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Andrew Stokes

@astokespop.bsky.social
5.5K followers 1.3K following 48 posts

Associate Professor at Boston University; Population Health, Demography, Sociology

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Reposted by Andrew Stokes
Population Aging Research Center @pennaging.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
💥 The U.S. Mortality Crisis as a Preston Curve Reversal By Ritikaa Khanna @rourkeobrien.bsky.social @astokespop.bsky.social @atheendar.bsky.social @wrigleyfield.bsky.social www.nber.org/papers/w35470 Economic growth in the 2010s no longer translated into broad gains in life expectancy
nber.org
The U.S. Mortality Crisis as a Preston Curve Reversal
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, and business professionals.
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Reposted by Andrew Stokes
Elizabeth Wrigley-Field @wrigleyfield.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
New working paper from Ritikaa Khanna, @rourkeobrien.bsky.social, @astokespop.bsky.social, @atheendar.bsky.social, & me We apply a new lens to the great (non-Covid) debate of US mortality studies: What's up w the 2010s? It emphasizes that US longevity worsened against a background of increasing $$
nber.org
The U.S. Mortality Crisis as a Preston Curve Reversal
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
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Andrew Stokes @astokespop.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
I'm grateful for the team that made this study happen, including lead author Jacob Bor and co-authors Rafeya Raquib, David Himmelstein, and Steffie Woolhandler. Thanks also to David Rehkopf for his thoughtful invited commentary on the paper. jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
jamanetwork.com
In Search of Lost Time—Finding 314 Million Missing Years
There was a time, up until approximately 1980, when the US had a similar life expectancy to other high-income nations,1 but our fall from that place has been rapid, and we now rank 46th in the world.2...
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Andrew Stokes @astokespop.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
The US has similar medical technology to other wealthy nations but persistently worse outcomes. The gap could be substantially reduced by adopting the health, economic, and social policies of our peers. www.bu.edu/articles/202...
bu.edu
Why Does the US Have Higher Death Rates than Other Wealthy Nations?
New Boston University study tracks America’s avoidable “excess deaths” and pinpoints major causes
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Andrew Stokes @astokespop.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
We conducted a "population autopsy" to ask what's behind the gap. Circulatory and metabolic disease together account for 52% of excess US deaths in 2022. Drug poisonings, alcohol, and suicide explain 24% of the increase since 1999, and most of the rise among adults under 45.
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Andrew Stokes @astokespop.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
New paper out in @jamanetworkopen.com In 2022, there were 905,159 more deaths in the US than we'd expect if Americans had death rates of other high-income countries. That difference has nearly tripled since 1999. COVID played a role but gap was widening well before 2020. tinyurl.com/y4ecvfrs
tinyurl.com
Causes of Excess Deaths in the US Compared With Other High-Income Countries
This cross-sectional study examines excess mortality in the US compared with other high-income countries from 1999 to 2022 and investigates causes of death accounting for the disparity.
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Reposted by Andrew Stokes
Atheendar Venkataramani @atheendar.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
This paper is incredible. The question, the data, the methods. Congrats to @jacob-bor.bsky.social and team! Can't wait to teach it in the methods class next year!
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Reposted by Andrew Stokes
Elizabeth Wrigley-Field @wrigleyfield.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
A great write-up on brand-new research I was involved in. We used a really different approach from the ones that we & many others have used previously to estimate how many Covid deaths there *really* were--almost 20% more than known. Our results broadly accord w others but add new demographic detail
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Reposted by Andrew Stokes
Mike Stobbe @mikestobbe.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
The COVID-19 pandemic’s early death toll was much higher than the official U.S. count, according to a new study that spotlights dramatic disparities in the uncounted deaths. apnews.com/article/covi...
apnews.com
More than 150,000 uncounted COVID-19 deaths occurred early in the pandemic, a study finds
A new study says the early U.S. COVID-19 death toll is much higher than official counts, and that there were disparities in which deaths were missing from those tallies.
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Reposted by Andrew Stokes
Eric Topol @erictopol.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
19% more deaths from Covid in the US than counted thru 2021 www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
science.org
Applying machine learning to identify unrecognized COVID-19 deaths recorded as other causes of death in the United States
A machine learning approach suggests that COVID-19 deaths were undercounted unevenly across sociodemographic groups in 2020–2021.
