Sign in

Bernie Bastien-Olvera

@bbastien.bsky.social
223 followers 161 following 31 posts

Interdisciplinary climate change scientist and communicator • National Geographic Explorer ⛰️ • Assistant Professor at UNAM 🇲🇽

PostsRepliesMedia
Reposted by Bernie Bastien-Olvera
ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
The final paper from a fantastic interdisciplinary collaboration between ecologists and economists to better understand climate change impacts on natural capital and implications for policy. Also produced bangers from @bbastien.bsky.social's dissertation, such as: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Unequal climate impacts on global values of natural capital - Nature
Country-level changes in economic production and the value of non-market ecosystem benefits show unequal impacts on the global values of natural capital resulting from climate-change-induced shifts in...
0105
Reposted by Bernie Bastien-Olvera
ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
Paper @science.org today led by Junna Wang and my @ucdavis.bsky.social colleague Xiaoli Dong. 7-16% of plants at risk of extinction under climate change, largely from vanishing climates, not slow dispersal. But plants will move, reshaping local species composition www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
science.org
Climate-induced range shifts support local plant diversity but don’t reduce extinction risk
14322
Reposted by Bernie Bastien-Olvera
Vivek Srikrishnan @vsrikrish.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
In which @madisoncondon.bsky.social and I expand on our argument that "extreme" climate scenarios, such as RCP 8.5, are actually useful and we should use them as part of climate risk analyses. Thanks to @progressivereform.bsky.social for encouraging us and giving us space!
22412
Reposted by Bernie Bastien-Olvera
Dana Nuccitelli @dananuccitelli.bsky.social · 23/02/2026
A new paper led by @bbastien.bsky.social estimates that accounting for climate pollution's impact on the oceans via the one-two punch of warming & acidification nearly doubles the social cost of carbon (which the Trump EPA thinks is $0). My new @climateconnections.bsky.social article & 🧵 (1/8):
yaleclimateconnections.org
Fossil fuel pollution’s effect on oceans comes with huge costs » Yale Climate Connections
A new study details the vast price society is paying for burning coal, oil, and gas.
33030
Reposted by Bernie Bastien-Olvera
Dana Nuccitelli @dananuccitelli.bsky.social · 23/02/2026
As @bbastien.bsky.social told me, improved estimates of the social cost of carbon are still valuable to other countries, and even state governments. And at some point, a future evidence-based administration will be able to make use of it too. Hopefully before the damages become too great (8/8)
yaleclimateconnections.org
Fossil fuel pollution’s effect on oceans comes with huge costs » Yale Climate Connections
A new study details the vast price society is paying for burning coal, oil, and gas.
061
Bernie Bastien-Olvera @bbastien.bsky.social · 06/02/2026
That’s how we officially kick off the semester in my research lab—with ambitious goals, beautiful human beings and delicious tamales! Check out our new lab page here: climaysociedad.atmosfera.unam.mx/hub-ecosiste...
020
Reposted by Bernie Bastien-Olvera
Juan Moreno-Cruz @jmorenocruz.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
New paper with Francisco Estrada! This is a paper on termination shock risk and the governance challenge of deploying solar geoengineering when international coordination is so hard to achieve. Paper: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1... New Scientist: www.newscientist.com/article/2513...
newscientist.com
Termination shock could make the cost of climate damage even higher
Solar geoengineering could halve the economic cost of climate change, but stopping it would cause temperatures to rebound sharply, leading to greater damage than unabated global warming
42515
Reposted by Bernie Bastien-Olvera
Johannes Emmerling @johannesemm.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
Climate change has an impact on the oceans, which in turn affects humanity, including our economy. In this recent paper, we quantify these impacts www.nature.com/articles/s41..., led by @bbastien.bsky.social with @francescogranella.bsky.social @maxtav.bsky.social within @sparccle.bsky.social project
nature.com
Accounting for ocean impacts nearly doubles the social cost of carbon - Nature Climate Change
Oceans provide essential ecosystem services to human society, yet the climate impacts on blue capital have long been ignored. Incorporating the latest works on ocean science and economics, researchers...
175
Reposted by Bernie Bastien-Olvera
Humanities & Social Sciences @hss.springernature.com · 21/01/2026
🔍 Behind the Paper: 'My Neighbor, the Ocean.' 🌊 The system that regulates the planet’s climate barely appeared in climate policy calculations. Not because it had been “wrong” before, but because it had been incomplete.🔗 Read more here: bit.ly/49NXSo4. @bbastien.bsky.social #ClimateChange
My Neighbor, the Ocean
001
Reposted by Bernie Bastien-Olvera
Charles Thistlethwaite @charlest.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
The social cost of carbon (SCC), a crucial indicator for #climatechange policy, has largely overlooked the significant economic and societal benefits provided by oceans, often referred to as 'blue capital'. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Accounting for ocean impacts nearly doubles the social cost of carbon - Nature Climate Change
Oceans provide essential ecosystem services to human society, yet the climate impacts on blue capital have long been ignored. Incorporating the latest works on ocean science and economics, researchers...
