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The Overround @theoverround.bsky.social · 17h

You cannot control whether you are right. You can control what you pay to find out. One of those is free to improve today.

The Overround: a card reading one of our standing lines. See theoverround.com.

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The Overround @theoverround.bsky.social · 21h

The worst price on Kalshi right now: Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term? 9 outcomes. Backing all of them costs $1.72 to win $1. 72 cents of margin. That is not a market, that is a toll booth. theoverround.com/m/KXSCOTUSRESIGN-29

The book on "Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?" sums to 172 percent across 9 outcomes.

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The Overround @theoverround.bsky.social · 15/10/2026

Same question, two houses. Trading "How many House seats will Democrats win in Virginia?" costs 9.6 points at Kalshi and 7.1 at Polymarket. Nobody publishes this, so nobody shops on it. theoverround.com/m/KXVAHOUSEDEM-26N…

The overround on "How many House seats will Democrats win in Virginia?": Kalshi 109.6 percent, Polymarket 107.1 percent.

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The Overround @theoverround.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

Prediction markets are a genuinely better way to aggregate belief. They are also a business, and businesses charge. Both things are true.

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The Overround @theoverround.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

Equally likely today, at 51% each: Oscar Winner: Best Picture (The Odyssey) Maine Senate margin of victory (Jackson, 1+ pts) We do not make these up. We just write them down. theoverround.com/equally-likely

"Oscar Winner: Best Picture" and "Maine Senate margin of victory" are both priced at 51 percent.

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The Overround @theoverround.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

Texas Senate margin of victory The market moved -5 points on Ken Paxton, 3+ pts today, to 21¢. theoverround.com

Ken Paxton, 3+ pts at 21 cents on "Texas Senate margin of victory", moved -5 points today.

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The Overround @theoverround.bsky.social · 12/10/2026

This week: Kalshi wants 0.4% to trade "2028 Democratic presidential nominee" and 36% to trade "Oscar Winner: Best Picture". Same exchange, same screen. The tight books are the ones being watched. theoverround.com/the-week

The Week in Margins: the spread between the cheapest and dearest book on the board is 35.6 points.

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The Overround @theoverround.bsky.social · 12/10/2026

Add up what it costs to back every outcome on "When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO?" and you get 167%. The 67 points above 100 are not a price. They are the cover charge. theoverround.com/m/KXIPOOPENAI

The book on "When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO?" sums to 167 percent across 7 outcomes.

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The Overround @theoverround.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

Same question, two houses. Trading "Next French presidential election winner?" costs 10.4 points at Kalshi and 2.3 at Polymarket. Nobody publishes this, so nobody shops on it. theoverround.com/m/KXFRENCHPRES-27

The overround on "Next French presidential election winner?": Kalshi 110.4 percent, Polymarket 102.3 percent.

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The Overround @theoverround.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

Equally likely today, at 52.5% each: Oscar Winner: Best Picture (The Odyssey) When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO? (Before Jun 1, 2027) We do not make these up. We just write them down. theoverround.com/equally-likely

"Oscar Winner: Best Picture" and "When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO?" are both priced at 52.5 percent.

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The Overround @theoverround.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Two venues, the same question, seven points between them on the house's cut alone. Efficiency is doing something, but it is not doing that.

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The Overround @theoverround.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

James Talarico, 5+ pts is now 22.5¢ to be the answer to "Texas Senate margin of victory" Moved -7.5 points, on $67k of open interest. theoverround.com

James Talarico, 5+ pts at 22.5 cents on "Texas Senate margin of victory", moved -7.5 points today.

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The Overround @theoverround.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Add up what it costs to back every outcome on "Next James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond" and you get 175%. The 75 points above 100 are not a price. They are the cover charge. theoverround.com/m/KXBOND-30

The book on "Next James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond" sums to 175 percent across 19 outcomes.

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The Overround @theoverround.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Every comparison site on the internet takes money to reorder its list. We take the money and refuse the reorder. That refusal is the entire product.

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The Overround @theoverround.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

"Next Senate Democratic Leader?" is a 120.7% book on Kalshi. Every point over 100 is the house's, taken from whoever trades, on both sides. theoverround.com/m/KXSENATEDEMLEAD-…

The overround on "Next Senate Democratic Leader?": Kalshi 120.7 percent.

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The Overround @theoverround.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Two things the market prices identically today, both at 15.8%: Will Alberta vote to secede from Canada? China overtakes USA’s economy by 2030? One of those is mispriced. Reply with which one and why. theoverround.com/equally-likely

"Will Alberta vote to secede from Canada?" and "China overtakes USA’s economy by 2030?" are both priced at 15.8 percent.

