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Natskifte

@beeeeeeel.bsky.social
740 followers 1.2K following 1.2K posts

Natten er nu - Brian Enevoldsen - Klimadebat

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Natskifte @beeeeeeel.bsky.social · 5h
Satellites show Earth's energy imbalance has roughly doubled since the early 2010s, to ~1.5 W/m²: Earth absorbs more sunlight. Just as worrying: we don't know exactly why. Cleaner air, fewer clouds, less ice? Likely a mix, but the split is debated. To me, that calls for precaution over reaction.
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Natskifte @beeeeeeel.bsky.social · 17h
Heat in the upper 2000 m of the ocean is less noisy than surface temperature. So I looked at the data (largely from Argo floats) for signs that ocean warming has sped up in recent years. The chart suggests it has. It proves nothing on its own, but it supports those who say warming is accelerating.
Line chart, dark background. Global ocean heat content 0–2000 m from 2005 to 2025, as anomaly from the 2006–2015 average, in zettajoules (ZJ). A thin red line shows monthly values, a thick red line the 12-month mean, and a faint red band the 95% uncertainty. The curve rises steadily from about −53 ZJ in 2005 to +188 ZJ in mid-2025 (12-month mean). Two dashed white trend lines: 8.8 ZJ per year for 2005–2014 and 13.9 ZJ per year for 2015–2025, about 1.6 times faster. A dotted line continuing the 2005–2014 pace ends around +125 ZJ in 2025, well below the actual curve. The last six months are shaded as preliminary and subject to revision. 2025 averaged 23 ZJ above 2024. Data: IAPv4.2, Cheng et al. 2024.
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Prof Ian Hall @ianhall.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
The argument to give nature legal rights seems compelling, not because a declaration alone can solve climate and biodiversity crises, but because it can shift whose interests the law protects. The real test will be enforcement and turning recognition into action. www.nature.com/articles/d41...
nature.com
Nature has rights — it is time the world recognized them
Existing legal frameworks have not halted planetary crises. Recognizing the rights of nature could offer a different path.
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Rob Larter @polarrobs.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
ALERT! Antarctic sea ice extent today tied with that in 2023 for the record low for the date, and on the present trajectory it is about to set new records. Graphic by @zacklabe.com zacklabe.com/antarctic-se...
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Prof Ian Hall @ianhall.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
🌊 The concerning thing isn’t just that global SST is at a record-breaking +0.75°C above the 1991–2020 baseline. It’s the trajectory 🤯
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Dr. Aaron Thierry @thierryaaron.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
“What we are seeing now is a complete explosion of these melt rates, leading to the disintegration of glaciers. They’re really just falling apart.” #Switzerland 🇨🇭 #ClimateEmergency
theguardian.com
‘Explosion of melt rates’: 20% of Swiss glaciers lost in five years
Alpine regions in Europe experiencing extreme glacier collapse due to heat-trapping effects of fossil fuel pollution
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Prof Ian Hall @ianhall.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
23,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 joules. That’s the amount of heat the oceans absorbed in 2025. A number so huge it’s almost meaningless…until you realise it’s roughly 40× humanity’s annual energy use. The ocean is buying us time. We’re running out of it. www.theguardian.com/environment/...
theguardian.com
World’s oceans absorbed record heat equal to 40 times annual global energy use
The injection of thermal energy comes amid an increasing rise in sea levels and continuing acidification
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Natskifte @beeeeeeel.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
In 2025, the German Physical Society (DPG) and Meteorological Society (DMG) warned that 3°C "could" be reached around 2050 [1]. The claim still circulates, often without the "could". I shared it myself back then. So I went back to check what it actually rests on. 🧵
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Paul Macdonald @paulmac.bsky.social · 26/12/2024
Anthropogenic Global Warming: Fossil Fuel Pollution, Severe Weather, CO2, Plants, Food, Nutrients, Food Chains, & Supply Chains 🧵 www.scientificamerican.com/article/corr...
scientificamerican.com
Correction: Plants Will Not Flourish as the World Warms
A new study contradicts the notion that higher temperatures will enhance plant growth
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Dr. Jonathan Foley @globalecoguy.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
When it comes to climate change, the amount of money going to effective solutions matters. After all, we are talking about rebuilding the world. Sadly, money going into climate is way down from a few years ago. In government funding, investing, corporate spending, etc. We need to turn that around.