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Andrew Stokes @astokespop.bsky.social · 22/09/2025
Preston’s death was first labeled an overdose. The autopsy found no drugs. Likely an asthma attack amid LA’s wildfires. Our recent analysis suggests 440 excess deaths—far beyond the official 31. We’re undercounting climate’s toll. @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
jamanetwork.com
Excess Deaths Attributable to the Los Angeles Wildfires From January 5 to February 1, 2025
This study aims to estimate the number of excess deaths attributable to the Los Angeles wildfires using an interrupted time series design.
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Reposted by Andrew Stokes
Jenn Dowd @drjenndowd.bsky.social · 10/09/2025
I also recommend this great piece in the @us.theconversation.com by @wrigleyfield.bsky.social @astokespop.bsky.social & colleagues walking through some of their great work to counter this myth of "overcounting" coming out of previous news cycle. theconversation.com/covid-19-dea...
theconversation.com
COVID-19 deaths in the US continue to be undercounted, research shows, despite claims of ‘overcounts’
Taking into consideration the number of excess deaths caused by COVID-19 compared with pre-pandemic years is critical to getting an accurate accounting of the pandemic’s real toll.
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Reposted by Andrew Stokes
Jenn Dowd @drjenndowd.bsky.social · 09/09/2025
Persistent minimizing of the COVID death toll hits me especially hard in the #demography feels. To be clear: ➡️ Over one million Americans died of COVID-19. ➡️ Official COVID deaths were likely undercounted, not overcounted. jenndowd.substack.com/p/how-many-p...
jenndowd.substack.com
How many people died of COVID?
We likely undercounted, not overcounted COVID deaths
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Reposted by Andrew Stokes
Elizabeth Wrigley-Field @wrigleyfield.bsky.social · 20/08/2025
As a mortality researcher, I haven’t generally paid a lot of attention to people my own age (elder Millennial here). That’s, unfortunately, changing. (With @astokespop.bsky.social and Jacob Bor)
slate.com
Millennials Are Dying at an Alarming Rate. We Have a Few Ideas as to Why.
America is not a good place to be an early adult.
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Reposted by Andrew Stokes
Eugenio Paglino @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social · 11/08/2025
New study 🚨 out in @jama.com! We find that California wildfires🔥in January may have contributed 440 excess deaths in Los Angeles County. This estimate significantly exceeds the 30 direct fatalities linked to these events jamanetwork.com/journals/jam... @pophel.bsky.social @helsinki.fi
jamanetwork.com
Excess Deaths Attributable to the Los Angeles Wildfires From January 5 to February 1, 2025
This study aims to estimate the number of excess deaths attributable to the Los Angeles wildfires using an interrupted time series design.
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Reposted by Andrew Stokes
Richard M. Carpiano, PhD, MPH @rmcarpiano.medsky.social · 07/08/2025
Study: 30 direct fatalities from the L.A. wildfires, but 440 deaths from January 5 to February 1, 2025 attributable to the wildfires--likely reflecting "a combination of factors, including increased exposure to poor air quality and health care delays and interruptions..." 🛟 😷 health policy
jamanetwork.com
Excess Deaths Attributable to the Los Angeles Wildfires From January 5 to February 1, 2025
This study aims to estimate the number of excess deaths attributable to the Los Angeles wildfires using an interrupted time series design.
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Reposted by Andrew Stokes
JAMA @jama.com · 06/08/2025
An estimated 440 excess deaths were attributed to the January 2025 wildfires in Los Angeles County, underscoring indirect health effects and the need for improved mortality tracking. ja.ma/4oFM3af #MedSky
Excess Deaths Attributable to the Los Angeles
Wildfires From January 5 to February 1, 2025
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Reposted by Andrew Stokes
Population Aging Research Center @pennaging.bsky.social · 23/06/2025
NEW PAPER: "Evolution of the US nonmetropolitan mortality disadvantage by sex, state, and year, 1999‐2019" in @jruralhealth.bsky.social w/Associates Irma Elo & Samuel Preston @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social K Hempstead @astokespop.bsky.social doi.org/10.1111/jrh.... pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC...
doi.org
Evolution of the US nonmetropolitan mortality disadvantage by sex, state, and year, 1999‐2019
Purpose To examine disparities in nonmetropolitan and metropolitan mortality by state and sex from 1999 to 2019. Methods We calculate age-standardized mortality rates for nonmetropolitan and metro...
