Reposted by Jonathan ToddGrant Brisbee @grantbrisbee.bsky.social · 10hthe hell they can, three straight yamamoto splitters and khamenei's back in the dugout before he knows what happened 10506106
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 14hFrom The Athletic MLB newsletter: "If the White Sox win either Games 3 or 4 at Rate Field, they will clinch a series at home for the first time since … 1906! That was when Doc White outpitched Mordecai “Three-Finger” Brown and the Cubs to win 8-3 and clinch the World Series in six." 000
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 16h"Muse, the popular new AI personal assistant from Meta, is building continuously updated dossiers on its 4 million users The level of insight in the resulting dossiers makes social-media algorithms that study your likes and clicks look quaint" time.com/article/2026...time.comMeta’s Muse AI Agent Is Building a Dossier On YouInternal instructions reviewed by TIME show the AI assistant mapping users and their contacts—including people who don’t use Muse—and sharing anonymized insights across its system. 010
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 06/10/2026Just because there are actually numbers to such things... Crime levels are lower in Chicago on a 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, and 4Y basis 010
Reposted by Jonathan ToddJordan Novet @jordannovet.cnbc.com · 05/10/2026"More than two-thirds of groups on the Russell 1000 index of large US groups are linked to AI, either directly or because the technology is becoming embedded in their business models, according to Citigroup research." www.ft.com/content/3302...ft.comHome - Financial TimesNews, analysis and opinion from the Financial Times on the latest in markets, economics and politics 022
Reposted by Jonathan ToddBlock Club Chicago @blockclubchi.bsky.social · 05/10/2026The CTA has unveiled a 1950s neon-style sign at a revamped Blue Line stop. buff.ly/5Ifslf9 965795
Reposted by Jonathan ToddMolly Knight @mollyknight.bsky.social · 04/10/2026He somehow managed to spike opponents with his cleats and ALSO not run out ground balls in the World Series. Incredible bit. 2771
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 04/10/2026Put together some thoughts on AI/capex, the recent shift to off-balance sheet, and why it's (probably? maybe?) not the same as the pre-GFC financial gymnastics yontodd.substack.com/p/gpu-monoli...yontodd.substack.comThe GPU monoline: How $3T in off-balance-sheet AI debt is rewriting Big Tech creditAmazon’s $8B SPV and Broadcom’s $60B debt package reveal the AI buildout has outgrown retained earnings. Why the real risk isn't a 2008-style bust, but a structural blow-out in credit dispersion. 030
Reposted by Jonathan ToddJames Ball @jamesrball.com · 02/10/2026Great way to demonstrate the club isn't state owned and is a totally independent business, honest. 231461
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 02/10/2026This is fine etc etc $PSKY $ORCL www.ft.com/content/2c56... 010
Reposted by Jonathan ToddCarl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 02/10/2026“What a chart.” - Bespoke 1317139
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 01/10/2026"I just got a tariff from Lindsey Graham. Lindsey Graham, first time in 50 years." 000
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 01/10/2026Forget "I don't blame you, Kevin," the "This just happened?" is the best quote on Trump/Fed bit time.com/article/2026... 110
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 30/09/2026Regardless... Some wild data out this week on how extreme this skew has become: - ~45% of S&P 500 stocks have a negative beta to the index - Top-heavy skew is breaking standard portfolio hedges - How buying SPX puts is like buying insurance on the Dodgers yontodd.substack.com/p/sp500-nega...yontodd.substack.comThe diversification illusion: 45% of the S&P 500 now has negative beta - and the index hedge is brokenRoughly 45% of S&P 500 stocks now move inversely to the index. Why cap-weighted tech skews the market like MLB payrolls, and why index hedging is broken. 000
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 30/09/2026I know I should be writing about rates and serious macro things, but I took some liberties and compared the market’s crap breadth with how MLB has worked in recent years The main takeaway is clearly that if you don’t like the Dodgers, you probably don’t like resilient equity portfolios 100
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 30/09/2026Net exports, consumer spending a bigger than expected drag on growth... Atlanta Fed GDPNow down from 5.0% to 3.7% www.atlantafed.org/research-and... 010
Reposted by Jonathan ToddRuo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 29/09/2026tracking human-human interaction is becoming increasingly important 171
Reposted by Jonathan ToddBarry Butler Photography @barrybutler9.bsky.social · 25/09/2026Fire on Friday. Today's sunrise over the Chicago skyline. 544779
Reposted by Jonathan Toddbendwalsh.bsky.social @bendwalsh.bsky.social · 23/09/2026an ex-Chelsea owner enmeshed in the Russian oil industry?! 2339
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 23/09/2026$FUN -45% since Travis Kelce got involved www.wsj.com/business/dea... 010
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 21/09/2026Correct. Similarly, this was probably my favorite read from the weekend. www.newyorker.com/culture/the-...newyorker.comShould the Classroom Be More Like the Gym?As A.I. presses harder on the academic enterprise, we might look to a place where process is its own reward. 041
Reposted by Jonathan ToddJim Pickard @pickardje.bsky.social · 18/09/2026my brilliant colleague @robertshrimsley.bsky.social on the threat from Elon Musk’s X platform www.ft.com/content/f270... 6428111169
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 18/09/2026I'd guess he may be talking about this? Either way, not really a great trend. Builders in an awful position, existing homeowners aren't going to sell into a supply dump in some metros, affordabilty still a big challenge, etc. Not the healthy market he's making it out to be bsky.app/profile/yont... 001