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Dr. Jonathan Foley @globalecoguy.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Did you know that producing one pound of beef is 25-50x worse for climate change than burning a pound of coal? In fact, it’s one of the most polluting things we can consume. And grass-fed beef is usually *even worse* — thanks to its much higher land use and methane emissions.
Bar chart showing greenhouse gas emissions for different food items. Beef is the worst, by far.
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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 22/09/2026
The world has made real progress in steering away from some of the darkest climate futures where global emissions doubled (or more) this century. But as David Wallace-Wells and I note in today's NYT, we are not out of the woods yet, and climate uncertainty is not our friend: www.nytimes.com/2026...
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
When I think of the Strait of Hormuz & the discussions on whether it leads to a change in emissions trajectory as people get off oil-based products, I think of this graph... It took 4-5 years for aviation to fully rebound after COVID! Figure from here: robbieandrew.github.io/internationa...
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Natskifte @beeeeeeel.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
www.youtube.com/watch?v=UNvJ...
youtube.com
Meshell Ndegeocello - With God on Our Side with W/Bill Callahan, Chris Thile (Official Video)
YouTube video by MeshellNdegeVEVO
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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 22/09/2026
I have a new piece out in Nature today on the record-breaking 2026/2027 El Niño, what impacts we should expect, and how governments can prepare. The Niño3.4 region is currently running more than 1C hotter than any prior event on record, and we remain months away from the peak www.nature.com/artic...
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 22/09/2026
Your 'bonus moment of doom' for today: "The latest science confirms that we have breached, that we've transgressed seven of the nine planetary boundaries that regulate the health of the entire planet." www.youtube.com/watch?v=LnpE...
youtube.com
Official Planetary Health Check 2026 with Johan Rockström
YouTube video by Planetary Boundaries Science
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Leon Simons @leonsimons.com · 20/09/2026
Is Solar Geoengineering Too Risky? With Chris Parker Join us later today on Climate Chat. Link below. See the time for your region in the link below and subscribe and hit the bell button to get a notification when we go live. www.youtube.com/live/-GyXpRs...
youtube.com
Is Solar-Geoengineering Too Risky? with Chris Parker
In this Climate Chat episode, we interview interview climate scient...
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ClimateBook @climatebook.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
This is very good framing, and a good counterpoint to doomism. "Overshooting 1.5C is not a reason to give up"
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Dr. Aaron Thierry @thierryaaron.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
"So every year you failed to deliver what's necessary, the following year is harder... if the problem gets harder every single year, I don't call that progress. Progress is only when that you make you're either delivering what you need to or you're going over & above that"-@kevinclimate.bsky.social
youtube.com
Climate Scientist: Why Net Zero 2050 is a Dangerous Delusion | Kevin Anderson
YouTube video by Climate Unf*cked
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Prof Ian Hall @ianhall.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
This is a striking headline... but also a reminder that climate hazards interact, cascade and compound. Heat, drought and fire weather don’t happen in isolation. They can interact with flood risk, disrupt food production, damage ecosystems and worsen air quality. www.theguardian.com/world/2026/s...
theguardian.com
Babies ‘will face almost twice as much’ extreme fire weather in Europe than great-grandparents
Children born after 2025 will experience three more years of brutally fire-conducive weather as global heating intensifies
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Prof Ian Hall @ianhall.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
🌊 Ocean acidification has now joined the list of exceeded planetary boundaries. That makes 7 of 9. These are interconnected Earth-system pressures, collectively eroding resilience and shrinking humanity’s safe operating space. www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/late...
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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
It’s official, the 2026 El Niño has broken a record for the highest ocean anomaly in 170+ years… Incredibly reaching that threshold a full 2 months ahead of 2015’s record of +3.02C set on Nov 18th. See that red line? That’s 2026. Every other bold line are the strongest El Niño’s on record. 1/
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 21/09/2026
Yesterday's Nino 3.4 SST was 29.73°C (preliminary), setting the 114th consecutive daily record, 0.93°C higher than the previous daily high set in 2015 and 3.78σ above the 1991-2020 mean. The highest recorded sea-surface temperature for the Nino 3.4 region is 29.82°C, set on November 17, 2015.
