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Brad "Pencil Necked Geek" Humphreys

@bradhumphreys.bsky.social
802 followers 1.2K following 537 posts

Economist. "He's an impediment to Civic Progress" - Patrick La Forge, Edmonton Oilers President bradhumphreys.faculty.wvu.edu/home

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Reposted by Brad "Pencil Necked Geek" Humphreys
Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
KC officials raiding sales tax funds voters approved for other purposes; the mayor egregiously misleading about tax dollars being caused by the stadium; and most local media being uncritical…this is textbook how representative democracy fails in sports subsidies policy. www.kshb.com/news/local-n...
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Reposted by Brad "Pencil Necked Geek" Humphreys
J.C. Bradbury @jcbradbury.com · 27/09/2026
Here's a study I did. Ungated link: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/share/author...
DO MOVIE PRODUCTION INCENTIVES GENERATE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT?
John Charles Bradbury

Abstract
Movie production incentives (MPIs) are a popular economic development strategy employed by U.S. states. Film subsidies are intended to encourage external investment into a nascent industry that spills over onto complementary industries to generate economic growth through a multiplier. Despite their widespread use, the positive impact of MPIs on state economies has not been documented, and several states have halted their MPI programs due to high costs and questionable efficacy. This study exploits the staggered implementation, suspension, and elimination of film incentive programs across states to estimate the macroeconomic impact of MPIs. Instrumental variable estimates that permit causal inference do not support the hypothesized positive impacts of film incentives on state economies.
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Reposted by Brad "Pencil Necked Geek" Humphreys
J.C. Bradbury @jcbradbury.com · 27/09/2026
Scheduled pub date is Oct. 9, but it may start shipping before that. I've compiled a list of links to booksellers on my book webpage. I'll post an update when it starts shipping. jcbradbury.com/towbd/
jcbradbury.com
This One Will Be Different
False Promises and Fiscal Realities of Publicly Funded Stadiums, by economist J.C. Bradbury.
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Reposted by Brad "Pencil Necked Geek" Humphreys
naasecon.bsky.social @naasecon.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
NAASE is organizing sessions at the Eastern Economic Assoc. in New York City, February 11-14, 2027. If interested, please send paper title, abstract, and full contact info for all co-authors to Victor Matheson (vmatheso@holycross.edu) and Eva Leeds (leedse@moravian.edu) by Nov. 15, 2026.
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Reposted by Brad "Pencil Necked Geek" Humphreys
ProPublica @propublica.org · 26/09/2026
Hey, ProPublica reporter Jake Pearson here. I’m taking over the account to tell you about my new story. For months, I posed as a problem gambler on DraftKings to test the company's "responsible gaming" safeguards. Spoiler alert: They made me a VIP — and I lost $10K. Here's how it all went down. 🧵
Selfie taken by ProPublica reporter Jake Pearson, a man wearing a backwards baseball cap and an orange T-shirt.
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Reposted by Brad "Pencil Necked Geek" Humphreys
Charles Ornstein @charlesornstein.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Must read: I Deliberately Bet Like a Problem Gambler. DraftKings Made Me a VIP.
propublica.org
I Deliberately Bet Like a Problem Gambler. DraftKings Made Me a VIP.
Amid growing public health concerns, operators like DraftKings have touted “responsible gaming” tools and prompts. But as I went off the deep end, I found they were no match for the incentives and pro...
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Brad "Pencil Necked Geek" Humphreys @bradhumphreys.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Really interesting story about WVU economics PhD student (and my advisee) Matt Mullis and the gambling research he is doing as part of his dissertation stories.wvu.edu/high-roller
stories.wvu.edu
HIGH ROLLER - WVU Stories
A West Virginia University doctoral student uses statewide gambling data to research trends in igaming.
