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Chris Warshaw

@chriswarshaw.bsky.social
5.4K followers 676 following 227 posts

Professor at Georgetown’s McCourt School of Public Policy. Focus on representation, elections, & public opinion. Co-Author: Dynamic Democracy, PlanScore.org, & TrueViews.org.

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Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
Yes
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Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
I'm deeply honored and grateful to join the 2026 class of #CarnegieFellows! My project will focus on polarization & representation in local governments. I hope this work will also yield insights about how to reduce polarization in state governments & Congress. www.carnegie.org/awards/honor...
carnegie.org
Christopher S. Warshaw | Carnegie Corporation of New York
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Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
It thinks the 12 point shift from 2024 implied by special election results would lead to over 250 Democratic seats.
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Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
PlanScore just added scenarios to play with the implications of various swings in vote share for US House elections. For instance, it thinks current generic ballot (7 point shift from 2024 = D+5 generic ballot) implies about 230 seats for Democrats. planscore.org#!predict7D-u...
planscore.org
PlanScore
PlanScore is a first-of-its-kind gerrymandering scoring service for new district plans, allowing users to upload maps and instantly receive projected data about their partisan consequences. You can al...
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Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
Amazing work from @mike.teczno.com, who designed these upgrades to PlanScore.
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Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
We made some big upgrades to the PlanScore website. You can now design your own scenario to examine potential outcomes in state legislative and congressional districting plans. On any new plan, you can change incumbency, vote margins, and the base election that PlanScore uses for the projection.
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Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 09/01/2026
FWIW, I haven't seen an uptick in requests yet. Also, my guess is that, in the medium term, AI will just widen inequalities in publishing, leading to much more productivity by some. But I suspect people writing papers using reg in Stata and MS Word are not going to quickly master Claude Code...
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Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
Working on updates to my elections syllabus. What's the best 538/Upshot/Strength in Numbers style analysis of the impact of inflation/affordability on the 2022, 2024, and/or 2025 elections? Academic literature on this is pretty thin.
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Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 06/01/2026
Correct link here dynamicdemocracy.us
dynamicdemocracy.us
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Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 06/01/2026
No, we still haven’t updated the mass ideology estimates. Someday…
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Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 06/01/2026
🙏
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Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 06/01/2026
A huge thank you to @mccourtschool.bsky.social Data Science student Graham Chickering. www.linkedin.com/in/graham-ch.... Graham is the principal architect of the website. Please let us know if you have suggestions or questions, or notice bugs. We're planning on making updates in the months ahead.
linkedin.com
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Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 06/01/2026
The data on the website updates and extends the data from @devincaughey.bsky.social and my @uchicagopress.bsky.social book "Dynamic Democracy Public Opinion, Elections, and Policymaking in the American States." press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/bo... www.amazon.com/Dynamic-Demo...
press.uchicago.edu
Dynamic Democracy
A new perspective on policy responsiveness in American government.   Scholars of American politics have long been skeptical of ordinary citizens’ capacity to influence, let alone control, their gover...
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Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 06/01/2026
You can also download all the raw data there for your own analyses. Most of the data should eventually also be available via the Correlates of State Policy Project.
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Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 06/01/2026
The website includes lots of fun data visualization tools. You can share links to graphs and download the graphics. For instance, here's a map with our estimates public support for same-sex marriage in 2024. bit.ly/45Az55l (Note - We're working on improving descriptions of public opinion data).
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Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 06/01/2026
We're excited to release version 1.0 of the Dynamic Democracy website. It includes updated data on state policy, public opinion, mass ideology, and representation. The website enables you to see how these measures are changing overtime across states and within states. www.dynamicdemocracy.us
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Conrad Hackett @conradhackett.bsky.social · 06/01/2026
Please share - @pewresearch.org wants to hire a data archivist who will be an advocate for data users, helping to ensure that our datasets are easy to discover and reuse by researchers, journalists, and the public. pewtrusts.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com/CenterExtern...
Pew Research Center is seeking a Data Archivist to support our commitment to open science and data transparency. This newly created role will play a key part in enhancing the accessibility, usability, and reproducibility of our research data while continuing to protect the privacy and identity of our survey participants. 

As Data Archivist, you will lead efforts to create and implement best practices for preparing, documenting, and disseminating datasets. These best practices should maximize FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable) principles while minimizing disclosure risk. You will work across teams to ensure our data is well-organized and thoroughly documented. 

You will serve as an internal advocate for data users, helping to ensure that our datasets are not only accurate and comprehensive but also easy to discover and reuse by researchers, journalists, and the public.   