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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 21/09/2026
This year's El Niño event is moving into record territory, with the daily Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) tying the record previously set during the 2015/2016 super-El Niño. My latest over at Carbon Brief: www.carbonbrief.org/...
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Many countries now report GHG emissions to the UNFCCC. There is a wealth of data, and many stories to tell. Check out the processed data here, via @wflamb.bsky.social lambwf.github.io/Tidy-GHG-Inv...
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Rob Larter @polarrobs.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
It seems to me that most people think we can overshoot emission targets a bit and then easily correct that later. We need better communication of the tipping point risks involved and the extreme difficulty of reversing warming.
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Andy Scollick @andyscollick.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Maybe the world should do the same to United States? Pay it back in kind: call in all its debts, crash its economy, bring down the Trump administration.
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Charles Keener @charleskeener.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
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Simon Oldridge @sioldridge.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
It’s extraordinary that as we breach 1.5° - which only in 2018, the IPCC said wouldn’t be reached until 2040 - that the PM is still holding up net zero by 2050 as an adequate response!

 The threat level has changed dramatically since the UK adopted its NZ by 2050 aim. Just a few examples: 🧵
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Kevin Pluck @kevpluck.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Stop voting for parties that promise tax cuts.
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Andy Scollick @andyscollick.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Politicians like @eddavey.libdems.org.uk and other people who think that oil & gas from the #NorthSea #Jackdaw and Shetland #Rosebank fields will substitute for imported fossil hydrocarbons, or are necessary during the energy transition are sorely mistaken.
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Natskifte @beeeeeeel.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
CO2 since 1850: ~2,500 billion tonnes. Total plastic ever made since 1950: ~11 billion tonnes. Plastic dominates headlines, but it's under 0.5% of the CO2 mass. Different problems, wildly different scales.
Cumulative CO2 emissions vs. plastic production bar chart. CO2 emitted since 1850: 2,500 billion tonnes. Plastic produced since 1950: 11 billion tonnes. Plastic is under 0.5% of the CO2 mass. Sources: Global Carbon Project/Carbon Brief for CO2; Geyer et al. 2017 plus later production data for plastic.
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Natskifte @beeeeeeel.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
CO2-lagring (CCS) er udpeget som en hjørnesten i dansk klimapolitik – og fredag blev det fejret med kongebesøg og fest i Esbjerg. Men bag festen gemmer sig et regnskab, der er langt mere usikkert, end vi bliver fortalt. En tråd om tal, mål og manglende visioner.
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Torsten Gejl @torstengejl.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Landbruget lukker store mængder CO2 ud, der skaber klimaforandringer, der opvarmer havene, så det kvælstof, de også lukker ud skaber mere iltsvind. Og hvad gør de? De holder traktordeminstrationer for at lukke mere ud. Whats’ to like? www.dr.dk/nyheder/vejr...
dr.dk
Fremtidens hedebølger i havet vil forværre det iltsvind, vi allerede kæmper mod
Temperaturen i de danske farvande vil fortsætte med at stige, viser nye beregninger fra DMI. Det gør havet langt mere følsomt over for overskydende gødning fra markerne.
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Ruth Mottram @ruthmottram.eurosky.social · 18/09/2026
Holy Moly! Danmark: vi fik vores egen vindy med @dmidk.bsky.social data! Stor tillykke med en fantastisk projekt @niklasjordan.com 👏👏👏 Lige præcis hvorfor vi har #FrieData...
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Andy Scollick @andyscollick.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
SPICE stands for Slaughter Palestinians In Callous Enmity. 1000 at a time.
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Andy Scollick @andyscollick.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Between 2.1 billion and 3.7 billion people (depending on the scenario) will be exposed to unprecedented heat or pushed out of the human niche by 2090. That's a very large pool of potential future international migrants.* Planning and managing climate migration requires realism.
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Adam McKay @ghostpanther.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Friendly reminder that Corps use news, social media & elected officials to push their agendas so they enter ur social circles and become “world view” and “culture.” Which is how most ppl don’t know this is coming: www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
theguardian.com
The incoming ‘super’ El Niño will create chaos around the world. And we are far from ready for it | Bill McGuire
One of the biggest upheavals in a millennium is on its way, strengthened by the climate crisis. We need leaders who make things better not worse, says climate professor Bill McGuire
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David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
NSF has reduced the research budget for all atmospheric, ocean, and earth sciences by ~80%. 80%! A lot of us will not be conducting new research or training new students for the foreseeable future.