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Andrew Stokes @astokespop.bsky.social · 17/06/2025
This work was a team effort—grateful to lead author @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social and coauthor @wrigleyfield.bsky.social Coverage via @busph.bsky.social www.bu.edu/sph/news/art...
bu.edu
Cardiovascular Disease and Diabetes Are Driving the Increase in US Excess Mortality—and Adults Without College Degrees Are Bearing Most of the Burden
About 525,000 more deaths occurred among US adults in 2023 than would be expected had pre-2010 mortality trends continued. More than 90 percent of these deaths occurred among individuals without a bac...
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Andrew Stokes @astokespop.bsky.social · 17/06/2025
Education structures exposure to risk. Adults without a BA are more likely to work unstable jobs, live in areas without access to healthy food, and face financial and logistical barriers to medical care. These conditions increase the risk of chronic disease and premature death.
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Andrew Stokes @astokespop.bsky.social · 17/06/2025
Adults without a BA accounted for over 260,000 excess deaths from circulatory diseases in 2023. Diabetes was another key contributor. Among men without a BA, nearly 1 in 3 excess deaths were from drug poisonings or other external causes.
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Andrew Stokes @astokespop.bsky.social · 17/06/2025
Among adults without a BA, mortality in 2023 was 26% higher than expected. For college graduates, it was 8% higher. This divergence began before the pandemic, widened sharply during it, and persisted even after COVID deaths declined
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Andrew Stokes @astokespop.bsky.social · 17/06/2025
The U.S. once saw steady declines in mortality—but progress stalled around 2010. New research: In 2023 alone, there were 525,505 more deaths than expected had pre-2010 trends continued. 91% were among adults without a BA degree. Most were due to CVD and diabetes. jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
jamanetwork.com
Diverging Mortality Trends by Educational Attainment in the US
This cross-sectional study examines trends in US mortality rates by sex and educational attainment before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Maria Glymour @mariaglymour.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
Thanks to The Oklahoman (www.oklahoman.com) for running my opinions on the new budget and impacts on Alzheimer's research (bit.ly/4mZXrg7) and public health progress for all of us. #PublicHealth #EndAlzheimers #Epidemiology #ScienceHomecoming
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Elizabeth Wrigley-Field @wrigleyfield.bsky.social · 29/05/2025
For 40 years, Americans have lived shorter lives than people in other rich countries. For 10 years, that's been rapidly getting worse. New research: in 2022-2023, there were 1.5 million "missing Americans," who died--but wouldn't have, if America didn't have such uniquely high death rates.
jamanetwork.com
Excess US Deaths Before, During, and After the COVID-19 Pandemic
This cohort study examines trends in excess deaths in the US before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Andrew Stokes @astokespop.bsky.social · 27/05/2025
Here we have calculated the number of excess deaths attributable to the US mortality disadvantage. This is based on estimates of the number of US deaths that would have been expected each year had the US population experienced the age-specific mortality rates of other wealthy nations.
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Andrew Stokes @astokespop.bsky.social · 27/05/2025
This work was a team effort—grateful to lead author Jacob Bor and coauthors Rafeya Raquib, Elizabeth Wrigley-Field, Steffie Woolhandler & David Himmelstein. (5/5) Coverage via @busph.bsky.social www.bu.edu/sph/news/art... #MissingAmericans #ExcessDeaths #HealthPolicy @jama.com
bu.edu
US Excess Deaths Continued to Rise Even After the COVID-19 Pandemic
There were over 1.5 million “missing Americans” in 2022 and 2023—deaths that would have been averted if US mortality rates matched those of peer countries. Excess US deaths have been increasing for de...
