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Jonathan Todd

@yontodd.bsky.social
2.5K followers 502 following 895 posts

📈📉 US markets/macro/Fed/housing (all opinions here = own). 🗣️ Learning French with very modest success (Intermediate/B1). 📍Chicago, but always very Californian. yontodd.substack.com

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Reposted by Jonathan Todd
Grant Brisbee @grantbrisbee.bsky.social · 10h
the hell they can, three straight yamamoto splitters and khamenei's back in the dugout before he knows what happened
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1. Trump says Iran could hit Los Angeles
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 14h
From The Athletic MLB newsletter: "If the White Sox win either Games 3 or 4 at Rate Field, they will clinch a series at home for the first time since … 1906! That was when Doc White outpitched Mordecai “Three-Finger” Brown and the Cubs to win 8-3 and clinch the World Series in six."
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 16h
"Muse, the popular new AI personal assistant from Meta, is building continuously updated dossiers on its 4 million users The level of insight in the resulting dossiers makes social-media algorithms that study your likes and clicks look quaint" time.com/article/2026...
time.com
Meta’s Muse AI Agent Is Building a Dossier On You
Internal instructions reviewed by TIME show the AI assistant mapping users and their contacts—including people who don’t use Muse—and sharing anonymized insights across its system.
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Just because there are actually numbers to such things... Crime levels are lower in Chicago on a 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, and 4Y basis
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Jordan Novet @jordannovet.cnbc.com · 05/10/2026
"More than two-thirds of groups on the Russell 1000 index of large US groups are linked to AI, either directly or because the technology is becoming embedded in their business models, according to Citigroup research." www.ft.com/content/3302...
ft.com
Home - Financial Times
News, analysis and opinion from the Financial Times on the latest in markets, economics and politics
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Block Club Chicago @blockclubchi.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
The CTA has unveiled a 1950s neon-style sign at a revamped Blue Line stop. buff.ly/5Ifslf9
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Beach House?!
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Molly Knight @mollyknight.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
He somehow managed to spike opponents with his cleats and ALSO not run out ground balls in the World Series. Incredible bit.
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Put together some thoughts on AI/capex, the recent shift to off-balance sheet, and why it's (probably? maybe?) not the same as the pre-GFC financial gymnastics yontodd.substack.com/p/gpu-monoli...
yontodd.substack.com
The GPU monoline: How $3T in off-balance-sheet AI debt is rewriting Big Tech credit
Amazon’s $8B SPV and Broadcom’s $60B debt package reveal the AI buildout has outgrown retained earnings. Why the real risk isn't a 2008-style bust, but a structural blow-out in credit dispersion.
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James Ball @jamesrball.com · 02/10/2026
Great way to demonstrate the club isn't state owned and is a totally independent business, honest.
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Brentreé
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
This is fine etc etc $PSKY $ORCL www.ft.com/content/2c56...
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
“What a chart.” - Bespoke
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
"I just got a tariff from Lindsey Graham. Lindsey Graham, first time in 50 years."
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Forget "I don't blame you, Kevin," the "This just happened?" is the best quote on Trump/Fed bit time.com/article/2026...
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Regardless... Some wild data out this week on how extreme this skew has become: - ~45% of S&P 500 stocks have a negative beta to the index - Top-heavy skew is breaking standard portfolio hedges - How buying SPX puts is like buying insurance on the Dodgers yontodd.substack.com/p/sp500-nega...
yontodd.substack.com
The diversification illusion: 45% of the S&P 500 now has negative beta - and the index hedge is broken
Roughly 45% of S&P 500 stocks now move inversely to the index. Why cap-weighted tech skews the market like MLB payrolls, and why index hedging is broken.
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
I know I should be writing about rates and serious macro things, but I took some liberties and compared the market’s crap breadth with how MLB has worked in recent years The main takeaway is clearly that if you don’t like the Dodgers, you probably don’t like resilient equity portfolios
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Net exports, consumer spending a bigger than expected drag on growth... Atlanta Fed GDPNow down from 5.0% to 3.7% www.atlantafed.org/research-and...
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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
tracking human-human interaction is becoming increasingly important
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Barry Butler Photography @barrybutler9.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Fire on Friday. Today's sunrise over the Chicago skyline.
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bendwalsh.bsky.social @bendwalsh.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
an ex-Chelsea owner enmeshed in the Russian oil industry?!
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
$FUN -45% since Travis Kelce got involved www.wsj.com/business/dea...
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Correct. Similarly, this was probably my favorite read from the weekend. www.newyorker.com/culture/the-...
newyorker.com
Should the Classroom Be More Like the Gym?
As A.I. presses harder on the academic enterprise, we might look to a place where process is its own reward.
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Jim Pickard @pickardje.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
