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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

US aid to #Ukraine: from €17B a year to almost 0. US diesel imports from Russia: from banned to allowed, after a Trump–Putin call. Europe carries Ukraine’s military aid. Course of action? 1) Congress: reverse the waiver. 2) Europe: use frozen Russian assets. 3) Enforce the Graham Act by Oct 18.

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

Russia’s energy sales help pay for $190B of its military spending in 2025, nearly triple 2021. ($200B+ budgeted for 2027; no peace plans!) Ukraine is at $84B, 40% of GDP, & short on defense $. Response? 1) More money for #Ukraine. 2) No deals with Russia. Not one more barrel of its diesel or oil.

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

This is Ukraine's defense spending. This is a dangerous world. RUS is a threat

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Today, a Russian strike on Pryluky 🇺🇦 killed at least 19 people, incl. 5 children. Same day, in Moscow, ex-🇩🇪 Chancellor Gerhard Schröder told staff of the Russian hypermarket chain whose board he just joined: "I'm very happy to be here... and to meet you, my wonderful colleagues." Moral bankruptcy

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

People are jumping out of windows... imagine your university or institute is hit like this... and then when you recover from this horror, work on helping 🇺🇦

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Today Russia hit the National Academy of Sciences and a Dobrobut hospital in #Kyiv... Barbaric, evil attacks

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

School Math Olympiad in #Kyiv these days, held in a bomb shelter. Russia keeps attacking Ukrainian cities, so these kids solve geometry problems between pipes and ventilation ducts. Every solved problem is a small act of defiance. 🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

War doesn't just destroy factories and kill people — it makes everything left standing less productive. New paper shows half of #Ukraine wartime output collapse comes from allocative TFP loss: resources are trapped in the wrong places. The hidden cost of war is misallocation. tinyurl.com/54w5chce

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

August 24, 2026 #Ukraine's Independence Day 35 years of freedom

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 12/06/2026

Sec. Rubio congratulated the Russian people on Russia Day. US Gov. joined Iran, Belarus, N. Korea, etc. No European government or EU institution congratulated Sec. Blinken in 2022 on RUS day: "...the Kremlin is waging an unprovoked and unjustified war against a sovereign, neighboring state."

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 08/06/2026

This is from Michigan: #inflation expectations increased quite a bit

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 02/06/2026

Monthly losses of Russian vehicles and fuel tankers (Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of #Ukraine) A dramatic increase in recent months. Recent days were ~500/day Daily number for June 1, 2026: 517 At this rate, June will be well above 10,000

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 02/06/2026

Kyiv this morning After a massive Russian attack

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 28/05/2026

Olivier Blanchard on my #Ukriane chapter for #CEPR Europe 2050 project: "You may well start skeptical: Yes, first we need peace or something close. And UKR is not perfect. But read it with an open mind and change your mind, or at least move your prior. The opportunity is there." #UkrainianView

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 28/05/2026

Great pleasure to contribute my chapter on #Ukraine to CEPR's Europe 2050 Years ago, #California was the frontier of the “Wild West.” Today, it is the beating heart of innovation and the new economy. In much the same way, Ukraine is poised to become the “Wild East” of the European Union (EU).

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 26/05/2026

The National Bank of Ukraine and Narodowy Bank Polski invite submissions for their 10th joint Annual Research Conference titled “Central Banks Response to Future Challenges: Resilience, Credibility, and Innovation”. See the call for papers #EconSky

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 13/05/2026

PPI inflation: 6%in April 2026 The Producer Price Index (PPI) is generally considered a leading indicator for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) This means we are likely to see further acceleration in CPI inflation. 3.8% CPI inflation in April 2026 is not the end of it

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 12/05/2026

Gas prices are up! Research (tinyurl.com/34bbeums) shows that when gas prices fall and American households save $1, that dollar is spent elsewhere—reflecting MPC=1 from gas savings. I think the reverse likely holds too: an extra $1 spent on gas reduces spending on other things by ≈$1. #EconSky

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 04/05/2026

In 1947, George Kennan quoted a dispatch to US State Dept in 1850s: "A strange superstition prevails among the Russians, that they are destined to conquer the world... they believe that the time is not far distant when the world will be one great Russian Empire." Little has changed #UkrainianView

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

New release from the Michigan Survey of Consumers for March 2026 #Inflation #expectations of household surge. The median 1-year-ahead increased to almost 5%. One-year expected business conditions plunged about 20% More there: www.sca.isr.umich.edu

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 01/04/2026

Bottom line: American households and firms expecting significantly higher inflation than Fed does. And average Americans are probably right. p.s. FWIW Inflation expectations are ahead of schedule relative to the 1970s

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 01/04/2026

Our core argument: the surge in energy prices from the war in Iran will not only raise inflation directly through the usual channels but will also trigger a sharp rise in inflation expectations.