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Reposted by Brad "Pencil Necked Geek" Humphreys
Brian Mills @bmmillsy.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Just in case bean counters tell you "the expectations are much higher now in terms of how many papers you should have when you go up for full," well...we can of course check on that. (Keeping in mind that bean counting is not a great method)
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Reposted by Brad "Pencil Necked Geek" Humphreys
Adam Gurri @adamgurri.liberalcurrents.com · 19/09/2026
Edward Drinker Cope, a man with the right name for our era, born too early en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_...
en.wikipedia.org
Edward Drinker Cope - Wikipedia
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Reposted by Brad "Pencil Necked Geek" Humphreys
Dare Obasanjo @carnage4life.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Data science teams at DraftKings built models to identify likely losers and target them with promotions, while efforts to build predictive models for problem gambling were shelved. The counterpoint on self regulation is companies can be more incentivized to avoid identifying harm than addressing it
nytimes.com
At DraftKings, AI Targets the Gamblers Likeliest to Lose (Gift Article)
Data science helps determine who receives betting incentives, but the company has resisted using similar technology to protect gamblers at risk of addiction.
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Reposted by Brad "Pencil Necked Geek" Humphreys
Dr. Karen Weaver @drkarenweaver.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
College sports are increasingly being subsidized by gambling in many states, including North Carolina. www.wral.com/sports/unc-b...
wral.com
UNC Board of Governors to consider limits on spending, subsidies for college athletics
The board, which oversees public higher education in North Carolina, plans to discuss the state of college athletics and possible policies to curb growing expenses and control fees from students or ca...
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Brad "Pencil Necked Geek" Humphreys @bradhumphreys.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
I am certain that 20 y/o me, a junior business major at WVU would be impressed by current me, a professor in the College of Business and Economics at WVU.
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Brad "Pencil Necked Geek" Humphreys @bradhumphreys.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Wow. Just wow.
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Reposted by Brad "Pencil Necked Geek" Humphreys
Sarah Miller @smiller.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
A public-use version of the Open Research Unconditional income Study (ORUS) dataset is now posted! This RCT paid $1000/month to a treatment group for 3 years. Test your favorite hypotheses about the effects of guaranteed income! data.openresearchlab.org
data.openresearchlab.org
OpenResearch Unconditional Cash Study Public-Use Data – OpenResearch
Public-use data and documentation from OpenResearch’s randomized study of unconditional cash transfers.
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Reposted by Brad "Pencil Necked Geek" Humphreys
J.C. Bradbury @jcbradbury.com · 15/09/2026
FFS... "a new analysis says." It's NEVER happened before, and there's no reason to think it will happen this time. But STOP THE PRESSES! This concocted pile of nonsense deserves a headline.
latimes.com
A Summer Olympics economic windfall is headed for SoCal, a new analysis says
L.A.-based analysts say the 2028 Olympics will supercharge revenue, jobs and taxes. Projections for the Paris Olympics didn't pan out.
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Reposted by Brad "Pencil Necked Geek" Humphreys
J.C. Bradbury @jcbradbury.com · 14/09/2026
Shocker
ajc.com
Atlanta hotel occupancy dipped this summer during World Cup, new data show
Fewer hotel rooms were taken during this summer when Atlanta hosted eight matches of the FIFA World Cup than in the same period a year ago.
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Reposted by Brad "Pencil Necked Geek" Humphreys
Scorigami @nflscorigami.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
🏈 CHI 59 - 37 CAR FINAL ✅ That's Scorigami!! It's the 1096th unique final score in NFL history.
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Reposted by Brad "Pencil Necked Geek" Humphreys
Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 12/09/2026
The US President's new proposal to tax international students has been approved by the White House for release this week. It's an unprecedented $100,000 tax on int'l grads who stay to work after graduation on Optional Practical Training (most grads do), a crucial bridge to remaining by any channel.
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Reposted by Brad "Pencil Necked Geek" Humphreys
Washington Post Opinions @postopinions.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
"The proposal to hand over $300 million in tax dollars to renovate Audi Field is unnecessary corporate welfare," the Editorial Board writes.
wapo.st
Opinion | Yet another subsidy for a D.C. stadium? Really?