This is a full-time, Pew Research Center position. The position is funded by an external grant and limited to a two-year term.   Primary Responsibilities 

Develop optimization procedures to improve discoverability of our datasets on internal and external platforms 

Develop and maintain standards to improve accessibility of our microdata and tab plans by changing/adding formats and/or adding documentation 

Identify metadata documentation best practices and a process to implement those best practices at the Center 

Work with Legal to evaluate most appropriate license to publicly share the Center's survey data, including Creative Common options

Identify and correct processing inefficiencies in our data publication process 

Sit on the internal Disclosure Risk Taskforce 

Document analytical decisions and code to support transparency and replicability, including the development of a RACI chart for publishing code to recreate derived variables that are used in reports but are not included in the microdata 

Manage/create merged time series datasets for select Center datasets 

Identify a process for internally archiving data and projects that are no longer in active use 

Identify and implement a process to assign Digital Object Identifiers (DOI) to microdata 

Prepare and upload public-facing datasets and restricted-use datasets for external sharing. 

Train staff on FAIR principles and best practices in data archiving. Education/Training/Experience 

Bachelor’s degree required, preferably in library sciences, organizational management, or a related field.  

5-7 years of experience with data archiving, database management, or survey research. This may include graduate training at the MA/PhD level or equivalent experience in an applied setting. 

At least 3-5 years of experience applying FAIR and open science principles. 

Background in social science research or data curation. 

Experience in data management, archiving, or research support. 

Familiarity with FAIR principles, Creative Common licensing, data privacy principles, and exposure risk.

Proficiency in metadata standards and documentation tools. 

Experience managing research projects, including working collaboratively with a multidisciplinary team. 

Experience with statistical software (e.g., R, Python, Stata) and reproducible research workflows. 

 

 

Knowledge, Skill and Workplace Requirements 

Strong organizational and communication skills. 

Detail oriented with exacting standards to maintain accuracy and impartiality in all work products. 

Ability to work independently to carry out special projects from start to finish. 

Ability to balance numerous tasks simultaneously. 

Ability to work collaboratively and collegially with other team members, as well as with staff from other Pew Research Center teams. 

Ability to balance competing priorities and identify optimal solutions 

 

FLSA Status: Exempt  

Compensation: Starting salary is commensurate with experience within the range of $100,000 - $120,000. 