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 18/09/2026From today's Athletic FC newsletter... "'I want to reclaim the flag for us,' Klopp said. 'I don’t want to leave national pride to the wrong people.' If any coach is tailor-made for that mission, it’s him." 15311
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 18/09/2026These FFB people can't fathom the mental toll it takes to 1) research the 5th starter on, say, the Diamondbacks because he has a 2-start week, 2) to actually pull the trigger and wait to see how those pan out, and 3) to do it again next week with the Marlins' 5th starter. On edge for weeks on end... 130
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 18/09/2026I'm going to take issue with this article though - St. Catharines is decidedly not in between Hamilton and Toronto 010
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 18/09/2026Trying to nail down a date for a trip to Rome and already have scoped out a hotel in Esquilino (new Hyatt - not Time Out-y, but the neighborhood will more than do) 211
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 17/09/2026wild -- Lennar has cut new home ASPs by ~30% since 2022, from $511K to $359K Good thread from over there x.com/nickgerli1/s... 021
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 17/09/2026Somebody, somewhere beat you to it www.doordash.com/products/fin...doordash.comFinancial Times Weekend Newspaper (1 ct) | Delivery Near Me - DoordashGet Financial Times Weekend Newspaper (1 ct) delivered to your door in as fast as 1 hour. Shop your favorite products online and enjoy the same-day speed and reliability of DoorDash 000
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 17/09/2026“The word ‘Deficit’ is nothing more than a fancy word for LOSS” -Michael Scott Oh wait... 000
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 17/09/2026"Clearlake will hope that paying up to end the club’s messy governance will improve decision making. It has its work cut out to give Boehly seller’s remorse." www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...bloomberg.comAre Chelsea’s Also-Rans Really Worth £5 Billion?There are far less stressful ways to make a modest profit than dabbling in an English Premier League football club. So financier Todd Boehly must feel some relief to be leaving Chelsea FC without fina... 000
Reposted by Jonathan ToddIvan the K ™ @ivanthek.bsky.social · 16/09/2026He will never understand monetary economics. He was a non-investment grade issuer in the private sector. He does not have the capacity or the curiosity to learn fiat currency economics. Note, he doesn't mention Warsh. 1027936
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 16/09/2026Stephen Moore on the TV, the pride of... New Trier HS? 000
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 16/09/2026Don't get me started on how with an even number of dot plot guesses we got a median forecast at the top end of an actual range... 100
Reposted by Jonathan ToddKatie Martin @katie0martin.ft.com · 15/09/2026Big things are happening. Foreign investors prefer US stocks to Treasuries as debt worries grow - www.ft.com/content/e565...ft.comForeign investors prefer US stocks to Treasuries as debt worries growInternational flows into American equities exceed government debt for first time this century outside pandemic and aftermath of global financial crisis 67925
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 15/09/202675% of investors say Treasury bond buybacks either do nothing or push yields higher -- from BofA FMS 021
Reposted by Jonathan ToddBob Burgess @bobburgess.bsky.social · 11/09/2026When a member of TBAC says this, it's time to pay attention: “...there are emerging-market-type risks in some of the actions the US has been taking,” said Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management and a member of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee... 031
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 10/09/2026"The new private buyers pay far more attention to yield and have to be offered higher and higher rates to absorb the growing Treasury supply." www.ft.com/content/a441... 000
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 10/09/2026Risk is defintiely to the upside on rates, I'd be very amused to see a surge of people rushing to lock in that 7.07% mortgage 031
Reposted by Jonathan ToddDom White @domw.bsky.social · 10/09/2026Gee wizz, would you look at how quickly investors are marking up their expectations for long-run economic growth in the US! 3517
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 09/09/202630Y was 5.34% on 18-Aug, the day before the Treasury buyback announcement Now: 5.30% 000
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 02/09/2026Maybe they're right, I haven't spoken to my kids since they turned 5 020
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 02/09/2026brb going to quit my job so I can homeschool my kids www.wsj.com/opinion/why-...wsj.comOpinion | Why Send a Child to Public School?The common query about home schooling should be flipped. 100
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 02/09/2026Today in Championship football: - The team with American owners vs the team with American/Canadian co-owners - The team with American owners vs the team with a bunch of Americans 000
Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 31/08/2026And yet Al Hilal dropping £110M between Gabriel Martinelli and Ollie Watkins this weekend 000
Reposted by Jonathan ToddDom White @domw.bsky.social · 28/08/2026Some thoughts on Warsh's speech: - A big improvement vs his post-FOMC press conferences so far. A clearer message and assessment of the economy. (Re)committing to PCE was important. - It increasingly feels to me like he's tilting at windmills wrt forward guidance and the reaction function. 1143