The proposal to hand over $300 million in tax dollars to renovate Audi Field is unnecessary corporate welfare.
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J.C. Bradbury @jcbradbury.com · 11/09/2026
As the NFL season kicks off, I've posted a short video on the NFL's current stadium-building boom, in which I explain why it's happening and will be costly for taxpayers. buff.ly/OgIBd6T
youtube.com
The NFL's Stadium Boom: The Next Generation of Boondoggles #NFL #stadiums #subsidies #TOWBD
Economist J.C. Bradbury explains why the NFL's current stadium-building boom is happening and what it's going to cost taxpayers.
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Unofficial BBCNews (World) Bot @bbcnews-world-rss.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
France lifts alcohol content limit on champagne after record heatwaves
bbc.co.uk
France lifts alcohol content limit on champagne after record heatwaves
Winemakers can make bubbly up to up to 15% ABV following an unusual harvest that produced sweeter grapes.
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Reposted by Brad "Pencil Necked Geek" Humphreys
J.C. Bradbury @jcbradbury.com · 12/09/2026
New study in Regional Science & Urban Economics: Who scores from hosting sports events? Local spending evidence from the EURO 2024. Surprise! Major sports events are a net fiscal loss to host cities. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Host cities for the EURO 2024 championship in Germany used existing stadiums and infrastructure, with targeted investments to modernize them. Associated infrastructure and sports facilities are expected to remain in intensive use beyond the event, increasing the likelihood of positive long-term returns on investment. In total, public expenditures associated with hosting amounted to approximately 333 million Euros, of which around 292 million were borne by the host cities themselves. Against this benchmark, our estimates suggest that the short-term consumer spending gains in selected tourist-related retail and service sectors are of a similar order of magnitude to the public expenditures for hosting the event.
This comparison, however, conflates gross consumer spending with public revenue. From a fiscal perspective, the latter constitutes the relevant benchmark for whether hosting is self-financing for host city budgets. As we show in Appendix G, only a small fraction of the additional spending translates into tax revenue: Our estimates suggest additional VAT and business tax receipts of at most a few tens of millions of Euros, well short of the roughly 292 million Euros in costs borne by host cities. From a public budget perspective, the EURO 2024 is best understood not as a self-financing investment but as a targeted subsidy to tourist-facing sectors, funded by host-city and federal taxpayers.
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Brad "Pencil Necked Geek" Humphreys @bradhumphreys.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
Pre GPS travel aids. IYKYK
Large box of European maps
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Reposted by Brad "Pencil Necked Geek" Humphreys
Contemporary Economic Policy @cep-sky.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Read here: doi.org/10.1111/coep... @wileyeconbiz.bsky.social
doi.org
Are natural resources a curse on the distributional consequences of financial development?
This paper examines how natural resource dependence shapes the distributional effects of financial development in developing economies. Using a balanced panel of 90 countries from 1995 to 2022 and dy...
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Brad "Pencil Necked Geek" Humphreys @bradhumphreys.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
MLB stars are training with ‘mad scientist’ undergrads in West Virginia (may be paywalled)
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Reposted by Brad "Pencil Necked Geek" Humphreys
Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 08/09/2026
LIV Golf files for bankruptcy with at least $500mn in liabilities ft.trib.al/y1viU5U
ft.trib.al
LIV Golf files for bankruptcy with at least $500mn in liabilities
Saudi Arabia-backed league confirms a preliminary deal with BC Partners to fund a LIV 2.0
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J.C. Bradbury @jcbradbury.com · 08/09/2026
If you're interested in reading up on minor league baseball stadium financing, here's a link to my recent study on the subject. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epub/10....
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
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J.C. Bradbury @jcbradbury.com · 04/09/2026
The NFL is in the midst of a stadium building boom. I explain why in @us.theconversation.com.
theconversation.com
Taxpayers don’t want to pay for new NFL stadiums – so why did politicians approve billions in subsidies to fund six new ones?
