jun). Get more figures and information on India here robbieandrew.github.io/india/
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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
The European Commission has published the first update of its global GHG emissions dataset, "EDGAR", with estimates through 2025.
edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu
EDGAR - The Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
Also see Carbon Brief www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-w... @konstantinweber.bsky.social @brunncy.bsky.social @retoknutti.bsky.social
carbonbrief.org
Guest post: Why tough methane cuts are crucial for keeping warming ‘well-below’ 2C - Carbon Brief
The study highlights that, to limit peak warming to well-below 2C, net-zero CO2 targets must be complemented by stringent methane emissions cuts.
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
To minimise peak warming levels, net CO2 emissions need to reach net zero as soon as possible AND methane emissions need to decline rapidly. It is not a trade-off between CO2 & CH4, both need to be reduced as much as feasible, as fast as possible! www.nature.com/articles/s43...
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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
Steel sector, cement sector, property sector, and now the solar sector. Far too much production capacity driven by soft budget constraints and leading to serious problems, and the central government eventually steps in and forces companies out and factories shut down. Rinse and repeat.
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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
"We cannot treat infrastructural failures as unavoidable acts of climate change. In Nepal, extreme weather and climate catastrophes are the new operational reality, and our designs must withstand them." Excellent piece in the Kathmandu Post (h/t @rishpardikar.bsky.social).
kathmandupost.com
Opinion | Who holds Nepal’s energy switch now?
Nepal ended load-shedding through better governance. Then the river came down.
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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
Interesting details on ramping of coal-fired power plants in India. Coal plants are required to ramp their generation up and down in response to mainly solar generation, and this has been causing physical stress on the plants leading to higher maintenance costs.
cea.nic.in
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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
Vietnam's own Vinfast is the main driving force behind a very strong shift to battery-electric cars in the country, which reached 51% of sales in the first seven months of this year. robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/?co...
Graph showing: Monthly sales of new passenger cars: Vietnam (Source: https://robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/?lang=en&freq=monthly&type=relative&sort=bev-share&country=Vietnam)
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
I don't really disagree with anything @globalecoguy.bsky.social wrote, but I do want to highlight that it is way too simple to more or less say "CDR hard, CH4 easy". Let's have a look. This figure shows what CH4 looks like in 1.5C scenarios (with overshoot). Meanwhile, methane is growing... 1/
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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Charging of EVs topped 16 TWh in July. Data are incomplete, with the National Energy Administration only starting to report it recently and showing that comprehensive numbers are much higher than those collected from members of the EVCIPA.
Graph showing: Total EV charging in China (Source: https://robbieandrew.github.io/china/)
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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Retail sales of cars without plugs ("ICE") continue to drag in China, down almost 41% since March, while new-energy (BEV+PHEV) cars are down only 4.9%. Two-thirds of NEVs are BEVs.
Graph showing: Cumulative passenger car sales in China (Source: https://robbieandrew.github.io/china/)
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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Wow. Hello Taiwanese chips.
Graph showing: US imports of goods
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
"Overshoot" scenarios have existed for 20+ years. This paper in 2009 was one of the first to systematically explore the issue. You will see the emission scenarios look very similar to the emission scenarios we see today. What have we learnt in 20 years? www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... 1/
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
One may say we "need" this level of Carbon Dioxide Removal to meet certain climate targets, but whether it is feasible / realistic is entirely another question. www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-th... 1/
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
If you want 1.5C, 1.8C, 2C, overshoot, no-overshoot, etc, then they all require the same thing: rapid short-term emission reductions reaching net zero CO2 emissions as soon as possible. This has been clear from the IPCC Special Report on 1.5C, which depicts "overshoot" on its cover! 1/
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Elin Lerum Boasson @elinlb.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
Could the Icelandic no-vote revitalize discussion about the EEA-agreement? Will it make the EU interested in including more countries in the EEA, or make it less flexible towards EEA? None of this is what Iceland and Norway want, and I do not think it is very likely. Still interesting to consider!
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
I have lots of thoughts and emotions, but I really wonder what the "climate is not that important" crowd think when they watch what is unfolding in Nepal. They will surely deny any climate link. If they admit any climate link, would that mean they need to change their world view too?
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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Interesting news article. But news of EV sales in Mexico "skyrocketing" might be overly generous.
Graph showing: Monthly sales of new passenger cars: Mexico (Source: https://robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/?lang=en&freq=monthly&type=line&sort=bev-share&country=Mexico)
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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
🎁🔗 Source for several of the charts: robbieandrew.github.io/carsales
nytimes.com
E.V. Sales Are Rising After the Gulf Oil Shock. Here’s Where. (Gift Article)
As global fuel prices surge, electric vehicle adoption is breaking records around the world. These charts tell the story.
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Direct Air Capture (DAC) is often argued as a small footprint form of Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) & this is seen as an advantage. For Nuremberg (Germany) to take up its current per capita emissions using DAC, would require city walls 68m high, nearly as high as the church towers (75m). 1/
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Agree very much with this commentary. Ok for National Forest Inventories to be the foundation of GHG inventories, but a plurality of methods makes for more robust estimates. The article misses a few things though, which I think are worth emphasizing. iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1... 1/
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CICERO Center for International Climate Research @cicero.oslo.no · 21/08/2026
In this edition of the India Energy and Climate Pulse, we focus on the India’s new carbon credit trading scheme and its role to reduce emissions from industrial sector. www.ecpulse.in/snapshots/au...
ecpulse.in
India’s Carbon Market: A New Lever for Industrial Decarbonization — India Energy and Climate Pulse
In this edition of the India Energy and Climate Pulse, we focus on the India’s new carbon credit trading scheme and its role to reduce emissions from industrial sector. 
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
The Norwegian oil & gas adventure is coming to an end. Even with aggressive exploration in new areas, big finds, & technology development, the most ambitious scenario from the Offshore Directorate has declining production. This is before considering climate! www.sodir.no/en/whats-new... 1/
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
"Can we sequester carbon fast enough? Growing disconnect between models and reality" The achieved sequestration rate is nearly always lower than the announced rate. At what stage should models include this and adjust costs accordingly? iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
Figure showing the actual rate measured in reality is much lower than what the project announced as the rate at project start.
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
For a presentation I needed scenarios on oil & gas demand in Europe under its climate legislation. I went to the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change report. How do models get such high LULUCF removals? Who believes this? climate-advisory-board.europa.eu/reports-and-... 1/
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Elin Lerum Boasson @elinlb.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Nysgjerrig på hvordan vi jobber i FNs klimapanel? Er du også interessert i forskning og klimapolitikk mer generelt? Da kan du høre meg prate med Erik M. @unioslo-svfak.bsky.social podcasts.apple.com/no/podcast/e...
podcasts.apple.com
#39. Elin Lerum Boasson om FNs klimapanel
Podkastepisode · Erik M · 18. august · 1 t 6 min
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CleanCloud Project @cleancloud-he.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
How does aerosol-cloud physics buffer clouds against aerosol perturbations? Join us for a seminar by Dr. Po-Lun Ma, who will explore this question using Earth System Model. 📆 Wednesday 26 August at 1pm (CET) on Zoom! epfl.zoom.us/j/6269954659...
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Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Sales of new-energy (BEV+PHEV) cars in China are down 12% this year, but sales of gasoline cars are down 28%, and 41% since March. Industry comment: "collapse in fuel vehicle sales, strong dominance of new energy", "demand for fuel passenger cars shrank sharply", "collapse of fuel vehicle sales".
Graph showing: Cumulative passenger car sales in China (Source: https://robbieandrew.github.io/china/)
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