141
Reposted by Bernie Bastien-Olvera
UBC Oceans @ubcoceans.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
RESEARCH: Accounting for ocean impacts nearly doubles the social cost of carbon. Co-authored by Dr. William Cheung @ubccoru.bsky.social @solvingfcb.org www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Accounting for ocean impacts nearly doubles the social cost of carbon - Nature Climate Change
Oceans provide essential ecosystem services to human society, yet the climate impacts on blue capital have long been ignored. Incorporating the latest works on ocean science and economics, researchers...
073
Reposted by Bernie Bastien-Olvera
Prof Ian Hall @ianhall.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
🌊 Accounting for ocean impacts nearly doubles the social cost of carbon By factoring in impacts on corals, mangroves, fisheries, & ports, the 2020 blue social cost of carbon jumps to $48/ton CO2-almost doubling traditional estimates. Protecting “blue capital” matters www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Accounting for ocean impacts nearly doubles the social cost of carbon - Nature Climate Change
Oceans provide essential ecosystem services to human society, yet the climate impacts on blue capital have long been ignored. Incorporating the latest works on ocean science and economics, researchers...
0106
Reposted by Bernie Bastien-Olvera
Cameron Thrash @jcamthrash.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
Accounting for ocean impacts nearly doubles the social cost of carbon www.nature.com/articles/s41... #jcampubs 🌊
nature.com
Accounting for ocean impacts nearly doubles the social cost of carbon - Nature Climate Change
Oceans provide essential ecosystem services to human society, yet the climate impacts on blue capital have long been ignored. Incorporating the latest works on ocean science and economics, researchers...
01715
Bernie Bastien-Olvera @bbastien.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
Huge thanks to an amazing team of brilliant coauthors: Aburto, Brander, Cheung, Emmerling, Free, Granella, Tavoni, Verschuur, and, of course, Kate Ricke, who believed in this project. @scrippsocean.bsky.social
010
Bernie Bastien-Olvera @bbastien.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
Most of these damages come from non-market values: nutrition, coastal protection, and the existence value of marine ecosystems — not just market losses.
111
Bernie Bastien-Olvera @bbastien.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
Our central estimate is $48 per ton of CO₂ (2020 USD) — which roughly doubles the SCC of the model without ocean damages. But here is a fuller comparison using other discount rates and baseline damage functions.
100
Bernie Bastien-Olvera @bbastien.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
We integrate ocean science + economics into a country-explicit IAM (RICE50+) to estimate the blue SCC — the welfare impacts of climate change on corals, mangroves, fisheries & mariculture, and ports.
130
Bernie Bastien-Olvera @bbastien.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
The Social Cost of Carbon for the Oceans is out today in Nature Climate Change. www.nature.com/articles/s41... Until now, ocean damages have been largely missing from SCC estimates used in climate policy.
nature.com
Accounting for ocean impacts nearly doubles the social cost of carbon - Nature Climate Change
Oceans provide essential ecosystem services to human society, yet the climate impacts on blue capital have long been ignored. Incorporating the latest works on ocean science and economics, researchers...
23316
Bernie Bastien-Olvera @bbastien.bsky.social · 08/01/2026
Solar radiation management looks most attractive precisely when governance is weakest — and that’s exactly when it’s most likely to fail. Check out our new paper in Environmental Research: Climate iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
iopscience.iop.org
Radware Bot Manager Captcha
To ensure we keep this website safe, please can you confirm you are a human by ticking the box below.
032
Reposted by Bernie Bastien-Olvera
Science X / Phys.org @sciencex.bsky.social · 03/09/2025
Projections indicate that rising ocean temperatures could offset anticipated gains in global mangrove restoration by 2100, resulting in significant ecosystem and economic losses, especially in Asia. doi.org/g92dsh
phys.org
Ocean warming projected to stall expected mangrove recovery
Increasing ocean temperatures will erase mangrove restoration gains expected to occur due to economic development and conservation, according to a new study from researchers at UC San Diego's Scripps Institution of Oceanography.
011
Reposted by Bernie Bastien-Olvera
Charles Thistlethwaite @charlest.bsky.social · 03/09/2025
About 150,000 hectares (580 sq. mi.) of mangrove ecosystems, vital for coastal protection, habitat creation, carbon storage, and water quality, will be lost by the end of the century due to #climatechange, with Asia bearing nearly two-thirds of these losses. oceanographicmagazine.com/news/warming...
oceanographicmagazine.com
Warming ocean will cost $28bn a year in mangrove losses alone - Oceanographic
Continued increase in ocean temperatures is projected to stall the advances made in mangrove recovery and restoration, a new study has warned.