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The Overround @theoverround.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

This week: Kalshi wants 0.2% to trade "2028 Democratic presidential nominee" and 38% to trade "Oscar Winner: Best Picture". Same exchange, same screen. The tight books are the ones being watched. theoverround.com/the-week

The Week in Margins: the spread between the cheapest and dearest book on the board is 37.8 points.

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The Overround @theoverround.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Priced in today: Sayed, 5+ pts at 37¢ on "Michigan Senate margin of victory" That is +3 points from yesterday. theoverround.com

Sayed, 5+ pts at 37 cents on "Michigan Senate margin of victory", moved 3 points today.

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The Overround @theoverround.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Add up what it costs to back every outcome on "Maine Senate margin of victory" and you get 168.2%. The 68.2 points above 100 are not a price. They are the cover charge. theoverround.com/m/KXMIDTERMMOV-MES…

The book on "Maine Senate margin of victory" sums to 168.2 percent across 7 outcomes.

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The Overround @theoverround.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Equally likely today, at 63.3% each: When will Tesla and SpaceX merge? (Before 2028) What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030? (Oil) We do not make these up. We just write them down. theoverround.com/equally-likely

"When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?" and "What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?" are both priced at 63.3 percent.

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The Overround @theoverround.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

The cut is disclosed, technically, in the sense that it is derivable from prices you would have to add up yourself. Nobody adds them up. We did.

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The Overround @theoverround.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Equally likely today, at 49% each: Oscar Winner: Best Picture (The Odyssey) Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election? (Gadi Eizenkot) We do not make these up. We just write them down. theoverround.com/equally-likely

"Oscar Winner: Best Picture" and "Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?" are both priced at 49 percent.

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The Overround @theoverround.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Biggest politics market open today is "2028 Democratic presidential nominee" Jon Ossoff leads at 16.5¢. theoverround.com

Jon Ossoff leads at 16.5 cents on "2028 Democratic presidential nominee".

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The Overround @theoverround.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Laying off a position at a second venue feels like risk management. You just paid two houses to hold both ends of the same opinion.

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The Overround @theoverround.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

The worst price on Kalshi right now: Next James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond 20 outcomes. Backing all of them costs $1.73 to win $1. 73 cents of margin. That is not a market, that is a toll booth. theoverround.com/m/KXBOND-30

The book on "Next James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond" sums to 173 percent across 20 outcomes.

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The Overround @theoverround.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Backing every outcome on "Next Senate Democratic Leader?" costs 117.9¢ on the dollar at Kalshi. A fair book is 100. The extra 17.9 is the house's cut, and you pay it whichever side you take. theoverround.com/m/KXSENATEDEMLEAD-…

The overround on "Next Senate Democratic Leader?": Kalshi 117.9 percent.

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The Overround @theoverround.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

This week: Kalshi wants 0% to trade "Oscar winner: Best Actress" and 36% to trade "Oscar Winner: Best Picture". Same exchange, same screen. The tight books are the ones being watched. theoverround.com/the-week

The Week in Margins: the spread between the cheapest and dearest book on the board is 36 points.

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The Overround @theoverround.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Equally likely today, at 62.3% each: What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030? (Oil) Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX? We do not make these up. We just write them down. theoverround.com/equally-likely

"What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?" and "Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?" are both priced at 62.3 percent.

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The Overround @theoverround.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

The Black Ball is now 28.5¢ to be the answer to "Oscar Winner: Best Picture" Moved +6.5 points, on $332k of open interest. theoverround.com

The Black Ball at 28.5 cents on "Oscar Winner: Best Picture", moved 6.5 points today.

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The Overround @theoverround.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

How high will average weekly Hormuz traffic get in 2026? 10 runners, and the prices add up to 158%. A fair book adds up to 100. So 58 cents of every dollar in there is the house's, whoever wins. Kalshi does not print this number… theoverround.com/m/KXHORMUZAVG-27JA…

The book on "How high will average weekly Hormuz traffic get in 2026?" sums to 158 percent across 10 outcomes.

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The Overround @theoverround.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Research is the fun part, which is why everyone does it and almost nobody spends the thirty seconds afterwards checking who is cheapest.

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The Overround @theoverround.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Same question, two houses. Trading "Next French presidential election winner?" costs 4.6 points at Kalshi and 3.9 at Polymarket. Nobody publishes this, so nobody shops on it. theoverround.com/m/KXFRENCHPRES-27

The overround on "Next French presidential election winner?": Kalshi 104.6 percent, Polymarket 103.9 percent.

