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Opinion Haver @asinmarx.bsky.social · 2h

Republicans got like 15% more votes for the house in 2018, their worst midterm in living memory, than they did in 2014, their best in living memory

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Opinion Haver @asinmarx.bsky.social · 2h

Genuinely yes. 2018 was the first high turnout midterm in living memory. 80M was considered strong midterm turnout previously and 2018 had over 110M.

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Matt Novak @paleofuture.bsky.social · 9h

Now that is quite a photo. (Credit: Doug Mills / New York Times)

From Doug Mills on X: White House Press Secretary Katie Zacharia and Special Assistant to the president Natalie Harp join President Donald Trump in Marine One he arrived in Wasilla, Alaska yesterday.

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Opinion Haver @asinmarx.bsky.social · 9h

Assuming we sweep the competitive races in 2026 (ME, NC, TX, KS, NE, AK, IA, OH, SC somehow) we hit 56. In 2028 we could have a shot at NC, WI, AK (if Murkowski retires), and then we're kind of stuck at 59. IA and KS are up but huge lifts in pres years, and we still have to hold on to OH.

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m @keptsimple.bsky.social · 9h

many centrists are as disdainful of science as MAGA these days. virtually every study on the topic, and there have been many, show that youth programs reduce crime. it's a settled question. this is no different from claiming vaccines are a hoax.

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CJ Ciaramella @cjciaramella.bsky.social · 12h

Funny story: After Maryland Rep. Andy Harris blocked marijuana legalization in DC, residents would call up his office to complain about potholes and stuff. When the staffer would explain that they weren't constituents, they'd yell something to the effect of, "Then stop fucking with our weed!"

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Gaius (from Tribunate) @gaius.bsky.social · 27/04/2026

When Woke 2 arrives we are reorganizing the DFW exurbs as workers’ communes

This is the best real estate in the world.
1:1:1 Chipotle to Chick-Fil-A to Crumbl ratio.
More HOAs per capita than anywhere on Earth. Only 3.5% property taxes. Only 45 minutes to downtown Dallas. Every house has a privacy fence.
Current entry level price: $1.2 million

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Opinion Haver @asinmarx.bsky.social · 21h

Idk if I'd really call it a fluke as much as Germany optimizing their military towards defeating countries like France, and then running out of Frances pretty quickly.

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Opinion Haver @asinmarx.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

And France! And Russia! Germany never managed to mechanize their military enough to do away with horses

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Opinion Haver @asinmarx.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

And rave is only a decent proxy for partisanship among young voters in Georgia. There are actually a good number of young whites who vote for Democrats, compared to like, Alabama

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Opinion Haver @asinmarx.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

This is another indicator of young Republicans being utterly disengaged this year

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Jesse Hawken @jessehawken.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

She looks like she’s wearing several people’s faces in layers

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#StupidSuez @diplomatofnight.com · 13/10/2026

Eisenkot, the most likely alternative to Netanyahu for the next head of government in Israel, says yesterday that "two states for two peoples is a mistake" and that "Ben Gvir probably did some good things in the prisons". He also said he would not coalition with any of the Palestinian parties.

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Opinion Haver @asinmarx.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

I can't tell if the funnier explanation is that Logan Paul was the nth speaker so the Trump team gave him the nth speech for the night, or if Jake Paul said this because he actually believes this

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Matthew Downhour @matthewdownhour.bsky.social · 12/10/2026

Why does every member of the judiciary need to learn this lesson individually

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🦉 @smallmutuals.bsky.social · 12/10/2026

A story in two parts

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Opinion Haver @asinmarx.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

I'm sorry, InsiderAdvantage has Marshall down? What?

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Maggie McNeill @maggiemcneill.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

The term everyone is dancing around is "secret police", a hallmark of totalitarian regimes.

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James Medlock @jdcmedlock.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

Turns out the friction of having to learn photoshop was a crucial firewall protecting society from the terrible taste of small business owners

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Innsmouth Looksmaxxing @gonebabygone.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

The sheer intellectual laziness of a guy who's nominally in academia going "I think I hate this person I'd never heard of based on short-form video, you guys wanna go ahead and finish my opinion for me?"

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Opinion Haver @asinmarx.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

The only reason it even sort of makes sense is that one out of every 11 America lives in Texas, so eventually the local ad slot price can get high enough to make national slot pricing competitive. You'd never see this in Maine or Kansas.

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Innsmouth Looksmaxxing @gonebabygone.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

This country has always had bloodlust in it but this moment is extra depraved because it's never before combined that bloodlust with "everything is content" mindset

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Coach Finstock @coachfinstock.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

I love that it's totally cool and legal to use social media to rile up an angry hateful mob and incite them to attack doctors and send in bomb threats to children's hospitals but texting Shrek dong to a politician gets you hauled into court

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Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

New working paper: the Norwegian wealth tax was a huge success. The "exodus" of wealthy people never happened (less than 100 individuals left). Tax revenue increased by 71.5%. No changes in business activity or investment. www.nber.org/papers/w35854

