iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

Please let's not forget that DC United is in the middle of a 50% sales tax abatement incentive and only have to pay 25% of its real estate tax obligation. The first five years of land occupancy was 100% abatement of both, and the abatements phase out. Which is obvi why they want more DC money now.

023

Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

On the philly arena, the owners stated it would be privately funded. That's misleading. I have no doubt it will be privately financed, but the current and likely the new arena receive bigly tax breaks -> tax breaks fund the private financing. Hence, funding is public and private.

Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

While I’m enjoying Torre’s vindication laps and the well deserved apologies, I can’t be the only one asking of investigative sports journalism: great…can you please finally get around to doing facility subsidies and ignorant/sycophantic lawmakers?

041

Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

"Picked up the dagger, rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrun down the hall, and stabbed the cook." Curry obviously delivered a lot of great lines in the movie, but this r rolling has always been my favorite since childhood. rip.

Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

KC city staffers indicate there's no identified impact of the stadium project on people. Have you not heard of google f'ing scholar? Facility events -> slower EMS response times, faster rate of virus spread, increase property crime and interpersonal violence, and more. clerk.kcmo.gov/View.ashx?M=...

082

Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

This a f'ing joke, right? KS collected $6.0b in income taxes last year, $4.7b from the PIT. If this quote is accurate, the R candidate for KS gov believes the Chiefs being in KS will up state income tax collections by 30-100x. And the f'ing jobs comment! www.kmbc.com/article/kans...

Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

Nothing says, “visit Plano” like a 15% hotel tax. I guess, though, we can be pleased with lawmakers’ transparency. It’s rare for them anywhere to say openly they are going to build the arena no matter the outcome of a referendum. www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/p...

282

Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

OR has a high PIT burden. Why? Bc residents chose it. They chose to have no SUT and to limit ptaxes. The Blazers are trying to tell you a high PIT burden is a policy defect, but it's a feature, one voters chose. Just like TX chooses to have a stupid large ptax burden in large part bc it has no PIT.

031

Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

The logic that SA voters shouldnt vote on city money bc they approved co money is silly. In that vote, among other diffs, SA voters supported a smaller pool of money to be paid by co taxpayers, like voting to have part of your lunch bill paid by the table next to you. www.kens5.com/article/news...

kens5.com

021

Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

Author states that arenas being more profitable w/o pro sports than w/ goes against "prevailing wisdom." Sports econ/policy folks have known for decades. If this fact surprises, it's a signal you jump to conclusions too quickly. Teams are the most costly tenants. www.blazersedge.com/trail-blazer...

blazersedge.com

Would Portland be Better Off Financially Without the Blazers?

Empty arena? Lost revenue? Not so fast.

Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 01/08/2026

It's impossible to counteract this level of public finance ignorance. When you elect public officials that very obviously don't comprehend inconsistencies or contradictions in their fiscal logic, you should expect them to make expensive and wasteful decisions. www.ksat.com/news/local/2...

120

Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 29/07/2026

Multnomah comms proposing a diff rev stream for its Moda share shows public finance folk psychology at work and that politics rules econ in policy making. It doesnt matter which pot of taxpayer money you take from. It matters that you take from taxpayers. www.oregonlive.com/politics/202...

oregonlive.com

Looking for Blazers’ Moda Center solution, county commissioners eye new funding path

The Multnomah County Board of Commissioners is set to consider at least one new amendment at its Aug. 6 meeting.

091

Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

The Rays plan (inc ancillary) is "too big to fail"? Take the team's econ imp figure at face value (you shouldn't ofc), it's only 1.7% of county gdp. The better estimate is 0.17%. Either way, some city council members need to take a drug test. floridapolitics.com/archives/808...

floridapolitics.com

‘Too big to fail:’ Rays negotiators weigh alternatives if Tampa Council votes fall short

Negotiators are closing in on final Rays stadium agreements as officials weigh options that could exclude the Tampa CRA.

000

Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

Cleveland media keeps framing gateway repairs as a long term funding problem. It’s not. There already is a dedicated revenue stream. The problem is that the city agreed to overfund overimproved facilities. The city overspent relative to its revenue capacity. www.cleveland.com/opinion/2026...

cleveland.com

After state politicians whiff on sin-tax vote, what's the solution for sports venue repairs?

For everyone involved in the dilemma of how to right-size funding for publicly owned stadium and arena repairs in Cuyahoga County, it’s important to remember that doing nothing would not be leadership...

061

Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 19/07/2026

Yes, Bears moving to Hammond could cause at least one other biz to relocate there. I'm sure at least one kid will set up a lemonade stand. This is vacuous, equivalent to me saying I could win the lotto. You know there's nothing useful when the story is all about "could" nwitimes.com/news/local/a...

nwitimes.com

Bears Hammond stadium search could attract more Illinois companies to Northwest Indiana

The Chicago Bears' high-profile, headline-grabbing stadium search in Hammond has put Northwest Indiana in the spotlight and could help draw more Illinois companies across the state line, economic deve...

