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Reposted by Christoffer H. Dausgaard

American Journal of Political Science (AJPS) @ajpseditor.bsky.social · 23/03/2026

You and whose economy? Group-based retrospection in economic voting by Christoffer Hentzer Dausgaard is now available in Early View. @chdausgaard.bsky.social ajps.org/2026/03/20/y...

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Reposted by Christoffer H. Dausgaard

European Journal of Political Research @ejprjournal.bsky.social · 02/03/2026

What about them? 💭 Rune Stubager, @chdausgaard.bsky.social, @lenamariahuber.bsky.social & Michael Lewis-Beck use survey data from Austria, Denmark & the U.S. to find out whether group sympathies matter as much as social identity when influencing #VoterBehaviour

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Reference groups and electoral behavior | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core

Reference groups and electoral behavior

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Reposted by Christoffer H. Dausgaard

Martin Gross @martingross.bsky.social · 05/01/2026

After 8️⃣ years as Social Media Editor of @wepsocial.bsky.social I am very happy to announce that @chdausgaard.bsky.social takes over from 1 January 2026 on. 🥳 It was a great pleasure to be part of @wepsocial.bsky.social journey & I thank the editors for the trust they have placed in me. 😊

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Christoffer H. Dausgaard @chdausgaard.bsky.social · 16/04/2025

Excited to be presenting my and Frederik's paper on elite rhetoric and group-party linkages in a few hours at the TaDa Spring Speaker Series! Tune in at the link below.

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Reposted by Christoffer H. Dausgaard

Clint Claessen @clint0475.bsky.social · 09/04/2025

Next week, the TaDa Speaker Series is thrilled to host @chdausgaard.bsky.social from the University of Copenhagen presenting new work with @fghjorth.bsky.social on Elite Rhetoric and the Running Tally of Party-Group Linkages. 📅 April 16, 2025 | 🕔 17:00 Berlin Time 🔗 Subscribe: tada.cool

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Reposted by Christoffer H. Dausgaard

Garrison Lovely @garrisonlovely.bsky.social · 08/01/2025

🚨 New piece in TIME: AI progress hasn't stalled — it's just become invisible to most people. 🚨 I used to think that AI slowed down a lot in 2024, but I now think I was wrong. Instead, there's a widening gap between AI's public face and its true capabilities. 🧵

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Christoffer H. Dausgaard @chdausgaard.bsky.social · 08/01/2025

In sum, our findings suggest that party elites have more agency in shaping group linkages than often thought - even in the short term. Full paper link: fghjorth.github.io/workingpaper...

fghjorth.github.io

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Christoffer H. Dausgaard @chdausgaard.bsky.social · 08/01/2025

This relationship is robust to various specifications and is driven by group appeals to especially religious, class and age groups. Further, we find that while purely ‘symbolic’ appeals matter, ‘substantive’ appeals that mention policy are more effective by an order of magnitude.

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Christoffer H. Dausgaard @chdausgaard.bsky.social · 08/01/2025

We find that voters appear highly attuned to how party elites talk about different social groups. Adding a single net positive appeal to a given group on a daily basis over the course of 3 months improves a perceived group-party linkage by ~6 points on average.

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Christoffer H. Dausgaard @chdausgaard.bsky.social · 08/01/2025

To test this, we develop a novel automated approach that uses language models to measure group appeals observationally. Using UK data, we connect citizens’ perceived group linkages in surveys to party elites’ group appeals in parliamentary speech spanning three decades.

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Christoffer H. Dausgaard @chdausgaard.bsky.social · 08/01/2025

It’s often assumed that politicians’ use of group appeals -- valenced references to social groups -- can shape party reputations. We test this assumption, arguing that voters keep ‘running tallies’ of elite rhetoric to continuously update views of whose interests parties represent.

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Christoffer H. Dausgaard @chdausgaard.bsky.social · 08/01/2025

In a new working paper, @fghjorth.bsky.social and I show that party elites have significant power to shape group linkages through their rhetoric, suggesting that such linkages are more dynamic and elite-driven than suggested by predominant structural accounts. 🧵

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Reposted by Christoffer H. Dausgaard

Danbischof @danbischof.bsky.social · 11/01/2024

It is super tough to cut down about 40% of 482 submissions for the EPSA behavior section. But I've finished the first evaluations. Some thoughts, if you are interested:

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Reposted by Christoffer H. Dausgaard

Daniel Lakens @lakens.bsky.social · 12/12/2023

Remember best practice in a power analysis is to plan not for the effect you expect, but for the smallest effect size of interest. The type 2 error is a conditional inference: If there is an effect I care about, I would have X probability to detect it. lakens.github.io/statistical_...

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Reposted by Christoffer H. Dausgaard

Will Lowe @conjugateprior.org · 12/12/2023

In causal inference there are row people: "I care about effects, defined in terms of cases, and consider their potential outcomes" (population 🎯, mechanism 🤷🏻) and column people: "I care about mechanisms, which relate variables, and how they behave under interventions" (mechanism 🎯, population 🤷🏻)

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Reposted by Christoffer H. Dausgaard

Peter Hull @instrumenthull.bsky.social · 08/12/2023

Great to see this out!

