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Ali Duffey

@aliduffey.bsky.social
297 followers 768 following 105 posts

Climate science | Stratospheric aerosol injection | Arctic climate change Senior Scientist at Reflective and visiting researcher at UCL

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Reposted by Ali Duffey
Oliver Morton, Eater of Sun @eaterofsun.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Really helpful climate graphic—can't remember seeing a plot quite like this before. www.theclimatebrink.com/p/my-new-nyt...
Chart showing cumulative probabilities of passing various levels of warming (y axis) over time (x axis) on the basis of current policies. The curve for 2 degrees is sigmoid, reaching 50% at 2050 and saturating at 100% by 2100. The curve for 3 degrees lifts off zero just before 2050 and reaches 50% in 2107. By 2150 (end of the chart) it has reached 77%. 4C gets started around 2075, is <5% at 2100 and has reached 28% by 2150
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Reposted by Ali Duffey
Dan Visioni @danvisioni.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
“Nobody has ever studied this carefully” said the people who spent 10 years threatening to tank the carrier of anybody daring to studying that thing carefully and systematically. I’m going to have a brain aneurysm before 40.
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Ali Duffey @aliduffey.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
Paper out today on high-latitude low-altitude stratospheric aerosol injection (HiLLA-SAI). It's long, with literally 100s of sub-plots, so TL:DR: HiLLA-SAI is a polar-focused but still global intervention, with ~40-70% the global cooling efficiency of "normal" SAI esd.copernicus.org/articles/17/...
esd.copernicus.org
The global climate response to High-Latitude Low-Altitude Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (HiLLA-SAI)
Abstract. High-latitude low-altitude (HiLLA) Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) would face fewer logistical barriers than high-altitude low-latitude SAI, because it could use repurposed existing la...
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Reposted by Ali Duffey
David Roberts @volts.wtf · 04/03/2026
On Friday, I'm talking with the head of Reflective, a nonprofit trying to accelerate the responsible research of solar radiation modification (SRM), ie, blocking some sunlight from reaching earth in order to cool the atmosphere. Geoengineering! Got questions?
reflective.org
Reflective | Radically Accelerating the Pace of Sunlight Reflection Research
We equip the world with the data and tools needed to make informed decisions about sunlight reflection, fast enough to matter.
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 25/12/2025
Giving what we can has implemented a fun game where you spin a globe to see how your starting point in life would compare if you were reborn today, randomly somewhere on earth. www.givingwhatwecan.org/birth-lottery
givingwhatwecan.org
Birth Lottery
If you were reborn today, where would you land? And how would that change your life?
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Matthew Henry @mattjohenry.bsky.social · 11/12/2025
New paper on Marine Cloud Brightening in the Arctic! Our simulations show that the introduction of sea-salt aerosols brightens clouds in the Arctic and leads to substantial Arctic cooling, which also restores Arctic sea ice. agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
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Ali Duffey @aliduffey.bsky.social · 07/12/2025
Reading back through @eaterofsun.bsky.social 's The Planet Remade and thought this snippet about German involvement in geoengineering research was interesting. 10 years later the opposite seems true. On the other hand, the description of GeoMIP conferences fits the recent ones pretty well..
Excerpt from the book The Planet Remade stating that Germany is the country that has been spending the most money in solar geoengineering research
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Ali Duffey @aliduffey.bsky.social · 05/12/2025
This from @outrageoptimism.bsky.social is a great intro to recent solar geoengineering developments www.outrageandoptimism.org/episodes/jac...
outrageandoptimism.org
Jacinda Ardern and… Is It Time to Talk About Geoengineering?
This week, hosts Tom Rivett Carnac and Paul Dickinson delve into the rapidly emerging - and faintly surreal - world of solar geoengineering.
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Andrew Williams @andrewilwilliams.bsky.social · 04/12/2025
Our paper is published! 🎉🎉🎉 If you want to understand changes in total rainfall under warming, give this a read! Happy to chat about it with people :) agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
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Andrew Curry @andrewcurry.com · 20/11/2025
In 2022, archaeologists at @uni-kiel.de's @neolithicbodies.bsky.social found 34 decapitated skeletons piled in a space the size of a parking spot. In the 3 years since, they’ve found 50 more. The mass grave is evidence for the collapse of the 1st pan-European culture 7,000 years ago. @science.org 🏺💀
science.org
Headless bodies hint at why Europe’s first farmers vanished
Wave of mass brutality accompanied the collapse of the first pan-European culture
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Matthew Henry @mattjohenry.bsky.social · 14/11/2025
@aliduffey.bsky.social and I have a new response to the Siegert et al piece on geoengineering published as a commentary in Frontiers (the online version is now properly edited with the figure).
frontiersin.org
Frontiers | Commentary: Safeguarding the polar regions from dangerous geoengineering: a critical assessment of proposed concepts and future prospects
Research into polar climate intervention is understandably controversial. The deliberate manipulation of Earth's climate has deep physical, political, an...