000

Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 19/07/2026

Stop asking for clawbacks if a team moves. It’s a wasted negotiation parameter. Instead, ask for clawbacks if the team doesn’t win, doesn’t sellout, doesn’t deliver ancillary on time, and if owners/team do something that hurt city/co public image. www.kptv.com/2026/07/18/c...

032

Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 14/07/2026

Voting on leg that you don’t have all the facts on is common for lawmakers, which obvi doesn’t make it right or smart. Elect better. But the insane part in Portland is that the city owns the f’ing arena. Why let yourself be bullied? Come up with your own reno design! www.opb.org/article/2026...

opb.org

Portland City Council won’t have all answers before voting on Moda Center funding package

As a deadline to commit public dollars to Moda Center renovations rapidly approaches, it appears that Portland city councilors will be asked to approve spending $120 million on arena renovations next ...

1135

Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 14/07/2026

Can [juris name] afford the debt on [proposed facility]? Yes, bc govts have the power to tax. With enough time and some principal payment, any debt can be repaid. It's also an irrelevant Q. The right Q is if residents are better off with or without higher taxes and the cap imps the taxes pay for.

Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 14/07/2026

My Bentley comment lacks context in the Bears story. I was responding to a question about credibility/reasonability of fiscal impact estimates by Indiana leg. Here are screenshots of my complete comment, including my fat-fingered typos. www.chicagotribune.com/2026/07/14/c...

Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

Fun fact: In its pursuit of MLB in 2001, the Oregon legislature approved a property tax exemption for any lessee of a city-owned sports facility. 25 years later that legislation is protecting the Blazers after the city bought the arena. Without that legislation, the Blazers would owe PI taxes.

Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 02/07/2026

Theories on Dundon: the NBA BOG approved his purchase bc they don’t want the NBA in Portland; they didn’t know he’d be a twat and now have buyers remorse; or they knew he was going to be a twat and wanted him to be the foil to make all other owners look benevolent—-good owner/bad owner sorta thing.

Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 25/06/2026

As I pointed out to a journalist, under it's 1992 lease, OAC/Rip City had to surrender it's ownership in Moda by no later than 12/31/25 anyway. That the city bought it for $1 in 2024 means a few things but to me the most interesting is that the city overpaid (but did get ownership 1.5 years early).

Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 18/06/2026

For anyone that cares about such things, data centers should be centrally assessed. They are nodes in an information utility system, not warehouses with lots of personal property. This means valuing them as parts of a system rather than as standalone brick+mortar. This is a hill I’ll die on.

Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 15/06/2026

The idea that the value of a ptax break is based ONLY on current land use reveals a deeply flawed understanding of land econ. By this logic, govt should own all property bc it would generate no taxes, hence no taxpayer cost, an f'ing bonkers and false claim. www.chicagobusiness.com/opinion/comm...

Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 11/06/2026

Modesto kills USL stadium proposal in the works for two years. For now anyway. What makes this remarkable is that it was rejected on a vote, not killed in some committee early in the policy process. www.modbee.com/news/local/a...

modbee.com

Modesto kills professional soccer stadium idea. But is the decision final?

The hope of having a professional soccer stadium in Modesto is dead, at least for the foreseeable future.

Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 07/06/2026

Stars arena in Plano is on the agenda tomorrow. Under the current plan, a referendum will be required. Proposed TIRZ is both ptax and sut. Also on the table: increases in the car rental tax, hotel tax, event parking tax, and admission tax. My current est for the ptax TIRZ is $645m pv over 30 yrs.

031

Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 01/06/2026

Someone should tell DeSantis he didn’t make a property tax savings calculator. He made a home insurance premium increase calculator. Interesting H0, though: eliminating ptaxes increases FL home insurance suppliers. www.wfla.com/news/desanti...

wfla.com

DeSantis rolls out property tax savings calculator amid tax relief proposal

Gov. Ron DeSantis unveiled a new state website Saturday allowing homeowners to calculate potential savings under his proposed property tax plan, ‘Save Our Homes.’

Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 31/05/2026

The real loser of the Spurs-Thunder series is Vivek Ranadive. Mike Brown and DeAaron Fox (and Harrison Barnes) are going to the Finals. As a Kings fan, I’m stoked for them.

040

Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 28/05/2026

You can't solve the stadium subsidy mess with more subsidies, so the whole "let's get the feds to make stadiums/arenas eligible for historic tax credits to reduce s&l govts buying new stadiums every 30 years" is a silly argument. www.cleveland.com/opinion/2026...

cleveland.com

Billion-dollar sports subsidy demands require a congressional response

It is past time to acknowledge that billion-dollar sports subsidy demands are federal issues requiring a congressional response, writes guest columnist Ken Silliman, who advised three Cleveland mayors...