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Andrew Stokes @astokespop.bsky.social · 27/05/2025
The US mortality crisis is decades in the making—shaped by policies that fostered car-centric cities, fragmented health care, weak safety nets, and poor nutrition. These systemic failures cost lives every day—and reversing course will require bold, structural change. (4/5)
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Andrew Stokes @astokespop.bsky.social · 27/05/2025
In 2023, 46% of all US deaths under age 65 were avoidable. That’s nearly 1 in 2 deaths in working-age adults—driven by overdoses, gun violence, car crashes, and chronic disease, rooted in policy failures and structural neglect. (3/5)
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Andrew Stokes @astokespop.bsky.social · 27/05/2025
Since 1980, the US has accumulated nearly 15 million “missing Americans”—lives lost because our death rates remain far higher than in other wealthy nations. This crisis began long before COVID and shows no sign of slowing. (2/5)
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Andrew Stokes @astokespop.bsky.social · 27/05/2025
New study with @jacob-bor.bsky.social @wrigleyfield.bsky.social & colleagues estimates that US saw 705,331 excess deaths in 2023—a number in line w/ rising pre-pandemic trend. Over 1.5 million deaths could’ve been averted in 2022–23 if US mortality matched peer nations. 🧵 (1/5) tinyurl.com/569pr9ty
tinyurl.com
Excess US Deaths Before, During, and After the COVID-19 Pandemic
This cohort study examines trends in excess deaths in the US before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Eric Topol @erictopol.bsky.social · 23/05/2025
Excess deaths in the US vs other high-income countries. Coming down relative to prior US data but still the outlier jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
jamanetwork.com
Excess US Deaths Before, During, and After the COVID-19 Pandemic
This cohort study examines trends in excess deaths in the US before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Reposted by Andrew Stokes
Elizabeth Wrigley-Field @wrigleyfield.bsky.social · 30/04/2025
The biggest project I've worked on for the last chunk of years was just published. It asks, how big are US Black-white lifespan differences? This might seem like a narrow question. I hope to convince you by the end that there are answers you didn't anticipate. And I hope some of them will move you.
annualreviews.org
Three Ways of Looking at Black–White Mortality Differences in the United States | Annual Reviews
Everyone agrees that US Black deaths happen earlier than white deaths on average, but it is surprisingly challenging to find the best ways to summarize, quantify, and compare this gap. This review arg...
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Atheendar Venkataramani @atheendar.bsky.social · 05/03/2025
A neat paper by @wrigleyfield.bsky.social @astokespop.bsky.social and team looks into this post 2010 period, showing that death rates from many different conditions increased relative to previous trends. More evidence of generalized #populationhealth stressors. jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
jamanetwork.com
Mortality Trends Among Early Adults in the United States, 1999-2023
This cross-sectional study examines trends in mortality rates among adults aged 25 to 44 years across the pre–COVID-19 pandemic, pandemic, and postpandemic periods.
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Sander Wagner @sanderwagner.bsky.social · 03/03/2025
Excess mortality rates of U.S. Americans age 25-44 (relative to 1999-2010 baseline) by cause of death from @wrigleyfield.bsky.social and co-authors from new article here: jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
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Andrew Stokes @astokespop.bsky.social · 11/02/2025
Thank you for writing on this study. We look forward to your insights.
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Jenn Dowd @drjenndowd.bsky.social · 06/02/2025
1/ How should public health think about new GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic? Do pharmaceutical solutions undermine public health prevention efforts? In @milbankfund.bsky.social, Neil Mehta & I consider what new anti-obesity drugs might mean for population health. 🔗 www.milbank.org/quarterly/op...