Hybrid Work Schedule: Pew Research Center staff are required to be present in the Center’s Washington, D.C., office three core days weekly (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday).  Staff may work virtually from remote locations on other days in a typical work week.
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Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
Gift link to WPost article in original post: wapo.st/49mjDv0
wapo.st
Democrats look primed to win the House, but a wave might be harder
Gerrymandering and longer-term trends in polarization have left fewer competitive House seats in next year’s midterm elections.
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Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
Sometime soon, we're hoping to add functionality to @planscore.org for users to play with different national scenarios to examine the implications for the national map and control of Congress.
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Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
My one quibble with the article is that the national House map is almost certainly more fair than in 2018. So I think a similarly sized Democratic midterm wave as in 2018 (e.g, a D +7.5 national vote share) would translate to at least as many seats as in 2018.
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Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
I was grateful to be quoted in this great early look at the midterms in today's Washington Post. As I told the reporter, I think the redistricting wars are basically a draw in the short-term, but the long-term loser is American democracy. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
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Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 23/12/2025
Does anyone have recommendations for good texts for undergrads or masters students that compare/contrast the basic institutional setup of state and local governments? (e.g., council/manager systems in local governments)
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Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 08/12/2025
PoliSci Friends- I'm updating some MRP-based public opinion estimates. Anyone willing to share micro data from recent nationally representative surveys you've run (e.g., CES modules) that ask one or more batteries of binary questions about the American public's issue/policy preferences?
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Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 03/12/2025
Not enough seats, I meant to say. But big caveat is that 5-10 seats would have HUGE effect on 2028 elections in closer national vote.
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Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 03/12/2025
I generally agree. My personal prob that Dems take the House is 90%. Re: VRA- maybe 50-60% it gets struck down, conditional on 1, 50% it happens early enough to affect 2026, and conditional on 1 and 2, 75% yields 5+ rep seats. But I still don’t think that’s enough seats to affect midterms much.
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Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 03/12/2025
Our book and Steve Roger’s book both show state legislatures are fairly uncompetitive. However important to note that both mayors and governors election remain pretty competitive, with lots of split ticket voting.
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Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 03/12/2025
Or maybe prob that republicans benefit from VRA getting struck down and/or get lucky with current round of gerrymanders (eg new CA map is struck down, new TX map gets upheld by SCOTUS, FL and IN pass aggressive gerrymanders and VA stays put).
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Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 03/12/2025
This seems right to me.
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Aaron Strauss @aaronstrauss.bsky.social · 03/12/2025
Even accounting for the new congressional maps, a swing like Aftyn Behn's (Trump+22 to D-8.6) would net Dems 259 seats in the midterms. Even if the swing is *half* of tonight's, Dems win the House with 229 seats Data: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
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Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 28/11/2025
youtu.be/IJ-a2KeyCAY?...
youtu.be
Watch Stephen Colbert at the 2006 White House Corresponde...
YouTube video by CNN
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PlanScore @planscore.org · 20/11/2025
Our new U.S. House map is the first to track nationwide partisan skew in the evolving 2025/2026 mid-decade redistricting planscore.org#!2026-ushouse
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
I wonder if the United States can learn anything from the last time a major industrialized country decided to isolate itself from the rest of the world? Almost a decade after the Brexit vote, GDP in the UK is around 6-8% lower relative to peer countries. (Source: www.nber.org/papers/w34459)
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Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 08/11/2025
Super cool!
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Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 03/11/2025
All of the above seems best for out of power parties trying to win control.
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Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 02/11/2025
From an academic perspective, maybe not. But it would shift control of Congress, right?
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Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 02/11/2025
Okay but that 1.5 pp is pretty consequential in elections.
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Drew Engelhardt @amengel.bsky.social · 01/11/2025
Love to have this all in one spot. The ANES truly is a gift.
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PlanScore @planscore.org · 30/10/2025
We’re adding this and other maps from this year’s fast-moving midcycle redistricting to our library of current plans: - Ohio planscore.org/library/ohio/ - North Carolina planscore.org/library/nort... - California planscore.org/library/cali... - Texas planscore.org/library/texas/
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Jonathan Ladd @jonathanmladd.com · 29/10/2025
It is finally finished and released! I was proud to be a member of the Task Force on 2024 Pre-Election Polling, and to play just a small role in producing this report. Here is the report: aapor.org/wp-content/u... And here is the Executive Summary: aapor.org/wp-content/u...
aapor.org
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Dan Hopkins @dhopkins1776.bsky.social · 20/10/2025
My Philadelphia Inquirer op-ed w @chriswarshaw.bsky.social, "Gerrymandering is Bad. Expanding it is even worse," is out. 1 limit on gerrymandering -> inability to see the future. If the parties redraw district boundaries every cycle, anti-democratic biases grow. www.inquirer.com/opinion/comm...
inquirer.com
Gerrymandering is bad. Expanding it is even worse. | Opinion
Constant redistricting of electoral maps is likely to make congressional elections even less competitive.
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Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 15/10/2025
This graphic is in terms of margin, so not quite that bleak. But still pretty bad…
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Michael Li (李之樸) @mcpli.bsky.social · 13/10/2025
Although the Callais case at SCOTUS involves a high-profile congressional redistricting dispute, important to remember that most Section 2 cases (2/3!) continue to involve local government bodies like city councils & school boards. - mostly challenges to at-large systems.
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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social · 12/10/2025
need Sunday reading? explore what's on the ballot next month! I put together the 180+ key races you should know about, across 32 states. so explore, & find the ones that interest you the most, here: boltsmag.org/whats-on-the... and let me highlight three under-radar races, in 🧵 below. ⬇️
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Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 09/10/2025
This looks awesome.
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Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 07/10/2025
In recent years, white turnout has spiked. But turnout among Black and other non-white Americans has stagnated. @devincaughey.bsky.social, Bernard Fraga, @rpgriffin.bsky.social & I have a summary in @goodauth.bsky.social of our work on turnout in U.S. elections. goodauthority.org/news/2024-br...
goodauthority.org
2024 brought high voter turnout – but a growing racial gap
New data shows that while white turnout has spiked, turnout among Black and other non-white Americans has stagnated.
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Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 07/10/2025
Wow! Amazing.
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 06/10/2025
I think this is one of the more important articles I've written in my career. Draws on lots of research and data. I hope it can be a reference for people and that it will make a positive impact. Goes out to all Strength In Numbers readers tomorrow morning: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/most-polls...
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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social · 04/10/2025
for the weekend crowd: take a moment today to explore what's on the ballot next month! it's not all about NYC, VA, and NJ: i put together a guide of the 180+ key races you should know about, across 32 states. explore, & find the ones that interest you the most, here: boltsmag.org/whats-on-the...
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Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 04/10/2025
Very cool!
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Michael Hankinson @hankinson.bsky.social · 30/09/2025
I'm excited to share that we're running a junior faculty search in American politics. Proud to see GWU continue to invest in political science. Link: www.gwu.jobs/postings/122...
gwu.jobs
Assistant Professor of Political Science
The Department of Political Science invites applications for a tenure-track position in American Politics at the rank of assistant professor beginning as early as Fall 2026. This position is pending f...
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