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Reposted by Christoffer H. Dausgaard

Malcolm 朝精 Barrett @malcolmbarrett.malco.io · 29/11/2023

We've made a major update to the causal diagrams chapter of Causal Inference in R! Check it out to learn about DAGs! I think there's a lot in this chapter that is undercovered in other sources. #rstats #causalinference @lucystats.bsky.social @travisgerke.bsky.social www.r-causal.org/chapters/05-...

A screenshot of Causal Inference in R: Causal Diagrams

A screenshot of a DAG from Causal Inference in R showing two open pathways in an analysis a scientist must account for to get the correct answer

A screenshot of a DAG from Causal Inference in R showing how to describe feedback loops in causal diagrams

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Reposted by Christoffer H. Dausgaard

Marina Costa Lobo @marinacostalobo.bsky.social · 25/11/2023

Over the course of my ERC project we collected panel surveys in BE, DE, ES, GR, IRE and PT in 2019-2021 on pol behaviour including voting in national and EP elections. Recently, those data have been deposited and are available here. dataverse.harvard.edu/dataverse/MA...

dataverse.harvard.edu

MAPLE ERC Project Datasets

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Reposted by Christoffer H. Dausgaard

Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 08/11/2023

Special election results tonight were ambiguous, with Republicans overperforming partisan lean in 3 and Democrats overperforming in 4. Overall for the cycle, though, Dems are still overperforming bigly. docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

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Reposted by Christoffer H. Dausgaard

Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · 03/11/2023

🤔 Model = parsimonious representation of a DGP intended to be refined by learning from data Theory = parsimonious representation of a DGP without such empirical refinement intention, perhaps for normative analysis or to spell out plausible counterfactuals

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Reposted by Christoffer H. Dausgaard

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 03/11/2023

New: Rs question the integrity of House races when their candidates lose at much higher rates than Ds, but candidate race and margin of loss have no measurable effect (w/@johncarey.bsky.social, B. Fogarty, @jasonreifler.bsky.social, and great Dartmouth students) sites.dartmouth.edu/nyhan/files/...

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Reposted by Christoffer H. Dausgaard

Daniel Bochsler @dbchslr.bsky.social · 01/11/2023

Everyone knows about retrospective (economic) voting. We asked who wins the votes that the incumbent loses. New parties? Established oppositions? Get one out of 50 copies of our @wepsocial.bsky.social article for free. www.tandfonline.com/eprint/GRD7C...

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Christoffer H. Dausgaard @chdausgaard.bsky.social · 01/11/2023

It definitely does. Hard to infer results from a forced conjoint if the real world choice situation includes an option to abstain. Luckily this is not hard to solve design-wise!

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Reposted by Christoffer H. Dausgaard

Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis) @avishaybsg.bsky.social · 01/11/2023

A 🧵 on Israeli strategy or lack thereof. Israel didn’t have a strategy for this war because Israel had no idea this war was coming. Netanyahu had a strategy: avoid war, weaken moderate Palestinians and contain Hamas. But it collapsed, leaving Israel confused and at war. 1/

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Christoffer H. Dausgaard @chdausgaard.bsky.social · 01/11/2023

Important stuff. Most conjoints force subjects to choose. This can distort results in unpredictable ways.

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Reposted by Christoffer H. Dausgaard

Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈 @josephpolitano.bsky.social · 29/10/2023

POV: you posted a chart of median real [insert data here] on the internet in 2023

An image of doomguy from the video game DOOM fending off demons labeled with things like "is this adjusted for inflation?", "this is from a survey of only 7000 people", "median numbers are distorted by the top 1%", "does inflation include food, energy, and housing?", "this data comes from the government, can you really trust them?","just look outside, this is obviously untrue"

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Reposted by Christoffer H. Dausgaard

Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 26/10/2023

This poll of Muslims in Britain, which is now being widely reported, is complete garbage. It is a self-selection social media poll, no better than the Daily Express "reader polls" showing "98% support for Brexit" or similar: x.com/MuslimCensus...

x.com

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Reposted by Christoffer H. Dausgaard

Khoa @khoavuumn.bsky.social · 25/10/2023

BREAKING: The GOP has decided to nominate rainfall as the new House Speaker.

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Reposted by Christoffer H. Dausgaard

Seb Jilke @sebjilke.bsky.social · 25/09/2023

📣 New WP alert 📣 osf.io/jq28n “Policy makers believe money motivates more than it does” With Flo Keppeler, John Ternvoski, Dominik Vogel & Erez Yoeli /Thread 🧵

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Reposted by Christoffer H. Dausgaard

Jacob Montgomery @jacobmontgomery.bsky.social · 14/10/2023

I don't know who needs to hear this, but if you are writing a paper where there are two theories Theory 1: X-->Y Theory 2: Z-->Y Then the regression model Y~ X + Z is probably not what you are looking for.