milbank.org
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Andrew Stokes @astokespop.bsky.social · 03/02/2025
A huge thanks to lead author @wrigleyfield.bsky.social and study collaborators Rafeya Raquib, Kaitlyn Berry, and Keeley J. Morris for a great collaboration. (6/6) @minnpop.bsky.social @busph.bsky.social @andrewsthurston.bsky.social @buciss.bsky.social
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Andrew Stokes @astokespop.bsky.social · 03/02/2025
Addressing this crisis requires comprehensive public health action, including: ✅ Expanding mental health and substance use treatment ✅ Improving road safety policies ✅ Strengthening efforts to prevent chronic diseases ✅ Investing in social and economic policies that support health. (5/6)
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Andrew Stokes @astokespop.bsky.social · 03/02/2025
📉 Why does this matter? Even as COVID-19 cases decline, excess mortality remains at crisis levels. Our findings suggest that the pandemic exacerbated pre-existing health risks—but the drivers of this crisis were in motion long before 2020. (4/6)
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Andrew Stokes @astokespop.bsky.social · 03/02/2025
What’s driving excess deaths? While drug overdoses remain a leading cause (31.8%), other causes are also contributing, including transport-related deaths (14.1%), and alcohol-related deaths (8.5%). We also see a concerning rise in deaths linked to cardiovascular and metabolic conditions. (3/6)
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Andrew Stokes @astokespop.bsky.social · 03/02/2025
📊 Key finding: In 2023, mortality in this age group was 70% higher than expected based on pre-2011 trends. That translates to over 71,000 excess deaths—far beyond pre-pandemic levels. These numbers underscore a persistent and growing public health crisis. (2/6)
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Andrew Stokes @astokespop.bsky.social · 03/02/2025
New study with @wrigleyfield.bsky.social & colleagues finds that excess deaths among young U.S. adults have surged since 2011, accelerating during the pandemic and remaining high in 2023. Our research shows that this crisis extends far beyond drug overdoses. 🧵 (1/6) jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
jamanetwork.com
Mortality Trends Among Early Adults in the United States, 1999-2023
This cross-sectional study examines trends in mortality rates among adults aged 25 to 44 years across the pre–COVID-19 pandemic, pandemic, and postpandemic periods.
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Eric Topol @erictopol.bsky.social · 31/01/2025
U.S. Mortality trends in the young, ages 25-44 years jamanetwork.com/journals/jam... Drug overdoses are the leading cause of excess mortality. There were substantial numbers of Covid fatalities in this age group during the peak pandemic
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Elizabeth Wrigley-Field @wrigleyfield.bsky.social · 31/01/2025
New today: Death rates for Americans aged 25-44 have been rising since 2010. Their mortality is now 70% higher than it would be had pre-2011 mortality declines continued. w Rafeya Raquib, Katie Berry, Keeley Morris, & @astokespop.bsky.social 1/ jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
Bar chart showing excess mortality of Americans aged 25-44, in 2011-2023, broken into causes of death. The chart shows a big growth over time, especially from drug deaths, "other natural causes," and transport-related deaths (car collisions), as well as from Covid-19 in 2021.Line graph showing the relative (proportional) excess mortality of Americans aged 25-44, in 2011-2023, broken into causes of death. The graph shows big growth in "other natural causes," transport deaths (car collisions), alcohol-related deaths, and homicide.
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Jennifer Weuve @epidancer.bsky.social · 07/01/2025
#MELODEM is accepting applications--by 1/27/25--to participate in this year's Annual In-Person Meeting! The meeting features: Jun 23-25: presentations w extensive discussion Jun 25-27: hands-on data workshop, involving a subset of participants See deets & apply: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...
docs.google.com
Application for 2025 Annual MELODEM Meeting
We are delighted to announce that we are accepting applications to participate in MELODEM's Annual In-Person Meeting which will be held in St. James Hotel in Red Wing, MN from Monday, June 23rd to Fri...
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Eugenio Paglino @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
The first report from our collaboration with the Society of Actuaries (SOA) is now out! @astokespop.bsky.social We look at cause-specific excess mortality in the US and reflect on the most likely explanations for the gap between excess and COVID-19 mortality. www.soa.org/resources/re...
soa.org
Cause-Specific Excess Mortality During the COVID-19 Pandemic
This report presents initial findings from a project investigating the direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19 in the post-acute phase of the pandemic.
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MIDAS Network @midas-network.bsky.social · 12/12/2024
The Department of Demography at the University of California, Berkeley, invites applications for a Postdoctoral Scholar position in the research group of Prof. Ayesha Mahmud. For more info, visit: aprecruit.berkeley.edu/JPF04716
aprecruit.berkeley.edu
Postdoctoral Scholar Employee - Demography
University of California, Berkeley is hiring. Apply now!
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