032

Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 21/05/2026

Subsidy debates are filled with bromides. Case in point, Hillsborough Comms' dropping "real" to make themselves sound thoughtful, presumably in an attempt to convince skeptics that they haven't already made up their minds. Real tax base as opposed to fake tax base? www.tampabay.com/news/hillsbo...

tampabay.com

What each Hillsborough commissioner said about the Rays’ proposal

County commissioners voted in favor of the non-binding memorandum of understanding, 5-2.

110

Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

Oregonian ed board arguing Portland's fiscal challenges are not caused by declining revenue but soaring costs. Its rec solution to soaring costs? Subsidize an arena reno. Re declining revenue, the city bought the arena, removing it from the tax rolls for ~$2m/yr www.oregonlive.com/opinion/2026...

oregonlive.com

Editorial: Moda Center discussions need city leaders’ professionalism, not their hot takes

The city can and must get a lease negotiated and funding set this year to renovate the Moda Center arena, the editorial board writes. Grandstanding by city councilors isn't helping.

Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 17/05/2026

I watch Korean baseball. Twice each break are Trump commercials praising him for reducing cigarette smoking. The argument? He is making flavored vapes cheaper and more accessible. We should praise Trump bc he is increasing addiction another way. That’s his argument. I live in a Black Mirror episode.

000

Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 02/05/2026

Props to whoever convinced lawmakers to drop the clause in the megaprojects bill that allowed a project's market value to be included in local debt limits. There are other reasons why ptaxes will go up bc of the legislation, but that was easily the biggest risk factor. Hopefully it stays out.

100

Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

SF1501 in MN creates a sports event slush fund from tax increments---but which increments for which taxes measured by whom? The bill spells out the 1st (a mega tif!) and the third-ish. UMN will determine the size of the increment, uh, but UMN isn't a person. My $ is on the marketing dept.

Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 29/04/2026

More air tight lawmaker logic. The arena is city owned only bc the city bought it and some land in 2024 from the blazers, costing city taxpayers ~$2m/yr in ptaxes. Now the gov uses that policy choice to give hundreds of millions more in taxpayer resources to the team. www.koin.com/news/portlan...

Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

Caputo’s in Brooklyn…you made the best olive loaf I’ve ever had, and you were a staple of my family’s life while we lived there. Sorry to see you go, and thank you for the memories.

000

Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 23/04/2026

There's enough info to get a ballpark ptax cost estimate of Royals Hallmark HQ stadium proper. Nom is $678 to $1,384 m --- real is $428 to $873 m (at 3%) over 30yrs. Here's a table showing the cost distributed by the public services affected by the proposed exemption.

Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 22/04/2026

I will take the over on 10 times "transformational" or its derivatives are used in the Royals announcement.

000

Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 22/04/2026

While we all wait for Royals shenanigans, here's a window into how lawmakers make terrible fiscal and budgeting decisions. It doesn't matter if it's a rounding error. If you dismiss spending millions bc it's a small %, you can always justify taxing and spending more. www.wusf.org/sports/2026-...

000

Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 15/04/2026

I’m sure this has something to do with website building, but how does Armenian get plugged into KMBC’s article about Royals stadium? Curiously, Google says the same typo appeared in a Business Insider Africa article two days ago. Not sports related; just curious.

Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 11/04/2026

NASA sounds like cell phone customer service. NASA: “Just to confirm you are pressing the PTT (push to talk) button?” Astronaut inside voice: “Really? I just came back from the f’ing moon and you’re asking me if I’m pressing the walkie talkie button?” Astronaut outside voice: “Yes.”

041

Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

Illinois state lawmakers willing to log roll Bears support for property tax relief clearly have no f’ing clue what the megaproject bill does. Any project’s EAV gets included in taxing authorities’ debt limit. This means tax rates can (and will) increase. capitolnewsillinois.com/news/house-r...

capitolnewsillinois.com

House Republicans outline what it will take for them to vote on Bears bill

SZALINSKI’S SUMMARY: Some Illinois House Republicans say they’d vote for a megaprojects bill to help the Chicago Bears build a

000

Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 09/04/2026

Show Me Act covers 50% + $50m in tax credits. That’s $1b of the proposed $1.9b (a little less in npv). The city kicks in $600m upfront, getting to $1.6b. JackCo probably kicks in the rest? Free stadium for Sherman?

121

Geoffrey Propheter @gpropheter.bsky.social · 09/04/2026

A whole week to evaluate a financing plan that would give billions to a billionaire? Missouri lawmakers, you are so generous! For a reference point, as of today state and city lawmakers have had 60x more time to debate whether to ban liquor stores from selling mini liquor bottles in KC.