141
Bernie Bastien-Olvera @bbastien.bsky.social · 03/09/2025
Figures looked weird, so sharing again!
000
Bernie Bastien-Olvera @bbastien.bsky.social · 03/09/2025
Press Release here: scripps.ucsd.edu/news/ocean-w...
scripps.ucsd.edu
Ocean Warming Projected to Stall Expected Mangrove Recovery
Leer en español aquiIncreasing ocean temperatures will erase mangrove restoration gains expected to occur due to economic development and conservation, according to a new study from researchers at UC ...
111
Bernie Bastien-Olvera @bbastien.bsky.social · 03/09/2025
By 2100, foregone benefits = 28B USD/year. But uneven: Asia 64% of losses Middle East and Africa 18% LatAm & Caribbean 12% OECD 3% Climate damages ecosystems broadly, but people don’t bear losses equally.
100
Bernie Bastien-Olvera @bbastien.bsky.social · 03/09/2025
Together: 🌍 Socioeconomics push toward recovery. 🔥 Warming oceans stall or reverse progress. Without climate change, mangroves could recover to global restoration targets. With warming, we lose ~150,000 ha by 2100.
100
Bernie Bastien-Olvera @bbastien.bsky.social · 03/09/2025
Temperature matters too. Warming helps colder sites expand. But beyond a threshold, heat damages dominate. We identified sea surface temp of the hottest month (SSTh) as the strongest signal. This Figure shows the marginal effect of both drivers
110
Bernie Bastien-Olvera @bbastien.bsky.social · 03/09/2025
We find a Kuznets-like pattern: at low GDP, mangroves are often lost (deforestation/land-use change). Beyond a development threshold, protection strengthens and mangrove cover recovers. Socioeconomic growth can support conservation—but only after that threshold is crossed.
100
Bernie Bastien-Olvera @bbastien.bsky.social · 03/09/2025
Mangroves protect coasts, store carbon & sustain fisheries. Using global data (1996–2020), we mapped mangrove extent & tracked how it responds to climate & socioeconomic drivers. Each point = 1° grid cell with mangroves.
100
Bernie Bastien-Olvera @bbastien.bsky.social · 03/09/2025
New paper out! We looked at how warming oceans & socioeconomic change shape the future of mangroves worldwide. @ioppublishing.bsky.social TLDR: Climate change could stall restoration efforts & deepen global inequalities. Paper: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
142
Reposted by Bernie Bastien-Olvera
Rodrigo Muñoz @rodrigo-munoz.bsky.social · 01/08/2025
I'm pleased to announce our newest paper published at Scientific Data, where we establish a framework for generating fast, custom SRM scenarios. This will allow us to develop probabilístic regional and global impact studies of geoengineering interventions. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
GeoMIP-Pattern – a pattern scaling dataset for efficient generation of custom geoengineering scenarios - Scientific Data
Scientific Data - GeoMIP-Pattern – a pattern scaling dataset for efficient generation of custom geoengineering scenarios
001
Bernie Bastien-Olvera @bbastien.bsky.social · 07/08/2025
After months held up in customs, @paulkelleher.net 's book finally made it to me. Now riding along with me on the Mexico City metro.
150
Reposted by Bernie Bastien-Olvera
Kate Marvel @drkatemarvel.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
Claim: "Water vapor is a greenhouse gas!" Reality: Yes, and there's more of it in a warmer atmosphere -"CO2 is plant food!" -pretty hard to eat when you're on fire -"Climate has changed before!" -We know, we told you that -"Scientists don't know everything!" - doesn't mean we know *nothing*
351230299
Bernie Bastien-Olvera @bbastien.bsky.social · 19/07/2025
New paper! Polycrisis isn’t a series of mistakes — it’s a tangled web of crises we navigate through increasingly rough terrain. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
020
Bernie Bastien-Olvera @bbastien.bsky.social · 15/07/2025
Polycrisis isn’t a series of mistakes — it’s a tangled web of crises we navigate through increasingly rough terrain. In this study, we compile a global database and analyze the co-occurrence of shocks, the building blocks of crisis, from 1970 to today. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
cambridge.org
Dynamics of the polycrisis: temporal trends, spatial distribution, and co-occurrences of national shocks (1970–2019) | Global Sustainability | Cambridge Core
Dynamics of the polycrisis: temporal trends, spatial distribution, and co-occurrences of national shocks (1970–2019) - Volume 8
010
Bernie Bastien-Olvera @bbastien.bsky.social · 14/07/2025
Very happy to be an AERE Scholar this year! I'm looking forward to contributing meaningfully to the field.