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 01/04/2026

New EMPCT opinion piece with Olivier Coibion on the #inflation outlook. As shown in the figure below, the current inflation trajectory is strikingly reminiscent of the late 1970s — and the implications are concerning. #EconSky #oil #oilprice #gasoline More here: tinyurl.com/ycym769x

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 24/03/2026

You can buy it from the publisher too! With a 30% discount. The code is P329

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 24/03/2026

Our book is finally here!! Oli Coibion @empctmacrotx.bsky.social & me with our advance copies Grateful to everyone who helped along the way—colleagues, students, coauthors, & early readers who shaped the project at every stage Official release tomorrow! tinyurl.com/385ak89u #EconSky

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 07/03/2026

US solution to oil shortages now? Unsanction Russian oil! Terrible decision #Ukraine #UkrainianView

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 28/02/2026

Iranian drone hits a high rise in Bahrain Russia uses the same drones to attack #Ukraine every day and does the same hits of residential buildings in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odessa, Drinpro and many other cities

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 28/02/2026

Zelensky: "RUS used 57K+ Shahed strike drones against #Ukraine. UKR never threatened Iran, but the Iranian regime chose to be an accomplice for Putin& supplied him with Shaheds(drones&technology).It is fair to give the Iranian people a chance to get rid of the terrorist regime" tinyurl.com/3c9p2ha7

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 24/02/2026

UN GA vote on “Support for lasting peace in #Ukraine” USA abstained. What a shame!

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 24/02/2026

On Feb 24, 2022, my nephew (he was 7 years old at the time) wrote in his diary: "This night Russia attacked Ukraine and Kyiv too." #Ukraine #StandWithUkraine

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 21/02/2026

Campanile @ucberkeleyofficial.bsky.social will participate in "Call For Freedom" to commemorate 4 years of Ukrainian Bravery. Come & listen! Thanks to Max Zubkov (www.maksymzubkov.info/my-ukraine) and UCB Borsch club #UkrainianView #Berkeley #Ukraine

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 07/02/2026

This cartoon is titled "Aid to #Ukraine" A picture is worth a thousand words #UkrainianView

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 05/02/2026

“As of late January 2026, the RUS campaign of large-scale strikes on UKR energy & efforts to plunge the population into darkness&cold haven'thad a significant impact on public moods” RUS attacks (=war crimes) harden UKR resolve => war will go on #UkrainianView More: www.ft.com/content/5321...

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 31/01/2026

Today Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to be the next chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve Today U.S. Department of Justice released a new batch of Epstein files. Name "Kevin Warsh" is in one of the files www.justice.gov/epstein/file...

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 25/01/2026

On 1/22/2014, Yanykovych's thugs killed 3 people at the Maidan protest. The gov't lied... Protests continued anyway. On Feb 20, they shot many more people. But Yanukovych&his mafia state were deposed. The slain activists are known in #Ukraine as the Heavenly Hundred. This was 12 years ago

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 06/01/2026

Another key issue for UKR: debt overhang. Public debt is >100% of GDP. There has to be massive write-off/restructuring. If this is not done, public debt can weigh heavily on UKR economic growth.

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 06/01/2026

One hope that post-war Ukraine can have a higher saving rate (~20%), similar to what happened in W. Europe after World War II but it can take some time before we get there while $ is needed immediately.

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 06/01/2026

The composition of inflows into countries is very different Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and other war affected countries rely on remittances Poland, Hungary, Czechia, etc. rely on FDI and EU structural funds

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 06/01/2026

In recent years, Ukraine relied a lot more on remittances but these are not FDI. Remittances often finance consumption; they do not give the same tech transfer, integration in global value chains, etc.

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 06/01/2026

another big difference is the official funds for Ukraine vs. EU members. Even if we ignore EU structural funds (which are huge), the per-accession EU flows into POL, HUN, etc. were much larger than flows into Ukraine. EU viewed UKR as not a part of Europe ... but the RUS sphere of influence

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 06/01/2026

An important source of differences in capital accumulation was the low flow of FDI into Ukraine

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 06/01/2026

It is stunning how much capital stock in Ukraine decreased after 1991 while new EU members increased it dramatically. This contributed to the stagnation of income in Ukraine.

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 15/07/2025

RE Trump's talk to impose sanctions on countries importing Russian oil/gas: The Hall of Shame is public knowledge: China, India, Turkey, Singapore, Egypt, Brazil. #UkrainianView

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 31/05/2025

Czech President Petr Pavel opened the 2 annual Discussion Forum (Global&European Challenges for Security&Economic Policy) organized by #CERGE-EI A lively discussion on today’s most pressing security/econ issues, with a focus on #Europe & the sense of urgency in a shifting geopolitical landscape.

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