Research has repeatedly found that stadiums generate little economic benefit, while subsidy referendums often fail when put before voters. Yet team owners continue to receive billions in tax dollars.
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Brad "Pencil Necked Geek" Humphreys @bradhumphreys.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
I was at this game. Homecoming.
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NPR @npr.org · 02/09/2026
Los Angeles Clippers owner Steve Ballmer was suspended for one year by the NBA, and the team was ordered to pay $30 million for violating salary cap circumvention rules in a case involving Kawhi Leonard. n.pr/4xL0IVx
n.pr
NBA suspends Clippers owner Ballmer, fines team $30M, Kawhi Leonard $700K in cap circumvention case
Los Angeles Clippers owner Steve Ballmer was suspended for one year by the NBA, and the team was ordered to pay $30 million for violating salary cap circumvention rules in a case involving Kawhi Leonard.
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Reposted by Brad "Pencil Necked Geek" Humphreys
Brandon Marcello @brandonmarcello.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
An insurance company placed trades on Kalshi worth up to $3 million on LSU's season, matching Lane Kiffin's potential playoff bonuses Story for CBS Sports: www.cbssports.com/college-foot...
cbssports.com
Insurance company placed Kalshi trades worth up to $3 million on LSU's season, matching Lane Kiffin's bonus
A third-party insurer placed five trades on prediction market Kalshi that match the exact $3 million figure LSU would owe Lane Kiffin in College Football Playoff bonuses.
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Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 24/08/2026
What is the sound of lost innovation, lost startups, lost productivity, an impoverished American future? It’s this. This sound.
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Contemporary Economic Policy @cep-sky.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
✨New Article✨ Matsushima, Nishikawa, and Qiu propose a new theoretical mechanism where minimum wage regulation can simultaneously increase employment and a firms profit.
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Field of Schemes @fieldofschemes.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Yup, the Two-Minute Warning: grantland.com/the-triangle...
grantland.com
» How to Sell a Stadium in Six Easy Steps: Calgary Gets the High-Pressure Pitch
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Field of Schemes @fieldofschemes.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
It's entirely possible that Kansas City will approve its $1B+ share of an overall $1.5B+ Royals stadium subsidy just three days after the proposal was released, which would be in the running for shortest public discussion period ever for a stadium deal.
fieldofschemes.com
KC committee approves city $1B+ Royals stadium subsidy after security arrests opposition speaker
The $1.5 billion–plus Kansas City Royals stadium subsidy plan sailed through its first city council committee hearing yesterday, with the Finance, Governance and Public Safety Committee voting unanimo...
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Reposted by Brad "Pencil Necked Geek" Humphreys
J.C. Bradbury @jcbradbury.com · 18/08/2026
It's time for ...
“Stadium Booster Talking Points BINGO” card with a 5-by-5 grid of common arguments used to support stadium subsidies. Squares include phrases such as “Public-Private Partnership,” “Taxes Won’t Go Up,” “Community Asset,” “Job Creator,” “Pays For Itself,” “Transformative,” “Economic Impact ‘Study,’” “Public Investment,” “Civic Pride,” “Economic Catalyst,” and “Win-Win.” The center square reads “This One Will Be Different” in bold.
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J.C. Bradbury @jcbradbury.com · 18/08/2026
Neil offers a good summary of the the KC-Royals stadium proposal. Government representatives are rushing it through the approval process to minimize the amount of time people have to realize how historically awful it is. This is unethical leadership.
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Brad "Pencil Necked Geek" Humphreys @bradhumphreys.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
I recently received a grant from Arnold Ventures to study on-line sports betting. Looking for causal evidence on loss chasing. Here's a WVU Today piece about my research wvutoday.wvu.edu/stories/2026...
wvutoday.wvu.edu
WVU Today | WVU research aims to curb risky loss-chasing in online betting
Because gamblers often up the ante rather than cut their losses when their online bets and parlays are a bust, researchers at the West Virginia University John Chambers College of Business and Economi...