my brilliant colleague @robertshrimsley.bsky.social on the threat from Elon Musk’s X platform www.ft.com/content/f270...
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
I'd guess he may be talking about this? Either way, not really a great trend. Builders in an awful position, existing homeowners aren't going to sell into a supply dump in some metros, affordabilty still a big challenge, etc. Not the healthy market he's making it out to be bsky.app/profile/yont...
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
From today's Athletic FC newsletter... "'I want to reclaim the flag for us,' Klopp said. 'I don’t want to leave national pride to the wrong people.' If any coach is tailor-made for that mission, it’s him."
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
These FFB people can't fathom the mental toll it takes to 1) research the 5th starter on, say, the Diamondbacks because he has a 2-start week, 2) to actually pull the trigger and wait to see how those pan out, and 3) to do it again next week with the Marlins' 5th starter. On edge for weeks on end...
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
I'm going to take issue with this article though - St. Catharines is decidedly not in between Hamilton and Toronto
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Trying to nail down a date for a trip to Rome and already have scoped out a hotel in Esquilino (new Hyatt - not Time Out-y, but the neighborhood will more than do)
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
wild -- Lennar has cut new home ASPs by ~30% since 2022, from $511K to $359K Good thread from over there x.com/nickgerli1/s...
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Somebody, somewhere beat you to it www.doordash.com/products/fin...
doordash.com
Financial Times Weekend Newspaper (1 ct) | Delivery Near Me - Doordash
Get Financial Times Weekend Newspaper (1 ct) delivered to your door in as fast as 1 hour. Shop your favorite products online and enjoy the same-day speed and reliability of DoorDash
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
“The word ‘Deficit’ is nothing more than a fancy word for LOSS” -Michael Scott Oh wait...
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
"Clearlake will hope that paying up to end the club’s messy governance will improve decision making. It has its work cut out to give Boehly seller’s remorse." www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
Are Chelsea’s Also-Rans Really Worth £5 Billion?
There are far less stressful ways to make a modest profit than dabbling in an English Premier League football club. So financier Todd Boehly must feel some relief to be leaving Chelsea FC without fina...
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Ivan the K ™ @ivanthek.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
He will never understand monetary economics. He was a non-investment grade issuer in the private sector. He does not have the capacity or the curiosity to learn fiat currency economics. Note, he doesn't mention Warsh.
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Stephen Moore on the TV, the pride of... New Trier HS?
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Yep same. Out here scenario planing in extremis
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Don't get me started on how with an even number of dot plot guesses we got a median forecast at the top end of an actual range...
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Katie Martin @katie0martin.ft.com · 15/09/2026
Big things are happening. Foreign investors prefer US stocks to Treasuries as debt worries grow - www.ft.com/content/e565...
ft.com
Foreign investors prefer US stocks to Treasuries as debt worries grow
International flows into American equities exceed government debt for first time this century outside pandemic and aftermath of global financial crisis
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
75% of investors say Treasury bond buybacks either do nothing or push yields higher -- from BofA FMS
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Bob Burgess @bobburgess.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
When a member of TBAC says this, it's time to pay attention: “...there are emerging-market-type risks in some of the actions the US has been taking,” said Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management and a member of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee...
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
"The new private buyers pay far more attention to yield and have to be offered higher and higher rates to absorb the growing Treasury supply." www.ft.com/content/a441...
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Risk is defintiely to the upside on rates, I'd be very amused to see a surge of people rushing to lock in that 7.07% mortgage
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Gee wizz, would you look at how quickly investors are marking up their expectations for long-run economic growth in the US!
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
30Y was 5.34% on 18-Aug, the day before the Treasury buyback announcement Now: 5.30%
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Maybe they're right, I haven't spoken to my kids since they turned 5
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
brb going to quit my job so I can homeschool my kids www.wsj.com/opinion/why-...
wsj.com
Opinion | Why Send a Child to Public School?
The common query about home schooling should be flipped.
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Guy is the worst, not disappointed to see him go.
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Today in Championship football: - The team with American owners vs the team with American/Canadian co-owners - The team with American owners vs the team with a bunch of Americans
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
And yet Al Hilal dropping £110M between Gabriel Martinelli and Ollie Watkins this weekend
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Some thoughts on Warsh's speech: - A big improvement vs his post-FOMC press conferences so far. A clearer message and assessment of the economy. (Re)committing to PCE was important. - It increasingly feels to me like he's tilting at windmills wrt forward guidance and the reaction function.
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