Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 05/05/2026I'm deeply honored and grateful to join the 2026 class of #CarnegieFellows! My project will focus on polarization & representation in local governments. I hope this work will also yield insights about how to reduce polarization in state governments & Congress. www.carnegie.org/awards/honor...carnegie.orgChristopher S. Warshaw | Carnegie Corporation of New York 5201
Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 11/03/2026It thinks the 12 point shift from 2024 implied by special election results would lead to over 250 Democratic seats. 010
Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 11/03/2026PlanScore just added scenarios to play with the implications of various swings in vote share for US House elections. For instance, it thinks current generic ballot (7 point shift from 2024 = D+5 generic ballot) implies about 230 seats for Democrats. planscore.org#!predict7D-u...planscore.orgPlanScorePlanScore is a first-of-its-kind gerrymandering scoring service for new district plans, allowing users to upload maps and instantly receive projected data about their partisan consequences. You can al... 275
Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 02/03/2026Amazing work from @mike.teczno.com, who designed these upgrades to PlanScore. 010
Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 02/03/2026We made some big upgrades to the PlanScore website. You can now design your own scenario to examine potential outcomes in state legislative and congressional districting plans. On any new plan, you can change incumbency, vote margins, and the base election that PlanScore uses for the projection. 1103
Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 09/01/2026FWIW, I haven't seen an uptick in requests yet. Also, my guess is that, in the medium term, AI will just widen inequalities in publishing, leading to much more productivity by some. But I suspect people writing papers using reg in Stata and MS Word are not going to quickly master Claude Code... 440
Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 07/01/2026Working on updates to my elections syllabus. What's the best 538/Upshot/Strength in Numbers style analysis of the impact of inflation/affordability on the 2022, 2024, and/or 2025 elections? Academic literature on this is pretty thin. 130
Reposted by Chris WarshawJake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 06/01/2026Correct link here dynamicdemocracy.usdynamicdemocracy.us 03720
Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 06/01/2026No, we still haven’t updated the mass ideology estimates. Someday… 010
Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 06/01/2026A huge thank you to @mccourtschool.bsky.social Data Science student Graham Chickering. www.linkedin.com/in/graham-ch.... Graham is the principal architect of the website. Please let us know if you have suggestions or questions, or notice bugs. We're planning on making updates in the months ahead.linkedin.com 010
Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 06/01/2026The data on the website updates and extends the data from @devincaughey.bsky.social and my @uchicagopress.bsky.social book "Dynamic Democracy Public Opinion, Elections, and Policymaking in the American States." press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/bo... www.amazon.com/Dynamic-Demo...press.uchicago.eduDynamic DemocracyA new perspective on policy responsiveness in American government. Scholars of American politics have long been skeptical of ordinary citizens’ capacity to influence, let alone control, their gover... 120
Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 06/01/2026You can also download all the raw data there for your own analyses. Most of the data should eventually also be available via the Correlates of State Policy Project. 110
Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 06/01/2026The website includes lots of fun data visualization tools. You can share links to graphs and download the graphics. For instance, here's a map with our estimates public support for same-sex marriage in 2024. bit.ly/45Az55l (Note - We're working on improving descriptions of public opinion data). 120
Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 06/01/2026We're excited to release version 1.0 of the Dynamic Democracy website. It includes updated data on state policy, public opinion, mass ideology, and representation. The website enables you to see how these measures are changing overtime across states and within states. www.dynamicdemocracy.us 15723
Reposted by Chris WarshawConrad Hackett @conradhackett.bsky.social · 06/01/2026Please share - @pewresearch.org wants to hire a data archivist who will be an advocate for data users, helping to ensure that our datasets are easy to discover and reuse by researchers, journalists, and the public. pewtrusts.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com/CenterExtern... 4310307
Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 05/01/2026Gift link to WPost article in original post: wapo.st/49mjDv0wapo.stDemocrats look primed to win the House, but a wave might be harderGerrymandering and longer-term trends in polarization have left fewer competitive House seats in next year’s midterm elections. 020
Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 05/01/2026Sometime soon, we're hoping to add functionality to @planscore.org for users to play with different national scenarios to examine the implications for the national map and control of Congress. 110
Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 05/01/2026My one quibble with the article is that the national House map is almost certainly more fair than in 2018. So I think a similarly sized Democratic midterm wave as in 2018 (e.g, a D +7.5 national vote share) would translate to at least as many seats as in 2018. 110
Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 05/01/2026I was grateful to be quoted in this great early look at the midterms in today's Washington Post. As I told the reporter, I think the redistricting wars are basically a draw in the short-term, but the long-term loser is American democracy. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202... 1164
Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 23/12/2025Does anyone have recommendations for good texts for undergrads or masters students that compare/contrast the basic institutional setup of state and local governments? (e.g., council/manager systems in local governments) 351
Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 08/12/2025PoliSci Friends- I'm updating some MRP-based public opinion estimates. Anyone willing to share micro data from recent nationally representative surveys you've run (e.g., CES modules) that ask one or more batteries of binary questions about the American public's issue/policy preferences? 157
Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 03/12/2025Not enough seats, I meant to say. But big caveat is that 5-10 seats would have HUGE effect on 2028 elections in closer national vote. 010
Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 03/12/2025I generally agree. My personal prob that Dems take the House is 90%. Re: VRA- maybe 50-60% it gets struck down, conditional on 1, 50% it happens early enough to affect 2026, and conditional on 1 and 2, 75% yields 5+ rep seats. But I still don’t think that’s enough seats to affect midterms much. 100
Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 03/12/2025Our book and Steve Roger’s book both show state legislatures are fairly uncompetitive. However important to note that both mayors and governors election remain pretty competitive, with lots of split ticket voting. 110
Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 03/12/2025Or maybe prob that republicans benefit from VRA getting struck down and/or get lucky with current round of gerrymanders (eg new CA map is struck down, new TX map gets upheld by SCOTUS, FL and IN pass aggressive gerrymanders and VA stays put). 100
Reposted by Chris WarshawAaron Strauss @aaronstrauss.bsky.social · 03/12/2025Even accounting for the new congressional maps, a swing like Aftyn Behn's (Trump+22 to D-8.6) would net Dems 259 seats in the midterms. Even if the swing is *half* of tonight's, Dems win the House with 229 seats Data: docs.google.com/spreadsheets... 116945
Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 28/11/2025youtu.be/IJ-a2KeyCAY?...youtu.beWatch Stephen Colbert at the 2006 White House Corresponde...YouTube video by CNN 010
Reposted by Chris WarshawPlanScore @planscore.org · 20/11/2025Our new U.S. House map is the first to track nationwide partisan skew in the evolving 2025/2026 mid-decade redistricting planscore.org#!2026-ushouse 052
Reposted by Chris WarshawJustin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 11/11/2025I wonder if the United States can learn anything from the last time a major industrialized country decided to isolate itself from the rest of the world? Almost a decade after the Brexit vote, GDP in the UK is around 6-8% lower relative to peer countries. (Source: www.nber.org/papers/w34459) 11230851128
Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 03/11/2025All of the above seems best for out of power parties trying to win control. 010
Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 02/11/2025From an academic perspective, maybe not. But it would shift control of Congress, right? 120
Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 02/11/2025Okay but that 1.5 pp is pretty consequential in elections. 110
Reposted by Chris WarshawDrew Engelhardt @amengel.bsky.social · 01/11/2025Love to have this all in one spot. The ANES truly is a gift. 1154
Reposted by Chris WarshawPlanScore @planscore.org · 30/10/2025We’re adding this and other maps from this year’s fast-moving midcycle redistricting to our library of current plans: - Ohio planscore.org/library/ohio/ - North Carolina planscore.org/library/nort... - California planscore.org/library/cali... - Texas planscore.org/library/texas/ 032
Reposted by Chris WarshawJonathan Ladd @jonathanmladd.com · 29/10/2025It is finally finished and released! I was proud to be a member of the Task Force on 2024 Pre-Election Polling, and to play just a small role in producing this report. Here is the report: aapor.org/wp-content/u... And here is the Executive Summary: aapor.org/wp-content/u...aapor.org 57127
Reposted by Chris WarshawDan Hopkins @dhopkins1776.bsky.social · 20/10/2025My Philadelphia Inquirer op-ed w @chriswarshaw.bsky.social, "Gerrymandering is Bad. Expanding it is even worse," is out. 1 limit on gerrymandering -> inability to see the future. If the parties redraw district boundaries every cycle, anti-democratic biases grow. www.inquirer.com/opinion/comm...inquirer.comGerrymandering is bad. Expanding it is even worse. | OpinionConstant redistricting of electoral maps is likely to make congressional elections even less competitive. 254
Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 15/10/2025This graphic is in terms of margin, so not quite that bleak. But still pretty bad… 131
Reposted by Chris WarshawMichael Li (李之樸) @mcpli.bsky.social · 13/10/2025Although the Callais case at SCOTUS involves a high-profile congressional redistricting dispute, important to remember that most Section 2 cases (2/3!) continue to involve local government bodies like city councils & school boards. - mostly challenges to at-large systems. 13111
Reposted by Chris WarshawTaniel @taniel.bsky.social · 12/10/2025need Sunday reading? explore what's on the ballot next month! I put together the 180+ key races you should know about, across 32 states. so explore, & find the ones that interest you the most, here: boltsmag.org/whats-on-the... and let me highlight three under-radar races, in 🧵 below. ⬇️ 619991
Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 07/10/2025In recent years, white turnout has spiked. But turnout among Black and other non-white Americans has stagnated. @devincaughey.bsky.social, Bernard Fraga, @rpgriffin.bsky.social & I have a summary in @goodauth.bsky.social of our work on turnout in U.S. elections. goodauthority.org/news/2024-br...goodauthority.org2024 brought high voter turnout – but a growing racial gapNew data shows that while white turnout has spiked, turnout among Black and other non-white Americans has stagnated. 3177
Reposted by Chris WarshawG Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 06/10/2025I think this is one of the more important articles I've written in my career. Draws on lots of research and data. I hope it can be a reference for people and that it will make a positive impact. Goes out to all Strength In Numbers readers tomorrow morning: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/most-polls... 312820
Reposted by Chris WarshawTaniel @taniel.bsky.social · 04/10/2025for the weekend crowd: take a moment today to explore what's on the ballot next month! it's not all about NYC, VA, and NJ: i put together a guide of the 180+ key races you should know about, across 32 states. explore, & find the ones that interest you the most, here: boltsmag.org/whats-on-the... 11328150
Reposted by Chris WarshawMichael Hankinson @hankinson.bsky.social · 30/09/2025I'm excited to share that we're running a junior faculty search in American politics. Proud to see GWU continue to invest in political science. Link: www.gwu.jobs/postings/122...gwu.jobsAssistant Professor of Political ScienceThe Department of Political Science invites applications for a tenure-track position in American Politics at the rank of assistant professor beginning as early as Fall 2026. This position is pending f... 04016