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Brad "Pencil Necked Geek" Humphreys @bradhumphreys.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
MLB pitcher Tommy John recently passed away. He was the eponym of a surgical procedure to repair torn elbow ligaments. He pitched for a long time after undergoing the procedure. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tommy_J...
en.wikipedia.org
Tommy John - Wikipedia
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NBER @nber.org · 16/08/2026
In econometric coding, giving AI more agency is far more valuable than increasingly sophisticated prompt engineering, from Sebastian Galiani, Federico Ariel López, and Raul A. Sosa www.nber.org/papers/w35588
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J.C. Bradbury @jcbradbury.com · 15/08/2026
Publication dates for This One Will Be Different are now set. Hardcover: October 9 E-book: August 24 Links to booksellers: jcbradbury.com/towbd/
jcbradbury.com
This One Will Be Different
False Promises and Fiscal Realities of Publicly Funded Stadiums, by economist J.C. Bradbury.
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Reposted by Brad "Pencil Necked Geek" Humphreys
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
I heard this week that the cesspool econ website EJMR went dark. it’s been offline for over a week now. no tears shed here. solid poetic justice that unrelenting AI bot attacks appear to have been its downfall. but it raises a question: where does the demand for info go next?
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Colin Camerer @cfcamerer.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
“Many elite athletes wait until after their playing careers end, or after major career milestones, before getting married. Balancing travel, training, scrutiny, and seasons makes postponing a wedding a practical choice” Any other reasons? think “Kardashians” www.nytimes.com/2026/08/11/s...
nytimes.com
Cristiano Ronaldo and Georgina Rodríguez Get Married
After nearly a decade together and five children in their blended family, the couple reportedly married in an intimate ceremony.
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Brad "Pencil Necked Geek" Humphreys @bradhumphreys.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Probably not. The actual expected value calculation involves a hard to estimate nonzero chance of splitting the jackpot that increases with the number of tickets sold.
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Reposted by Brad "Pencil Necked Geek" Humphreys
J.C. Bradbury @jcbradbury.com · 11/08/2026
I'm irritated that I made it too long, so here's a 3-minute version. youtube.com/shorts/DZEsD...
youtube.com
Lessons from Cleveland: The Birthplace of Stadium Subsidies #economics #stadiums #subsidies #TOWBD
YouTube video by J.C. Bradbury
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J.C. Bradbury @jcbradbury.com · 11/08/2026
I made a video about Cleveland's experience with stadium subsidies. youtu.be/r5d34fNbjjg?...
youtu.be
Lessons from Cleveland: The Birthplace of Stadium Subsidies #economics #stadiums #subsidies #TOWBD
YouTube video by J.C. Bradbury
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Brent Toderian @brenttoderian.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
“What Happens When Speed Cameras Get Shut Off?” No surprise… “In 2025, Ontario banned automated traffic enforcement. Now the number of drivers exceeding the speed limit has surged, according to traffic data.” What really happens is that lots more people die. And the Ontario Govt knew they would.
bloomberg.com
What Happens When Speed Cameras Get Shut Off
In 2025, Ontario banned automated traffic enforcement. Now the number of drivers exceeding the speed limit has surged, according to traffic data.
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Brad "Pencil Necked Geek" Humphreys @bradhumphreys.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
@chengyuanhua.bsky.social this looks relevant to your research
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Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Many many many people (like half of my students) wanna do DiD with a continuous treatment variable. When I first read the working paper version, I was like "well I can't do much with this knowledge until they provide some code"--but now there's an R package! bcallaway11.github.io/contdid/
bcallaway11.github.io
Difference-in-Differences with a Continuous Treatment
Provides methods for difference-in-differences with a continuous treatment and staggered treatment adoption. Includes estimation of treatment effects and causal responses as a function of the dose, ev...
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Pictures of Nixon @picturesofnixon.com · 09/08/2026
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