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ClimateBook @climatebook.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
This update is consistent with what my colleagues at the Oxford Livestock, Environment and People project found, esp. in their "Grazed and Confused" report. New data consolidates those findings. Regenerative grazing may make happier cows (up to the point of slaughter) but doesn't help climate
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Natskifte @beeeeeeel.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Northern Europe (Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, the Baltics, UK, Ireland) has warmed about 2x faster than the global average since 1980: +0.41 vs +0.21 °C/decade. A thread on that gap, and on how long it's persisted:
Northern Europe (Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, the Baltics, UK, Ireland) has warmed about 2x faster than the global average since 1980: +0.41 vs +0.21 °C/decade. A thread on that gap, and on how long it's persisted:
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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Ocean anomalies up to +14°F! While El Niño drives global weather patterns, its biggest impacts are arguably local in #Peru, #Ecuador and the #Galápagos Islands. The extreme warmth along the coast is disrupting one of the most productive ocean ecosystems on Earth. 1/
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Natskifte @beeeeeeel.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
I built a small tool to check something I've been curious about: is the ocean and atmosphere actually working together on the current El Niño, or is the water just warm on its own? I'm not a climate scientist — just someone digging into a mechanism called the Bjerknes feedback.
Four stacked line charts titled "ENSO Ocean-Atmosphere Coupling Proxy," dark background, sharing a 1980-2026 time axis. Panel 1: Nino 3.4 sea-surface-temperature anomaly in degrees C, oscillating roughly between -2 and +2.5, ending at +2.52C in August 2026. Panel 2: Central Pacific 850 hPa trade-wind index in m/s, positive meaning stronger trade winds, moving roughly as a mirror image of panel 1, ending at -6.30 m/s. Panel 3: a 24-month rolling regression slope between the two series, in m/s of wind response per degree C of SST anomaly, fluctuating mostly between 0 and -4, ending at -3.02. Panel 4: the rolling correlation strength (r-squared, 0 to 1) between SST and wind, cycling between near 0 and about 0.9 several times across the record, ending at 0.88 in August 2026, near the highest values since 1982. A footer credits NOAA CPC, CPC OISST and Climate Dashboard as data sources, notes this is a simplified two-variable proxy rather than the full Bjerknes Stability Index, and credits the chart to Brian E.
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Natskifte @beeeeeeel.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
dashboard.theclimatebrink.com#global
dashboard.theclimatebrink.com
Climate Dashboard
Daily-updated global temperature tracker: ERA5 daily data, multi-model ENSO forecasts, annual projections, and climate models vs. observations.
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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 14/09/2026
With all the September runs of dynamic ENSO models now in (with the exception of SINTEX), we are even more likely to see a record-setting (or even record-shattering) event this year. Most models revised their projection upward, a few downward, and a few unchanged:
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Jussi T. Eronen @jussiteronen.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Now the news starts to be packed full of El Nino prognostics and impact predictions. The best overall view of the phenomena is provided by this Carbon Brief article.. interactive.carbonbrief.org/el-nino-expl...
interactive.carbonbrief.org
Explainer: How the ‘super El Niño’ will reshape the world’s weather
The world is currently experiencing what is expected to become the strongest El Niño on record – dubbed a “super El Niño” by many.
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Tim Baxter @timinclimate.naruresearch.com.au · 14/09/2026
On the bright side, the millions of people who hate the word "moist" have a new reason to take to the streets.
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 14/09/2026
Your 'bonus moment of doom' for today: "it is unimaginable that any month in the last few thousand years, maybe 100,000 years, has more [Precipitable water] in the atmosphere than August 2026." www.theclimatebrink.com/p/the-atmosp...
theclimatebrink.com
The Atmosphere Just Set a Water Vapor Record
More water vapor means more rocket fuel for extreme rain — so this record is not good news
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Natskifte @beeeeeeel.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Gødskningsloven er vedtaget. Endelig regulering af landbrugets kvælstofudledning — nødvendig, forsinket, og stadig utilstrækkelig i sig selv. Men der er strukturelle svagheder, der kan gøre den til endnu et "historisk" tiltag på papiret. 🧵
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