020
Reposted by Bernie Bastien-Olvera
Giorgio Dini @giorgiodini.bsky.social · 09/07/2025
Call for abstracts! The Beijer Young Scholars are convening a session at #AGU25: "Advances in Modeling and Governing Interacting Shocks in the Anthropocene". Submit by July 30! 🌍⚡ 📍New Orleans, Dec 15–19 🔗 agu.confex.com/agu/agu25/pr...
agu.confex.com
Advances in Modeling and Governing Interacting Shocks in the Anthropocene
Our collective well-being depends on interconnected socio-ecological systems. In the Anthropocene, these systems increasingly face unanticipated variability in key inputs (i.e., shocks), and nonlinear...
022
Bernie Bastien-Olvera @bbastien.bsky.social · 03/06/2025
What a view of the Sandia mountains last week in Albuquerque. So happy to join the @aereorg.bsky.social scholars cohort, an amazing group of supportive and brilliant people!
Outside deck of a brewery with a mountain at the back
040
Reposted by Bernie Bastien-Olvera
Copernicus ECMWF @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social · 30/05/2025
📈 Daily global temperature between 1940 to 2025 – @hausfath.bsky.social 2️⃣ bsky.app/profile/haus...
14824
Bernie Bastien-Olvera @bbastien.bsky.social · 28/05/2025
A weather system over Houston keeps delaying my connecting flight, but still hopeful I'll make it on time for the first session!
000
Bernie Bastien-Olvera @bbastien.bsky.social · 27/05/2025
What an amazing week at the Beijer Institute, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences! Sharing ideas, methods and good moments with this talented group of scholars studying socioecological impacts.
031
Reposted by Bernie Bastien-Olvera
R. Daniel (Danny) Bressler @rdbressler.bsky.social · 06/12/2024
🚨"Heat disproportionally kills young people: Evidence from Wet-Bulb Temperature Exposure" My new paper co-lead with @ajsw.info is out today! Using 20 years of nationwide mortality microdata + wet-bulb temperature, we uncovered fascinating new findings. Thread 👇 www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
science.org
Heat disproportionately kills young people: Evidence from wet-bulb temperature in Mexico
Analysis of temperature exposure and microdata finds the majority of heat-related deaths are among people under 35 years old.
410248
Bernie Bastien-Olvera @bbastien.bsky.social · 20/03/2025
Sure thing! Here's a website where activists and academics are compiling info that has proved useful to inform about potential impacts, but not peer reviewed research that I'm aware of. whalesorgas.org
whalesorgas.org
Whales or Gas
Mexican whales are being threatened. They want to bring huge ships through the Gulf of California to transport millions of tons of methane gas to Asia.
010
Reposted by Bernie Bastien-Olvera
Naomi Klein @naomiaklein.bsky.social · 19/03/2025
Fossil fuel companies should be forced to pay the public trillions in damages for the costs of their planetary arson. Instead they are trying to shut down one of the most important and storied environmental groups in the world. It's shameless - and it's not over. www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
theguardian.com
Greenpeace must pay hundreds of millions over Dakota pipeline protests, says jury
Non-profit said in statement lawsuits like this aimed at ‘destroying the right to peaceful protest’
332106903
Bernie Bastien-Olvera @bbastien.bsky.social · 19/03/2025
Very cool episode on the environmental effects of increased US exports of natural gas @danielraimi.bsky.social ! I would add the effect of the transportation itself. LNG tankers shipping US gas in the Gulf of California could severely disrupt marine ecosystems. open.spotify.com/episode/0W47...
open.spotify.com
Economic and Environmental Effects of Natural Gas Exports, with Brian Prest
Resources Radio · Episode
110
Reposted by Bernie Bastien-Olvera
AGU (American Geophysical Union) @agu.org · 05/03/2025
AGU has joined a lawsuit challenging the firing of probationary employees at federal agencies. These actions weaken science, harm public health & the environment, and threaten national security. 🧵 #StandWithScience
10619171
Bernie Bastien-Olvera @bbastien.bsky.social · 10/03/2025
Kicking off AGU council meeting with an inspiring quote and new horizons for my taste buds
020
Bernie Bastien-Olvera @bbastien.bsky.social · 20/02/2025
Hi Emily, I would like to be added to the feed please. Here's my Scholar profile, thanks!! scholar.google.com.mx/citations?us...
100
Bernie Bastien-Olvera @bbastien.bsky.social · 20/02/2025
Hey David, can you add me to the list? Thanks for creating it!
000