Taxing Entrepreneurial Wealth: Evidence from
Norway, 2021-2025
Marius A. K. Ring
WORKING PAPER 35854|
DOl 10.3386/w35854
ISSUE DATE October 2026
Whether imposing higher taxes on business owners adversely affects business activity by constraining investment and inducing capitalist flight is a central question in the ongoing debate on how to tax the ultra wealthy. To shed new light, I exploit a series of related Norwegian reforms during 2021-2024 that increased dividend tax rates, removed migration-related capital gains tax loopholes, and nearly doubled the effective marginal tax rate on business wealth. These reforms spurred international debate and, allegedly, an "exodus" of Norwegian billionaires (Financial Times,
2023). While I document clear effects on migration, these responses are concentrated among the top 0.1% of the wealth distribution and mostly confined to 2022 and 2023. My results indicate that at most 100 individuals left due to the reforms. I find no evidence of significant outmigration or reduced inflows of startup founders or inventors. I estimate that absent any outmigration, wealth tax revenues would have increased by 75% from 2021 to 2024. Reform-driven outmigration lowers the revenue gain to 71.5%. My findings further show that outmigrating owners' firms remain economically active and do not reduce investment. In a broader set of analyses, I examine whether business outcomes are affected, regardless of whether owners outmigrate, since firms may reduce investment both due to liquidity constraints or distortions to owners' savings decisions. I compare firms owned by Norwegian individuals subject to the wealth tax with firms owned by foreigners and other tax-exempt entities. By merging historical ownership data from Orbis with the Norwegian shareholder register, I perform these analyses on both Norwegian and foreign-domiciled firms.
Across settings, I find no evidence that Norwegian-owned firms pay out more dividends or invest less after the reforms,…

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Melissa Gira Grant @melissagiragrant.com · 09/10/2026

“Although [Mr. Belgal] was initially hospitalized, it appears that ICE moved quickly to transfer him out of the hospital to an unknown location—raising grave concerns for his health and well-being.” from @maketheroadny.bsky.social’s habeas petition filed today

courthousenews.com

ICE shot a man in New York City; his lawyers can’t find him

The agency claims Oscar Belgal "weaponized his vehicle” against agents in the Bronx, prompting them to fire seven shots at his car.

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molly conger @socialistdogmom.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

this execution by firing squad is brought to you by crypto dot com

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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 09/10/2026

‘Median wealth for a family in the top 10% of earners increased 31%, while wealth decreased for the bottom 40% of earners.’ www.wsj.com/economy/affl...

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Opinion Haver @asinmarx.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Every time I read this "make every mission about my hopes and dreams" just gets sadder. Not even in a funny way, I just get sad reading it

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Opinion Haver @asinmarx.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

You can kind of convince yourself how the DFW and Houston districts could get competitive (esp because DFW polling is apparently insane) but the two more rural ones are... difficult to argue the case for

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Opinion Haver @asinmarx.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

You're not mentioning the best part, which is that the poll had Paxton up 2. Trump+23 district btw

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Opinion Haver @asinmarx.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Huel is offered in powder, bar, and if you're feeling fancy, instant noodle form, and costs like $10-$20/day if it's literally your only food

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Opinion Haver @asinmarx.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

I think "this is utterly horrific" on top and linking to a headline about sexual assault both serve as visible indicators what's about to be described

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Opinion Haver @asinmarx.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

The next Dem administration needs to chuck the whole thing in the trash and build a new immigration enforcement system. Ideally with a new citizenship process, but the new organization has to happen regardless

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Opinion Haver @asinmarx.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

You have to go to the crosstabs d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ec...

d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net

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Opinion Haver @asinmarx.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

SC is a mid sized state (much bigger than Iowa or Kansas for instance) that unfortunately requires you to shell out on three media markets that mostly miss the state (Charlotte, Savannah, and Augusta) to properly play in it

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Opinion Haver @asinmarx.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Yes, as in surveys being too Democratic

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Opinion Haver @asinmarx.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

You want gas to be $8/gallon to win the midterms, I want gas to be $8/gallon to punish the American driver. We are NOT the same.

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Opinion Haver @asinmarx.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Honestly I have no which of these explanations is correct. Actually, this might be less about being correct or incorrect than about two different paths the election could be headed down depending on how the next month goes

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Opinion Haver @asinmarx.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Florida is 20% Hispanic by CVAP. Twice the national average but also less you might think. California, Texas, and New Mexico are all 40%ish or higher

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Opinion Haver @asinmarx.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Kansas and Nebraska are around 2/3 national average for Hispanic population share, but lag a bit more in vote share (IIRC), and Georgia is way behind in both, as does Alaska, which is also very young/good for Dems, but I cut for space

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Opinion Haver @asinmarx.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

And this is compounded by another feature of this year's GCB polling: polls that rely on modeling based on previous election participation show a D+5-7 year, similar to the RV polls. Polls that screen for LV based on self-reported enthusiasm are the ones with D leads in the double digits.

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Opinion Haver @asinmarx.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

But the flip side is that this could just be this cycle's big source of polling error. Young people are very hard to poll, and have less consistent voting histories/partisan identities to weight to. We all saw MI/WI polling whiff because youth enthusiasm was real but way overstated by self-report.

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Opinion Haver @asinmarx.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

And of course this is a double edged sword: you could see this as reassuring that polling is accurate this year: young people have turned way, way harder against Trump compared to other groups, and this means that state polling is broadly consistent with less "horserace" polling

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Opinion Haver @asinmarx.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

The only state that really breaks this pattern is Florida, where Democrats are only running 4-5pts behind where national polling would suggest, despite a very old electorate.

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Opinion Haver @asinmarx.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

This is a surprisingly robust pattern. Kansas, Nebraska, and Georgia are all younger than the US average. Meanwhile most other old states don't have many elections this year, though Michigan, Wisconsin, and Oregon are some of the oldest that do, and look at their polling.

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Opinion Haver @asinmarx.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

In the states with the oldest population, Maine and New Hampshire, polling is showing Democrats barely doing better than in 2024. America's youngest state is Utah, which has nothing up this year. But the 2nd youngest state is Texas, where polling is showing a cataclysmic event for the GOP.

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Opinion Haver @asinmarx.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

We've reached the point of asking me to imagine that the undecideds entirely broke in the way that would best suit your argument? Why not imagine that they all voted Republican, or Green, or maybe I can just imagine myself going to bed now.

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