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The Overround @theoverround.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Will Trump resign during his term?: 24% Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030?: 24% Nobody decided these were equally likely. Thousands of people betting on completely separate questions arrived here on their own. theoverround.com/equally-likely

"Will Trump resign during his term?" and "Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030?" are both priced at 24 percent.

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The Overround @theoverround.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Named after the number nobody prints. A fair book sums to 100. Ours is the only site that shows you what each house actually sums to.

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The Overround @theoverround.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Priced in today: James Talarico and Troy Jackson at 55¢ on "Maine-Texas Senate Combo" That is +7 points from yesterday. theoverround.com

James Talarico and Troy Jackson at 55 cents on "Maine-Texas Senate Combo", moved 7 points today.

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The Overround @theoverround.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

The worst price on Kalshi right now: How high will average weekly Hormuz traffic get in 2026? 10 outcomes. Backing all of them costs $1.59 to win $1. 59 cents of margin. That is not a market, that is a toll booth. theoverround.com/m/KXHORMUZAVG-27JA…

The book on "How high will average weekly Hormuz traffic get in 2026?" sums to 159 percent across 10 outcomes.

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The Overround @theoverround.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

This week: Kalshi wants 0.4% to trade "2028 Democratic presidential nominee" and 40% to trade "Oscar Winner: Best Picture". Same exchange, same screen. The tight books are the ones being watched. theoverround.com/the-week

The Week in Margins: the spread between the cheapest and dearest book on the board is 39.6 points.

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The Overround @theoverround.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Backing every outcome on "Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?" costs 120.4¢ on the dollar at Kalshi. A fair book is 100. The extra 20.4 is the house's cut, and you pay it whichever side you take. theoverround.com/m/KXNEXTPRESSEC-29…

The overround on "Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?": Kalshi 120.4 percent.

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The Overround @theoverround.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Two things the market prices identically today, both at 14.5%: Will Alberta vote to secede from Canada? China overtakes USA’s economy by 2030? One of those is mispriced. Reply with which one and why. theoverround.com/equally-likely

"Will Alberta vote to secede from Canada?" and "China overtakes USA’s economy by 2030?" are both priced at 14.5 percent.

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The Overround @theoverround.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? The market moved -43.5 points on Before Nov 1, 2026 today, to 8.5¢. theoverround.com

Before Nov 1, 2026 at 8.5 cents on "When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?", moved -43.5 points today.

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The Overround @theoverround.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Odds are a forecast. The markup is a charge. Only one of them is on your statement at the end of the month.

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The Overround @theoverround.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Add up what it costs to back every outcome on "Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?" and you get 171%. The 71 points above 100 are not a price. They are the cover charge. theoverround.com/m/KXSCOTUSRESIGN-29

The book on "Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?" sums to 171 percent across 9 outcomes.

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The Overround @theoverround.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

The house's cut on "Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?": Kalshi 18 points, Polymarket 0.6. Same event, same payout, different toll. theoverround.com/m/KXISRAELPM-26OCT…

The overround on "Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?": Kalshi 118 percent, Polymarket 100.6 percent.

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The Overround @theoverround.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Everyone posts the entry. Nobody posts the fee. We publish it on every market we cover, whether it flatters the venue or not.

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The Overround @theoverround.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Two things the market prices identically today, both at 53%: Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term? (Samuel Alito) Oscar Winner: Best Picture (The Odyssey) One of those is mispriced. Reply with which one and… theoverround.com/equally-likely

"Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?" and "Oscar Winner: Best Picture" are both priced at 53 percent.

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The Overround @theoverround.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Callum Turner is now 29.5¢ to be the answer to "Next James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond" Moved -5.5 points, on $275k of open interest. theoverround.com

Callum Turner at 29.5 cents on "Next James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond", moved -5.5 points today.

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The Overround @theoverround.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

This week: Kalshi wants 0.4% to trade "2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?" and 36% to trade "Oscar Winner: Best Picture". Same exchange, same screen. The tight books are the ones being watched. theoverround.com/the-week

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The Overround @theoverround.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

Equally likely today, at 59.3% each: When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO? (Before Jun 1, 2027) Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX? We do not make these up. We just write them down. theoverround.com/equally-likely

"When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO?" and "Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?" are both priced at 59.3 percent.

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The Overround @theoverround.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

Kalshi charges 10.2 points to trade "Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?" That is the overround: what it costs to back every outcome, minus the dollar one of them pays. theoverround.com/m/KXNEXTPRESSEC-29…

The overround on "Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?": Kalshi 110.2 percent.

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The Overround @theoverround.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

The market says these are the same bet. Recession in 2027? Will Trump resign during his term? Both 22%. Pick the one you think is wrong. theoverround.com/equally-likely

"Recession in 2027?" and "Will Trump resign during his term?" are both priced at 22 percent.

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