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Reposted by Ali Duffey
Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 06/11/2025
Should we start historical climate simulations in 1750 (or 1800) rather than 1850? Importance of beginning industrial-era climate simulations in the eighteenth century Ballinger, Schurer et al.: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
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MIT Technology Review @technologyreview.com · 04/11/2025
In this opinion piece, two scientists argue that the growing commercial efforts to counter climate change by reflecting away sunlight will thwart responsible research in the field.
technologyreview.com
Why the for-profit race into solar geoengineering is bad for science and public trust
Two scientists argue that the growing commercial efforts to counter climate change by reflecting away sunlight will thwart responsible research in the field.
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IASC_Arctic @iasc-arctic.bsky.social · 31/10/2025
📝 Call for all Polar Researchers to take the Science under Pressure survey! Submissions deadline is 15 November 2025 Read more and take the survey: www.rug.nl/research/arc...
rug.nl
Science under Pressure
Science under pressure: Reflecting on conditions, practices and institutional structures for sustainable polar research
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Ali Duffey @aliduffey.bsky.social · 18/10/2025
"when we deploy it we will see how effective is" I hear this quite a bit but it isn't true. 10 years into a hypothetical SAI deployment, observed rainfall patterns would be pretty much useless for reducing our uncertainty in e.g. indian summer monsoon impacts
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James Dyke @jamesgdyke.info · 17/10/2025
Interesting new paper from Exeter colleague Jim Haywood, and previous @exeter.ac.uk PhD student Alice Wells about geoengineering - specifically what would sulphate aerosol injection do with respect to high levels of global warming 1/2. agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
A Risk‐Risk Assessment of Climate Extremes: Comparing Greenhouse Gas Warming and Stratospheric Aerosol Injection in UKESM1
This study compares the impacts on extreme events under climate change with and without a multi-latitude Stratospheric Aerosol Injection strategy in UKESM1 G6controller reduces extreme heat relat...
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Ali Duffey @aliduffey.bsky.social · 16/10/2025
The NYT piece quoted here is amazing. Written over 70 years ago and reads exactly like articles about this summer's Texas Rainmaker conspiracy
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Ali Duffey @aliduffey.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
love this chart. It's too late for 1.5, but the fight for 2C is very much still alive
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Marie Le Conte @youngvulgarian.marieleconte.com · 19/09/2025
wrote about this last year and sure I wasn't in any way the only one but imo people voting for populist politics in the 21st century *is* a sign that they do just have too much faith in institutions, as opposed to not enough - they want to have their little tantrum but assume things will just hold
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Ali Duffey @aliduffey.bsky.social · 09/09/2025
Is this a crisis or not? Are tipping point risks serious or not? Net zero is non-negotiable, but climate impacts are here, and all plausible emissions scenarios see us pass 1.5C. If now is not a reasonable time to explore radical ideas, when would be?
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Jack Blackburn @hackblackburn.bsky.social · 04/08/2025
One of the all-time great test matches. One of the all-time great series. Topsy-turvy, up and down and, in the end, perfectly balanced. Can't say fairer than that.
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Hannah Ritchie @hannahritchie.bsky.social · 14/07/2025
The Guardian will publish scary headlines about ice sheet and AMOC collapse on a Friday, then stuff like this on a Monday: www.theguardian.com/commentisfre... How are people supposed to navigate this? Is climate change an urgent problem, or not?
theguardian.com
Ed Miliband would let a turbine farm destroy Brontë country. We need net zero, but at what cost? | Simon Jenkins
Of course the climate crisis must be confronted, but history, tranquility and beauty must also count for something, says Guardian columnist Simon Jenkins
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Ali Duffey @aliduffey.bsky.social · 11/07/2025
Given this context, I'm delighted to share a new review on the solar geoengineering and earth system tipping points. Its a long read including ice sheets, AMOC, coral reefs, Amazon dieback and various others.. TLDR: solar geo probably helps avoid tipping, but a lot more research is needed
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The Alliance for Just Deliberation on Solar Geoengineering @sgdeliberation.bsky.social · 07/07/2025
New opportunity: Become a DSG Fellow and contribute to building critical expertise on solar geoengineering governance. Early- or mid-career and working in climate science, policy, ethics, law, or humanities with an interest in SRM? Apply now: www.sgdeliberation.org/our-work/res...
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Reposted by Ali Duffey
Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 29/06/2025
And remember that the peak temperatures you experience in SE England in the next couple of days will be 4-5°C warmer than they would have been with similar weather patterns in the climate of a century ago.
