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‘Unknown territory’: How can prediction markets affect drug trials?
Prediction marketplaces are taking their first steps into the pharmaceutical field — a move that some experts say may threaten the integrity of clinical trials.
Prediction markets are platforms where users buy and sell shares on the future outcomes of events across a variety of subjects, like entertainment, sports, politics and technology.
According to Matthew Vogel, MBA, a professor of health policy at Brown University, and colleagues, online prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are introducing betting on drug development outcomes such as “whether POLARIS-AD, a phase 3 trial of the