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Reposted by Christoffer H. Dausgaard

Helen Thomas @helentbiz.ft.com · 14/10/2023

I didn’t post much on the last place. I’m not entirely sure I’ll do better here. But hello. Here is something I wrote this week: uninsurability is the first stage of uninhabitability.

on.ft.com

The insurance world is flirting with its climate doom loop

Persistent extreme weather patterns demand appropriate pricing of risks and more emphasis on prevention

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Reposted by Christoffer H. Dausgaard

Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 13/10/2023

There is increasing evidence that the world has warmed faster over the past 15 years than it has since the 1970s. Surface records, ocean heat content, and the Earth's energy imbalance all support an acceleration of warming, as I argue in today's @nytimes.com: www.nytimes.com/2023/10/13/o...

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Reposted by Christoffer H. Dausgaard

Paul Hünermund @p-hunermund.com · 13/10/2023

The program of the Causal Data Science Meeting 2023 (Nov 7–8) is now available on our newly redesigned website. Check out the fantastic list of presentations and register for free under causalscience.org 🔊 Please share with your network!

causalscience.org

Causal Data Science Meeting - Home

Fostering a dialogue between industry and academia on causal data science.

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Reposted by Christoffer H. Dausgaard

Alex Coppock @aecoppock.bsky.social · 12/10/2023

My God, my God, why have you forsaken me!? This rain, it moves everything at once!

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Reposted by Christoffer H. Dausgaard

Ryan Briggs @ryancbriggs.net · 11/10/2023

Next week I'm teaching poverty measurement and I made a little shiny app where students can move incomes or the poverty line around and see how various common poverty measures change. Feel free to use or share or tell me what I should add or modify. ryanbriggs.shinyapps.io/Poverty_Meas...

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Reposted by Christoffer H. Dausgaard

LMU Open Science Center @lmu-osc.bsky.social · 09/10/2023

You can find all the training material (slides, lecture recordings, workshop tutorials) of our week-long summer school on open science in this repository: osf.io/nymr5/ Happy self-learning! #OSCSummerSchool23

Programme of the LMU Open Science Center Summer School 2023 - all info at: https://malikaihle.github.io/OSC-Open-Research-Summer-School-2023/

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Reposted by Christoffer H. Dausgaard

Carlisle Rainey 👨‍💻📊📚 @carlislerainey.bsky.social · 10/10/2023

New preprint posted! A little note to help folks think about the consequences of using one design when many designs would test the same general claim. Example: For an experiment on party cues, you need to cue positions on a particular policy. Which policy? osf.io/zaykd/ #polisky #statsky

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Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈 @josephpolitano.bsky.social · 10/10/2023

Current econTwitter drama is someone created a fake account to impersonate recent Nobel Prize winner Claudia Goldin, and used the attention to spread misinfo saying Amartya Sen had passed away??? Things are going great

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Reposted by Christoffer H. Dausgaard

🎃Darin S Pumpkins🎃 @darinself.com · 10/10/2023

What do MPSA and Kevin McCarthy have in common? Neither can make credible commitments

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ᴅᴀɴɪᴇʟ ᴍɪʟʟɪᴍᴇᴛ ✡️☮️❤️ @dlmillimet.bsky.social · 10/10/2023

📉📈 #EconSky I have a new @IZA WP with my colleague Hao Dong. Some might find it shocking, but I really like the paper. A 🧵 "Embrace the Noise: It Is OK to Ignore Measurement Error in a Covariate, Sometimes" docs.iza.org/dp16508.pdf

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Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛ @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 08/10/2023

Talking with a colleague about errors in conditioning and remembered this glorious example. His statement is conditional on encounter, but the rates shown are unconditional. This example is funny, but less funny when a judge makes a structurally similar mistake.

Bill Gates tweet from 2019 - "Why I would rather encounter a shark in the wild than a mosquito:" Graphic below titled "Mosquitos kill more people in one day than sharks kill a year" - shows 7 deaths in 2017 from shark attacks vs 1474 deaths in 2017 from mosquitos.

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Carl T. Bergstrom @carlbergstrom.com · 08/10/2023

I wanted to consolidate a few thoughts on google, misinformation, large language models, enshittification, and the fate of the web as we know it. It started when @carlzimmer.bsky.social shared this remarkable example of Google being fooled by machine-generated bullshit online. 1/n

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Benjamin C.K. Egerod @bcegerod.bsky.social · 07/10/2023

🚨Call for Papers🚨 Psyched to announce the CBS-Princeton Money in Politics conference to be held in Copenhagen, June 2024. Third iteration of the conference, always a fantastic experience. Send us your papers before Jan 5, '24! Link: shorturl.at/ampPV 1/2

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Christoffer H. Dausgaard @chdausgaard.bsky.social · 06/10/2023

Just concluded a 3-day workshop with the excellent @phuenermund.bsky.social on causal data science with DAGs. Even more bullish on this exciting research program now than I was before! And cannot recommend Paul’s workshops highly enough.

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