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Ali Duffey @aliduffey.bsky.social · 16/06/2025
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Ali Duffey @aliduffey.bsky.social · 09/06/2025
It was great fun collaborating with Robbie and others on this paper. The stability of the winter Arctic atmosphere is a big part of why it is warming so fast in that season, so its important to understand whether the models are doing a reasonable job, and if not, why.
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Brigitte Nerlich @bnerlich.bsky.social · 30/05/2025
In today's post I catch up with some #geoengineering #metaphors which I have been observing since around 2009 blogs.nottingham.ac.uk/makingscienc...
blogs.nottingham.ac.uk
Geoengineering and metaphors, 2009 to 2025: Continuity and change - Making Science Public
Since around 2006, I have been interested in speculations about geoengineering, that is, attempts to deal with climate change by directly intervening in the planet’s atmosphere, oceans, or land. Such interventions include pulling carbon dioxide from the atmosphere or dampening solar radiation. In the UK there have been three inflection points in reflections about such ...
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Ali Duffey @aliduffey.bsky.social · 29/05/2025
Feels like the 1.5C date has been coming towards us faster than we have been going towards it over the last few years
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Ali Duffey @aliduffey.bsky.social · 21/05/2025
Come for the acronym puns, stay for the SAI emulator trained on data from two different ESMs across a wide range of injection strategies (great new pre-print lead by Jared Farley) egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...
egusphere.copernicus.org
A Climate Intervention Dynamical Emulator (CIDER) for Scenario Space Exploration
Abstract. Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) is a form of climate intervention that has been proposed as a way to reflect incoming solar radiation in order to provide a cooling effect and offset so...
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Ali Duffey @aliduffey.bsky.social · 17/05/2025
I had a fantastic time this week at the Degrees Global Forum on SRM. The largest conference of its kind so far, and a real step forward in diversifying the conversation on solar geo. Huge kudos to @degrees.ngo for pulling it off.
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Ali Duffey @aliduffey.bsky.social · 14/05/2025
A rare win for the UK government 🇬🇧
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Reposted by Ali Duffey
The Degrees Initiative @degrees.ngo · 12/05/2025
Let’s go! 🚀 #DGF2025 kicking off today in Cape Town—the world’s largest-ever forum on solar radiation modification and the first held in Africa. Over 330 participants from 30+ countries are here to shape the global conversation on the science, equity, and governance of SRM.
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Dan Visioni @danvisioni.bsky.social · 07/05/2025
I've always been open about my belief that having +research on SRM is good, so to me the ARIA program is very welcome. Most of the funded research is about expanding our understanding of potential outcomes through modeling, obs and engagement. Yes, there are some outdoor scientific experiments:
theguardian.com
Real-world geoengineering experiments revealed by UK agency
Trials will test ways to block sunlight and slow climate crisis that threatens to trigger catastrophic tipping points
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Ali Duffey @aliduffey.bsky.social · 07/05/2025
ARIA just announced their funding allocaitons for their £57 million worth of research into solar climate intervention Lots of exciting projects from a real diversity of approaches www.aria.org.uk/opportunity-...
aria.org.uk
Exploring Climate Cooling
Backed by £56.8m, this programme will explore whether approaches designed to delay, or avert, climate tipping points could be feasible, scalable, and safe.
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micheltsamados.bsky.social @micheltsamados.bsky.social · 02/05/2025
Another great article on @aliduffey.bsky.social 's latest work by the amazing journalist @chelseaeharvey.bsky.social . This one is behind a paywall but check it if you can www.eenews.net/articles/sol...
eenews.net
Solar geoengineering is possible with existing aircraft, study says
Scientists previously have suggested that the hypothetical climate fix would require specialized high-altitude vehicles.
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Alison Fisk @alisonfisk.bsky.social · 30/04/2025
Jiminy Cricket! It’s an #IceAge grasshopper! The so-called ‘Grasshopper of Enlène’, engraved on bone some 17,000 - 14,000 years ago, is the most detailed representation of an insect in Paleolithic art known to date. From the Enlène Cave, Ariège, France. Magdalenian period. 📷 me #Archaeology 🏺
My photo shows an insect usually referred to as a grasshopper, engraved on a fragment of bone during the Magdalenian period of the Upper Paleolithic. It is drawn in a naturalistic style, shown in profile facing right, with two pairs of front legs and antennae. It was discovered c. 1928 in the cave habitat of the Grotte d'Enlène, in the foothills of the French Pyrenees.
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Ali Duffey @aliduffey.bsky.social · 29/04/2025
I don't love the headline here, and the comments section leaves a lot to be desired.. but its great to see this coverage of our new paper giving space to both the risks and the potential benefits of SAI www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/04...
telegraph.co.uk
Boeing 777s could cool the planet... if you don’t mind acid rain
‘Stratospheric aerosol injection’ technique could put brakes on global warming, study finds, but with damaging knock-on effects
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Ali Duffey @aliduffey.bsky.social · 28/04/2025
I'm really pleased to share this paper, published today in Earth's Future. Running the 45 climate model simulations we used was a lot of work, so its a great feeling to see our findings out in the world. agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Low‐Altitude High‐Latitude Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Is Feasible With Existing Aircraft
Seasonal SAI with low-altitude high-latitude injection achieves 35% of the forcing efficiency of a high-altitude subtropical strategy If injection altitude is limited to below 14 km, then high-la...
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UCL News @uclnews.bsky.social · 28/04/2025
A technique to cool the planet, in which particles are added to the atmosphere to reflect sunlight, would not necessarily require developing special aircraft but could be achieved using existing large planes, finds a new modelling study led by PhD student @aliduffey.bsky.social @es-ucl.bsky.social
ucl.ac.uk
Geoengineering technique could cool planet using existing aircraft
A technique to cool the planet, in which particles are added to the atmosphere to reflect sunlight, would not require developing special aircraft but could be achieved using existing large planes, acc...
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Ali Duffey @aliduffey.bsky.social · 23/04/2025
I really enjoyed this book. "Climate isn't everything" is often what I say when I'm trying to convince people that no, we shouldn't just start solar geoengineering tomorrow. Useful to see that argument carefully put forward.
Cover of book "Climate change isn't everything" by Mike Hulme
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Jesse Reynolds @jreynolds.org · 15/04/2025
The agenda of the Degrees Global Forum on SRM is online! If you are coming to Cape Town next month, plant your time! If you are not coming, then browse and reconsider! degreesglobalforum.org/about/agenda/
degreesglobalforum.org
Agenda
Explore the agenda for each day of the Degrees Global Forum on SRM, 12-16 May 2025.
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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 07/04/2025
We've focused a lot on the effects of low sulfur fuel standards on recent warming, but in some ways whats happened in China is even a bigger story. They have reduced their SO2 emissions nearly 75% since 2005, resulting in ~0.06C (0.02C to 0.11C) warming.
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Matthew Henry @mattjohenry.bsky.social · 14/03/2025
I have a letter in the @theguardian.com in response to the oped from @michaelemann.bsky.social and @climatebook.bsky.social which called for @aria-research.bsky.social's climate intervention programme to be defunded. www.theguardian.com/environment/...
theguardian.com
Climate research into cloud barriers or Arctic refreezing is worth funding | Letters
Letters: Dr Matthew Henry and Prof Stuart Haszeldine respond to an article about the UK’s ‘gamble’ on the Aria programme
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Dan Visioni @danvisioni.bsky.social · 14/03/2025
thebulletin.org/2025/03/fore... Me and my colleagues at Cornell wrote for the @thebulletin.org: “Put bluntly: Americans will die and American businesses will lose untold billions if we do not protect NOAA and NWS.”
thebulletin.org
Forecast for weaker weather service: Americans will die, businesses will lose billions
The critical infrastructure provided by NOAA and NWS cannot and will never be duplicated by the private sector.
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Ali Duffey @aliduffey.bsky.social · 13/03/2025
Aspirin (safe but low impact) is a terrible analogy here. chemotherapy is the better analogy if we must use the cancer metaphor — powerful but risky, potentially a net benefit despite direct harms, and you wouldn't even consider it if things weren't really bad www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
theguardian.com
The UK’s gamble on solar geoengineering is like using aspirin for cancer | Raymond Pierrehumbert and Michael Mann
Injecting pollutants into the atmosphere to reflect the sun would be extremely dangerous, but the UK is funding field trials
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The Degrees Initiative @degrees.ngo · 06/03/2025
🚢 First-ever African marine cloud brightening study published!☁️ A Degrees-funded team in South Africa led by Romaric Odoulami finds MCB over the Southeast Pacific has the strongest cooling effect. But crucially, where it's deployed makes all the difference. Read more: www.degrees.ngo/brightening-...
degrees.ngo
Brightening marine clouds could reduce climate impacts, shows first-of-its-kind African study
In the first ever African study modelling the impact of Marine Cloud Brightening on the African Climate, Romaric Odoulami and his team find that deployment location matters.
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Ali Duffey @aliduffey.bsky.social · 28/02/2025
For anyone in Cambridge this evening and interested in hearing about solar geoengineering. The panel is full of very cool speakers (and also me)
Poster for a panel discussion event on engineering the climate at Clare College Cambridge, 6pm to 7.30 pm 28th February.
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